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Estimated 2021 console sales numbers

In the GQ birthday puff piece, where all the big Xbox guys were interviewed, they wrote that Series has sold 8 million consoles. If we assume normal journalistic standards, those 8 million are basically officially confirmed. Just a thought.
 

elliot5

Member
In the GQ birthday puff piece, where all the big Xbox guys were interviewed, they wrote that Series has sold 8 million consoles. If we assume normal journalistic standards, those 8 million are basically officially confirmed. Just a thought.
I believe they were just using numbers from zhuge not as some official source from Microsoft
 
I believe they were just using numbers from zhuge not as some official source from Microsoft
They were stating it very matter-of-factly. Same as when they stated that a game's average engagement goes up eight times when added to Gamepass. Assuming normal journalistic standards, this means they checked the numbers with official sources. Otherwise they'd say "estimated" or something similar.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Actually Sony with PlayStation is in more countries than MS with Xbox... or using your words PlayStation reaches more users than Xbox.
I'm not sure what are you talking about at all.

I believe he is saying MS has a broader reach through PC. Silly point, if that's what he is saying, as Sony and Microsoft don't compete directly against each other in the PC space. The only area where Sony and Microsoft are true competitors is with consoles.

They were stating it very matter-of-factly. Same as when they stated that a game's average engagement goes up eight times when added to Gamepass. Assuming normal journalistic standards, this means they checked the numbers with official sources. Otherwise they'd say "estimated" or something similar.

Microsoft does not provide actual console sales numbers to anyone. The "average engagement" definitely sounds like something MS would provide though.
 
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Bryank75

Banned
Switch, the undisputed market leader.

And I guess the Series S WAS a good idea, based on those sales. Guess MS knows better than a bunch of people posting on forums.

I guess but Switch has been out since march of 2017. We are nearing it's 5th year on the market.

While the new consoles have only been out for barely one year.

Still amazing sales for Switch and I have 3 in my house, some great games.
 

Warnen

Don't pass gaas, it is your Destiny!
I guess but Switch has been out since march of 2017. We are nearing it's 5th year on the market.

While the new consoles have only been out for barely one year.

Still amazing sales for Switch and I have 3 in my house, some great games.

currently have 4 switches in my home…

how the fuck did this happen….
 

zaanan

Banned
If we assume normal journalistic standards
lucious lyon wtf GIF
 

Bryank75

Banned
currently have 4 switches in my home…

how the fuck did this happen….

Bro... it just creeps up on you, one day you buy your first and then eventually your addicted to buying Switches.

Your buying them for any and all sorts of reasons... 'this one looks old', 'the new one has better battery', 'there's a switch lite', 'my kid needs one', 'my wife who barely games needs one for some reason' etc etc.
 

cormack12

Gold Member
Global? It was around 2:1... got a bit better late in the gen around 2.2:1.
Of course country by country you will find 1.5:1 (US/UK), 3:1, 4:1 and even 9:1 (Spain?)... I excluded Japan for obvious reasons :p

Was it? Damn, I thiught MS were well behind like. That's much closer than I thought
 

Bryank75

Banned
Switch was released to compete against PS4 and X1X bc WiiU was not cutting it. Switch is gen 8.5, not 9.

Yeah and for me it's more of a handheld, the Lite made it clear that handheld was their main focus I think.

Still great sales though.... very happy we have dedicated handhelds still.
 

Flutta

Banned
Switch, the undisputed market leader.

And I guess the Series S WAS a good idea, based on those sales. Guess MS knows better than a bunch of people posting on forums.

I mean they’re basically ”forcing” people to buy S. If it was such a good idea the system wouldnt be available almost everywhere. Here in sweden for example the S is literally taking up a bunch of store space 🤷🏻‍♀️

Wouldnt be surprised if it gets a price cut soon.
 

Flutta

Banned
Yeah, iphone is such a failure. It's literally available everywhere. Apple is doomed.

