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PS5 will outsell Xbox Series consoles 2-to-1 this year, Ampere Analysis forecasts

PropellerEar

PropellerEar

Member
Lognor said:
Sony has limited funds in which to invest in new interesting IP. MS has an endless supply of cash. Not the same scenario at all...
Click to expand...
Sony has the best talent in the business to produce interesting new IP and much better track record, MS payed 68B for old IP that already exists on XBox.
Dj Khaled Congratulations GIF
 
Lognor

Lognor

Banned
PropellerEar said:
Sony has the best talent in the business to produce interesting new IP and much better track record, MS payed 68B for old IP that already exists on XBox.
Dj Khaled Congratulations GIF
Click to expand...
No, that's Nintendo. Nintendo has the best talent in the business. Look at all their 20m+ sellers. Far more than Sony. Better sales = better talent

Sony is becoming more and more the single player cinematic game machine. Oh and fighting games too I guess now that they own the fighting game tournament. Yay?
 
ChiefDada

ChiefDada

Gold Member
Mozza said:
I would say that outside of any existing contractual agreement that COD will be a Microsoft exclusive going forward, or why else pay all that money for the studio.
Click to expand...
Because it's not just CoD that they bought. A lot of the IPs that came with the deal were underutilized by Activision and Microsoft is not only willing to revitalize them, but also extend to a variety of other mediums outside of the console arena. This doesn't mean Xbox gamers won't have perks associated with Microsoft's control of the IP because they definitely will. PS players can kiss all marketing related perks goodbye. But closing off the largest audience from an IP they paid a pretty penny for is counter-productive to Microsoft's long-term goals.
Lognor said:
COD WILL be exclusive to Xbox, PC and any device that plays Game Pass. This is the way it has been with every studio acquisition MS has made. They do not continue to release games on PS once they acquire a studio. You think you would have figured this out by now!

It doesn't affect Game Pass fans either way. We are happy whichever way it goes, but it's not going to to the way you think. COD is, and will remain multi platform. MS is not changing that. It will still be on Xbox, still be on PC, and will be on streaming devices. When you factor in the 30% cut they would have to give Sony for every copy sold on PS those sales mean far less. And then when you factor in all the people that will move from PS to Xbox due to this acquisition, it may more than make up for losing sales on one device.

And you say MS can subsidize the investment with earnings from a multi platform COD which is "literally the same strategy Sony has used..." What does this mean? What games from Sony are multi platform? None. I don't see how this is the same strategy.

And also, you seem to forget that MS does not need to use the same strategy as Sony (again, whatever you meant by that). Sony has limited funds in which to invest in new interesting IP. MS has an endless supply of cash. Not the same scenario at all...
Click to expand...
I was going to offer reasons as to why most of your claims don't make sense from a business perspective, but when I read the bolded portion, I quickly realized I'd be wasting my time.
 
Lognor

Lognor

Banned
ChiefDada said:
Because it's not just CoD that they bought. A lot of the IPs that came with the deal were underutilized by Activision and Microsoft is not only willing to revitalize them, but also extend to a variety of other mediums outside of the console arena. This doesn't mean Xbox gamers won't have perks associated with Microsoft's control of the IP because they definitely will. PS players can kiss all marketing related perks goodbye. But closing off the largest audience from an IP they paid a pretty penny for is counter-productive to Microsoft's long-term goals.

I was going to offer reasons as to why most of your claims don't make sense from a business perspective, but when I read the bolded portion, I quickly realized I'd be wasting my time.
Click to expand...
I'm a business man so of course I know what I'm talking about. I can help you to understand as well. Shoot me a message and I'll lay it out in layman's terms. thx
 
TheGodfather07

TheGodfather07

Member
Lognor said:
No, that's Nintendo. Nintendo has the best talent in the business. Look at all their 20m+ sellers. Far more than Sony. Better sales = better talent

Sony is becoming more and more the single player cinematic game machine. Oh and fighting games too I guess now that they own the fighting game tournament. Yay?
Click to expand...

He was talking about new ip though. Sony are undoubtedly one of the best at creating successful new ip. It can't be argued when they are selling over 10m copies of new ip. Something even established franchises can't do. That's no easy feat and speaks of the quality of those games.
 
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ChiefDada

ChiefDada

Gold Member
Lognor said:
I'm a business man so of course I know what I'm talking about. I can help you to understand as well. Shoot me a message and I'll lay it out in layman's terms. thx
Click to expand...

