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VG247: "If Xbox can't beat PS5 this holiday, I'm not sure it ever will"

can you prove its not owners?
I don't know about owners but going by the metrics they like to use currently...the game just released on a service with roughly 20 million subscribers or so it's speculated among "people in the know"... so if 5-6 millon are allegedly playing Forza H5, which just released, the new HOT thing on this service 20 million are subscribed to, what are the rest of those people playing, huh? Shouldn't there at least be like 10 million, 12 million playing the thing from day1 (From the GP base alone, not even counting buyers). What do all these people on Game Pass play, the new hot release they can access with a click and yet they aren't playing it...
 

kingfey

Banned
I don't know about owners but going by the metrics they like to use currently...the game just released on a service with roughly 20 million subscribers or so it's speculated among "people in the know"... so if 5-6 millon are allegedly playing Forza H5, which just released, the new HOT thing on this service 20 million are subscribed to, what are the rest of those people playing, huh? Shouldn't there at least be like 10 million, 12 million playing the thing from day1 (From the GP base alone, not even counting buyers). What do all these people on Game Pass play, the new hot release they can access with a click and yet they aren't playing it...
Not everyone likes the same game. How hard is that to know it?

God of war took 4 years on ps4 to hit 20m.
 

Greggy

Member
I don't know about owners but going by the metrics they like to use currently...the game just released on a service with roughly 20 million subscribers or so it's speculated among "people in the know"... so if 5-6 millon are allegedly playing Forza H5, which just released, the new HOT thing on this service 20 million are subscribed to, what are the rest of those people playing, huh? Shouldn't there at least be like 10 million, 12 million playing the thing from day1 (From the GP base alone, not even counting buyers). What do all these people on Game Pass play, the new hot release they can access with a click and yet they aren't playing it...
Do you think everybody watched The Irishman the minute it was released on Netflix because it was "the new hot thing"? The beauty of a service is you have access to the entire catalogue in your own time. There is no law requiring that you only play the last "hot" thing that was released at any given time. May be people are trying to beat Psychonauts 2 or Flight Sim before they move on to FH5. I'm sorry but you're not making any sense.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Ok I mean no shit people buy consoles to play games on them but let me refer back to what was being said:




So why are you trying to show that FH5 will outsell (key word being outsell) Spiderman with FH5 player numbers then attack a strawman about nobody caring about "healthy player base". As if anybody showed any concern about that at all.

I hope FH5 does really well and it really seems to have but you need to stop using incorrect metrics.

Player numbers on a leaderboard don't even mean a good player base. Don't get the wrong idea, I'm not sayin FH5 is actually a flop or anything, but gamepass and PS+/Now changes the meaning of these metrics. I play Call of Duty modern warfare remastered almost every single day. One of my favorite games. Its leaderboards have 16M players. It probably had a massive influx of players too just like FH5s 5M especially when offered as part of a sub for people to check out. It's hard to get into any lobby on some game modes in it. The leaderboard number can grow massively and never comes down but its active players is a different beast. That's the metric you're looking for in a healthy player base. Not cumulative leaderboard numbers.
COD4 Remastered came out 5 years ago. Of course it makes sense the active player pool will be a tiny fraction of that. COD4 original is probably even worse as that game had a ton of players and came out 14 years ago.

FH5 came out 2 days ago for standard and 5 days ago for premium editions. And it's at 6M or whatever players.

You're trying to equate active/non-active player bases for 6M players who just logged in the past bunch of days versus games COD Remastered that came out 5 years ago?
 
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I don't know about owners but going by the metrics they like to use currently...the game just released on a service with roughly 20 million subscribers or so it's speculated among "people in the know"... so if 5-6 millon are allegedly playing Forza H5, which just released, the new HOT thing on this service 20 million are subscribed to, what are the rest of those people playing, huh? Shouldn't there at least be like 10 million, 12 million playing the thing from day1 (From the GP base alone, not even counting buyers). What do all these people on Game Pass play, the new hot release they can access with a click and yet they aren't playing it...
When you're super close to the copypasta but you're 100% serious...

Jay Z Reaction GIF by Complex
 

kanjobazooie

Mouse Ball Fetishist
"what their customers want from a product."