This guy, keep making a fool out of yourself. Comparing Iphone to a newly relesed console?? Really 🤯. Thats the best you could muster from that brain of yours?

The only failure here is your understanding of supply and demand. Embarrassing to say the least.
 
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While people like you are worried about sales figures, both MS and Sony are raking in tremendous profits. I'll never understand why a consumer cares at all about sales figures.
You forgot to quote the OP. He created this topic, not me.
Also...i think at least 3 or 4 weekly topics are created about sales per week. I'm sure i'm not the only one commenting on those.

In the end i don't care. Just stating facts if the OP data is right.
 
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Lognor

Banned
What he means is that is easier to find S than X.
Series X is indeed very hard to find.
For sure. X is extremely hard to find. I'm glad I got one at launch. I think it was easier to find one at launch then it is now. It almost seems harder to find a XSX than a PS5 right now. Craziness.
 
You forgot to quote the OP. He created this topic, not me.
Also...i think at least 3 or 4 weekly topics are created about sales per week. I'm sure i'm not the only one commenting on those.

In the end i don't care. Just stating facts if the OP data is right.
No I meant to quote you. If you don't care about sales and my reply doesn't apply to you, right on.
 

Hezekiah

Banned
Someone else wrote about this being a production choice vs a supply constraint. Otherwise, yeah, it would be like an 80/20 split. Big asterisk next to s sales
It's a cheap option for early adopters that Microsoft clearly expected to fly off the shelves, but all indications are that it's not the case. As the generation goes on, the proportion of Series S sales will drop like a stone. They made a big blunder in setting out manufacturing capacity for the two models, especially given the ongoing chip shortages.
 

twilo99

Member
The s might not sell many units, but it doesn't take away from the fact that its a solid little machine at that price point.
 

FrankWza

Member
It's a cheap option for early adopters that Microsoft clearly expected to fly off the shelves, but all indications are that it's not the case. As the generation goes on, the proportion of Series S sales will drop like a stone. They made a big blunder in setting out manufacturing capacity for the two models, especially given the ongoing chip shortages.
Well it is selling well. The point I was making was that it’s more circumstance. There are units available and it’s being produced at a 50-50 clip with series x. I just don’t believe they intended those splits. Especially ahead of their 2 biggest franchises releasing and the fact that the series x is selling for above retail on reseller sites. I think a lot of s sales are just people taking what they can get there hands on and who plan to upgrade when they can get an x later. Otherwise, you’d see the s sell for the same markup that the x and ps5 sell for on reseller sites. The entire industry is booming right now and we’re heading into the holiday season. If they made a digital x sku it would be completely sold out like the disc x and would fetch the same aftermarket markups.
 

Hezekiah

Banned
Well it is selling well. The point I was making was that it’s more circumstance. There are units available and it’s being produced at a 50-50 clip with series x. I just don’t believe they intended those splits. Especially ahead of their 2 biggest franchises releasing and the fact that the series x is selling for above retail on reseller sites. I think a lot of s sales are just people taking what they can get there hands on and who plan to upgrade when they can get an x later. Otherwise, you’d see the s sell for the same markup that the x and ps5 sell for on reseller sites. The entire industry is booming right now and we’re heading into the holiday season. If they made a digital x sku it would be completely sold out like the disc x and would fetch the same aftermarket markups.
Eh, so what do you think happened? I think it was intentional because they were thinking that a $300 magic price point is a great way to get more GamePass subs.

As you says it's selling pretty well in absolute terms, but relatively less so when you look at the other next-gen SKUs and much more widely available.
 

FrankWza

Member
Eh, so what do you think happened? I think it was intentional because they were thinking that a $300 magic price point is a great way to get more GamePass subs.