You continue to demonstrate your inability to engage in conversation from an objective and open-minded position. Therefore, I'll pass.
 
Lognor

Lognor

Banned
TheGodfather07 said:
He was talking about new ip though. Sony are undoubtedly one of the best at creating successful new ip. It can't be argued when they are selling over 10m copies of new ip. Something even established franchises can't do. That's no easy feat and speaks of the quality of those games.
Click to expand...
That is still debatable. I would say Nintendo is right up there with successful new IPs. Yes, they do rely on older IP a lot (maybe too much), but they've had two more newer IPs I can think of that have been hugely successful - Splatoon and Ring Fit. For Sony, Horizon is one that has sold over $10M, but I can't think of any other new IPs from Sony that have been that successful unless we go further back to the PS3 days. Got might be at $10M....not sure on that.
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
PropellerEar said:
Sony has the best talent in the business to produce interesting new IP and much better track record, MS payed 68B for old IP that already exists on XBox.
Dj Khaled Congratulations GIF
Click to expand...
Talent costs money. They are about to lose a gigantic chunk of their yearly revenue. That is going to cut their budget they provide to their first party talent to produce those new IPs at a consistently high quality.
  • Horizon - 6 years in development
  • Horizon 2 - 5 years dev time
  • Days Gone - 8 years in dev
  • Ghost of Tsushima - 6 years dev time
  • GoW - 5 years dev time
  • Dreams - 9 years
Without CoD, without that COD userbase that makes up a huge portion of the 45 million PS+ userbase, Sony doesn't have the funds to wait years on these guys. They made $25 billion last year. Only $3 billion in profits so their operating income was $22 billion. Remove cod, remove even a small 10-20% of that PS+ userbase and digital revenue and they go in debt immediately.

Then all of a sudden they cant afford to delay these games like they do. They start shipping them unpolished. They gut the teams to reduce yearly operating costs. You end up with something like Nintendo. Even fewer games than we get today. Smaller in scope. I mean when was the last time Nintendo first party even released an AAA game? Breath of the Wild in 2017? These guys are printing money but they cant afford to have the same operating costs as Sony because they dont have CoD.

Bottomline is that everyone relies on free revenue from third party games like CoD and Fortnite. Where they do nothing other than maybe pay a few million in a marketing deal. They rely on free PS+ money. There is no real costs for that sub. PSN Store pays for itself. Activision pays for CoD servers. Epic Store filing shows how free games cost a few million max. PS+ is like 90% profit. Thats their entire business model. Their board knows this. They simply cannot hope that the cod audience doesn't leave. They have to account for the worst case scenario and they are going to have to drastically cut down costs to reduce their spending. Forget new acquisitions, they will demand cost reductions.

And all of that is going to negatively impact Sony first party.
 
PropellerEar

PropellerEar

Member
SlimySnake said:
Talent costs money. They are about to lose a gigantic chunk of their yearly revenue. That is going to cut their budget they provide to their first party talent to produce those new IPs at a consistently high quality.
  • Horizon - 6 years in development
  • Horizon 2 - 5 years dev time
  • Days Gone - 8 years in dev
  • Ghost of Tsushima - 6 years dev time
  • GoW - 5 years dev time
  • Dreams - 9 years
Without CoD, without that COD userbase that makes up a huge portion of the 45 million PS+ userbase, Sony doesn't have the funds to wait years on these guys. They made $25 billion last year. Only $3 billion in profits so their operating income was $22 billion. Remove cod, remove even a small 10-20% of that PS+ userbase and digital revenue and they go in debt immediately.

Then all of a sudden they cant afford to delay these games like they do. They start shipping them unpolished. They gut the teams to reduce yearly operating costs. You end up with something like Nintendo. Even fewer games than we get today. Smaller in scope. I mean when was the last time Nintendo first party even released an AAA game? Breath of the Wild in 2017? These guys are printing money but they cant afford to have the same operating costs as Sony because they dont have CoD.

Bottomline is that everyone relies on free revenue from third party games like CoD and Fortnite. Where they do nothing other than maybe pay a few million in a marketing deal. They rely on free PS+ money. There is no real costs for that sub. PSN Store pays for itself. Activision pays for CoD servers. Epic Store filing shows how free games cost a few million max. PS+ is like 90% profit. Thats their entire business model. Their board knows this. They simply cannot hope that the cod audience doesn't leave. They have to account for the worst case scenario and they are going to have to drastically cut down costs to reduce their spending. Forget new acquisitions, they will demand cost reductions.