Ah, of course, if any company has always the answer to that there will be no failing businesses in the world. But not Sony nor any other company has the crystal ball. reality changes all the time, you might not be prepared for a shift and all of the sudden you can be out of business. Thats why big corpos tend to diversify, they know better than no one that shit could - and eventually- will happen.
I understand your point and you're 100% correct.
My issue was simply the examples of Kodak and the others, since Sony didn't show an iota of the stubbornness that these companies had. I don't think they're comparable. The last time Sony acted like them was during the early PS3 days.

I think I probably read too much into your original post and misunderstood its point, though. Sorry, man. (y)
 
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Reactions: JLB

Three

Member
can you prove its not owners?
I don't have figures for the game unless MS have shared them somewhere but they usually don't. Leaderboard player numbers have never been a good gauge for sales though.

I know by the fact that Call Of Duty MW Remastered did not sell anywhere close to 16M copies. It didn't even make the top 15 call of duty's which had a lower limit of 4.5M.

Burden of proof is not on me anyway. Can you show it sold the amount shown on the leaderboards player count?
 

kingfey

Banned
I don't have figures for the game unless MS have shared them somewhere but they usually don't. Leaderboard player numbers have never been a good gauge for sales though.

I know by the fact that Call Of Duty MW Remastered did not sell anywhere close to 16M copies. It didn't even make the top 15 call of duty's which had a lower limit of 4.5M.

Burden of proof is not on me anyway. Can you show it sold the amount shown on the leaderboards player count?
Its on you, since you claim those arent owners. No one is making those claims.

call of duty is all on 3 systems. So your point is meh.

you need to actually play the game, so you need to have a console or pc.
 
Do you think everybody watched The Irishman the minute it was released on Netflix because it was "the new hot thing"? The beauty of a service is you have access to the entire catalogue in your own time. There is no law requiring that you only play the last "hot" thing that was released at any given time. May be people are trying to beat Psychonauts 2 or Flight Sim before they move on to FH5. I'm sorry but you're not making any sense.
So a major incentive of the service is getting exclusives day 1....so people choose to play them on day whatever...Ok. it's not like the platform has 3000 games and 300 exclusives. This is one drop of blood in the ocean for 20 million hungry sharks (maybe 30! Ah but now it would make them look worse if it was really 30 million subs right?). I know what you're saying. It's doing alright for what it is, not the second coming Phil Spencer and people would have us believe.
 
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Xbox had xbox one disaster. Pc didn't really affect them that much.

If Xbox didn't suffer from Xbox one disaster, you would have seen more people support Xbox and pc relationship.

Major appeal of consoles are the easy set up. Tv, hdmi, and account for the console store. With pc, you have to deal with window, your graphic cards, and all other pc stores. For casuals, console will be better choice.
Perhaps, but I did notice that around the time when Microsoft went full on PC support, the sales dropped like a rock on hardware and they started hiding their numbers. I remember all the, why but XBOX when I have a PC comments online around this time as well. Could be coincidence, but the timing was very close if I remember correctly.

I think it also depends on when Sony releases their first party games on PC. 1 year or longer probably won’t tamper too much with sales. Day one releases I think could eat into console sales.
 

kingfey

Banned
Perhaps, but I did notice that around the time when Microsoft went full on PC support, the sales dropped like a rock on hardware and they started hiding their numbers. I remember all the, why but XBOX when I have a PC comments online around this time as well. Could be coincidence, but the timing was very close if I remember correctly.

I think it also depends on when Sony releases their first party games on PC. 1 year or longer probably won’t tamper too much with sales. Day one releases I think could eat into console sales.
Its exclusive games. Nothing to do with pc.

Xbox wasn't releasing any new major games. They actually started in 2018. With forza 4 and sea of thieves, after that it was games slow pace.

Before that, xbox one was dry. And Playstation had been dropping games after games, especially with 3rd party exclusive and timed exclusive games.
 

kingfey

Banned
Lol. Please...you're the one who brought up GoW 2018 SALES to compare to some subscribers engagement. I wouldn"t even try to teach you math, that would be futile.
You brought up gamepass numbers.

Just because gamepass is 20m, doesnt mean fh5 will have 20m players. That is not how it works.

Not every gamepass user will play the same game. Same thing how god of war has 20m for 120 ps4 consoles.

Everyone has something they like. Its why genre exist. So people can play games they like.
 
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Three

Member
COD4 Remastered came out 5 years ago. Of course it makes sense the active player pool will be a tiny fraction of that. COD4 original is probably even worse as that game had a ton of players and came out 14 years ago.

