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GPU shipments Q3 2021 and why they wont ever reach pre covid prices again.

hlm666

Member
Last quarter 12.7 million discrete gpus shipped, while it's not more than the numbers between mid 2016 to mid 2018 it is more than what was shipped from mid 2018 to now yet availability is still pretty much none existent at launch prices.



These days very few people are upgrading their gpu every cycle, with the performance gap reducing from gen to gen NV and AMD will still want to extract as much out of our accounts as possible so they will want the same profit they would get from selling you 2 gpus in a 36 month cycle from 1 gpu in the same time frame, they will probably want more honestly but lets keep it simple. The bad news is AMD and NV have seen what people are willing to pay the last year and the revenue confirms it.

"While 12.7 million discrete graphics cards for desktops sounds a lot, and is more than the number of standalone desktop GPUs sold by the industry per quarter in the recent years, in past years hardware makers could ship well over 20 million discrete AIBs for desktops per quarter. What the computer graphics industry has not seen are the revenues it sees today. Sales of graphics cards reached $13.7 billion in Q3."


After looking at that I'm not sure prices will go back down to what this generation launched at, I expect NV to launch the 4000 series at prices that will make turing look like a bargain and AMD will price around NV like they have the last to cycles. Maybe if they price too many people out and console supply increases that competition may help reduce prices to some degree. Intel have their gpus coming aswell but hoping for Intel to price their hardware much lower/different than whatever performance segment they land in is a long shot.

People are going to claim mining and that is definetly a factor but it was either last quarter or the one before during an investor presentation nvidia used steam numbers to show ampere had more steam users than the same frame time for turing.
Long story short, supply this quarter was the best it's been since Q2 2018 and prices havn't changed and revenue is through the roof. If your holding out for prices to return to normal it's going to be a long wait if it ever happens, maybe start looking at a console to get you through the next 3 or 4 years and hope the gpus next year don't sell at the new crazy launch prices so they course correct on the following cycle.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Mining is a huge factor. I'm fine with my 2080 Super, but honestly considering selling it right now with all the idiots paying way more than its worth. At this point, I simply cannot see myself upgrading my PC anytime soon which makes me more inclined to invest in console gaming.
 

dvdvideo

Member
Ya they can keep the higher prices, not likely getting my cash for at least a few years.
With a ps5, series x, 3060, and a switch plus a steam deck pending, I should be good. (OK maybe a switch pro in 2024 whe nintendo finally decides to launch an underpowered pro)
 

hlm666

Member
Other players should and will get into the profitable GPU market. More supply and prices should go down eventually.
This is happening, but your not going to get someone coming out of left field and offering the performance AMD and NV can, even Intel wont be able to do it.

 

HoofHearted

Gold Member
I won’t be paying exorbitant prices for GPUs anytime soon.. I’ll limp along on my 2080, XSX, and PS5.

I have been building PCs a long time and have never seen GPU prices so high. Quite honestl, considering the crap state of games out there today… I can’t justify spending 1000+ on a current GPU when I can get nearly the same experience on what I have.

Hopefully prices will start to come back down to reasonable prices this time next year, but until manufacturers start making enough to meet demand or mining reduces its dependency on them - it’s going to be a long drought.
 

Grechy34

Member
I won’t be paying exorbitant prices for GPUs anytime soon.. I’ll limp along on my 2080, XSX, and PS5.

I have been building PCs a long time and have never seen GPU prices so high. Quite honestl, considering the crap state of games out there today… I can’t justify spending 1000+ on a current GPU when I can get nearly the same experience on what I have.

Hopefully prices will start to come back down to reasonable prices this time next year, but until manufacturers start making enough to meet demand or mining reduces its dependency on them - it’s going to be a long drought.

100%. By the way you won't be limping with that set up. Have a lot of friends still sticking with PS4/XB1 because of the scalping issues here in AUS and PC's being out of reach for the average person.

I have basically the same set up as yourself but since playing BF2042 I'm starting to think it's only a matter of time my 2080Ti/8700K combo will need to be upgraded to get the most out of PC gaming (I play in 1080P also) If the 4080 line is similarly priced to the current GPU lines I think I'll be out. I've been saying for awhile PC gaming now at a high end level is not becoming viable for the average gamer. It's gotten progressively worse. We'll see as time goes by how far PC's separate from console which as history suggests will definitely start to happen particularly once the 4080 line comes out. As it stands right now though are the 3000 series really worth that much over the PS5/XSX in terms of value to performance. I'm not so sure...
 

Topher

Gold Member
It's part of the plan.

Soon everything will be in the cloud and streamed. And it will be cheap.

Unfortunately.

lol....."it will be cheap".

I'm assuming that was sarcasm with the "unfortunately".

Streaming won't be any cheaper. Corporations will simply make more money.
 
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hlm666

Member
100%. By the way you won't be limping with that set up. Have a lot of friends still sticking with PS4/XB1 because of the scalping issues here in AUS and PC's being out of reach for the average person.

I have basically the same set up as yourself but since playing BF2042 I'm starting to think it's only a matter of time my 2080Ti/8700K combo will need to be upgraded to get the most out of PC gaming (I play in 1080P also) If the 4080 line is similarly priced to the current GPU lines I think I'll be out. I've been saying for awhile PC gaming now at a high end level is not becoming viable for the average gamer. It's gotten progressively worse. We'll see as time goes by how far PC's separate from console which as history suggests will definitely start to happen particularly once the 4080 line comes out. As it stands right now though are the 3000 series really worth that much over the PS5/XSX in terms of value to performance. I'm not so sure...
I'm in aus aswell, you look at the gpu prices on pccg at the moment and it's like wtf the only bright side is they always seem to be instock so hopefully not many of us are paying that shit. The ps5 down here seems even worse than Japan supply wise.
 