As you says it's selling pretty well in absolute terms, but relatively less so when you look at the other next-gen SKUs and much more widely available.
I don’t know. The speculation was they may be using the x chips for their cloud servers.
Thy would make sense and limit their retail supply of x. I do think the price point and a were intentional. I just think the splits are off. They would sell as many x consoles as they could make right now. The fact that they are producing 1:1 on the series with their 2 big franchises out doesn’t really make sense.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Nope, Microsoft doesnt release any numbers. They might release relative numbers but that's it.

But yeah, it's all kinda abnormal cause both are supply constrained.

Since both are supply constrained, what do these numbers tell you so far? And what would you guess "could" happen once supply is back to normal?
 

Marty-McFly

Banned
Yeah reading posts on how the good old 2017 outdated Switch is "next gen" almost made me spit out my water.
Metroid Dread is the most next gen game I've played from a gameplay perspective all year and it looks great too.

I have a good gaming rig, a PS5 and a Series X at this point as well.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Looking at Sony's revenue every quarter and how it also almost doubles Xbox it's not like Sony need to release on PC or have the user reach MS has apparently.
That said, having these games restricted to a single platform is such an outdated concept in 2021...and Sony knows that.

I will never stop playing on consoles but i really can see why both MS and Sony are doing what they are doing.

It's not double but 51% more. But even if it was double, it makes the most sense for Sony to release games on the PC. The "ONLY" true question is which games and when should they release.
 

reksveks

Member
Since both are supply constrained, what do these numbers tell you so far? And what would you guess "could" happen once supply is back to normal?
Honestly I think it could inform us about the attach rates for next gen only game but there isn't a huge amount of those if any that's on both platforms.

Nothing comes to mind
 

Bryank75

Banned
It's not double but 51% more. But even if it was double, it makes the most sense for Sony to release games on the PC. The "ONLY" true question is which games and when should they release.

It really does not...

It weakens the entire idea of a walled garden, PlayStation is great because all the parts add up to more than the sum of the parts but when you start screwing around with that mixture, when you start making parts less unique and special, the whole thing could possibly fall apart.

The whole thing stinks of PS leadership not valuing the work it has taken to get sales above 100 million, not valuing each and every customer they gain and taking it all for granted.

I don't know if there is a lot more behind it but it all feels very suspicious....why change something that has made them successful?
Why for barely more than 1 million sales?

What is all the bullshit talk about hundreds of millions playing the games when they can barely sell over 1 million on PC?

Is that worth weakening your entire model?
 
Gap is only going to grow with Xbox allowing you to stream XSX game from you Xbox one now...sales as a metric of competition when all three companies are doing their own thing is kind of outdated.
 
Nope, Microsoft doesnt release any numbers. They might release relative numbers but that's it.

But yeah, it's all kinda abnormal cause both are supply constrained.

Well, Series X and PS5 are supply-constrained for sure. However I've always wondered if Series S is actually supply-constrained and it's starting to seem more that it isn't and hasn't been for a while.

Series S is outselling Series X because MS is producing more units. In my country for instance you can buy a Series S whenever you want, but it's almost impossible to get a Series X, when it's available for purchase (which is not very often) it only lasts a few minutes. But I think way more people would like to get a Series X than a Series S.

Yeah, this was always a back-of-head concern for me with MS's strategy even before the new systems launched. The Year 1 (and at this rate due to supply constraints not just for consoles but GPUs, Year 2) early adopters have always traditionally been hardcore and core gamers. Historically speaking, they don't care as much about price as much as they do the value of the total package.

The problem with Series S from that POV is that even tho it's good value in isolation, it starts to look like a less valuable value proposition against a $399 PS5 Digital. For only $100 more you're getting a next-gen system with all the same specs as the $499 version minus a disc drive. Hardcore and core early adopters are going to be understanding of this and most likely buy accordingly.

With Microsoft, they have had to put in bulk orders for two different APUs, different allotments (and capacities) of GDDR6 memory, two different capacities of internal storage, etc. There's a lot of hard-partitioning of their materials which means they have to bank on certain product demand meeting the supply they put out to the market. But it's been a bit evident for a minute now that the demand is clearly in favor of the Series X, not so much the Series S, and that's probably being reflected in the numbers here. Yes the stories about Series S's being constantly in stock in a lot of foreign markets might just be anecdotal accounts, but there's a lot of them, and they can't all be making it up for sake of drama.

