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Chip Shortage Will Last Until 2024, Intel CEO Says

Lunatic_Gamer

Gold Member


The ongoing chip and semiconductor shortage, which has been affecting technology across a wide range of products--including game consoles--has been going on for about two years now, but Intel's CEO says we could see it continue until 2024. That could mean continued supply problems on everything from the PS5 to new cars.

Speaking to CNBC, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said the chip shortages have begun hitting the equipment needed to manufacture products, and "some of those factory ramps will be more challenged." The company's previous estimate had the shortage going into 2023, but the volatile nature of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has made it pretty much impossible to nail down a firm date.

Intel is taking matters into its own hands to avoid supply bottlenecks in the future, as it's building a $20 billion chip production facility in Columbus, OH. However, this facility won't actually be operational until 2025, at which point it's possible these ongoing supply issues will no longer be as severe.

Recently, we have seen some improvement in consoles' availability. Though the PS5 is still very hard to find, the Xbox Series X has been easier, with the cheaper Series S routinely available across both online and retail stores. However, even older systems don't seem immune to the supply shortages, with Nintendo even lowering its Switch sales forecast from 23 million units to 20 million units. It had already lowered its forecast previously from 24 million to 23 million.

 

Zeroing

Banned
I am also admired Intel didn’t took the opportunity to take shots at Apple. Because we all know Apple is having top priority on having chips etc for their products.
 
That always seemed silly to me, we don't even have many current generation exclusives.

We haven't even really tapped into the power yet
Without the chip shortage a Pro would make a lot of sense, it's like a premium GPU, if you think about it an RTX 3090 doesn't make that much sense if all you are going to do is play games, but some still want it anyway and pay a premium for it.
 
Without the chip shortage a Pro would make a lot of sense, it's like a premium GPU, if you think about it an RTX 3090 doesn't make that much sense if all you are going to do is play games, but some still want it anyway and pay a premium for it.
These consoles were a lot more powerful than the previous ones if we compare the technology available at the start of each gen. A Pro model 3 years later wouldn't make any sense, specially considering we are still getting cross-gen games almost 2 years after they were released.
 

Celcius

°Temp. member
I may be the only one who thinks so, but MS should make less series S (which is easily available at stores) and more more series X instead. By the time you buy a series S and then later buy more storage (because the OS eats a good chunk of the built in 500gb), you may as well have just bought a series X to begin with and had more power available as well.
 
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unclbenn

Member
Call me a pessimist but I suspect the shortage will end right after it is no longer profitable for there to be a shortage
i know theres a few semiconductor fabs under construction, the industry will start producing more chips soon. its to profitable to not want to try to reach demand.


this article also states his previous prediction of 2023 as well.
 
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These consoles were a lot more powerful than the previous ones if we compare the technology available at the start of each gen. A Pro model 3 years later wouldn't make any sense, specially considering we are still getting cross-gen games almost 2 years after they were released.
The PS4 Pro was pretty much just a regular PS4 with a better GPU, an overclocked CPU and faster memory.

A PS5 Pro with similar improvements would be very feasible still. I think this time Sony could charge a premium instead of going for the same price point.

The chip shortage is the only thing that might stop them from releasing a PS5 Pro.
 
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levyjl1988

Member
Well, the good thing about having this pandemic is that now companies can learn from it and incorporate and factor in to make things pandemic proof.
 
Don't care.

Got a 6900XT at a reasonable price. That GPU should last me a few good years since I play at 1440p.

Looking at minimum and recommended specs for even some of the latest AAA games, I'm not worried that my CPU will bottleneck all that soon. And when it does, I'll just upgrade it.
 

Reallink

Member
elaborate on this. do you think Sony doesn't want to sell more PS5? That fabs want to sell less silicon?