And all of that is going to negatively impact Sony first party.
Click to expand...
Aren't you gloomy...
but to be honest your doomsday profecy has some truth in it.
 
Dr Bass

Dr Bass

Member
SlimySnake said:
Talent costs money. They are about to lose a gigantic chunk of their yearly revenue. That is going to cut their budget they provide to their first party talent to produce those new IPs at a consistently high quality.
  • Horizon - 6 years in development
  • Horizon 2 - 5 years dev time
  • Days Gone - 8 years in dev
  • Ghost of Tsushima - 6 years dev time
  • GoW - 5 years dev time
  • Dreams - 9 years
Without CoD, without that COD userbase that makes up a huge portion of the 45 million PS+ userbase, Sony doesn't have the funds to wait years on these guys. They made $25 billion last year. Only $3 billion in profits so their operating income was $22 billion. Remove cod, remove even a small 10-20% of that PS+ userbase and digital revenue and they go in debt immediately.

Then all of a sudden they cant afford to delay these games like they do. They start shipping them unpolished. They gut the teams to reduce yearly operating costs. You end up with something like Nintendo. Even fewer games than we get today. Smaller in scope. I mean when was the last time Nintendo first party even released an AAA game? Breath of the Wild in 2017? These guys are printing money but they cant afford to have the same operating costs as Sony because they dont have CoD.

Bottomline is that everyone relies on free revenue from third party games like CoD and Fortnite. Where they do nothing other than maybe pay a few million in a marketing deal. They rely on free PS+ money. There is no real costs for that sub. PSN Store pays for itself. Activision pays for CoD servers. Epic Store filing shows how free games cost a few million max. PS+ is like 90% profit. Thats their entire business model. Their board knows this. They simply cannot hope that the cod audience doesn't leave. They have to account for the worst case scenario and they are going to have to drastically cut down costs to reduce their spending. Forget new acquisitions, they will demand cost reductions.

And all of that is going to negatively impact Sony first party.
Click to expand...
Freakin' hell ... more of this garbage.

The hit to Sony's bottom line is going to be marginal in the worst case forecasted scenario. Knock it off with the doom and gloom nonsense.

www.tweaktown.com

Sony to lose $260 million a year if Call of Duty goes Xbox exclusive

Sony will lose up to an estimated $260 million a year if Call of Duty leaves PlayStation and becomes a full Xbox exclusive.
www.tweaktown.com www.tweaktown.com

Between .3 -1% of current revenue loss. It's practically nothing. I don't think you even know how big Activision is vs. Sony if based on what you're saying. You talk total and complete nonsense and frame it like it's a real life scenario.

Sony is going to continue on and keep doing what they do, and they will be fine.
 
Last edited:
ChiefDada

ChiefDada

Gold Member
SlimySnake said:
Talent costs money. They are about to lose a gigantic chunk of their yearly revenue. That is going to cut their budget they provide to their first party talent to produce those new IPs at a consistently high quality.
  • Horizon - 6 years in development
  • Horizon 2 - 5 years dev time
  • Days Gone - 8 years in dev
  • Ghost of Tsushima - 6 years dev time
  • GoW - 5 years dev time
  • Dreams - 9 years
Without CoD, without that COD userbase that makes up a huge portion of the 45 million PS+ userbase, Sony doesn't have the funds to wait years on these guys. They made $25 billion last year. Only $3 billion in profits so their operating income was $22 billion. Remove cod, remove even a small 10-20% of that PS+ userbase and digital revenue and they go in debt immediately.

Then all of a sudden they cant afford to delay these games like they do. They start shipping them unpolished. They gut the teams to reduce yearly operating costs. You end up with something like Nintendo. Even fewer games than we get today. Smaller in scope. I mean when was the last time Nintendo first party even released an AAA game? Breath of the Wild in 2017? These guys are printing money but they cant afford to have the same operating costs as Sony because they dont have CoD.

