• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Analysts expect Switch to outsell PS5 and Xbox Series consoles in 2021, boosted by new ‘Pro’ model

BPX

Gold Member
All nice and dandy but are we getting a Nintendo account in which we can carry over and redownload all bought content.
 
All nice and dandy but are we getting a Nintendo account in which we can carry over and redownload all bought content.
Nintendo ID's have been sunset and the new Nintendo Account is live on Switch. Nothing is tied to the system anymore.

In fact, with cloud backup you can actually lose your Switch to a midwest tornado, move to the beach, buy a new Switch and pick up where you left off immediately while you whittle away the hours nursing frosty drinks in the sun.
 
Last edited:

v_iHuGi

Banned
Yeah that was my prediction back in June already.

Switch will have a massive 2021 just like Ps5 but Switch will narrow ahead thanks to cheaper HW and more stock.

Ps5 will then win 2022/2023/2024 and 2025. Next Gen Switch should be huge with DLSS, impressive handhled graphics so i expect Nintendo to crush anyone from there.
 

Zannegan

Gold Member
10 mil++ new hardware seller games wildcard

MH Rise
BOTW2
Mario Kart 9
New 3D Mario
New Pokemon

Also the past hardware seller evergreen games (AC, MK 8, BOTW, SSBU, Pokemon SwSh) are still selling hard, probably are bought with every new system purchase.
That would be a pretty insane (if disappointingly safe) lineup, but I haven't heard anything about a 3D Mario or MK9 for this year. Pokemon will also likely be a remake, and we don't know BotW2's release date (but I'm hopeful). Each of those has the potential to do 10 mil, easily, but I'm not sure any of those could carry a console mmore or less on its own for a year the way AC:NH did. It was just the right game at the right time and became an absolute sales monster as a result.

It's not that I doubt the Switch's ability to sell software, or vice versa, I'm just hoping they'll have enough (and enough variety in) software to push a Switch Pro, specifically. All five of those games in one year would do it, sure, but what I'm really hoping for is a couple of quirky/core games pushed back by Covid-19, plus their previously planned 2021 lineup. That would be like 2017-part 2.

EDIT:
The moral of the story is 'Anime tiddies sell!'

Tell that to the Vita. =/
 
Last edited:

Nikana

Go Go Neo Rangers!
If they make a pro I will be buying one thats for sure. The price point is just too good to pass up at this point. $199 entry point is a sweet spot.
 

saintjules

Member
not really surprising, the ps5's library is still limited, the price is high, and the availability won't be 100% there yet, the switch should have little trouble outselling it this year, next year should be interesting to see how the ps5 and switch jockey for position.

How is the $399/499 price tag high? Especially when we knew next-gen was coming for over a year prior to release?
 

yurqqa

Member
Came here expecting Michael Pachter.

Wait - there are two of them ?
That's two game analysts too much.
 

Woopah

Member
That would be a pretty insane (if disappointingly safe) lineup, but I haven't heard anything about a 3D Mario or MK9 for this year. Pokemon will also likely be a remake, and we don't know BotW2's release date (but I'm hopeful). Each of those has the potential to do 10 mil, easily, but I'm not sure any of those could carry a console mmore or less on its own for a year the way AC:NH did. It was just the right game at the right time and became an absolute sales monster as a result.

It's not that I doubt the Switch's ability to sell software, or vice versa, I'm just hoping they'll have enough (and enough variety in) software to push a Switch Pro, specifically. All five of those games in one year would do it, sure, but what I'm really hoping for is a couple of quirky/core games pushed back by Covid-19, plus their previously planned 2021 lineup. That would be like 2017-part 2.

EDIT:


Tell that to the Vita. =/
I'm sure Switch will have quirky and varied games, it's just not easy to predict games like that selling 10 million or more.
 

Magog.

Banned
I just hope they plan to launch the pro with a buttload of unannounced games. A spec bump alone won't drive its sales, and they won't get struck by lightning (Animal Crossing) twice.

Plus, I just selfishly want new games with my pro, which I will absolutely buy for its spec bump.

Hmm...

