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[LeftThumbstick]

And on occasions you get a Minecraft, PUBG, Rocket League or Among Us that become massive hits. What happens then? Does MS pay them more?

Um I’d imagine so yes?

The more popular a game is, the more they can barter for a better deal or tell MS to go fuck them selves….

 

[Fredrik]

Got to be honest, I played a lot of indie games Soley because they were on gamepass, otherwise I wouldn't have touched.

Yeah talk about biting the hand that feeds them. I haven’t bought an indie game in years, I’ve played a ton though. If there is a problem for devs to make money through Gamepass and PS Now or whatever then that absolutely needs to be fixed but deliberately staying outside of the subscription services in hope for someone to find your tiny games and pay $10 for them on the store is not clever.

The market is changing. I payed $10 to get Uncharted 4 and Uncharted Lost Legacy because I had an UC4 disc collecting dust on the shelf. It was worth the money. Indie devs can’t compete with that and shouldn’t bother doing it either. I’m not buying unless I know what I’m getting, they need to at least publish demos like during the XBLA days, that worked. But paying $10 or whatever for an indie game that might not even have a review is not happening. I have other games to play, I’m definitely gonna play it if it does arrive on Gamepass and seems interesting but I have no trouble ignoring it if it don’t arrive there.

 

[GHG]

I don't know, mate. I take Kena, Limbo, Valiant Hearts, and the likes. So it should be something pretty good. But what I see is mostly turd 8-bit games and shovelware. Is there gem hidden in that mess? Probably, but extremely few. And sorry, high production AAA quality games is what's driving innovation much more than a good indie here and there.

I would rather have those shovelware thrown in a separate category as "indies" so I can avoid them like cancer. If there is a cool game like Sifu or Kena we'll here about them becauss quality has its way to riss above all.

If you end up being made aware of the good indie games then what's the problem? Should I complain about shit like anthem, GTA remastered, battlefield 2042 and the avengers clogging up storefronts?

What you're asking for is to have a heavily curated set of games (as in only tell me what you think I should play), that's essentially what gamepass is. If you want to remove autonomy and discovery from your game selection process then the subscription services are perfect for you.

My point was that indie games clog up the stores with shit. NOT "How can I find the good indie games?".

That's one of the consequences of an open market. But if we take that away then it discourages and creates artificial barriers for individuals and small teams. Can't have it both ways.

 

[Ozriel]

All of you are missing the point!
When MS did not had a steady input of games it relied on indies what it means is now with all those studios acquisitions, they MIGHT not need indies anymore….

I dunno all this is confusing to me.

Makes no sense, since they’re not anywhere close to hitting a cadence of more than 2 AAA games per quarter. They’ll need indies for a very long time to come. And they’re going strong as ever with ID@Xbox.

Indies want to land a big hit that makes the company, not to get a couple peanuts paid up front

There’s no exclusivity condition with Gamepass. None at all. So nothing stopping indies from continuing to sell on Steam, PSN, the eshop and even the xbox store. All of which will benefit from the word of mouth from many players playing it on Gamepass.

Zero issues there

 

[kyussman]

Phil Spencers not going to do anything to harm the video game industry.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Makes no sense, since they’re not anywhere close to hitting a cadence of more than 2 AAA games per quarter. They’ll need indies for a very long time to come. And they’re going strong as ever with ID@Xbox.

But as someone correctly mentioned on page 1, there's a limit to the number of slots (shelf space as it were) on a sub-service, unlike a limitless digital market place, so if the sub-service is re-directing people away from the unlimited market that is bad, as a gatekeeper which ever way you look at it.

There’s no exclusivity condition with Gamepass. None at all. So nothing stopping indies from continuing to sell on Steam, PSN, the eshop and even the xbox store. All of which will benefit from the word of mouth from many players playing it on Gamepass.

Zero issues there

Except when a product is considered worthless, because it is an indie and bundled in a sub-service convincing consumers it is worth something is much, much harder, and worse than normal because you only got peanuts, and then have a devalued product and no money in exchange for having devalued it.

Nintendo don't ever devalue their products, and that type of polished-AA gameplay driven games is what they are trying to emulate IMHO

 

[Yoboman]

No worries, I would like to comment that it isn't uncommon for different writers for one site to have different opinions.


