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[ChoklitCow]

Has there ever been any demographic research released for console and PC gamers? I think it would be interesting to compare SES, race, family status, age, education, etc. with video game owners.

It might be purely anecdotal from my perspective, but it feels like 360 users held on longer than other console users this gen and this fall they are transitioning beyond just the price. Everyone says Price is King, but to me it doesn't feel like that is the ONLY thing.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Yes, I misunderstood your assertion and edited. I apologize.

No problem.

Reading comprehension it was then.
They don't need each other to stay competitive. Sure the consoles are selling great. For now. So are more people chaining themselves to the devaluing of software and ignoring consoles at the same time. That thinking that still rationalises as it was pre-Apple is just wrong. Faux pas or not we are always underestimating it. Even if MS is the only one left to compete with no other console out there they wouldn't slow down their aggressiveness. The casual market would never come. Well perhaps if shit was $200.

Spoiler

PS. Ms is like the 30-something largest company in the world. Apple is like 15-20(just looking at profits, looking at the war chest neither makes it in the top 100). Learn Chinese people. it'll be good when your grand kids need to learn it in school.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...exxon-as-2nd-biggest-company-on-oil-drop.html

Microsoft's the second largest company in the world and their warchest is gigantic.

We've seen complacent Microsoft and Sony do in fact exist without competition so I'm not sure what you're basing your argument on.

 

[Mooreberg]

Reading comprehension it was then.
They don't need each other to stay competitive. Sure the consoles are selling great. For now. So are more people chaining themselves to the devaluing of software and ignoring consoles at the same time. That thinking that still rationalises as it was pre-Apple is just wrong. Faux pas or not we are always underestimating it. Even if MS is the only one left to compete with no other console out there they wouldn't slow down their aggressiveness. The casual market would never come. Well perhaps if shit was $200.

Spoiler

PS. Ms is like the 30-something largest company in the world. Apple is like 15-20(just looking at profits, looking at the war chest neither makes it in the top 100). Learn Chinese people. it'll be good when your grand kids need to learn it in school.

Apple and Microsoft are #1 and #2 if you are talking market cap. If you're talking about something else like asset value, it is probably some Saudi Arabian oil company that isn't listed in western public markets.

But yeah, price drops would have to come eventually if only because investors would not tolerate YoY declines. Where things would suffer is innovation in the associated services. You'd still be paying $59.99 annually to play games online, without any free monthly downloads or digital store discounts.

Has there ever been any demographic research released for console and PC gamers? I think it would be interesting to compare SES, race, family status, age, education, etc. with video game owners.

It might be purely anecdotal from my perspective, but it feels like 360 users held on longer than other console users this gen and this fall they are transitioning beyond just the price. Everyone says Price is King, but to me it doesn't feel like that is the ONLY thing.

If the sales breakdown on Advanced Warfare is accurate, many of them are still holding out because they are still single franchise consumers in terms of what they will reliably spend $60 on. I'm not sure if anyone is in a rush to scoop them up, because people who buy a system, an online subscription and one game at full price are not as lucrative as the "migratory" players that jump from game to game. The type of people who bought a ton of PS2 games and a lot of 360 games are what Sony and Microsoft should want right now, because their third party licensing fee revenue will be healthy. I cannot imagine Microsoft would be thrilled with somebody getting an Xbox One at a steep discount right now and only playing Advanced Warfare or Destiny for the next year.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Which is why I said attachment rate so much.

A console that has sold a 1000 consoles with 3 games each isn't going to be doing as well as a console that has sold 700 console with 6 games each.(for the sake of this lets just say they make the same off of all the commissions and each console sale.)

Seems like you're just bouncing all over the place.

The fact of the matter is we don't even know if 349 is a permanent price point yet. We know that both Microsoft and Sony avoided selling consoles at a big loss during launch for the first time I've been around to witness it. This shows they are no longer comfortable with losing money on hardware even at the very start of a generation let alone 1, 2, 3 years into one.

