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US NPD August 2021

mejin

Member
Traditional gaming is already dead, only Nintendo is still a "traditional" console business. Sony and MS already make most of their money via subscriptions and MTX.

I put all the context in my post, you don't need to single out.

Sony and MS have clearly different strategies right now. I'm not saying if it's good or bad, not judging any merit.
 

Dabaus

Banned
Can we have an honest discussion about xbox and their gamepass strategy?

Like, their dead last in hardware sales in their BEST region
Sony and Nintendo first party are like 50 percent of all games sold
Psychonauts, despite a big push with good review scores fails to chart even in the top 20
In countries where we get sales splits its something like 80:20 in favor of ps5.
Halo is coming hot and weve yet to see updated campaign footage since last year
Their 2022 looks dire and that assuming starfield doesnt get a delay while sony and nintendo have their heavy hitters coming 2022

Is this strategy working?
 
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reksveks

Member
Can we have an honest discussion about xbox and their gamepass strategy?

Is this strategy working?

Probably need to look at quarterly global revenues for each platform holder YoY and maybe over multiple years.

I think it's too early to tell also think the UK physical sales chart are a bit useless. I did the maths on what percentage of software sales it was and its something like 18-20%.

I also think you need to define 'success'. Not every company can be number one in a particular vertical but it doesn't make number two unsuccessful.
 
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Can we have an honest discussion about xbox and their gamepass strategy?

Like, their dead last in hardware sales in their BEST region
Sony and Nintendo first party are like 50 percent of all games sold
Psychonauts, despite a big push with good review scores fails to chart even in the top 20
In countries where we get sales splits its something like 80:20 in favor of ps5.
Halo is coming hot and weve yet to see updated campaign footage since last year
Their 2022 looks dire and that assuming starfield doesnt get a delay while sony and nintendo have their heavy hitters coming 2022

Is this strategy working?
judy garland dorothy GIF
 

Dabaus

Banned
Probably need to look at quarterly global revenues for each platform holder YoY and maybe over multiple years.

I think it's too early to tell also think the UK physical sales chart are a bit useless. I did the maths on what percentage of software sales it was and its something like 18-20%.

I also think you need to define 'success'. Not every company can be number one in a particular vertical but it doesn't make number two unsuccessful.
If selling hardware and software arent measures of success in the games industry, then what is? We havent had an official update on gamepass subscriptions since they said 18 million almost a year ago.
 

reksveks

Member
If selling hardware and software arent measures of success in the games industry, then what is? We havent had an official update on gamepass subscriptions since they said 18 million almost a year ago.

It's like you didn't read the sentence. Remember mtx/dlc also counts as software. What are you defining as success?

Selling hardware and software can be split into many ways
- selling more hardware and software than last year
- selling more hardware and software than anyone else
- selling more hardware and software relative to the market growth.
 
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Hari Seldon

Member
Psychonauts was never ever ever going to sell. At no point did anyone alive say "I'm going to chill and drink some beer and watch 20 hours of Tim Burton movies" which is what psychonauts is.
 

Dabaus

Banned
It's like you didn't read the sentence. Remember mtx/dlc also counts as software. What are you defining as success?

Selling hardware and software can be split into many ways
- selling more hardware and software than last year
- selling more hardware and software than anyone else
- selling more hardware and software relative to the market growth.
As for the bolded, Xbox doesnt exist a vacuum where everyone is just waiting around for them to get their act together. As for the other 2 points only sony and nintendo can be applied.
 

Vagswarm

Member
Psychonauts was never ever ever going to sell.
That's what I thought. What were people expecting? Those games are very niche, with a cult-like following. Just looking at Wiki for the original:

"...leading to severe financial loss for Majesco and their departure from the video game market; the title was considered a commercial failure."