Add to that Microsoft were buying up a lot of Series X units themselves to put into Azure and that has probably made Series X incredibly supply-constrained relative to its demand. I'm convinced that while some of the Series S buy-in is out of genuine enthusiasm and desire to have a Series S even with all other options present, a decent chunk of Series S' are also probably being sold to people frustrated they can't get a Series X (or PS5), can't get a new GPU at an affordable price, and want a next-gen system at a good price. Series S units are generally available at MSRP and there's been a decent number of reports of them being put at discounts in certain foreign markets, you have to ask yourself if demand was super-strong for Series S would it need those discounts in Year 1?

I'm personally probably going to get a Series S because I'm rolling PC this gen primarily, but that's not going to be a scenario for everyone.

I personally think these numbers don't really have much weight. Selling hardware is a means for selling software. Nothing more. Its the reason MS decided to release day 1 on PC.

Gamepass subs combined with PC/console sales is doing well for them. since the first xbox console MS has done a good job with game attach rate.

I guess what I'm saying is high console sales, doesn't translate directly to higher software sales in all instances. Until last gen, it was the only way to measure the sales potential for titles. There are 100+ million PS4 systems but not a single game that has hit 50 million units on the platform to my knowledge.

Bolded is definitely true and we can see there's no linear relationship with hardware sales to software revenue just looking at Sony's PS fiscal results compared to Xbox's or Nintendo's, but hardware sales do still have some importance in that non-linear relationship, especially for a company like Nintendo who profits off hardware sales, a model Sony's seemingly trying to copy now, too.

For example you would think an over 2x hardware install base would get a division over 2x revenue but for PS that percentage is actually closer to 45% - 62% more venue. That's still great tho particularly if you're not bleeding money on hardware sales, since it means you can push bigger net profits once all is said and done. Another advantage of hardware sales is the platform holder getting a 30% cut on all 3P software sales on that console; to my knowledge for services like GamePass there isn't a direct equivalent to that slice of the revenue stream for subscription models, you "just" get the subscription revenue and a cut on DLC & MTX sales for games on the platform but both of those are also served with a non-subscription model, which gives you that 30% cut in addition.

Quest 2 sold more units than Series?
What was the number of chips microsoft sent to support the Cloud?

Probably a lot. Wouldn't be surprised if a couple or so million Series X units were specifically sent to Azure servers around the world, for example.

I thought fanboy threads where banned? 🤷‍♂️

The thread itself isn't necessarily fanboyism, it's just reporting on some sales information. But there's definitely some fanboys taking advantage of it ITT, including the very first response. Fanboys are always quick to eat bait, even if the bait isn't bait.
 

Marty-McFly

Banned
Gap is only going to grow with Xbox allowing you to stream XSX game from you Xbox one now...sales as a metric of competition when all three companies are doing their own thing is kind of outdated.
Who's own thing is doing better numbers is the basis for this analysis, always will be.
 

reksveks

Member
Well, Series X and PS5 are supply-constrained for sure. However I've always wondered if Series S is actually supply-constrained and it's starting to seem more that it isn't and hasn't been for a while.
I think it isn't as well in alot of markets, I don't think it's the strongest markets though. I don't know about the US so it would definitely be interesting to see,. To me the real question on the series s is how does it do over xmas/gifit periods in the stronger xbox markets.
 
It's not double but 51% more. But even if it was double, it makes the most sense for Sony to release games on the PC. The "ONLY" true question is which games and when should they release.
Honestly their multiplayer games like Factions should be released on PS4, PS5 and PC day one.
They are watching all these profit numbers for these games out there and they want that as well. You can't have a Fortnite / Minecraft sized hit by restraining a game to a single platform.