Not the guy you're quoting, but artificial scarcity = price premium. If the fabs can blame Corona outbreaks/lockdowns, raw material shortages, shipping disruptions (etc...) to justify operating under capacity, their customer companies will compete for the limited resource and drive the prices up, up, up. Sony, MS, Apple et.al. have no choice but to pay it, there's no competition to go to and it'd take them half a decade and 30 billion dollars to build their own (not that they could man it once completed, talent pool for cutting edge chip mfg is a few thousand people on the planet, shit is more science fiction that Star Trek). As long as the "shortage" mandated price premium outperforms the increased volume, it's the business model they'll adopt. Not saying this is what's happening, just explaining the logic behind it. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
 
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adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Half of this damn generation's gonna keep getting cross-gen content at this rate.
 

DenchDeckard

Gold Member
I think sales are going to fall considerably soon. I am sure we are heading towards a recession which will slow sales considerably. I think this gen could go down as one of the worst for actual quality fame output but I am keeping everything crossed that i am proven wrong.
 
We'd have a shortage even without Covid, it just wouldn't be as bad. Demand for chips has become insane in the past couple years. Turns out if you want an "internet of things", you need a buttload of chips. Meanwhile, increasing supply takes a long time and is very expensive. It's happening though, by the end of the decade the supply will be much higher. Inb4 we hit the mother of all recessions and all of this doesn't matter anyway.
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
These consoles were a lot more powerful than the previous ones if we compare the technology available at the start of each gen. A Pro model 3 years later wouldn't make any sense, specially considering we are still getting cross-gen games almost 2 years after they were released.

Pro models benefit the console maker more than they benefit consumers by allowing ASP’s to stay high and fight off the expectation of consoles dropping in price fast and cheaper and cheaper redesigns too.

HW cycles, where performance increases every X months by a factor of Y, are and keep on slowing down especially in a console form factor where price is an issue ($499 seems to be the current ceiling and that was a hard battle and optics wise you need to offer $399 or cheaper models too) and power consumption and console sizes are an issue (you cannot afford uber expensive cooling, you cannot afford 300-400 Watts GPU monsters, etc…).

You need more and more time to let manufacturing processes mature, new technical approaches bringing a difference and API’s well thought out to take advantage of them (it likely took many many years for MS and Sony to get their I/O pipelines in a state where it made the difference they expected and developers could use it). It is not just a case of major performance improvements quick wins.
 
People put far too much weight on the estimates/thoughts of a person whose company spent 5 fricken years being stuck on a 14nm process, while everyone else moved on and whose factory can't produce enough wafers to meet demands for his own cpus. Plus let's not forget that Amd is constantly living rent free in his head and he can't resist name dropping Amd at every opportunity. I wouldn't really listen to Gelsinger, that boyscout mentality never got him anywhere.
 
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Shortages on not the chips and consoles will continued to be made, if those are gonna be base or pro models is irrelevant.
I know but there's a reason Series S and Switch are easier to produce than PS5 and Series X.

I really can't imagine Sony going for an even better console hardware-wise for now. Maybe 2024 for a Pro model.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
CPUs have been fine for over a year and GPUs are returning to normal. I think things will be fine for thia sector. Maybe not your smart microwave or whatever, but we should stop wasting chips on dumb stuff like that.
Correct. I can't recall a time in the last couple of years where it was hard to get any CPU. DDR5 memory is the biggest roadblock for Intel right now.
 
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anthony2690

Gold Member
After this report I find it funny that these so-called insider keep getting information on ps5 pro and Series X pro systems.
I wouldn't be surprised if both Microsoft and Sony are both working/messing around with new console ideas whether that is slim or pro models. (But I imagine these are years away regardless)

Pretty sure I've seen in interviews where console makers say they start work on the new consoles after launch of the prior ones.
 

winjer

Member
I wouldn't be surprised if both Microsoft and Sony are both working/messing around with new console ideas whether that is slim or pro models. (But I imagine these are years away regardless)

Pretty sure I've seen in interviews where console makers say they start work on the new consoles after launch of the prior ones.

With companies moving into newer process nodes, it might be enough to release more waffers in the 7nm process node.
So Sony and MS might get a production increase this year, and have more consoles on the market.
On the other hand, with newer process nodes having higher demand, making a slim version of current consoles might get delayed.
We also have to consider that in previous generations, moving to a smaller node meant saving in the cost per transistor.
But now, with increasing costs for each new process node, the cost per transistor is almost stagnant. Meaning there is a smaller incentive to move forward into a slim version.
 