It even won the award for Best Game No One Played
 
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onesvenus

Member
Can we have an honest discussion about xbox and their gamepass strategy?
Let's do this
Like, their dead last in hardware sales in their BEST region
Were you expecting to beat the PS5 or the Switch? Seeing how Xbox One sold I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be the best selling hardware after a really bad generation. Having said that, I can see them wanting to claim most hardware sold for a given month in the states when Xbox Game Studios start releasing their games. Realistically, I think we can expect maybe some months where Xbox is above PS5 depending on the games but not in total.
Sony and Nintendo first party are like 50 percent of all games sold
Psychonauts, despite a big push with good review scores fails to chart even in the top 20
In countries where we get sales splits its something like 80:20 in favor of ps5.
I know it sounds like an excuse but I don't think we can really make this kind of comparison without taking Gamepass into account. We should be looking at total (sales + subscribers + MTX) numbers instead of only game sales. It's obvious their strategy has shifted from selling games to acquiring Gamepass subscribers.
Halo is coming hot and weve yet to see updated campaign footage since last year
Their 2022 looks dire and that assuming starfield doesnt get a delay while sony and nintendo have their heavy hitters coming 2022
I hope MS has something else planned for 2022 but I wouldn't call Stalker 2, Starfield and Redfall "dire". If they can get some more day 1 on Gamepass 3rd party games like "A plague tale: Requiem" I think they will be great.
 

reksveks

Member
As for the bolded, Xbox doesnt exist a vacuum where everyone is just waiting around for them to get their act together. As for the other 2 points only sony and nintendo can be applied.
I don't think the first one is a smart metric for success and one that Microsoft shareholders or investors would take seriously as you have said it's not in a vacuum but it doesn't mean you have to do absolute comparison between the three. The other two are probably the ones that they would be looking at. I think Microsoft are probably looking at the third one in the short term.

I would probably need to do some investigation again but I remember Sony's growth YoY for the last quarter wasn't as good as Microsoft (not a surprise because Sony had a high base) but that could indicate a successful quarter for Microsoft. I suspect this one will flip (just not a huge amount of consoles and big hitters) but think the quarter afterwards should be stronger given the Horizon and Halo releases.

I am personally interested in both ps+ numbers and GamePass subscriber numbers.
 

Dabaus

Banned
Let's do this

Were you expecting to beat the PS5 or the Switch? Seeing how Xbox One sold I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be the best selling hardware after a really bad generation. Having said that, I can see them wanting to claim most hardware sold for a given month in the states when Xbox Game Studios start releasing their games. Realistically, I think we can expect maybe some months where Xbox is above PS5 depending on the games but not in total.

I know it sounds like an excuse but I don't think we can really make this kind of comparison without taking Gamepass into account. We should be looking at total (sales + subscribers + MTX) numbers instead of only game sales. It's obvious their strategy has shifted from selling games to acquiring Gamepass subscribers.

I hope MS has something else planned for 2022 but I wouldn't call Stalker 2, Starfield and Redfall "dire". If they can get some more day 1 on Gamepass 3rd party games like "A plague tale: Requiem" I think they will be great.

Based off of a relentless propaganda campaign for over a year that 12 teraflops of power was the end all be all of success and the 299 series S to undercut sony on price, Yes i expect more from hardware sales than dead last.

Selling software has been the lifeblood of this industry for over 25 years. Theyre trying to fix what isnt broken and if hardware sales can used a measurement of demand from users, this has yet to make a dent. Third parties arent sitting around waiting for Xbox to figure out if a gamepass model can be succesful for them too. Factor in most of their sales are coming from playstation, who also has the significantly larger installed base and its starting to look ugly.

Stalker 2, Redfall, and Mayybe starfield dont compare to God of war, horizon 2, gran turismo and pokemon and zeld from nintendo.
 
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Dabaus

Banned
I don't think the first one is a smart metric for success and one that Microsoft shareholders or investors would take seriously as you have said it's not in a vacuum but it doesn't mean you have to do absolute comparison between the three. The other two are probably the ones that they would be looking at. I think Microsoft are probably looking at the third one in the short term.

I would probably need to do some investigation again but I remember Sony's growth YoY for the last quarter wasn't as good as Microsoft (not a surprise because Sony had a high base) but that could indicate a successful quarter for Microsoft. I suspect this one will flip (just not a huge amount of consoles and big hitters) but think the quarter afterwards should be stronger given the Horizon and Halo releases.