As always, it depends on the contracts that they have with the platform holders. Some indie games gets paid largely as a single fee, some will be based on engagement and some will be a combination.

Problem is every dev will now be sharing a % of the profit derived from subscriptions

Thats a finite pool of money that will stifle growth unless that subscription service is making more money than all first and third party games combined on the platform are doing now

 

[reksveks]

Problem is every dev will now be sharing a % of the profit derived from subscriptions

Thats a finite pool of money that will stifle growth unless that subscription service is making more money than all first and third party games combined on the platform are doing now

That pool of money doesn't have be limited to the gamepass subscription revenue. Microsoft could invest the money from F2P mtx into Gamepass (just like they do for id@xbox).

Also its not a zero sum game between indies within Gamepass. One games success doesn't mean that it has to come at the expense of another as long as there is growth. At some point, it might be a zero sum game.

 

[Neofire]

Game pass is a haven for indie games. I'm one of those people tat played humans fall flat on gamepass when i never would have tried it before.

People wouldn't need GP if they just released a demo and you playing it on GP or anyoyfor that matter doesn't mean they are going to like it.

It's a gamble at best and a demo would have the same effect imo on top of not just being relegated to just the Xbox platforms.

 

[Yoboman]

That pool of money doesn't have be limited to the gamepass subscription revenue. Microsoft could invest the money from F2P mtx into Gamepass (just like they do for id@xbox).

Also its not a zero sum game between indies within Gamepass. One games success doesn't mean that it has to come at the expense of another as long as there is growth. At some point, it might be a zero sum game.

But you're then cutting down on another revenue source to sustain this one.

Take Rocket League for example. They took a lump sum from Sony to have it free at launch on PSN. It blew up, millions of downloads for free. They eventually recouped that because they went on to sell it at full price. But imagine that situation if it was locked in that model forever. The only way to make more money would be loading the game with MTX

 

[Chukhopops]

But you're then cutting down on another revenue source to sustain this one.

Take Rocket League for example. They took a lump sum from Sony to have it free at launch on PSN. It blew up, millions of downloads for free. They eventually recouped that because they went on to sell it at full price. But imagine that situation if it was locked in that model forever. The only way to make more money would be loading the game with MTX

But games aren’t blocked forever on GP unless the dev is first party, they either leave at some point or get renewed with a new deal (like Dead Cells or Descenders on GP). Also they aren’t exclusive to MS past a couple months (Deaths Door is on Switch, The Ascent will be multiplatform, etc).

 

[Ozriel]

Except when a product is considered worthless, because it is an indie and bundled in a sub-service convincing consumers it is worth something is much, much harder, and worse than normal because you only got peanuts, and then have a devalued product and no money in exchange for having devalued it.

Nintendo don't ever devalue their products, and that type of polished-AA gameplay driven games is what they are trying to emulate IMHO

Nobody considered the Ori and Cuphead ports for the Switch and the PS4 to be ‘devalued’ because they were on Gamepass first. MLB launched on Gamepass last year and still sold record numbers on PlayStation. Hades launched on Xbox Gamepass and still sold well on PS4.

High prices doesn’t mean anything in terms of value. Destruction all stars was originally meant to launch at $70…

 

[reksveks]

But you're then cutting down on another revenue source to sustain this one.

Take Rocket League for example. They took a lump sum from Sony to have it free at launch on PSN. It blew up, millions of downloads for free. They eventually recouped that because they went on to sell it at full price. But imagine that situation if it was locked in that model forever. The only way to make more money would be loading the game with MTX

You are not really cutting down revenue maybe profitability. I am not 100% on your argument though, what's the first revenue source and whats the second? F2P games and Gamepass? there is no indicator that it's currently a zero sum game specifically for a platform, users numbers can growth and so can ARPU. Spartacus is more of a move to increase ARPU and Gamepass is a move to increase MAU.

it's all about arbitrage. If you can increase MAU and their associated revenues (MTX/DLC/Full games) then you are afford to spend on Gamepass deals, obviously you aren't maximising profitability.