Bottomline is that everyone relies on free revenue from third party games like CoD and Fortnite. Where they do nothing other than maybe pay a few million in a marketing deal. They rely on free PS+ money. There is no real costs for that sub. PSN Store pays for itself. Activision pays for CoD servers. Epic Store filing shows how free games cost a few million max. PS+ is like 90% profit. Thats their entire business model. Their board knows this. They simply cannot hope that the cod audience doesn't leave. They have to account for the worst case scenario and they are going to have to drastically cut down costs to reduce their spending. Forget new acquisitions, they will demand cost reductions.

And all of that is going to negatively impact Sony first party.
Click to expand...

I agree with some of the key points you're making here, but I think your portrayal of Sony's new circumstances is overly pessimistic. Much of this depends in part on when you believe a hypothetical Xbox console exclusive CoD will release. What is your best guess?
 
The Alien

The Alien

Banned
I expect finding either an X or a PS5 to be difficult the entire year. Theyll both sell out the second available.

Which kinda leaves the S to sell. Didnt a recent article say sales were actually closer than anticipated due to S selling well?

Also, not sure Sony thinks they're gonna sell a boatload of PS5s and will be limited....hence them ramping up PS4 production.
 
Lognor

Lognor

Banned
Dr Bass said:
Freakin' hell ... more of this garbage.

The hit to Sony's bottom line is going to be marginal in the worst case forecasted scenario. Knock it off with the doom and gloom nonsense.

www.tweaktown.com

Sony to lose $260 million a year if Call of Duty goes Xbox exclusive

Sony will lose up to an estimated $260 million a year if Call of Duty leaves PlayStation and becomes a full Xbox exclusive.
www.tweaktown.com www.tweaktown.com

Between .3 -1% of current revenue loss. It's practically nothing. I don't think you even know how big Activision is vs. Sony if based on what you're saying. You talk total and complete nonsense and frame it like it's a real life scenario.

Sony is going to continue on and keep doing what they do, and they will be fine.
Click to expand...
Okay so $260 million (a year) plus $20 billion. Pretty big hit.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technol...-shares-playstation-activision-blizzard-games
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
PropellerEar said:
Aren't you gloomy...
but to be honest your doomsday profecy has some truth in it.
Click to expand...
ChiefDada said:
I agree with some of the key points you're making here, but I think your portrayal of Sony's new circumstances is overly pessimistic. Much of this depends in part on when you believe a hypothetical Xbox console exclusive CoD will release. What is your best guess?
Click to expand...
You dont spend $70 billion to put games on your competitor's platform. That's why I am so certain CoD wont be on PS5 unless Jim allows them to put gamepass which is going to open its own can of worms.

I wasn't as gloomy when this thing first happened, but as soon as I saw the figures and how CoD players account for 55% of console players (higher on PS5) and how PS CoD is close to 70% of all COD players, it made me realize just how dire the situation is. I am hardcore player who plays cod for maybe 2 weeks a year. i didnt realize how big it was.

And companies dont spend $70 billion just to acquire one game and to play nice. If it wasnt for Disney's $71 billion acquisition of Fox, this would be the biggest acquisition in tech and entertainment history. Ever. You can look at Apple, Google, Facebook acquisitions. They are in the 2-3 billion range. $13 billion is the biggest. This is not for fun. This is not for content. They wouldve acquired a lot more content by picking up Ubisoft, Capcom, Square, CD Project and Take2 for the same price. This is about turning Sony into Nintendo at best.
 
Mozza

Mozza

Member
ChiefDada said:
Because it's not just CoD that they bought. A lot of the IPs that came with the deal were underutilized by Activision and Microsoft is not only willing to revitalize them, but also extend to a variety of other mediums outside of the console arena. This doesn't mean Xbox gamers won't have perks associated with Microsoft's control of the IP because they definitely will. PS players can kiss all marketing related perks goodbye. But closing off the largest audience from an IP they paid a pretty penny for is counter-productive to Microsoft's long-term goals.

I was going to offer reasons as to why most of your claims don't make sense from a business perspective, but when I read the bolded portion, I quickly realized I'd be wasting my time.
Click to expand...
If you think they are going to keep COD on the Playstation going forward I am not sure what to say, Microsoft have more than enough revenue streams within it's business, so the Playstation portion is hardly bank breaking for them, plus they will be gong for a much bigger console market share this time round, so will make gains there, but at the end of the day it's all about gamepass, and making it as tempting to the widest possible audience.
 