I am personally interested in both ps+ numbers and GamePass subscriber numbers.
Third parties are absolutely doing comparisons for where they make their money. If xbox isnt selling hardware, and isnt selling software to the extent playstation is, that leaves third parties with a sour taste in their mouth.
 

reksveks

Member
gran turismo
Should also have a new Forza next year imo based on the beta schedules.

I think h1 2022 belongs to Sony, h2 currently belongs to Microsoft however Sony does have the square enix wildcards.

Third parties arent sitting around waiting for Xbox to figure out if a gamepass model can be succesful for them too.
What I found interesting is that fm22 ended up on gamepass day one after coming a bit later last year however this could just be a factor of a bigger check.
 

[Sigma]

Member
Maybe Psychonauts 2 is somewhere in the top 20 psn downloads for August. Or maybe not. Those haven't come out yet, usually they are out about now.
 
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reksveks

Member
Third parties are absolutely doing comparisons for where they make their money. If xbox isnt selling hardware, and isnt selling software to the extent playstation is, that leaves third parties with a sour taste in their mouth.
Only if the cost of developing for xbox is causing a sizable issue in terms of their profit margin. Also they probably prefer having two platform holders fighting for them over one.
 

NahaNago

Member
Can we have an honest discussion about xbox and their gamepass strategy?

Like, their dead last in hardware sales in their BEST region
Sony and Nintendo first party are like 50 percent of all games sold
Psychonauts, despite a big push with good review scores fails to chart even in the top 20
In countries where we get sales splits its something like 80:20 in favor of ps5.
Halo is coming hot and weve yet to see updated campaign footage since last year
Their 2022 looks dire and that assuming starfield doesnt get a delay while sony and nintendo have their heavy hitters coming 2022

Is this strategy working?
The strategy is gamepass. They just can't simply abandon hardware since folks would just move to playstation so they have to sell xbox hardware until folks are comfortable with gamepass on pc and possibly mobile devices

It doesn't matter that much if hardware sales aren't the best as long as gamepass numbers increase.

Psychonauts was barely pushed and unless it was majorly pushed in a Sony conference wasn't going to light up the charts because of gamepass.

The lack of updated campaign footage for halo is odd. Hopefully they do a big push before the game comes out.

Microsoft probably won't have their act together with their first party until 2023 since they still have studios releasing games onto ps5.

Who knows since Microsoft doesn't like to release numbers.
 
The convoluted strategy obviously refers to their day one releases on GP and PC.
  • If a company releases games exclusively on retail and single hardware, it means the company wants to sell more hardware (vs. subscriptions). Examples: Nintendo and PS.
  • If a company releases games exclusively on a subscription service on day one (like GP), it means the company wants to sell more subscriptions (vs. hardware). Examples: Xbox & Netflix (media content).
  • If a game releases on multiple platforms on day one, it means that software sales are the priority, not hardware. Examples: Activision, Take-Two, Ubisoft)
Sony and Nintendo (platform owners) do #1.
Ubisoft, Activision, Take-Two, (software publisher) do #3.
Xbox does #1, #2, and #3 simultaneously -- which is my point.

We don't know what is the most important thing for Xbox? Is it:
  • Console hardware? Then why do they devalue it by releasing their games on PC day one and making them available on xCloud (even mobile devices and refrigerators)
  • Gamepass subscription? Then why do devalue their service and release games on retail?
  • Software sales? Then why do they put games on GP and not release them on all platforms?
No one knows. I don't think Xbox does either.
How does this affect potential customers? All they see is choice and options on how they can consume game content. If they want to sub they can. If they want to buy hardware and physical games they can. If they want to do play on PC they can. If they want to play on the their cell phones they can. All the things MS has done is give their customers flexibility. That isn't a problem at all. Certainly not for customers.

Absolutely. So no need to speculate that MS would rather have Game Pass revenue over actual game sales. We don't know that at all.
Sure we do, they want both. Those things aren't mutually exclusive. MS will take money any way they can hence the multitude of ways you can play their games.

Based off of a relentless propaganda campaign for over a year that 12 teraflops of power was the end all be all of success and the 299 series S to undercut sony on price, Yes i expect more from hardware sales than dead last.