It's Nintendo. You really think they have a "butt load" of unannounced games up their sleeves?
 

Zannegan

Gold Member
It's Nintendo. You really think they have a "butt load" of unannounced games up their sleeves?
Actually, in terms of number of games released, they're one of the most active publishers out there. Compare them to any other publisher, especially MS and Sony...

...but a buttload? Not really, no. Lol. That was hyperbole.

They do have heavier years and lighter years though, and since 2020 was a pretty light year in spite of some heavy hitters, I'm hoping for a little more in 2021. Hoping for, but not counting on.
 

BPX

Gold Member
Nintendo ID's have been sunset and the new Nintendo Account is live on Switch. Nothing is tied to the system anymore.

In fact, with cloud backup you can actually lose your Switch to a midwest tornado, move to the beach, buy a new Switch and pick up where you left off immediately while you whittle away the hours nursing frosty drinks in the sun.

 
A New Switchi Colour Pro model this year, with a slight ram, power and maybe screen resolution bump, that can handle docked graphics in handheld mode, while using DLSS to improve image quality and 4K upscaling, seems doable.

Plus, with their precious upgrade to replacement release pattern, that would likely mean a Switch 2 late 2022 to early 2023, which would prevent a big sales drop once the Switch starts being too weak to run even most smaller/Indie current gen games anymore.
 

Moogle11

Banned
I don't see the business need for a pro. They are selling units fast and they frequently go out of stock still. They make money on the games and accessories and just a little on the system, though more today on it than in 2017. If it is just for the fans that would upgrade their current switch, what is the angle? Get them to upgrade, make more used switches available for new customers? Does it gain them an advantage longer term? Can they keep from launching a switch 2 a couple of years due to a mid gen refresh? I just don't see it really increasing their market share so why waste time designing it when you could spend those resources developing a switch 2?

I think it would:

1. Get money from current owners who upgrade to the Pro as Nintendo always sells hardware at a profit day one.

2. Probably would let them push the launch of a true Switch successor back to 2023 or 2024 and keep profiting from high attach rate games to the huge Switch base for longer.
 

x@3f*oo_e!

Member
Idk how they would even make a switch pro - Nvidia hasn't updated the Tegra line except a chip designed for autonomous driving AI which is totally unsuited. Nintendo would probably have to pay someone for a new design. There isn't even a die shrink of an equivalent chip at a 'modern' node..

Dunno what they are going to use next.

[also you aint getting DLSS - that needs 10s /100s of Watts to work and 10s-100s TOPS - won't transfer to a mobile chip ]
 

spons

Gold Member
lol @ switch 4k. Not native, that's for sure. Unless they mean it outputs 4k. Might as well call it the Switch "8k" then if it comes with HDMI 2.1 out and a scaler chip.

A Switch Pro would most likely be slightly faster than a current gen high end smartphone in handheld mode. Grab any recent Android phone and imagine how it would be without the Android jank running on it. Add a fan when docked and you could do good 1080p.

And obviously they're not going to announce that thing until 20 minutes before its launch since they want to sell units from their current stock first.
 
Idk how they would even make a switch pro - Nvidia hasn't updated the Tegra line except a chip designed for autonomous driving AI which is totally unsuited. Nintendo would probably have to pay someone for a new design. There isn't even a die shrink of an equivalent chip at a 'modern' node..

Dunno what they are going to use next.

[also you aint getting DLSS - that needs 10s /100s of Watts to work and 10s-100s TOPS - won't transfer to a mobile chip ]
Improve the battery and cooling a bit more and max out the existing clocks, that'd be significantly more powerful

plus a 1080 screen in handheld
 

uncleslappy

nethack is my favorite dark souls clone
I'm finally starting to see the need for a Switch Pro model as more and more large games are getting ported to the Switch. I bought WRC8 on Switch as I love just cruising around beautiful vistas with no other drivers. The graphics are horrendous and it's almost unplayable, at least for the reasons I like to play it. I also just booted up the CTR demo last night and the load times are really rough. Around a minute between races and every time you go between the hub world and the races. Switch could really benefit from a pro model.
 

devilNprada

Member
I'm finally starting to see the need for a Switch Pro model as more and more large games are getting ported to the Switch. I bought WRC8 on Switch as I love just cruising around beautiful vistas with no other drivers. The graphics are horrendous and it's almost unplayable, at least for the reasons I like to play it. I also just booted up the CTR demo last night and the load times are really rough. Around a minute between races and every time you go between the hub world and the races. Switch could really benefit from a pro model.