I'm still honestly "shocked" how something like Dreams is a PS4 only release tbh. I look at that and it's begging for a PC release.

But this is Sony...they released Destruction All Stars for PS5 only. I still don't know what they were thinking. Even if the game was good, something like that at full price and released on a new piece of hardware was always going to be suicide.
 
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I think it isn't as well in alot of markets, I don't think it's the strongest markets though. I don't know about the US so it would definitely be interesting to see,. To me the real question on the series s is how does it do over xmas/gifit periods in the stronger xbox markets.
True; if Series S has a big sales boon over the holidays then all's good. However in such a case I hope it gets Microsoft to focus on Series X production outside of the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday periods, because for the rest of the year demand would seemingly be much more in favor of X over S.

If Series S doesn't see that big a sales boon in the holiday period then maybe the idea of releasing a weaker companion console out of the gate wasn't a great idea. On the flipside, they can just shift production to Series X and re-introduce the S in volume potentially in the 2023-2024 time frame or just shift its purpose to a low-power GamePass streaming box.

Either way there's lots of flexibility for Microsoft and Xbox division as a whole will still continue to do very well with revenue, which is ultimately what's most important. But it does give some interesting food for thought.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
So this isn't supposed to be including 2020 sales or what?

Nothing but guesswork I guess, since MS doesn't provide these numbers.
 
All the hype, changes, good PR team for years...all for a 50% gap once again.

And yet the sales estimates do absolutely nothing to change the reality of what Xbox owners have and can reliably look forward to. Xbox owners are playing Forza Horizon 5, are Halo Infinite's amazing multiplayer right now, will play its amazing Campaign in less than a month. Xbox owners can enjoy the consistently amazing and rising value of Game Pass, the increasingly impressive cloud based offerings from Xbox that adds versatility and convenience, excellent industry leading backwards compatibility support, and we have a shit ton of amazing games to look forward to that includes Elder Scrolls VI, Starfield, Redfall, Perfect Dark, Fable, Hellblade 2, Avowed, The Outer Worlds 2, Indiana Jones etc.

So while you're busy patting yourself on the back over some sales estimates, the reality is actually leaving you behind. Xbox is no longer just about consoles sold, though it's important. Xbox's strategy is across consoles, PC, smartphones and the cloud. You think these estimates account for the fact Xbox just finished having its largest launch in Steam history? Do they account for Forza Horizon 5 having almost 10 million players worldwide alreaddy so soon after its official launch? You think Microsoft cares if all 9 million of those players or all these Halo Infinite Multiplayer players are playing on Xbox Series consoles? They just want them buying and playing period.
 

Unknown?

Member
And yet the sales estimates do absolutely nothing to change the reality of what Xbox owners have and can reliably look forward to. Xbox owners are playing Forza Horizon 5, are Halo Infinite's amazing multiplayer right now, will play its amazing Campaign in less than a month. Xbox owners can enjoy the consistently amazing and rising value of Game Pass, the increasingly impressive cloud based offerings from Xbox that adds versatility and convenience, excellent industry leading backwards compatibility support, and we have a shit ton of amazing games to look forward to that includes Elder Scrolls VI, Starfield, Redfall, Perfect Dark, Fable, Hellblade 2, Avowed, The Outer Worlds 2, Indiana Jones etc.

So while you're busy patting yourself on the back over some sales estimates, the reality is actually leaving you behind. Xbox is no longer just about consoles sold, though it's important. Xbox's strategy is across consoles, PC, smartphones and the cloud. You think these estimates account for the fact Xbox just finished having its largest launch in Steam history? Do they account for Forza Horizon 5 having almost 10 million players worldwide alreaddy so soon after its official launch? You think Microsoft cares if all 9 million of those players or all these Halo Infinite Multiplayer players are playing on Xbox Series consoles? They just want them buying and playing period.
Yawn... This is about consoles, everything else is irrelevant.
 
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