FH5 came out 2 days ago for standard and 5 days ago for premium editions. And it's at 6M or whatever players.

You're trying to equate active/non-active player bases for 6M players who just logged in the past bunch of days versus games COD Remastered that came out 5 years ago?
I'm not saying FH5 is dead or has difficulty matchmaking. All I'm saying is that active playerbase is not the same as a cumulative leaderboard number because launching a game does not mean actively playing. Neither does sales even.

COD remastered 5 years ago had massive leaderboard numbers in its initial week 1M+. It had another massive influx when it went to PS+.

Look at the active players on COD remastered on steam. Barely just hit 6,000 at its peak near launch.

All I'm saying is that even cumulative leaderboard numbers are not a gauge for active players because I've seen words like this

There are 5M people playing FH5 right now.

Because it shows how many people are playing the game?

Active players would be a very very small fraction of this. Leaderboard numbers give you a cumulative tally of everyone who has ever launched the game and that differs greatly when the game is given away on subscription services. Leaderboards aren't active player base or 'playing right now'. Cumulative leaderboards never come down. Active player base does and that's what determines a healthy player base.
 
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You brought up gamepass numbers.

Just because gamepass is 20m, doesnt mean fh5 will have 20m players. That is not how it works.

Not every gamepass user will play the same game. Same thing how god of war has 20m for 120 ps4 consoles.

Everyone has something they like. Its why genre exist. So people can play games they like.
Ok. That's the truth. Success!!!
 

Greggy

Member
So a major incentive of the service is getting exclusives day 1....so people choose to play them on day whatever...Ok. it's not like the platform has 3000 games and 300 exclusives. This is one drop of blood in the ocean for 20 million hungry sharks (maybe 30! Ah but now it would make them look worse if it was really 30 million subs right?). I know what you're saying. It's doing alright for what it is, not the second coming Phil Spencer and people would have us believe.
Your obsession with trying to turn this critically acclaimed game's numbers into something negative or unimpressive is obvious. 4.5M within 2 days of being released is something that only Game Pass makes possible. Is it the second coming of anything? no. But it's extremely high value for what gamers are being asked to pay. That game would be 80£ or more day one on any other platform.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I'm not saying FH5 is dead or has difficulty matchmaking. All I'm saying is that active playerbase is not the same as a cumulative leaderboard number because launching a game does not mean actively playing. Neither does sales even.

COD remastered 5 years ago had massive leaderboard numbers in its initial week 1M+. It had another massive influx when it went to PS+.

Look at the active players on COD remastered on steam. Barely just hit 6,000 at its peak near launch.

All I'm saying is that even cumulative leaderboard numbers are not a gauge for active players because I've seen words like this





Active players would be a very very small fraction of this. Leaderboard numbers give you a cumulative tally of everyone who has ever launched the game and that differs greatly when the game is given away on subscription services. Leaderboards aren't active player base or 'playing right now'. Cumulative leaderboards never come down. Active player base does and that's what determines a healthy player base.
When did I say an old game with tons of leaderboard player counts means all those players are still active users (like you opposed with 5 year old COD4 Remastered)?

You can stop trying to downplay FH5's player count and active user base during launch week vs. an active player base of a 5 year COD game.
 
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ManaByte

Member
Leaderboard numbers give you a cumulative tally of everyone who has ever launched the game

That's not true with FH5. In order to show up on the leaderboard and be counted you need to finish the introduction and unlock the first Forza festival where the leaderboard is located.
 
Your obsession with trying to turn this critically acclaim game's numbers into something negative or unimpressive is obvious. 4.5M within 2 days of being released is something that only Game Pass makes possible. Is it the second coming of anything no. But it's extremely high value for what gamers are being asked to pay. That game would be 80£ or more day one on any other platform.
eddie murphy laughing GIF
 

Three

Member
Its on you, since you claim those arent owners. No one is making those claims.

call of duty is all on 3 systems. So your point is meh.

you need to actually play the game, so you need to have a console or pc.
Why would the burden of proof be on me if somebody is using player numbers as owners then asking me for proof they aren't. I didn't make a claim. The initial claim is here
We know that there is at least 1.5 mill ultimate edition owners which has more than likely covered development costs.

We know that there were 1.5M unique players before release. It's up to him to show they were 'owners'.

Why would COD being on all 3 systems make it a moot point to show that healthy player base is related to active players is the correct metric and not cumulative leaderboard numbers. Especially as I make it pretty clear I'm not saying that FH5 is some kind of flop but just showing you with an example where cumulative goes crazy high but active players can drops in the opposite direction.
 

