• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

[Forbes] Steam Deck Won’t Survive 2025 Without A Significant Upgrade

Topher

Gold Member
I love the Steam Deck for everything that it is: an industry-defining form factor, a comfortable and intuitive handheld PC, and a gargantuan leap forward for Linux gaming. Every time I pick it up and play something, I feel the years of R&D and iteration Valve put into this device. I appreciate the many successes and failures that informed its final design. But as we start staring down the end of 2024, it’s time to face reality. The Steam Deck won’t survive another year without a meaningful performance upgrade.

0x0.png


Technology moves forward at light speed, and that’s especially true in the PC gaming space. Only 2.5 years ago, my Steam Deck review was subtitled “An Unrivaled Portable Gaming Powerhouse.” It began with this sentence: “The Steam Deck is truly peerless and exists in a class all its own.”

Time has swiftly erased any truth in those statements.

A Crowded Market With Demanding Games​

With the likes of Lenovo, Asus, MSI, and now Acer challenging Valve for handheld dominance — not to mention smaller contenders like OneXPlayer and Ayaneo — consumers are now spoiled for choice. And if those consumers place the most importance on raw gaming performance (not an unreasonable expectation), the Steam Deck could be considered irrelevant by next year.

When Valve and AMD debuted the Steam Deck’s semi-custom Aerith APU in 2022, it was a revelation. No one expected that thing to even run a game as demanding as Cyberpunk 2077. Certainly no one expected it to handle DOOM Eternal on Ultra quality. With a steady influx of software magic like systemwide FSR, frame pacing optimizations, and rapid improvement of the Linux graphics stack, the Deck’s performance remained impressive through 2023.

In 2024, however, we’re beginning to see our beloved Deck losing steam (sorry).

It’s not even a question of the performance delta between Steam Deck and its rivals (but we’ll get to that). The question that will negatively impact future sales is “can Steam Deck run X game at all?” Sure, we know it can’t run games incorporating certain anti-cheat systems, but Windows can be installed to circumvent that. The core issue is: does it have the power to deliver minimum playable framerates for the upcoming games you’re excited about?

In the last month alone, we’ve seen three disappointing examples of games that are too demanding for the Deck. Star Wars Outlaws is unplayable on Low settings, even with FSR set to “Ultra Performance.” Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 can’t reach a steady 30fps at the lowest quality setting. And based on the demo, Final Fantasy 16 is unplayable without FSR and Frame Generation, and afflicted with stuttering and horrible frame pacing with those scaling features enabled.

The frequency of cases like this will only increase.

The AMD Ryzen Z2 Extreme Story​

During the past few weeks, a lot of hardware news has emerged that helps us piece together what 2025 holds for handheld gamers. We’re in for some awesome leaps forward in performance. But first, let’s establish where handheld gaming is right now.

Considering the Steam Deck APU’s lean 15W power limit, Valve’s device holds its own admirably against the ROG Ally and Legion GO. At least when the competitors are also restricted to 15W.

But even at 15W, the ROG Ally’s Z1 Extreme processor often has a noticeable advantage. In a game like Forza Horizon 5, it outperforms the Steam Deck by almost 25% at similar resolutions (1280x800 vs 1280x720). With the added boost of power using the ROG Ally’s 25W Turbo Mode, that lead surges forward by nearly 70%.

A general rule of thumb is that if Steam Deck can render 45fps for a game at 1280x800, the ROG Ally can match that framerate but at 1920x1080. At 1080p, the Radeon 780M inside the ROG Ally is pushing about double the number of pixels.

Now consider that AMD just announced the Z2 Extreme, which should be headed to market by early 2025. It will likely include the same RDNA 3.5 graphics we see inside the Ryzen AI 300 series. That would be the Radeon 890M. Let’s explore that.



In the video above, the Radeon 780M is pitted against the Radeon 890M. When both processors are restricted to 20W, the Radeon 890M is up to 37% faster than the Radeon 780M in the Ryzen Z1 Extreme.

Imagine your ROG Ally or Legion GO games running 37% faster. That would be a significant generational upgrade.

The Intel Lunar Lake Story​

But then there’s the growing buzz surrounding Intel’s Lunar Lake. Intel claims the Arc Xe2 integrated graphics inside its new processors (which begin launching in late September) boast 16% faster performance than AMD’s best, which is currently that Radeon 890M.

Screenshot 2024-09-03 104716

Intel is claiming the crown in integrated graphics performance.


MSI has announced that the follow-up to its unsuccessful Claw A1M handheld will adopt Lunar Lake, which should put its performance above the ROG Ally and Legion GO. (I’ll have a much clearer picture of how Lunar Lake stacks up later this month after hands-on time with the new processors.)

The Sobering Conclusion​

I own a Steam Deck OLED, ROG Ally, and Legion GO. Despite it being underpowered, I still enthusiastically reach for my Steam Deck the majority of the time. That’s simply because it feels better in my hands, and the OLED display is superb. But as more unplayable games get released, that enthusiasm is waning.