Selling software has been the lifeblood of this industry for over 25 years. Theyre trying to fix what isnt broken and if hardware sales can used a measurement of demand from users, this has yet to make a dent. Third parties arent sitting around waiting for Xbox to figure out if a gamepass model can be succesful for them too. Factor in most of their sales are coming from playstation, who also has the significantly larger installed base and its starting to look ugly.

Stalker 2, Redfall, and Mayybe starfield dont compare to God of war, horizon 2, gran turismo and pokemon and zeld from nintendo.
This doesn't read as someone who is speaking impartially but thinking rationally there was no way MS was going to outsell Sony on hardware especially when Sony is all in on one form of content delivery and MS is selling their games on multiple fronts. Secondly the X1 wasn't very popular, relatively speaking, with its minimal game releases. Still it sold better than the original Xbox. Thinking the XSX|S was going to outsell the Switch after it has been on the market for 5 years clearly isn't rooted in reality. MS isn't just trying to sell the most boxes they have said as much repeatedly.

The movie industry relied on physical media once upon as time as well. Now streaming is the order of the day. Video games are also moving towards digital distribution so MS with Game pass isn't doing anything that wasn't already happening. People continue to forget that all Game pass games can be purchased too with a discount no less. You have also missed the number developers that were quite happy with Game pass seeing how they get their money up front over hoping that their titles will get picked up in a crowded marketplace. The service has allowed people to play games they otherwise would have skipped out entirely. You have no idea how many Xboxes has sold but they have a wider reach than just people who have Xboxes so that isn't a good metric of their success.

Your commentary on the popularity of franchises is totally subjective. Of course many of the titles you mention are decades old vs. newer IP on the Xbox side. Most believe that Forza is a better racer than GT and has been for quite a while. All the platform holders are doing different things and it's time to realize they can all find success carving their own lane. Selling boxes isn't the end all be all for success any longer.
 

Dabaus

Banned
Xbox just posted their most successful year in history didnt they? I could be wrong though.
Their revenue, which isn’t profit, is lumped together with their surface tablets. That’s be like comparing PlayStations revenue of 25 billion for the year AND whatever apple made from IPads the last year together. To give you some context.

Edit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/269914/apples-global-revenue-from-ipad-sales-by-quarter/

According to this apple made roughy 20 billion in revenue from the iPad in 2020. So 20 billion plus 25 billion is 45 billion. That’s what the 15 billion from Ms should be compared to.
 
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reksveks

Member
Their revenue, which isn’t profit, is lumped together with their surface tablets. That’s be like comparing PlayStations revenue of 25 billion for the year AND whatever apple made from IPads the last year together. To give you some context.

Edit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/269914/apples-global-revenue-from-ipad-sales-by-quarter/

According to this apple made roughy 20 billion in revenue from the iPad in 2020. So 20 billion plus 25 billion is 45 billion. That’s what the 15 billion from Ms should be compared to.
Microsoft - More Personal Computing is 54,093 for the 12 month ending June 2020


That 15.4bn is I think slightly unofficial numbers cause its people using the revenue changes to figure out the numbers on a quarterly basis.
 
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I originally said.
Wouldn't two potential ways to sell their software on PC be better than only one? They want subs but some people can't get the Windows Store to work which is an issue. MS is trying to get their games to people anyway they can.

Absolutely. So no need to speculate that MS would rather have Game Pass revenue over actual game sales. We don't know that at all.
I got from this that you were saying you didn't know whether MS wanted Game pass revenue or game sales revenue.

to that I said:
Sure we do, they want both. Those things aren't mutually exclusive. MS will take money any way they can hence the multitude of ways you can play their games.
Which is still back to my original point about MS taking money any way they can.

Now you said:
Sure we do.....what? Know they want both? Well obviously or else they would only offer one or the other. But that wasn't the point being argued.
The point is MS is willing to provide games via Game Pass PC or Steam, or console, or mobile, or retail. As you said it's obvious. There is nothing mysterious to their motives.