Rocket League went F2P because it became a hit, Sony could have recouped their upfront via MTX but that was introduced in 2016. I am not 100% sure on the timeline. RL doesn't different too much from a first party GAAS releasing on a subscription service honestly.

 

[Yoboman]

But games aren’t blocked forever on GP unless the dev is first party, they either leave at some point or get renewed with a new deal (like Dead Cells or Descenders on GP). Also they aren’t exclusive to MS past a couple months (Deaths Door is on Switch, The Ascent will be multiplatform, etc).

Im talking about a hypothetical in the future where Gamepass like subscriptions are the default model for consuming games

Games don't have an alternative like cinemas and concerts to boost up the lowered revenue when losing point of sale purchasing to a subscription service

 

[assurdum]

Phil Spencers not going to do anything to harm the video game industry.

 

[Yoboman]

You are not really cutting down revenue maybe profitability. I am not 100% on your argument though, what's the first revenue source and whats the second? F2P games and Gamepass? there is no indicator that it's currently a zero sum game specifically for a platform, users numbers can growth and so can ARPU. Spartacus is more of a move to increase ARPU and Gamepass is a move to increase MAU.

it's all about arbitrage. If you can increase MAU and their associated revenues (MTX/DLC/Full games) then you are afford to spend on Gamepass deals, obviously you aren't maximising profitability.

Rocket League went F2P because it became a hit, Sony could have recouped their upfront via MTX but that was introduced in 2016. I am not 100% sure on the timeline. RL doesn't different too much from a first party GAAS releasing on a subscription service honestly.

Rocket League would have died because the upfront cost Psyonix got nowhere near covered the success they achieved

Only having it full priced on Steam saved it at the time.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/rocket-leagues-ps-success-nearly-killed-it-steam-saved-the-day.1202458/

While stuff like this is great for the consumer saving a few bucks. It really makes it a zero sum game, if you sell on a subscription service you NEED microtransactions. And RL was particularly great for a long time because they resisted MTX

So that's my real concern. That these indie booms will dry up or if they do happen the revenue the devs are making won't be sufficient for the level of success they have

 

[mejin]

If you are not a subject of the king. you are out.

No, I really don't. I've seen plenty of articles written about Microsoft and Sony. Plenty good. Plenty bad. Pretending the BBC wouldn't write this article if it were Sony gobbling up publishers is just absurd. This constant victimization of Microsoft is even more absurd.

poor trillionaire global corporation. it just wants to be loved.

 

[reksveks]

if you sell on a subscription service you NEED microtransactions

Unless you go the route that certain creators in the TV/Movies space goes and keep selling to the platform holders. It does take some power out of your hands.

 

[Three]

Boyfriend Dungeon launched on Gamepass, so I'm not sure.

It's pretty simple if you read the article. As MS buys up big publishers it would have to rely less on promoting/paying for indie releases on gamepass and would spend more time promoting its internal studio games. People are buying less games and MS directly getting all the gamepass subscripion money as well as controlling the content on gamepass would mean small devs are at the mercy of MS to get any kind of interest/marketing or revenue for their games. That's all they are saying.

TLDR:
Declining game sales, dominating single revenue stream to MS directly where they're publishing most games = possible trouble for small independent devs to be relevant.

 

[Chukhopops]

Im talking about a hypothetical in the future where Gamepass like subscriptions are the default model for consuming games

Games don't have an alternative like cinemas and concerts to boost up the lowered revenue when losing point of sale purchasing to a subscription service

So a future where there is no storefront at all to buy games? Where there’s no physical release or third party sellers for keys?

A bit of a stretch when HBO was created almost 50 years ago and you can still buy their production in Blu-Ray boxes if you want to.

People keep seeing the subscription model as a binary where either it completely collapses or it gobbles the entire industry. And it won’t be either of those.

 

[Three]

So a future where there is no storefront at all to buy games? Where there’s no physical release or third party sellers for keys?

It's not increased consumption it's changing how people consume

 

[Yoboman]

So a future where there is no storefront at all to buy games? Where there’s no physical release or third party sellers for keys?

A bit of a stretch when HBO was created almost 50 years ago and you can still buy their production in Blu-Ray boxes if you want to.