ManaByte

ManaByte

Gold Member
ChiefDada said:
I agree with some of the key points you're making here, but I think your portrayal of Sony's new circumstances is overly pessimistic. Much of this depends in part on when you believe a hypothetical Xbox console exclusive CoD will release. What is your best guess?
Click to expand...
2023 or 2024.
 
ChiefDada

ChiefDada

Gold Member
SlimySnake said:
You dont spend $70 billion to put games on your competitor's platform. That's why I am so certain CoD wont be on PS5 unless Jim allows them to put gamepass which is going to open its own can of worms.

I wasn't as gloomy when this thing first happened, but as soon as I saw the figures and how CoD players account for 55% of console players (higher on PS5) and how PS CoD is close to 70% of all COD players, it made me realize just how dire the situation is. I am hardcore player who plays cod for maybe 2 weeks a year. i didnt realize how big it was.

And companies dont spend $70 billion just to acquire one game and to play nice. If it wasnt for Disney's $71 billion acquisition of Fox, this would be the biggest acquisition in tech and entertainment history. Ever. You can look at Apple, Google, Facebook acquisitions. They are in the 2-3 billion range. $13 billion is the biggest. This is not for fun. This is not for content. They wouldve acquired a lot more content by picking up Ubisoft, Capcom, Square, CD Project and Take2 for the same price. This is about turning Sony into Nintendo at best.
Click to expand...
It's funny, I agree with almost all of reasons you've listed as to why this is a big deal, yet come to a completely different conclusion. For their last fiscal year, Activision (not just CoD) made $3 billion in operating profit. If the deal closed tomorrow and Microsoft continued to sell CoD at premium prices to both PS and Xbox players via premium pricing (that's substantially more revenue than subscription, not less) AND Activision's other ventures performed the same, it would take over 20 years for the $70 billion deal to break-even. Now imagine excluding PS Players and transitioning to subscription revenue model. The investment doesn't even make sense at that point. This is NOT about CoD , this is much bigger than consoles. Phil Spencer made that clear in his recent interview; if Activision wasn't bought, Google, Apple, etc. could have purchased.

Dr Bass said:

Sony to lose $260 million a year if Call of Duty goes Xbox exclusive​

Sony will lose up to an estimated $260 million a year if Call of Duty leaves PlayStation and becomes a full Xbox exclusive. www.tweaktown.com
Click to expand...

You have to put this into context and exclude hardware revenue: PS gaming software revenue was ~ $14billion and a decent chunk will come from first party games that had significant development costs, whereas $260 million (assuming this report is accurate; the report doesn't say how the figure was calculated) is mostly, if not 100% licensing which has virtually no costs with the exception of marketing deal which is much less significant and less burdensome on profit margins than aforementioned dev costs. Also take into account that this just one franchise. 1% is a big number when a platform is selling hundreds maybe thousands of different games. It is a big deal for Sony to lose this money.
 
Warablo

Warablo

Member
Ya, I think people gotta remember to make those high quality story tps games require a lot of time, crunch and budget. Who knows how much profit they even make without any DLC or microtransactions to help off set the cost.
 
Last edited:
C

clintar

Member
Well based on the this forum, half of them will probably sell their PS5 and go Xbox only now. Then again, I guess a bunch will sell their series s out of spite
 
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Lognor

Lognor

Banned
SlimeGooGoo said:
When they move to the cloud only, then yes. For this generation, no, not worth it.


COD won't be exclusive to Xbox for this gen. Thus, they won't move.
Click to expand...
COD WILL be exclusive this gen. Probably 2024 if I was guessing. People will start moving now though since it's inevitable and at this point most people who are interested have not been able to get an xsx or ps5. With this news a lot of people that would have gotten a ps5 will instead get an xsx. And then cod will be exclusive all next gen. We will start seeing the effects of this acquisition now.
 
J

Jibran#one

Member
Sales chart and data is so useless at this point tbh , ps5 is literally impossible to buy at this moment , in my country u can easily get a ps5 but for like 2.5x the price which is ridiculous
 
ChiefDada

ChiefDada

Gold Member
ManaByte said:
2023 or 2024.
Click to expand...

It's not practical. The GP subscriber count isn't enough to support a CoD console exclusive similar in scale to Vanguard. I'm sure the aim is to get there in the future, and they will eventually, but not that soon. The earliest possibility for an console exclusive CoD is next generation. Even still, that would be antithetical to what Xbox is trying to do.
 
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