Maybe, but MS blocked PS5 version. So, I wouldn't expect much.
There was never a PS5 version of the game. The game was completed thanks to MS's funding. MS honored the original agreement and produced a PS4 version of the game which was all that was promised. If you want to talk about blocking look no further than SF 5 not hitting Xbox. Or FF7R or the new KOTOR. Sony has written the book on blocking content to other platforms.
 
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mejin

Member
There was never a PS5 version of the game. The game was completed thanks to MS's funding. MS honored the original agreement and produced a PS4 version of the game which was all that was promised. If you want to talk about blocking look no further than SF 5 not hitting Xbox. Or FF7R or the new KOTOR. Sony has written the book on blocking content to other platforms.

that's not my intention....at all. Read the post I quoted. Sales thread, sales opinions.
 

kyoji

Member
I originally said.



I got from this that you were saying you didn't know whether MS wanted Game pass revenue or game sales revenue.

to that I said:

Which is still back to my original point about MS taking money any way they can.

Now you said:

The point is MS is willing to provide games via Game Pass PC or Steam, or console, or mobile, or retail. As you said it's obvious. There is nothing mysterious to their motives.


There was never a PS5 version of the game. The game was completed thanks to MS's funding. MS honored the original agreement and produced a PS4 version of the game which was all that was promised. If you want to talk about blocking look no further than SF 5 not hitting Xbox. Or FF7R or the new KOTOR. Sony has written the book on blocking content to other platforms.
So much disinformation in this 😂 specifically in your last paragraph.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
How does this affect potential customers? All they see is choice and options on how they can consume game content. If they want to sub they can. If they want to buy hardware and physical games they can. If they want to do play on PC they can. If they want to play on the their cell phones they can. All the things MS has done is give their customers flexibility. That isn't a problem at all. Certainly not for customers.
The conversation started talking about Xbox's business strategy and seeing things from their business POV. While these are all certainly good options for consumers, the point stands that Xbox's business strategy seems convulated.

They want software sales but they also want subscribers. And these are mutually exclusive. If your Gamepass subscribers go up, you will see fewer sales. If your software sales go up, it means you are not getting enough subscribers.
 

reksveks

Member
software sales
You including or excluding mtx/dlc?

If excluding, you could make an argument but not sure it's anything more than a possibility cause we don't have any insight into an proper a/b test. I wonder what the game split numbers in the UK before gamepass.

If including, then I think you might be more off the mark.
 

Hezekiah

Banned
There was never a PS5 version of the game. The game was completed thanks to MS's funding. MS honored the original agreement and produced a PS4 version of the game which was all that was promised. If you want to talk about blocking look no further than SF 5 not hitting Xbox. Or FF7R or the new KOTOR. Sony has written the book on blocking content to other platforms.
Don't be so sensitive, both companies use timed exclusivity. Microsoft did this regularly in the 360 era, look at Mass Effect and Bioshock. Mass Effect was released in 2007 - we didn't see a PS3 version until 2012.
 

Dabaus

Banned
You including or excluding mtx/dlc?

If excluding, you could make an argument but not sure it's anything more than a possibility cause we don't have any insight into an proper a/b test. I wonder what the game split numbers in the UK before gamepass.

If including, then I think you might be more off the mark.
You cant have mtx/dlc if you dont have software to get it from. You dont get software if youre not selling hardware. And since when was mtx/dlc considered a good thing? Why do we as gamers want THAT to be the baramoter of success?
 

reksveks

Member
youre not selling hardware
They are selling hardware, maybe not as much as Sony. And it goes back to my comment about what success is.

And since when was mtx/dlc considered a good thing? Why do we as gamers want THAT to be the baramoter of success?
The value of mtx/dlc is inherently subjective but if we are talking about sales numbers in this thread, I assume we are talking about the business side of gaming and not the art side. Also I was talking about how those two things arent mutually exclusive.
 

reksveks

Member
The conversation started talking about Xbox's business strategy and seeing things from their business POV. While these are all certainly good options for consumers, the point stands that Xbox's business strategy seems convulated.

Your argument about the hardware and service conflict, would you make the same argument about apple TV hardware and the apple TV service? I assume so, right? And amazon prime video and fire TV sticks?
 