Lognor

Banned
While i play Horizon 5 on PC. I can't say i feel that i am racing all the time. Some challanges are fun with the enviroment, but for me it's still closed circuit racing>arcade over the top flying over mountains with hyper cars.
That's fair. I can see how Forza Horizon isn't for everyone. But those closed circuit racing games - they're niche. The general public does not really care for them anymore. Look at Gran Turismo Sport, Assetto Corsa, etc. Those games definitely have their fans, but they lack general appeal. GTS did get to 9m players, but it took well over a year to reach that level (and that's probably about where it has capped out). FH5 is already over 5m players, within 1-2 days of release. It will blow past GTS in the first month probably.
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
I don't have figures for the game unless MS have shared them somewhere but they usually don't. Leaderboard player numbers have never been a good gauge for sales though.

I know by the fact that Call Of Duty MW Remastered did not sell anywhere close to 16M copies. It didn't even make the top 15 call of duty's which had a lower limit of 4.5M.

Burden of proof is not on me anyway. Can you show it sold the amount shown on the leaderboards player count?

to be fair it’s you claiming that it ain’t sales so it’s on you to prove otherwise. With cod mw that’s over a period of time where this is just ultimate edition which was only playable befor launch so different set of circumstances
 

kingfey

Banned
Why would the burden of proof be on me if somebody is using player numbers as owners then asking me for proof they aren't. I didn't make a claim. The initial claim is here


We know that there were 1.5M unique players before release. It's up to him to show they were 'owners'.

Why would COD being on all 3 systems make it a moot point to show that healthy player base is related to active players is the correct metric and not cumulative leaderboard numbers. Especially as I make it pretty clear I'm not saying that FH5 is some kind of flop but just showing you with an example where cumulative goes crazy high but active players can drops in the opposite direction.
You said, Players arent owners. That will be you to proof it.

Because you need actual device to play the game. Their point is valid.
 

Three

Member
That's not true with FH5. In order to show up on the leaderboard and be counted you need to finish the introduction and unlock the first Forza festival where the leaderboard is located.
It tracks them all even with a 0 score I think. At least that's what they say in the article

"Forza Horizon 5’s hall of fame leaderboard, which tracks every player who has logged into the game"

Either way it makes no difference. Logged in or completed the introduction it's still a cumulative tally of every person not active playerbase which is a different metric.
 

Three

Member
to be fair it’s you claiming that it ain’t sales so it’s on you to prove otherwise. With cod mw that’s over a period of time where this is just ultimate edition which was only playable befor launch so different set of circumstances
But it's you/phil claiming they are owners. The only claim I'm making matches what it is, that it is the number of unique players on a leaderboard. I don't need proof of that because it's exactly what it is. You're the one saying they are owners. So can you prove there were 1.5M premium edition owners?
 
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Lognor

Banned
It tracks them all even with a 0 score I think. At least that's what they say in the article

"Forza Horizon 5’s hall of fame leaderboard, which tracks every player who has logged into the game"

Either way it makes no difference. Logged in or completed the introduction it's still a cumulative tally of every person not active playerbase which is a different metric.
The game just came out a few days ago. What's the difference between every player and active playerbase at this point? It's the same thing!
 

kingfey

Banned
But it's you/phil claiming they are owners. The only claim I'm making matches what it is, that it is the number of unique players on a leaderboard. I don't need proof of that because it's exactly what it is. You're the one saying they are owners. So can you prove there were 1.5M premium edition owners?
You need to buy the game for that. 1.5M spent money.

Stop arguing over nonsense.

You need gamepass, pc, xbox players to pay money to play the game. This isnt a warzone game, where you play it for free.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
The game just came out a few days ago. What's the difference between every player and active playerbase at this point? It's the same thing!
My view as well.

But according to Three, his example is FH5's player count is suspicious because using his example of COD4 Remastered that came out 5 years ago, there's hardly any gamers online vs. the 16 million player count on its leaderboards.
 

kingfey

Banned
My view as well.

But according to Three, his example is FH5's player count is suspicious because using his example of COD4 Remastered that came out 5 years ago, there's hardly any gamers online vs. the 16 million player count on its leaderboards.
He has no clue that you need to actually pay for these games. wether it was on sale, ps+ or anything, you need to spend money to play it. That is something he cant comprehend it.
 