I'm supposed to believe Microsoft would be fine with eating losses on each system sold for an extended period of time? In the name of what? Console wars? The reality is they have certain targets they would like to hit and as long as they can hit those targets they don't care if they win or lose. That's why Sony isn't losing their minds over losing November, they probably moved the amount of systems they desired to. Microsoft was probably worried sales were too slow and 10 million by year's end was in doubt so they responded.

 

[AniHawk]

Nintendo's problem is that too many of the customers viewed what they were paying $29 to $49 for on the Wii as easily replaced by inexpensive or free mobile games. If stuff like Super Mario Galaxy were the best selling Wii games, they'd be having an easier time selling the Wii U with its current software lineup.

an audience leaving to find more of what made a platform successful doesn't mean the platform wasn't successful. nintendo brought in new gamers to the market and in turn those gamers went to a new market where their needs were better met. there's a big attempt to color the wii's success like it didn't happen when it wound up as sort of a precursor to the current schism between the traditional market and a new, rapidly growing one.

i think nintendo's problem was more about not understanding why those customers were there in the first place. everything they've done since 2010 indicates to me they really didn't understand the audience they gained.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Seems like you're just bouncing all over the place.

The fact of the matter is we don't even know if 349 is a permanent price point yet. We know that both Microsoft and Sony avoided selling consoles at a big loss during launch for the first time I've been around to witness it. This shows they are no longer comfortable with losing money on hardware even at the very start of a generation let alone 1, 2, 3 years into one.

I'm supposed to believe Microsoft would be fine with eating losses on each system sold for an extended period of time? In the name of what? Console wars? The reality is they have certain targets they would like to hit and as long as they can hit those targets they don't care if they win or lose. That's why Sony isn't losing their minds over losing November, they probably moved the amount of systems they desired to. Microsoft was probably worried sales were too slow and 10 million by years end was in doubt so they responded.

How do you know they are eating any kind of sizable loss on the Xbox One?

They launched with the Kinect while making profit, they said before launch that they were actively working on making it cheaper to produce the console and that as it became cheaper to produce that it would also lower in price. Now that it's sans Kinect, which was quoted to cost near the same amount as the actual console, I don't see how a drop of $50 is going to hurt them that much.

There is never a such thing as desiring to move a certain amount of consoles you always want to sell as much as you possibly can. Of course there are supply restraints at times but this is just how the industry works you can only produce so many and you have to choose where to invest your stock.

 

[Faustek]

We've seen complacent Microsoft and Sony do in fact exist without competition so I'm not sure what you're basing your argument on.

Again, forgive the faux pas but I'm basing it on Apple. The casual market for games are flocking to them. The casual market that the consoles needs to survive.

Apple and Microsoft are #1 and #2 if you are talking market cap. If you're talking about something else like asset value, it is probably some Saudi Arabian oil company that isn't listed in western public markets.

But yeah, price drops would have to come eventually if only because investors would not tolerate YoY declines. Where things would suffer is innovation in the associated services. You'd still be paying $59.99 annually to play games online, without any free monthly downloads or digital store discounts.

Yes, they are 1 and 2 in perceived market value. Counting profits Apple is in the bottom of the top 5 and MS in the low tens but for warchests? They aren't even close to enter the top 100.

 

[Brad Grenz]

As Microsoft has said "It's a Marathon not a Sprint" and this very much true in regards to the PS4. XboxOne has shortened the gap but in doing so are sprinting for a short while in a Marathon, it will help them in the short run but over the course of every other Month PS4 is going to continue to sell well. Microsoft can't keep doing these insane bundles this was a chance for Microsoft to shout up and down to get in the mind of the Consumer Base and gain more traction, while Sony has the luxury of Slow dripping bundles or hell even a permanent Price drop.

Taking a holistic view they haven't even shortened the gap, only reduced the rate at which it grew worldwide.

PS4 was worldwide shipments as well.

All reported sales figures in IR documents are always sell-in. Sony only estimates worldwide sell-through.