Xbox revenue in FY2022 will reach $20 that's for sure.

2021 with a non existent Q1 and Bethesda only for 1 quarter was already $15.370bn.

They only need 30% YoY growth.
 
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Interfectum

Member
Maybe Psychonauts 2 is somewhere in the top 20 psn downloads for August. Or maybe not. Those haven't come out yet, usually they are out about now.
Pretty damning PSN Profiles statistic:
Hades owners: 6,255
Tales of Arise owners: 3,013
Deathloop owners: 1,150
ZJ the Ball - Level 5 owners: 777
Psychonauts 2 owners: 589
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
You including or excluding mtx/dlc?

If excluding, you could make an argument but not sure it's anything more than a possibility cause we don't have any insight into an proper a/b test. I wonder what the game split numbers in the UK before gamepass.

If including, then I think you might be more off the mark.
I wasn't factoring MTX/DLC at all. I was only talking about how consumers pay for and consume the first-party software you're creating: either by paying $60 upfront or via paying a $15 p/m subscription service.

Those two things are mutually exclusive. And because Xbox is doing both, I don't understand what their business strategy is and I don't see how they could be successful with it. That was/is the gist of my argument. If they want them sweet sweet retail sales (like Sony does), then they can't put their games on GP day one. OTOH, if they want people to subscribe to GP, then they can't put their games on retail on day one (like Netflix doesn't).

They are doing both at the moment -- which is weird.

In the end, if a game doesn't sell (like Psychonauts), the argument is that "well it was on Gamepass, so sales do not matter." But did Psychonauts increase Gamepass subscribers?

Also, if a game sells a lot on Xbox, the argument is "see, Gamepass increases game sales". But more sales actually means that people aren't subscribed to Gamepass and/or playing that game via Gamepass.

It's all very convoluted as a business strategy. And I think because of that, Xbox is in the last position in terms of hardware sales, last in terms of revenue, last in terms of profit, and hasn't been able to release an updated GP subscriber count for almost a year now.

Edit: And just to make it clear, if Sony starts releasing its game on PS Now day one or PC day one, all these questions apply to them as well. Nintendo is pretty set in its own ways and leaves no ambiguity in how they want to do achieve things and what their KPIs are.
 
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Don't be so sensitive, both companies use timed exclusivity. Microsoft did this regularly in the 360 era, look at Mass Effect and Bioshock. Mass Effect was released in 2007 - we didn't see a PS3 version until 2012.
And Tales of Vesperia, Last Remnant, Star Ocean 4, GTA4 DLCs (paid 50 million for these), every single COD DLC first for a month on 360, Mass Effect 2 exclusive for a year, plus all you said and more (they got the original Bayonetta from Platinum Games, PS3 got a dirty port from Sega), they also heavily moneyhatted studios like Remedy for Alan Wake and Quantum Break, Titanfall, Sunset Overdrive from Insomniac, paid 100 million for 1-year exclusivity of Rise of the Tomb Raider ...the list is larger than this. They started the trend back with the 360 and thought it would work again last gen. But Sony and the PS4 gave them a spoonful of their own soup. Serves them right and they had it coming.
 
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Woopah

Member
The conversation started talking about Xbox's business strategy and seeing things from their business POV. While these are all certainly good options for consumers, the point stands that Xbox's business strategy seems convulated.

They want software sales but they also want subscribers. And these are mutually exclusive. If your Gamepass subscribers go up, you will see fewer sales. If your software sales go up, it means you are not getting enough subscribers.
They are not mutually exclusive though. Some people subscribing would not not be buying a lot of full price games. Likewise not everyone buying games would become a subscriber. Microsoft's strategy is to cast a wide net.
 

reksveks

Member
Those two things are mutually exclusive
I don't think that they are mutually exclusive though, O suspect that you will have a percent of new and existing users whom yes won't buy the game but you would have % of new users would buy into the platform and might buy the game. Gamepass is a tactic to increase MAU and then they want to try and monetize them later on, they do like their push notifications on mobile to remind me when stuff is leaving.