DadEggs

Member
of course the global import/export industry is a massive cluster fck right now and the foreseeable future, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are working the "chip shortage" in to benefit their business plans. theyre currently building some massive factories in the US to bring back most of their production locally and those factories aren't supposed to be ready until 2025 iirc. tying in the shortage helps them alleviate the concerns of lower numbers for investors.
 
Good thing I don't want a PS5. With shortages and technical reviews making console look kind of weak with this gen, I think I'm just going to ride out this generation on PC.

The shortage hitting car production sucks though. I was looking at used cars before the pandemic. Finally had to get one last year and the prices were bananas compared to when I first started looking. Almost twice the price for some models.
 
Well, the good thing about having this pandemic is that now companies can learn from it and incorporate and factor in to make things pandemic proof.
How would they do that? The problem was that there was not enough parts and minerals. Mines shut down due to lack of workers, coupled with increased demand.
The problem isn't the product, there is nothing to make "pandemic proof".
The problem was lack of workers, at the start, and everything going through one factory, with skyrocketing demand do to pandemic.

Really what boggles my mind is why every high end chip was made by one company in Tiawan , and no where else. Why does AMD, Nvidia, samsung and now intel and others all use TSMC when some of them have their own fabs.

The scary thing isn't just gpus and apus for consoles and gfx cards. Its that these chips are in everything now. We seen car prices and wait times explode as they needed the chip. Sitting in warehouses not selling because no chips. They all need them. Its annoying as if they break what you have to wait months to drive your car again. This all caused prices to skyrocket. We seen used cars more expensive then their new model as the new ones were impossible to get (don't know why cars need a 7nm chip to begin with. ECU tech isn't like an apu, my 2011 car has all this, and that im sure wasn't using top end nm chips for the time) .

Really there needs to be more then one fab making chips. OR multiple fabs in multiple countries. Like why aren't we making chips in the USA anymore. We did for decades and now everything goes to china and Taiwan. Is it due to taxes or near slave wages (probably both).

So hopefully they make changes to supply routes and distribution., Chip making, there isnt much to "pandemic proof" that outside of even more automation, and automated mining.
 

Reallink

Member
How would they do that? The problem was that there was not enough parts and minerals. Mines shut down due to lack of workers, coupled with increased demand.
The problem isn't the product, there is nothing to make "pandemic proof".
The problem was lack of workers, at the start, and everything going through one factory, with skyrocketing demand do to pandemic.

Really what boggles my mind is why every high end chip was made by one company in Tiawan , and no where else. Why does AMD, Nvidia, samsung and now intel and others all use TSMC when some of them have their own fabs.

The scary thing isn't just gpus and apus for consoles and gfx cards. Its that these chips are in everything now. We seen car prices and wait times explode as they needed the chip. Sitting in warehouses not selling because no chips. They all need them. Its annoying as if they break what you have to wait months to drive your car again. This all caused prices to skyrocket. We seen used cars more expensive then their new model as the new ones were impossible to get (don't know why cars need a 7nm chip to begin with. ECU tech isn't like an apu, my 2011 car has all this, and that im sure wasn't using top end nm chips for the time) .

Really there needs to be more then one fab making chips. OR multiple fabs in multiple countries. Like why aren't we making chips in the USA anymore. We did for decades and now everything goes to china and Taiwan. Is it due to taxes or near slave wages (probably both).

So hopefully they make changes to supply routes and distribution., Chip making, there isnt much to "pandemic proof" that outside of even more automation, and automated mining.

Fondaries are automated and employ extremely specialized well compensated engineers, not sweat shop assembly line personelle like Foxcon et. al. TSMC's mopping up Intel and Gloflo is primarily down to work ethic and cultural differences, not taxes or cheap labor. These foundaries are the most sophisticated and complex technology on the planet and make a lot of the stuff in science fiction look like children's toys by comparison. Read a high level overview of modern semiconductor lithography.
 
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