XB1 was 10 milion "soon"
PS4 was 13.5 million as of 30th September

The "soon" muddies the timing.

The PS4 figure was shipped, but it was from two months before the "not quite 10M yet" claim from MS. Including their holiday shipments will probably add another 4-6M PS4s.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Again, forgive the faux pas but I'm basing it on Apple. The casual market for games are flocking to them. The casual market that the consoles needs to survive.



Yes, they are 1 and 2 in perceived market value. Counting profits Apple is in the bottom of the top 5 and MS in the low tens but for warchests? They aren't even close to enter the top 100.

Profits is a silly metric to try and base the size of a company on, Microsoft invests a huge amount of money in R&D and other ventures.

You could at the very least compare revenues.

 

[le-seb]

How do you know they are eating any kind of sizable loss on the Xbox One?

They launched with the Kinect while making profit, they said before launch that they were actively working on making it cheaper to produce the console and that as it became cheaper to produce that it would also lower in price. Now that it's sans Kinect, which was quoted to cost near the same amount as the actual console, I don't see how a drop of $50 is going to hurt them that much.

From this article discussing the BOM of each console:

The parts used to assemble the console itself — not including the Kinect, the controller or anything else — cost $332, Rassweiler estimated, meaning that the other items add about $139 to the cost. The controller costs about $15, and contains Wi-Fi and Bluetooth components from Marvell Technology.

You cannot realistically expect the costs to have dropped significantly under the estimated $332 from last year (not including the controller), and still, MS has been selling its console for two peanuts this BF.
It would be extremely surprising they aren't taking a loss.

 

[Brad Grenz]

How do you know they are eating any kind of sizable loss on the Xbox One?

Because they sold over a million units at a wholesale price to them that had to be well under $280, far below any reasonable, current cost estimate for the hardware?

 

[Mooreberg]

an audience leaving to find more of what made a platform successful doesn't mean the platform wasn't successful. nintendo brought in new gamers to the market and in turn those gamers went to a new market where their needs were better met. there's a big attempt to color the wii's success like it didn't happen when it wound up as sort of a precursor to the current schism between the traditional market and a new, rapidly growing one.

i think nintendo's problem was more about not understanding why those customers were there in the first place. everything they've done since 2010 indicates to me they really didn't understand the audience they gained.

That is why I said the Wii was the unambiguous winner of last generation. But the problem I see is that Nintendo has had the tables turned on them. In 2007, Microsoft had a banner year for publishing great content, but they still got steamrolled in hardware sales. This year, very few people would argue against the idea that Wii U had the highest quality stable of exclusives. This was a pretty lousy year of publishing from both Sony and Microsoft (one or two successes each, a few bombs, and continual PR nightmares from botched launches).

The common factor seems to be, for lack of a less profane phrase, that a lot of people simply do not give a shit. What Nintendo failed to realize is that (what is starting to look like) 80% of those people were not there for the average quality level of Nintendo's output. The grasp on these people was always going to be tenuous because there is no real way for Nintendo to compete with how cheap phones are on contract, and how inexpensive a lot of the software is. Whether or not Nintendo is right to not enter the "race to the bottom" I don't know (I have to imagine they are making the right decision long term), but they were perhaps a bit confused as to why they had those customers in the first place.

edit - also, how exactly does somebody quantify how many new console gamers Nintendo brought in when the Wii ended up about fifty million units short of PS2's global sales? The DS argument is infallible because it completely blew past what Gameboy Advance sold.

 

[FordGTGuy]

From this article discussing the BOM of each console:

You cannot realistically expect the costs to have dropped significantly under the estimated $332 from last year (not including the controller), and still, MS has been selling its console for two peanuts this BF.
It would be extremely surprising they aren't taking a loss.

The most expensive part of the console is the SoC which is a very custom job and I would say very hard to put a price on without inside information.

I don't see how you can realistically gauge what Microsoft is paying for these parts in mass with a part by part breakdown in prices based on guesses.

Because they sold over a million units at a wholesale price to them that had to be well under $280, far below any reasonable, current cost estimate for the hardware?