I wasn't factoring MTX/DLC at all
Think this might the crux of the issue, I think Microsoft are. I think we won't get the answer to whether this is successful for another couple of quarters sadly. If Microsoft's revenue grow faster than the market, either they are growing MAU faster than other's in the market,, or increasing ARPU.
 
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I don't think that they are mutually exclusive though, O suspect that you will have a percent of new and existing users whom yes won't buy the game but you would have % of new users would buy into the platform and might buy the game. Gamepass is a tactic to increase MAU and then they want to try and monetize them later on, they do like their push notifications on mobile to remind me when stuff is leaving.


Think this might the crux of the issue, I think Microsoft are. I think we won't get the answer to whether this is successful for another couple of quarters sadly. If Microsoft's revenue grow faster than the market, either they are growing MAU faster than other's in the market,, or increasing ARPU.
Are you suggesting in a couple of quarters we'll know if Game Pass is profitable?
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I don't think that they are mutually exclusive though, O suspect that you will have a percent of new and existing users whom yes won't buy the game but you would have % of new users would buy into the platform and might buy the game. Gamepass is a tactic to increase MAU and then they want to try and monetize them later on, they do like their push notifications on mobile to remind me when stuff is leaving.
That's fair enough. I believe they are mutually exclusive, and that's why Netflix does not release DVDs for their originals.

Think this might the crux of the issue, I think Microsoft are. I think we won't get the answer to whether this is successful for another couple of quarters sadly. If Microsoft's revenue grow faster than the market, either they are growing MAU faster than other's in the market,, or increasing ARPU.
"a couple of quarters" sound extremely optimistic to me, lol. I feel it won't be before 2023 or 2024 that most people would be ready to admit/say that okay this is strategy is working or this strategy is not working.
 

Rivet

Member
People who say bad sales don't matter for MS due to Gamepass miss the point. Their whole strategy depends on having a very big number of subscribers. That's the only way they can make it profitable one day with all the games on it. Unless you think all those $1 subscriptions pay for the tons of games they put on it.

And how could the subscribers number be high if hardware sales aren't good? Xbox owners are the bulk of the subscribers obviously...
 
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reksveks

Member
That's fair enough. I believe they are mutually exclusive, and that's why Netflix does not release DVDs for their originals.
Netflix does but they basically take their streaming data probably into account when deciding what to turn into DVD's/Blu-rays but yeah, i don't think its a day one thing.
I feel it won't be before 2023 or 2024
maybe, I will just be keeping an eye on the next quarter to see if we can figure out engagement trends; october 26th is the next ms earning call theoretically and sony is the 27th.
 
The conversation started talking about Xbox's business strategy and seeing things from their business POV. While these are all certainly good options for consumers, the point stands that Xbox's business strategy seems convulated.

They want software sales but they also want subscribers. And these are mutually exclusive. If your Gamepass subscribers go up, you will see fewer sales. If your software sales go up, it means you are not getting enough subscribers.

The business strategy seems to be a 'all of the above' approach. There is nothing convoluted about it at all. If you want to sub you can. If you want to buy you can. If you want to stream you can. How is that confusing? What defines a 'sale' to you? If MS gets a subscriber that's a sale. If you buy a physical game on XSX|S, that's a sale. If you buy the game digitally on PC that too is a sale. This isn't rocket science. The point about subscribers hurting sales isn't really true either because not all the games are available on Game Pass and not all the games on Game pass are there forever. I bought Death's Door on XSX AND I have Game Pass. It wasn't mutually exclusive at all.
That's fair enough. I believe they are mutually exclusive, and that's why Netflix does not release DVDs for their originals.

This is an odd point. Does Netflix sell the movies you can stream on their service for a discount or even at all? It would appear to me that MS is doing something a bit different.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
I got from this that you were saying you didn't know whether MS wanted Game pass revenue or game sales revenue.

No, MrFunSocks MrFunSocks stated MS wanted Game Pass revenue over sales revenue. MS seems perfectly happy to accept our money from game sales. So I don't think his assertion is necessarily true.

That was the point being argued.
 
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No, MrFunSocks MrFunSocks stated MS wanted Game Pass revenue over sales revenue. MS seems perfectly happy to accept our money from game sales. So I don't think his assertion is necessarily true.