People keep seeing the subscription model as a binary where either it completely collapses or it gobbles the entire industry. And it won’t be either of those.

And this is pre COVID. the differences will be even bigger now

Its inevitable. Music went that way, movies went that way. Game are next with the way things are currently trending

Problem is you can remove that box office line for games. Maybe replace it with MTX revenue

Movies have already become of poorer quality as a result. We either have streaming series or sequel factory movie studios which have taken over the landscape because the current economics dont allow for the types of movies that used to be made

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Indie developers:
We're worried that every game that isn't selected by services like Gamepass will have no chance in the market because we don't have large marketing budgets to compensate for that lack of exposure.

Some of NeoGAF:
Shut up indies, Gamepass is great for you because I played this one game from that service, so I know better!

 

[Chukhopops]

It's not increased consumption it's changing how people consume

And this is pre COVID. the differences will be even bigger now

Its inevitable. Music went that way, movies went that way. Game are next with the way things are currently trending

Problem is you can remove that box office line for games. Maybe replace it with MTX revenue

Movies have already become of poorer quality as a result. We either have streaming series or sequel factory movie studios which have taken over the landscape because the current economics dont allow for the types of movies that used to be made

But you can still buy CDs, Vinyls and Blu-Rays if you want to, it didn’t disappear. And the total revenue remained mostly similar if you look at the music industry for example. Box office revenue kept increasing in the years after Netflix launched (but then it collapsed with COVID).

Also it’s conflating a change in distribution methods (digital vs physical) with a change in pricing model (subscription vs purchase). The former will happen and in fact has already for the most part happened. The latter will not happen with the same magnitude and I say that as a proponent of the sub model.

 

[oldergamer]

People wouldn't need GP if they just released a demo and you playing it on GP or anyoyfor that matter doesn't mean they are going to like it.

It's a gamble at best and a demo would have the same effect imo on top of not just being relegated to just the Xbox platforms.

Demos are never good enough. why waste time and money making a demo if that demo has no way to up sell the user?

You're right it is a gamble, but depending on the payment structure the developer chooses. They could be paid a sum up front, or if they are confident get paid based on usage. At the very least the developers have a choice on how the payment structure should look, and that is something they don't get much of with traditional publishing agreements.

 

[Punished Miku]

Indie developers:
We're worried that every game that isn't selected by services like Gamepass will have no chance in the market because we don't have large marketing budgets to compensate for that lack of exposure.

Some of NeoGAF:
Shut up indies, Gamepass is great for you because I played this one game from that service, so I know better!

Death's Door launched on the Xbox store at the height of Gamepass fever last year. Sales wildly surpassed their expectations. Game had almost no marketing.

 

[Yoboman]

But you can still buy CDs, Vinyls and Blu-Rays if you want to, it didn’t disappear. And the total revenue remained mostly similar if you look at the music industry for example. Box office revenue kept increasing in the years after Netflix launched (but then it collapsed with COVID).

Also it’s conflating a change in distribution methods (digital vs physical) with a change in pricing model (subscription vs purchase). The former will happen and in fact has already for the most part happened. The latter will not happen with the same magnitude and I say that as a proponent of the sub model.

Musicians Say Streaming Doesn’t Pay. Can the Industry Change? (Published 2021)

Services like Spotify and Apple Music pulled the business back from the brink. But artists say they can’t make a living. And their complaints are getting louder.

www.nytimes.com

Streaming Platforms are Keeping More Money From Artists than Ever (and Paying Them More, Too)

Musicians may have new reasons to shake a fist in streaming's direction - even if streaming's the big reason the biz is again printing money

www.rollingstone.com

The fact is that the change in models has meant more money for the distributing service and less for the artists, and has fundamentally changed the way both movies and music have had to operate.

I have yet to see how this will be any different for gaming subscription services.

 

[Dane]

Man, some of you guys need to read instead of reflexively defending your favorite platform. This is the very danger I’ve been talking about from the beginning.