Exactly how do you know? We don't have any real numbers on this.

What we do know.

1) The Xbox One has sold at a profit since launch.

2) Microsoft has been actively working on lowering the price to produce the Xbox One since launch.

3) The Xbox Ones that sold at $350 did so without the Kinect which was a big part of the cost of the original console.

In the end it doesn't matter because it's about the market share and not about making money on the console.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

How do you know they are eating any kind of sizable loss on the Xbox One?

They launched with the Kinect while making profit, they said before launch that they were actively working on making it cheaper to produce the console and that as it became cheaper to produce that it would also lower in price. Now that it's sans Kinect, which was quoted to cost near the same amount as the actual console, I don't see how a drop of $50 is going to hurt them that much.

There is never a such thing as desiring to move a certain amount of consoles you always want to sell as much as you possibly can. Of course there are supply restraints at times but this is just how the industry works you can only produce so many and you have to choose where to invest your stock.

In the interest of not writing lots of stuff that has already been said here's at least on post http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=143238502&postcount=7929

How do we know they're not taking losses? Nobody knows for sure. I find it hard to believe they weren't taking some kind of loss on those bundles that's for sure.

There are always targets and forecasts. You can't just produce consoles you don't expect to sell in a timely manner.

 

[Faustek]

You could at the very least compare revenues.

When one say "largest" one counts everything. Assets, revenue and profits.
Fact of the matter is they are doing great but on the whole they are small fish in a big world.
But this world has it's islands where they can be king of their own little well. Thing is, Apples well is overflowing and overtaking everything that hasn't built massive flood walls.

 

[FordGTGuy]

In the interest of not writing lots of stuff that has already been said here's at least on post http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=143238502&postcount=7929

How do we know they're not taking losses? Nobody knows for sure. I find it hard to believe they weren't taking some kind of loss on those bundles that's for sure.

There are always targets and forecasts. You can't just produce consoles you don't expect to sell in a timely manner.

If you're argument is that they are taking huge losses I would say that based on all evidence this is wrong. Any losses they are taking is completely irrelevant to the market share they are gaining.

I just said that about production but don't make it sound like Sony sold what they wanted to sell, they wanted to sell as many as they possibly could.

When one say "largest" one counts everything. Assets, revenue and profits.
Fact of the matter is they are doing great but on the whole they are small fish in a big world.
But this world has it's islands where they can be king of their own little well. Thing is, Apples well is overflowing and overtaking everything that hasn't built massive flood walls.

Sony might be a small fish in the tech industry but Microsoft is far from it. Apple has done nothing more than continue to deflate froma completely over inflated market cap.

Apples biggest seller is now fighting a losing battle against Android.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

If you're argument is that they are taking huge losses I would say that based on all evidence this is wrong. Any losses they are taking is completely irrelevant to the market share they are gaining.

I just said that about production but don't make it sound like Sony sold what they wanted to sell, they wanted to sell as many as they possibly could.

Not much evidence out there either way so without knowing the exact details how could one then assume the losses are completely irrelevant to the market share they are gaining. Unless you've run the numbers we don't know.

Not sure what that second part is even about. Sony didn't sell what they wanted to sell? What?

 

[le-seb]

The most expensive part of the console is the SoC which is a very custom job and I would say very hard to put a price on without inside information.

I don't see how you can realistically gauge what Microsoft is paying for these parts in mass with a part by part breakdown in prices based on guesses.

I would argue that the analysts making these estimations have very good knowledge of this business.
Also, they're not taking licensing costs into question, so the fact it's a custom job is pretty irrelevant here.
What's taken into account here is the size of the die.

 

[StealthGoblin]

There aren't enough big releases to offer bundles year round including them. Unity won't be a "big" title come January, and the next known title which is big enough to move consoles en masse is probably Battlefield in March, and that's assuming MS can get the greenlight on a bundle.

Sony have exclusive marketing and bundling deals for battlefield.
So for next year they'll have bundles and marketing for battlefield, Bloodborne, the order, uncharted, Arkham knight and probably metal gear solid.