That was the point being argued.
Yeah I certainly don't see MS discouraging a source of money. I don't see any company doing that.
 

reksveks

Member
No, MrFunSocks MrFunSocks stated MS wanted Game Pass revenue over sales revenue. MS seems perfectly happy to accept our money from game sales. So I don't think his assertion is necessarily true.

That was the point being argued.
I think Scott Galloway would probably argue that he might have a point in terms of one transaction over a period of 4 months equalling 60 usd being less valuable to shareholders than 4 transactions over 4 months equalling 60 usd.

https://www.inc.com/anne-gherini/the-rise-of-rundle-a-new-trend-for-subscription-based-services.html

It's probably a twist on this, think xbox all access is the same play really.

Not sure that I think the theory is correct though.
 
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The majority of Xbox gamers simply don’t buy many games and these charts prove it each and every month. This has been going on for awhile even before Gamepass, but it seems like the software situation is getting even worst which is saying a lot. Some people will probably wait for certain games to come to Gamepass, but imo it’s so strange ignoring a title like Hitman 3, Mass Effect Collection or RE8. Third parties have to be concerned about this.

I unfortunately knew Pyschonauts 2 would not sell well as good as it is, but even on Gamepass it seems like it’s not getting played too much either. Seriously, what are XBOX gamers doing with those XBOX Ones and XSX’s consoles? Netflix? YouTube? Fortnite? Blu-ray’s? Even on my friends list, I barely see anyone playing games regularly. Then people wonder how Sony acquires exclusives without too many issues.
 
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Dabaus

Banned
People who say bad sales don't matter for MS due to Gamepass miss the point. Their whole strategy depends on having a very big number of subscribers. That's the only way they can make it profitable one day with all the games on it. Unless you think all those $1 subscriptions pay for the tons of games they put on it.

And how could the subscribers number could be high if hardware sales aren't good? Xbox owners are the bulk of the subscribers obviously...
This. These people live in an alternative reality where all metrics and barometers of success for a healthy, functioning business model are irrelevant. There's no anchor to reality for their arguments, it just comes down to MS is rich so they can bleed billions of dollars all generation. Here's a dose of reality, if halo winds up underperforming I guarantee by this time next year we will be having threads about Phils resignation and the uncertainty of xboxs future as a platform.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
The business strategy seems to be a 'all of the above' approach. There is nothing convoluted about it at all. If you want to sub you can. If you want to buy you can. If you want to stream you can. How is that confusing? What defines a 'sale' to you? If MS gets a subscriber that's a sale. If you buy a physical game on XSX|S, that's a sale. If you buy the game digitally on PC that too is a sale. This isn't rocket science. The point about subscribers hurting sales isn't really true either because not all the games are available on Game Pass and not all the games on Game pass are there forever. I bought Death's Door on XSX AND I have Game Pass. It wasn't mutually exclusive at all.

This is an odd point. Does Netflix sell the movies you can stream on their service for a discount or even at all? It would appear to me that MS is doing something a bit different.
Yeah I certainly don't see MS discouraging a source of money. I don't see any company doing that.
You're oversimplifying it. If it is just about opening multiple sources of revenue, why not put all their games on PlayStation? Xbox will still get Xbox customers as well as Gamepass subscribers, but Xbox will also sell more software via a new revenue source.

But they don't do it (rightfully so) because every decision -- chasing every revenue source -- has a cost attached to it. It's the same with retail sales and GP.

As the old saying goes, "If everything is special, then nothing is special." I feel Xbox will eventually have to pick a lane. They can't grow if they keep trying to sail in multiple boats. None of the successful companies (Xbox's direct and indirect competitors) is doing what Xbox is doing, and they all are more successful than Xbox, despite not having MS at their back to support them. Perhaps there is some validity in thinking that Xbox's strategy isn't right. Otherwise, they would be at #1, instead of companies that are 10x smaller than MS.

I bought Death's Door on XSX AND I have Game Pass. It wasn't mutually exclusive at all.
I was talking about Xbox's first-party software. That's why I kept using the Netflix Originals example.
 
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