If MS disincentivizes purchasing games and succeeds with GP, they become the gatekeeper of gaming. This is so plainly obvious …

Why are people who are actually trying to earn a living via software not allowed to express the dangers of this model without the same tired, and not even relevant, defense? I have yet to see anyone address this. And we have already seen how damaging and ridiculous these kinds of gatekeepers can be with the App Store.

The crux of this article has been apparent since the announcement of the service. But it will be hand waived by the typical crew.

Because it always goes to the same tired "Microsoft is the demon that should never be allowed in the gaming" arguments? Gamepass is a service within a storefront, you can either buy the game or subscribe to play it and other ones on the catalogue.

Being afraid of being thrown under the bus? The industry has a story for this on everyone, Microsoft tought that they could rule over indies and developers over parity and publisher requirement, lost to Sony overnight on the last generation, then Sony tought they could toss them out in replacement for their own AAA and some AA indies exclusivity, the devs moved towards Switch and Xbox One. It is possible that it can happen, can't deny that, companies when they are leading are the biggest assholes.

I vividly remember that people were signing to PS+ on the early years for the "free games" because they were mostly 1-1.5 year old games, plenty of AAAs and some acclaimed indies. And now Sony is changing the PSNow to be more competitive against Gamepass.

And this is pre COVID. the differences will be even bigger now

Its inevitable. Music went that way, movies went that way. Game are next with the way things are currently trending

Problem is you can remove that box office line for games. Maybe replace it with MTX revenue

Movies have already become of poorer quality as a result. We either have streaming series or sequel factory movie studios which have taken over the landscape because the current economics dont allow for the types of movies that used to be made

The graph reminds me that lots of movie rental stores closed down mostly to piracy because streaming was still at its first steps.

The irony is that one place i've seen being praised for different movies was... Netflix? Because these more nichey movies weren't being picked up by studios unless they had a famous director on it, or at least this is what i've been reading, recently Ridley Scott complained that one of his movies was a box office bomb.

 

[Punished Miku]

Musicians Say Streaming Doesn’t Pay. Can the Industry Change? (Published 2021)

Services like Spotify and Apple Music pulled the business back from the brink. But artists say they can’t make a living. And their complaints are getting louder.

www.nytimes.com

Streaming Platforms are Keeping More Money From Artists than Ever (and Paying Them More, Too)

Musicians may have new reasons to shake a fist in streaming's direction - even if streaming's the big reason the biz is again printing money

www.rollingstone.com

The fact is that the change in models has meant more money for the distributing service and less for the artists, and has fundamentally changed the way both movies and music have had to operate.

I have yet to see how this will be any different for gaming subscription services.

I think movies collapsed pre-streaming. People already decided years prior that all they wanted to pay for is Marvel movies at the box office. This was a decade prior to Disney +. Audience choice led to a decline because they simply didn't pay for other movies that often. I checked out of going to the theater after The Hobbit Trilogy. I think I went to see John Wick 2, 3 but that's it.

And Music collapsed pre-streaming as well, due to piracy. The adopted a streaming model late after nearly everyone was used to just literally getting it for free, and the damage was done.

Games don't have a box office, and so far we haven't seen a decline pre-streaming.

 

[Dane]

I think movies collapsed pre-streaming. People already decided years prior that all they wanted to pay for is Marvel movies at the box office. This was a decade prior to Disney +. Audience choice led to a decline because they simply didn't pay for other movies that often. I checked out of going to the theater after The Hobbit Trilogy. I think I went to see John Wick 2, 3 but that's it.

And Music collapsed pre-streaming as well, due to piracy. The adopted a streaming model late after nearly everyone was used to just literally getting it for free, and the damage was done.

Games don't have a box office, and so far we haven't seen a decline pre-streaming.

Low and mid budget represented a significant portion of the distributor's releases during the year, nowadays its a minority, they mostly do that for an extra cash as the big ones represents the bulk. That's why A24 is so praised.

 

[reksveks]

Low and mid budget represented a significant portion of the distributor's releases during the year, nowadays its a minority, they mostly do that for an extra cash as the big ones represents the bulk. That's why A24 is so praised.

Can I 'blame' dvd's and big arse TVs for their decline?

 

[Dane]

Can I 'blame' dvd's and big arse TVs for their decline?

What's with DVD? You mean piracy?