As well as their unrevealed games.

Microsoft have evolve, cod, halo, quantum break and forza 6.

 

[Raist]

Totally possible. I reached my estimation by taking the shipments given last quarter and then adding on an appropriate amount given what we know about the holidays so far.

Such estimations are decent (I'm taking 9 months of real sales and then fudging another 2), but are definitely prone to error, and it's totally possible to be off by a million. I'd split the difference and say 9M, maybe. I don't know. We're within 10% or so, which is about as good as we're going to get right now.

It would mean that it sold pretty much the same amount in the rest of the world than in the US. Chances of that happening is pretty much 0.

 

[Mooreberg]

I think people are getting the market share aspect twisted. GBA had higher market share for its respective hardware cycle than DS did. Which system do you think Nintendo considers to be more successful? If Microsoft closes the gap in market share percentage, but Sony remains happy with what PS4 is selling in absolute unit terms, they are not going change very much in the short term. I'm not sure who outside of Sony could claim to know what their quarterly expectations are for PS4, but they don't seem to be in much of a panic to throw another bundle (or lower priced bundle) together for December. It seems like they have settled on Microsoft selling more for two months being less critical than maintaining ASP.

They could be right, they could just as easily be wrong. My guess is they see the relative lack of output from Microsoft for January through May and expect to start outselling Xbox One again through the first half of the year. They probably do not want a snowball effect where people expect the PS4 to be less expensive for several months prior to E3 simply because of a temporary price cut during the holidays. What Microsoft actually ends up doing with pricing in January is what will make this interesting.

 

[IndoAssassin]

December: Microsoft wins narrowing the gap to about 500k
January-May: Sony wins all these widening the gap to about 1M again. MS will stay at $349 bundling other game (Evolve?!)
June: MS drops XB1 to $299, Sony follows suit. Maybe a tie
July-October: PS4 sells shitloads for summer standards, XB1 sells OK
November/December: MS bundles Halo 5 and MCC at $249 ($229 BF) also RotTR at $249, Sony bundles UC4 at $299, sales roughly tie for Nov/Dec (maybe small MS victories depending on size of kitchen sink).
End of 2015: PS4 leads by ca. 1M-1.5M

Bloodborne is a niche title, The Order is generating a lot of negativity and Sony's poor job at marketing their games won't help.

I doubt PS4 takes a million lead again. This holiday MS has generated some momentum, if price stays at $350, the X1 won't be outsold that greatly, and may even outsell PS4 when the PS4 has no exclusives.

 

[Faustek]

Sony might be a small fish in the tech industry but Microsoft is far from it. Apple has done nothing more than continue to deflate froma completely over inflated market cap.

Apples biggest seller is now being fighting losing battle against Android.

I will use the term smartphone instead of Apple, reason for using Apple is because it's the most *common* brand(really I should have said iPhone).

We, the consumers, don't need Sony and Microsoft to compete with each other.
If they become complacent again the largest part of the market will not buy into their consoles(casuals). They already have a gaming device(which I detest) in their pockets 24/7, that smartphone. They don't need to pay $60 for a game. They get them for free.

Spoiler

(Fuck, if they have to pay for DLC or games they seem to rave.)

Sure we've seen a decline in hardware this year for Apple but no such thing on their Appstore, yet. Play Store does not have the same revenue, yet. So everyone who reasons that the first quote was needed has narrowed their world view where Only Playstation, Xbox and Nintendo exists aren't in this reality.

If Nintendo/Sony just stops to exist tomorrow Xbox strategy would not change on a competitive basis. They would still have Steam/Smartphones/Whatnot tearing into them and they would die a slow death if the became complacent.

Sony has done good in catching the smaller developers for their systems so that even the ones not of the core can jump in. MS not so much. On the other hand MS has this last month done good* on the price for the casual market to start peeking at it and probably some bought it.


*If they trapped themselves in the sales trap thanks to these 2 months we will see in come next quarter.