Switch pro with more ports sounds awesome..
Will they get more ports though?
I can't recall games coming out you could play on the PS4 pro and not the Ps4?
Could be wrong though..
 

x@3f*oo_e!

Member
Witcher 3 ports aren't why anyone buys a switch though afaik. And even if they updated it to top-performance-mobile levels today those PS5/Series X ports are still going to suck.

I think it's getting to the point where they need to update to keep parity with mid-range mobile phones - which is where the more suitable games are
 
Last edited:

x@3f*oo_e!

Member
Yeah Switch is going to replicate Gameboy and DS success.

It's still be selling even when the game's look truly awful by anyone's standards. That's my prediction.
 

Ev1L AuRoN

Member
Bought a ps4 in 2014 and didn't bother to upgrade to the Pro. Bought the Switch in 2018 and won't be upgrading for a Pro model either.

This year all I want is a PS5 and a GPU upgrade.

I think is a bad move, just like I thought was a bad move the midgen upgrades. I like the 5-6 years generations. Hope Nintendo wait one or two years before launching their nextgen system.
 

noshten

Member
Its not the Tablet that's getting updated but the Dock, a peripheral computing device. That you can buy if you already own a Switch or Bundled with one.
 

NickFire

Member
I expect the Switch to do well in 2021, but my gut feeling is that Nintendo was the prime beneficiary of a perfect storm in 2020, and now needs to start navigating some much rougher waters. I've experienced many console launches, and the enthusiasm for PS5 was jaw dropping. By no means am I predicting gloom for Nintendo. I just think they face much stiffer competition and won't have the benefit of lockdown induced purchasers, and only virtually obsolete competition.
 
I'll buy a Switch Pro no matter what form it will come in 2021. Unfortunately, the Switch is still selling like hotcakes, so there's little incentive for Nintendo to launch a Switch Pro this year.
 

MagnesG

Banned
I expect the Switch to do well in 2021, but my gut feeling is that Nintendo was the prime beneficiary of a perfect storm in 2020, and now needs to start navigating some much rougher waters. I've experienced many console launches, and the enthusiasm for PS5 was jaw dropping. By no means am I predicting gloom for Nintendo. I just think they face much stiffer competition and won't have the benefit of lockdown induced purchasers, and only virtually obsolete competition.
Good stuff right there.
 

THEAP99

reposts tweets from kids about console wars
That is really sad. Sony made a horrible mistake letting nintendo own this market
 
Last edited:

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I'd be SHOCKED if the Switch Pro is real. I didn't think Nvidia was in the line for making a new mobile GPU like that.
 
I don't see the business need for a pro. They are selling units fast and they frequently go out of stock still. They make money on the games and accessories and just a little on the system, though more today on it than in 2017. If it is just for the fans that would upgrade their current switch, what is the angle? Get them to upgrade, make more used switches available for new customers? Does it gain them an advantage longer term? Can they keep from launching a switch 2 a couple of years due to a mid gen refresh? I just don't see it really increasing their market share so why waste time designing it when you could spend those resources developing a switch 2?
I see lite models in stock at Target EVERY SINGLE TIME I'm there.

$150 lite, $250 standard and $350 pro.

That line will sell like crazy for the next 6 years. Give me a Breath of the Wild, Smash Bros, Kart and Odyssey patch too. Absolutely required.
 
Last edited:

Hudo

Member

If the Pro can provide high resolution Xenoblade then its a day one purchase for me. Detailed world and textures crippled by being displayed at 720p on the Switch. Biggest travesty on the console.
Goddamn, son. That looks quite awesome.
 
Top Bottom