As far as SteamOS goes, if you crave the smooth and snappy Steam Deck-like interface, you can install Bazzite on your ROG Ally or Legion GO right now. You’ll get a nearly identical software experience, but with more performant hardware. And soon enough you’ll be able to install Steam OS itself on these rival handhelds.

welcome to steam deck is displayed on an ASUS ROG Ally handheld gaming PC.

My ROG Ally Z1 using Bazzite with the Steam Deck UI



In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if rival handhelds eventually offer both Windows 11 and SteamOS SKUs.

Don’t worry. I can practically guarantee Valve started exploring a Steam Deck 2 even before the original Steam Deck launched in 2022. The runway for console upgrades is lengthy if you want to do it right. You can bet Valve is already prototyping the next generation with various hardware possibilities. Perhaps that monster Ryzen Z2 Extreme? Perhaps another semi-custom solution that once again establishes Steam Deck as the front runner?

Whatever the solution is, the Switch approach won’t save the Steam Deck. What I mean by that is that Nintendo can get away with underpowered hardware because it has a steady stream of exclusives. With Linux under the hood, Valve doesn’t have this luxury. Linux gaming improves by leaps and bounds on a monthly basis, but Valve simply can’t afford to keep existing in last place when it comes to core specs and performance.

What do you think?



Gabe and Nintendo are a lot alike in that they both march at their own cadence and isn't necessarily going to match that of others. I think Valve's focus right now is making Steam OS something other manufacturers want to support in their handhelds. While it is true that Valve is in last place as far as handheld power is concerned, they are at the forefront on price. No other manufacturer sells a Windows handheld at a $399 base price (unless I've missed it). The only one that comes close is the Rog Ally Z1 non-extreme which will sometimes go on sale at $399, but usually costs $499. I do think that the article is right in thinking that Steam Deck will need a spec upgrade by next year, but I also think maintaining the current base price point will largely dictate how much of an upgrade we see.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
Also since the Deck relies heavily on Proton, I pretty much dismiss any performance reviews of it based on just-released games, as over the months Proton advances generally result in substantial framerate improvements on popular underperforming titles.
 

Quasicat

Member
I love my Steam Deck, but I primarily use it for Mass Effect Legendary Edition, Fallout 3/New Vegas, and streaming games on Xbox Cloud Gaming and PlayStation Plus premium. I think my Steam Deck will be fine for a while.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Love mine. 2026 is the earliest I’d like to see a successor. Plays some awesome games like RDR2, the next one has to be powerful enough to play GTA 6 eventually in my view.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
With any device, you're better served by playing the games it does run well instead of playing the ones it does not. Whether the number of games it can play well vs its cost to purchase is worth it, won't change too much unless you no longer wish to play those games. You quickly learn to stop chasing every new release when you have 10,000s of games that have been released you could play instead, likely at a fraction of the price too.

If the argument is the Steam Deck is a bad device to buy today or in 2025 specifically to play newly released PS5-level games, that's probably a pretty sound argument for the most part. But it doesn't mean the Deck is a bad device for playing all the games prior to that which it does well. I don't know about you, but I've long since conceded there's simply no way to play (and even replay) all the games that are released I might be interested in. Even if I played 10 hours a day, I doubt I could play through 1/10th of the releases that I'd enjoy playing.
 

RCX

Member
The deck taught me that top tier performance isn't as important as i thought it was.

"AAA" mostly sucks these days and SD runs everything else just fine.

Valve can take their time and look to late 25/early 26. Upgrades I want aren't really about performance. better battery, higher refresh screen, slightly elevated FPS, same resolution and I'll be happy
 
Last edited:

HogIsland

Member
We live in a world where Nintendo Switch, with outdated hardware at launch in 2017, is still going strong. A Steam Deck won't play the highest end UE5 games in 2025, but it's still a wildly useful game system. Tactical Breach Wizards is a PC exclusive, and excellent reason to own a Steam Deck.
 
Last edited:

Hookshot

Banned
The "Switch killer" won't even live as long as the Switch despite coming out 5 years later?

It's not going to last 3 years? Damn I feel bad for Gabe.
 

Parazels

Member
I've never held Steam Deck, but I saw it and isn't it too big and heavy for a handheld?
 
Last edited:

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
Deck is more than the sum of its parts. It’s a terrific machine for indies, emulation and older or old games.

The screen is sublime, HDR support is robust, haptic touchpads are actually terrific and overall package is just unmatched, along with the fantastic price point even for OLED and robust community support.

Both ROG Ally and Legion Go while being better at hardwares are nowhere near as well-rounded and complete packages, especially with Windows.

Deck will be mighty fine because it’s both balanced in specs and affordable. Valve successfully made a PC with almost console-like experience and this feat was possible precisely because Deck is not about the specs but about the right experience for the right price.
 