Ps. I still don't like the fact that everyone is screaming for cheaper consoles. Go buy a Ouya and tell me if it was cheap enough.

 

[Taker34]

Bloodborne is a niche title, The Order is generating a lot of negativity and Sony's poor job at marketing their games won't help.

I doubt PS4 takes a million lead again. This holiday MS has generated some momentum, if price stays at $350, the X1 won't be outsold that greatly, and may even outsell PS4 when the PS4 has no exclusives.

You forgot the /s, right? Right?!?

 

[Faustek]

You forgot the /s, right? Right?!?

Meh, Dark Souls 2 sold like 2 pumpkins and now when it went away and become an exclusive again it will only sell 2 potatoes.

 

[Mooreberg]

You forgot the /s, right? Right?!?

The weird thing is, I'm trying to think of what Microsoft is publishing in the early months of next year, and nothing is coming to mind. The way they would beat Sony for those months is to continue bundling retail releases with the system for $349. I've already mentioned I think Halo MCC could be a candidate because I'm not seeing how it does better than #9 in subsequent months with the bad word of mouth. Maybe they get it fixed up, toss it in with the system, and simultaneously sell more hardware while building the anticipation level for Halo 5. I guess they could do an Evolve bundle in February but... ah... not sure what impact that game is going to have on consoles.

 

[Miles X]

I really don't know the outcome in the US, but WW I think the ps4 will totally obliterate xbone one, past 2:1.

Not happening. Japan is dead and the rest of the world doesn't outweight UK/US/Canada.

 

[quetz67]

Bloodborne is a niche title, The Order is generating a lot of negativity and Sony's poor job at marketing their games won't help.

Souls series is beyond niche and will sell to the hardcore. They will probably avoid the Order, but that will sell to the casuals, who don't care about the negativity concerning gameplay. Both will sell very well, we'll see how many systems they move.

 

[Birgitte2004]

1) The Xbox One has sold at a profit since launch.

2) Microsoft has been actively working on lowering the price to produce the Xbox One since launch.

3) The Xbox Ones that sold at $350 did so without the Kinect which was a big part of the cost of the original console.

In the end it doesn't matter because it's about the market share and not about making money on the console.

We do not know #1 or #3 at all, unless you have facts that you aren't sharing with others.

It probably sold at a profit at launch, but that's all we can say unless you have links and other information supporting your claims.

 

[Pennywise83]

Souls series is beyond niche and will sell to the hardcore. They will probably avoid the Order, but that will sell to the casuals, who don't care about the negativity concerning gameplay. Both will sell very well, we'll see how many systems they move.

Bloodborne's impact won't be much different than Infamous'.

 

[quetz67]

Not happening. Japan is dead and the rest of the world doesn't outweight UK/US/Canada.

What?

Japan just starts buying PS4 as slowly the games are coming. But it is only the beginning.

UK, we'll see, XB1 just sold because of insane deals they can't keep forever.

Continental Europe is beyond 5:1 for Sony and it is not just one more country like the UK.

 

[Xando]

Not happening. Japan is dead and the rest of the world doesn't outweight UK/US/Canada.

Funny, Germany alone almost outweighs the UK and it's almost only PS4 with a little bit Wii U.

 

[Miles X]

What?

Japan just starts buying PS4 as slowly the games are coming. But it is only the beginning.

UK, we'll see, XB1 just sold because of insane deals they can't keep forever.

Continental Europe is beyond 5:1 for Sony and it is not just one more country like the UK.

It still doesn't outweight UK/US as a whole, those 2 markets make up well over 50% of the industry now, especially as Japan has fallen. PS4 will be very lucky to reach 5m lifetime in Japan.

Funny, Germany alone almost outweighs the UK and it's almost only PS4 with a little bit Wii U.

Because of PC, nothing else.

 

[thekiddfran]

Bloodborne is a niche title, The Order is generating a lot of negativity and Sony's poor job at marketing their games won't help.