Three

Member
The game just came out a few days ago. What's the difference between every player and active playerbase at this point? It's the same thing!
It would be like me saying there are
100 billion people living on earth right now. When there are only 8 billion.

When somebody uses cumulative tally to say there are xM people playing right now they are doing the same thing. I used the example of another successful game to show that active players are a very very small fraction of sales or cumulative players at any one time and that one value can only go up whereas the other can more than half in less than a week. I'm just saying it's the wrong metric that's all.

He has no clue that you need to actually pay for these games. wether it was on sale, ps+ or anything, you need to spend money to play it. That is something he cant comprehend it.
When have I ever said you don't need to pay for a subscription? The strawman is such bullshit.
 
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kingfey

Banned
It would be like me saying there are
100 billion people living on earth right now. When there are only 8 billion.

When somebody uses cumulative tally to say there are xM people playing right now they are doing the same thing. I used the example of another successful game to show that active players are a very very small fraction of sales or cumulative players at any one time and that one value can only go up whereas the other can more than half in less than a week. I'm just saying it's the wrong metric that's all.
Are you dense? Honestly.

You need to actually buy the game to play it right?

this isnt f2p game. This is a game, where you spend money, to access the game in the first place.

Its like saying ps+ users dont count, because they didnt buy the game. when they actually spent money on ps+ to play those games.

FOR THE LAST TIME. YOU NEED TO BUY A GAME, TO BE COUNTED. UNLESS THE GAME IS F2P.
 

Dick Jones

Gold Member
He has no clue that you need to actually pay for these games. wether it was on sale, ps+ or anything, you need to spend money to play it. That is something he cant comprehend it.
If you bought FH5 early can another account on the same Xbox play that same game early? I think that's what the poster is getting at. 2 players but only one bought it. I'm open to correction from the other poster but that's my reading.
 

kingfey

Banned
It would be like me saying there are
100 billion people living on earth right now. When there are only 8 billion.

When somebody uses cumulative tally to say there are xM people playing right now they are doing the same thing. I used the example of another successful game to show that active players are a very very small fraction of sales or cumulative players at any one time and that one value can only go up whereas the other can more than half in less than a week. I'm just saying it's the wrong metric that's all.


When have I ever said you don't need to pay for a subscription? The strawman is such bullshit.
you are saying they arent owners.

Paying the subscription counts as owner too. They are spending money to play the game.
 

Lognor

Banned
It would be like me saying there are
100 billion people living on earth right now. When there are only 8 billion.

When somebody uses cumulative tally to say there are xM people playing right now they are doing the same thing. I used the example of another successful game to show that active players are a very very small fraction of sales or cumulative players at any one time and that one value can only go up whereas the other can more than half in less than a week. I'm just saying it's the wrong metric that's all.


When have I ever said you don't need to pay for a subscription? The strawman is such bullshit.
When you say "right now" do you literally mean right now? Because I've been playing FH5 now, but not "right now." If you're not playing at this very instance, you don't count? For the player count, we know those are people who have played in the last couple of days. Is that not recent enough? You really need to know who is playing right now at this very moment?
 

kingfey

Banned
If you bought FH5 early can another account on the same Xbox play that same game early? I think that's what the poster is getting at. 2 players but only one bought it. I'm open to correction from the other poster but that's my reading.
He means another party plays it for free.

Hence Ownership.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
It would be like me saying there are
100 billion people living on earth right now. When there are only 8 billion.

When somebody uses cumulative tally to say there are xM people playing right now they are doing the same thing. I used the example of another successful game to show that active players are a very very small fraction of sales or cumulative players at any one time and that one value can only go up whereas the other can more than half in less than a week. I'm just saying it's the wrong metric that's all.


When have I ever said you don't need to pay for a subscription? The strawman is such bullshit.
So using your COD4 Remastered example, you're saying FH5's 5-6M player count are a bunch of people who downloaded the game and have barely played the game.

Technically, youre right. It just came out. I've only played it for 40 minutes. Does that count?

Or are you going to downplay all the people unless they've put in 48 hrs of gaming during launch week?
 
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kingfey

Banned
When you say "right now" do you literally mean right now? Because I've been playing FH5 now, but not "right now." If you're not playing at this very instance, you don't count? For the player count, we know those are people who have played in the last couple of days. Is that not recent enough? You really need to know who is playing right now at this very moment?

This is for steam now.
 
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