 

[reksveks]

What's with DVD? You mean piracy?

Nah, just the ease of watching films at home but I should have used VHS cause I know the movie industry wasn't happy with that as well.

 

[Banjo64]

I don't know, mate. I take Kena, Limbo, Valiant Hearts, and the likes. So it should be something pretty good. But what I see is mostly turd 8-bit games and shovelware. Are there gems hidden withi that mess? Probably, but extremely few. And sorry, high production AAA quality games are what driving innovation much more than a good indie here and there.

I would rather have those shovelware thrown in a separate category as "indies" so I can avoid them like cancer. If there is a cool game like Sifu or Kena we'll hear about them becauss quality has its way to rise above all.

EDIT: Typos ffs @SpongebobSquaredance

Agree with this Bo, quality rises to the top. Make a good game and people will hear about it and buy it, simple as.

 

[ZywyPL]

To each their own, some indie devs will be happy with the sales they're doing by traditional distribution and/or exclusivity deals, while others will gladly take MS' money for putting the hame on GP, where the games can still be bought separately anyway.

 

[BusierDonkey]

I've played lots of indie games on Gamepass that I would otherwise never have given a chance. Some of them were absolute trash. Most of the ones I rolled the dice on ended up being really good. I have bought other games from studios whose games I played on Gamepass.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Indie developers:
We're worried that every game that isn't selected by services like Gamepass will have no chance in the market because we don't have large marketing budgets to compensate for that lack of exposure.

Some of NeoGAF:
Shut up indies, Gamepass is great for you because I played this one game from that service, so I know better!

Spot on.

 

[Kerotan]

GP has tons of indie games. Also, the majority of games on Xbox are NOT on GP.

Release a good indie game and people will buy it no matter what time of the year. No need for sub plan either. Lots of big hit indie games start out at $10 or $20 selling tons of copies and maybe go sub plan later to get last ditch partnership money.

Sounds like Tanya Short has no confidence in her studio's games to compete.

Good luck getting xbox players to buy in big numbers if it isn't on GP. They've become entitled and expect everything on their monthly sub.

 

[Razvedka]

Embrace, extend, and extinguish - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Microsoft should have absolutely zero good will with any consumer. Naturally these devs are concerned, as they should based on ample historical precedent.

 

[BusierDonkey]

Embrace, extend, and extinguish - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Microsoft should have absolutely zero good will with any consumer. Naturally these devs are concerned, as they should based on ample historical precedent.

 

[justiceiro]

Game pass is perfect for indies. I spent numerous lazy Saturdays trying small indies that I believed I could beat in one sitting.

 

[TonyK]

We need to distinguish between an indie game and all that shit that shows my PS5 when I enter the store. I thought it was a Steam problem because its free market, but it seems that now in consoles we have hundreds of shovelware games monthly.

Why Sony, and I suppose the rest, allow those crappy fraud games to fill their libraries? The problem is not that they hide Horizon Forbidden West or Dying Light 2, those AAA games are always featured. The problem is that barrage of shovelware games make very difficult to find legit indie games, who get buried under tons of amateur attempts of a game.

 

[EverydayBeast]

That deal doesn't matter to smaller devs yes everyone isn't a behemoth like Actvision smaller developers survive that's a fact.

 

[Evil Calvin]

Shes talking about the future of gamepass and what that might possibly mean for indie games down the line. I feel like I have to mention that since some of you dont read. There are some valid points here. The spotify comparison, while unlikely, kind of puts what she means better in perspective.

Only a small percentage of Indies are on GP. Ones that MS has deals with. A lot are on there to buy. There are a lot on PS5. There are a lot (and a lot of shovelware) on Switch and Steam. There will be a lot of Indies on Steam Deck. In fact ever since GP was a thing I have BOUGHT more games than ever on Xbox AND the Switch.

 

[Griffon]

I've played lots of indie games on Gamepass that I would otherwise never have given a chance. Some of them were absolute trash. Most of the ones I rolled the dice on ended up being really good. I have bought other games from studios whose games I played on Gamepass.

Nothing that game demos or steam refunds can't already do, except better because in those cases MS doesn't chose for you what you can and can't try.