I doubt PS4 takes a million lead again. This holiday MS has generated some momentum, if price stays at $350, the X1 won't be outsold that greatly, and may even outsell PS4 when the PS4 has no exclusives.

Ha what?

 

[Birgitte2004]

It still doesn't outweight UK/US as a whole, those 2 markets make up well over 50% of the industry now, especially as Japan has fallen. PS4 will be very lucky to reach 5m lifetime in Japan.

I think you are confusing what the Xbox 360 did with the industry as a whole.

The PS3 nearly matches the Xbox 360 in lifetime sales and gets no where near 50% of its sales from US/UK.

The PS3 doesn't even get to 50% from US/UK/Japan.

 

[Faustek]

Not happening. Japan is dead and the rest of the world doesn't outweight UK/US/Canada.

........「(°ヘ°)

Sony sold/shipped/whatever 75% of their PS3 outside of US, removing Japan from the equation leaves it at ~50mil outside of the US still. If the PS3 numbers for Uk that were posted earlier are correct it still leaves 45mil outside of US and UK...

Nah I'll come back later when the thread isn't this weird.

Btw, someone beat Gamestop until they release their exclusive sales numbers please.

 

[Xando]

Because of PC, nothing else.

No, PS4 sold 1 million a month or two after the UK. Sonys latest forecast sees the market transitioning from PC to console this gen and guess what MS completely abandoned the market and PS4 is the fastest selling console ever. ( about 6 months quicker than PS2).

MS doesn't have 20-30% marketshare anymore they'd be lucky if they have 15%.

 

[shinra-bansho]

They have around $90 billion dollars sitting in Europe with nothing to do but burn through it and compared to Sony this is limitless. Them buying Minecraft for $2 billion with this money definitely shows that they are willing to spend it on whatever they want.

This money is from their profits outside of the US so it's only getting bigger. There is a reason they are building so many data centers outside of the US and this warchest is that reason.

I don't really know why Sony even enters into this point of discussion. Microsoft having $90B doesn't equate to the Xbox division having access to anywhere near that amount of capital to spend at will. Any assertions towards such are simply nonsensical.

Cash isn't there to burn, it's there to make investments to generate a return for and/or to return directly to investors. And Microsoft have much bigger fish to contend with in other higher growth markets as already pointed out by Opiate.

There will be constraints limiting the extent of what the division can and can't do and how much of an impact it can have on Microsoft's financial position, especially given it's comparatively less significant strategic importance and potential for growth than other product areas.

 

[Miles X]

I think you are confusing what the Xbox 360 did with the industry as a whole.

The PS3 nearly matches the Xbox 360 in lifetime sales and gets no where near 50% of its sales from US/UK.

The PS3 doesn't even get to 50% from US/UK/Japan.

Do the math and you get US/UK 50% so far this gen. (assuming LTD's end of this year WW and in US, not too difficult to work out at this point tho).

No, PS4 sold 1 million a month or two after the UK. Sonys latest forecast sees the market transitioning from PC to console this gen and guess what MS completely abandoned the market and PS4 is the fastest selling console ever. (quicker about 6 months than PS2).

MS doesn't have 20-30% marketshare anymore they'd be lucky if they have 15%.

So PS4 Germany is behind Germany UK, and XB1 Germany is obviously miles behind UK XB1, so how do you arrive at it being bigger?

 

[Miles X]

Delete

 

[Xando]

So PS4 Germany is behind Germany UK, and XB1 Germany is obviously miles behind UK XB1, so how do you arrive at it being bigger?

I've never said it's bigger, i've said it almost as big as the UK market for Sony. This focus on UK/US makes sense for MS(somewhat 60-70% of their sales) but not for Sony where it's only ~50%.

 

[Nightengale]

2-to-1 is feasible, but it's also not necessarily a sure thing.

Let's assume a slightly shorter life cycle. My numbers may be spotty since it's top-of-my-head, so correct me if wrong.