Last edited:

Mister Wolf

Member
God damn the downgrade on the screen though, it's a bit rough for me to convince myself to play on that screen. I'd take OLED over it any day. Otherwise a very solid device, even running Windows.

VRR and more power more than makes up for that screen. Can you guys even install mods in games and use Reshade with the Steam Deck?
 

Rosoboy19

Member
It can last several more years as long as Valve supports it via SteamOS. Indie games and retro games work great on older hardware.
I think this is both a strength and a potential weakness of SteamOS, though. For all of Windows 11 flaws, you know Microsoft won’t just drop support for it in a few years. Will Valve ever do that with SteamDeck? I doubt it but…maybe. They have a fickle history.
 
I have an OLED and am more turned off by how gigantic and heavy it is then any performance issues. Games look awesome on it, it's just not super comfortable to play for long periods of time. Every time I switch back to my Switch OLED is a relief on my hands.
 
Last edited:

Hohenheim

Member
Would love a new Steam Deck next year. If it doesn't arrive, i'll probably get the next Rog Ally with the Z2 Extreme when that obviously launches, and get Bazzite on it, making it my own Steam Deck 2.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
VRR and more power more than makes up for that screen. Can you guys even install mods in games and use Reshade with the Steam Deck?

VRR isn't really meant for OLED, and does little for me anyway. In the games I've played on both devices, VRR is the last thing I care about - both devices have no issue hitting 60fps or above on what I've played. I don't use Reshade, but HDR definitely is more noticeable to me on top of the screen. Of course the Deck can use the same mods, there's even custom Deck mod installers for popular games like FFIX and FFVII (original) etc.
 

Mister Wolf

Member
VRR isn't really meant for OLED, and does little for me anyway. In the games I've played on both devices, VRR is the last thing I care about - both devices have no issue hitting 60fps or above on what I've played. I don't use Reshade, but HDR definitely is more noticeable to me on top of the screen. Of course the Deck can use the same mods, there's even custom Deck mod installers for popular games like FFIX and FFVII (original) etc.

So no hiccups getting a mod off Nexus Mods and dropping them right into the proper folders?
 

Kacho

Gold Member
Eh. YMMV depending on the game. The Space Marine 2 devs said they plan to get that game Verified by the end of the year, something I didn’t expect.

The device s still plenty capable and works well as complimentary device to your PC.
 

Fbh

Gold Member
Eh it's still going to be a great device to play older games, emulators and indies. Not to mention there will still be hundreds of indie and less graphically demanding games in 2025 and beyond that will still run on it.

But I definitely think it would be nice to see a Deck 2 before too long.

The "Switch killer" won't even live as long as the Switch despite coming out 5 years later?

It's not going to last 3 years? Damn I feel bad for Gabe.

Last in what sense?
The cool thing about it being Linux/Windows based and being well integrated into Steam is that it doesn't require devs to make games or ports specifically for the Deck.
The deck will get tons of compatible games long after Nintendo and most third party devs have move on from the Switch.
 

grvg

Member
How doable is playing something like Guild Wars 2 on the Steam Deck?
Possible, but the game doesn't have preconfigured controller setups so you will have to do some manual work. You may need to tinker to get it running. Haven't tried it myself. You can also add a kb/mouse on the deck and then it would be like playing on a laptop with a tiny screen (unless you dock it to another screen lol)

Ff14 runs really well once you get it up and running, due to its native controller support. I have first hand experience with this one.

You can probably do similar with wow.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
So no hiccups getting a mod off Nexus Mods and dropping them right into the proper folders?

I dunno I haven't used Nexus Mods since like TESIV. I don't see why there would be issues - it does run Windows and can also communicate with Windows PCs and does have a full desktop mode.
 

simpatico

Member
None of those CringePads from the GPU makers are ever going to outsell the Steam Deck. This author seems to assume that Valve thinks and does business like a publicly traded company. They won't have to scrap the Deck entirely just because it's not flying off the shelf. It's barely even a side hustle. Passion project from a few dudes who work there maybe. The author is just trying to fill out his 4 articles a week quota.
 
Last edited:
I would expect one around November 2026, because that's what the hardware designer at Valve hinted at when asked about a potential Steam Deck 2 back in November last year, about it being a truly generational upgrade, SoC-wise. Around 2 to 3 years, from then.

Till then, they would be happy to support devices like the ROG Ally with Steam OS.
 
Last edited:

Nikodemos

Member
Valve can compete with the rest of the handheld PC market with this one easy trick:

A price cut for the OLED model in spring next year. They're already discounting the LCD for final clearance. Once only the OLED remains, they can cut the price on it as well (though not too soon, as not to anger the people who bought one of the final LCDs).
Literally every other handheld PC manufacturer prices their device really high. Valve can simply compete by offering the cheapest and most polished device on the market. Doubly so in the case of those unfortunate Windows devices (absolute garbo OS).
 
Top Bottom