Japan is dead, but realistically speaking 5 million should be feasible for PS4. And on the optimistic side... let's put 500k for XB1.
Let's assume 50:50 for UK (since it's implied Nov was neck-to-neck for PS4/XB1 ) and 70:30 for XB1S4 throughout its entirely of its life. (the Nov split for XB1S4) Taking into account the current lead PS4 has, it'll round up to 40mil :30 mil. As for UK, 5 mil : 5 mil.

As for RotW (not!US/UK/Japan)

Close to 40 million of PS3 sales came from RotW and 24 million for 360. Anecdotal + occasional global updates have suggested that Sony will increase their market share at EMEA, whereas Xbox is likely to reduce theirs. So, Sony's market share at RotW, from 65:35, let's increase it to 70:30. So it comes to around 45 mil : 20 mil for XB1.

My maths above will come out around 85 million PS4s and 65 million XB1s.

And frankly, I think I'm low-balling it for PS4 and being optimistic about XB1's figures. With that being said, US/UK is still a sizable market share that making strong strides there alone can wide up 2:1. (which is the point)

I'd say 1.5-to-1 is pretty much in the bag for Sony though. 2:1 largely depends on how competitive they'll react in US/UK, and how big + sustainable the growth of EMEA are.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Not happening. Japan is dead and the rest of the world doesn't outweight UK/US/Canada.

lmao

Japan is not dead, it still could end up as one of PS4's biggest countries ( at least 5 million) and no.....in the case of Playstation EU outweighs US by itself lol.

 

[sam777]

lmao

Japan is not dead, it still could end up as one of PS4's biggest countries ( at least 5 million) and no.....in the case of Playstation EU outweighs US by itself lol.

Have you been looking at the Japanese figures for consoles sold or did just assume it will easily sell 5 million.

 

[Nightengale]

Have you been looking at the Japanese figures for consoles sold or did just assume it will easily sell 5 million.

My 'guesstimate' is based on some broad assumptions.

No!gaems + loyal PS fanbase will have pushed close to 1 million PS4s in Japan by end of the year.

If we look at the historical sales of the best selling Japanese franchises that will come to PS4, and assume some overlap between some IPs, and have a lower expectation of their overall sales, (say by 50%), what's announced for PS4 as a whole should at least 'move systems' for 1 million user base. (and I'm talking FF+DQ+MGSV+etc)

As more western games become fully exclusive, stuff like GTAVI, Battlefield, CoD, and the combination of the western IPs that still do well on PS3... maybe another 500k.

Price-drop to a more competitive pricing, another 500k.

Purely on economics, if PS4 can't get 3 million by all the above. Then console gaming truly is dead. And that additional 2 million is basically optimism that as more games come out, sales will gradually grow, even without all the 'push factors' above.

 

[DrM]

Germany is Sony's most important mainland Europe market, followed by France, Spain and Italy.

 

[Prine]

Funny, Germany alone almost outweighs the UK and it's almost only PS4 with a little bit Wii U.

Not sure that's the case, and isn't most of that from PC ? Do we have last years MVC/GFK breakdown.

 

[Usobuko]

With such a mess of a launch the Xbox One was, getting tied 50-50 LTD in America shouldn't be what Sony is seeking. In the end, it's nicer to say in PR that the PS4 outsell Xbox One in all regions, decisively, rather than using the word most and solely missing what is the biggest market for consoles.

 

[Nightengale]

Not sure that's the case, and isn't most of that from PC ? Do we have last years MVC/GFK breakdown.

It's not 'yet' the case, but Germany's adoption of PS4 is pretty damn close to UK's adoption. As House said, it's unexpectedly Sony's second biggest European market now.

The total console market size for Germany is still smaller than UK by a fair margin, but that's because Germany's market share is lopsidedly in PS4's favour.

 

[Xando]

Not sure that's the case, and isn't most of that from PC ? Do we have last years MVC/GFK breakdown.

Maybe my post was poorly worded. I meant the GER market is almost as big as the UK market for Sony.


Also comparing revenue the console market makes most of the money.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=139454887&postcount=203

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=139456615&postcount=212