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zeomax

Member
This stupid GPU prices will ruin the whole PC gaming ecosystem. I planed to buy a new mainboard, CPU, RAM, PSU and a new case. But now at least five other companies will not get any money from me.
 

jigglet

Gold Member
Inflation. Quantitative Easing.

When it comes to buy my next GPU, I'll be paying the market price. The price is the price. Fuck yesterday, who cares...except for people who are holding cash.

Swallow that bitter pill, there's no other way.
 

Grechy34

Member
I'm in aus aswell, you look at the gpu prices on pccg at the moment and it's like wtf the only bright side is they always seem to be instock so hopefully not many of us are paying that shit. The ps5 down here seems even worse than Japan supply wise.

Yeah gamers down here are doing it rough price wise (and stock wise for sure)
 

Griffon

Member
Well then I'll keep using my 1070 for as long as humanly possible.

I think many gamers will hold onto their GPUs for far longer than before. PC devs will have to take that into account and make games that aren't too demanding in graphics... Which will in turn reduce the demand for new GPUs, and so on.

Nvidia might be banking hard right now, but if the price keep being out of the normal people means, they'll end up with no video games taking advantage of their new cards (I can already see this happening).
 

CeeJay

Member
I won’t be paying exorbitant prices for GPUs anytime soon.. I’ll limp along on my 2080, XSX, and PS5.

I have been building PCs a long time and have never seen GPU prices so high. Quite honestl, considering the crap state of games out there today… I can’t justify spending 1000+ on a current GPU when I can get nearly the same experience on what I have.

Hopefully prices will start to come back down to reasonable prices this time next year, but until manufacturers start making enough to meet demand or mining reduces its dependency on them - it’s going to be a long drought.
Geez, if you are only limping along with that Triforce then I predict that wheelchairs are going to be the next bubble!
 

Vae_Victis

Banned
Prices are ultimately, in the long run, regulated by global supply and demand.

Prices went up a lot because suddenly supply took an abrupt hit at the start of covid (with factories shutting down for months and their supply chains being hit), and at the same time demand went up by a lot (because of a combination of work-from-home, people having more money to spend on house hobbies while going out for recreation was harder or impossible, cryptocurrency mining becoming more widespread, and the launch of PS5 and Xbox Series whose production is bound to steal some time and resources from the production of PC GPUs).

Now even if supply is back to "normal", it still has not made up for the missed production from early 2020, let alone covered the simultaneous massive increase in demand. A backlog of people who are waiting to buy a GPU has been created, and it needs to be fulfilled before we are back to normal. The good news is that manufacturers are trying their hardest to produce as quickly as possible (so they are not contributing through artificial scarcity), because they know right now every single item they put out is an automatically sale but it won't last forever.
 
Discrete GPU prices will come down if:

1a) Bitcoin crashes and burns, bringing down everything else with it.

1b) Governments wake up to the ridiculous carbon footprint of crypto mining and make Proof-of-Work mining and use of PoW crypto illegal.

2) miners flood the 2nd hand market with their cards.
 
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I used to upgrade every year or two but I think I'll buy whatever GPU I need to play stuff like TW: Warhammer 3 and stick with it for the foreseeable.
 

HoofHearted

Gold Member
Inflation. Quantitative Easing.

When it comes to buy my next GPU, I'll be paying the market price. The price is the price. Fuck yesterday, who cares...except for people who are holding cash.

Swallow that bitter pill, there's no other way.
Well certainly there’s that… but GPUs are purely a luxury item… it’s not like you *have* to have a GPU. And while inflation certainly may be part of the equation, the price increases are largely due to manufacturers simply not making enough to meet demand, along with the fact that NVidia practically holds a monopoly on the market (at least until last year).

Hell - my local Microcenter now regularly gets AMD 6xxx series in where I could buy one, but they’re still charging over MSRP by 50%. I have thought about buying one but honestly decided that it’s not worth it. At this point, I’ve reassessed if I really need to upgrade (and I don’t), whereas before I would simply upgrade to the latest GPU every year to two. Personally, I think once the new changes mining come into play… we will potentially see a huge price drop and adjustment in GPUs…
 
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hlm666

Member
Discrete GPU prices will come down if:

1a) Bitcoin crashes and burns, bringing down everything else with it.

1b) Governments wake up to the ridiculous carbon footprint of crypto mining and make Proof-of-Work mining and use of PoW crypto illegal.

2) miners flood the 2nd hand market with their cards.
Why didn't the arse fall out of crypto when china made it illegal? not being a smart arse, legit question I don't really follow any of the crypto stuff. I was under the impression china was where the majority of the mining was happening and it barely seems to have effected crypto value.
 
if prices don't go down then i'm done with PC gaming. nvidia/amd/intel etc can all hike their prices if they want but they can go fuck themselves. i don't mind paying extra for a good quality product...i've spend thousands on my PC but this is beyond ripping the piss.

i'll just grab a Series X when my PC starts struggling.
 

RoboFu

One of the green rats
I hope a lot of people drop pc gaming if prices stay up as it will never go back down unless companies bottom line starts dropping. Then everyone can go back 😁
 

Haggard

Member
Why didn't the arse fall out of crypto when china made it illegal? not being a smart arse, legit question I don't really follow any of the crypto stuff. I was under the impression china was where the majority of the mining was happening and it barely seems to have effected crypto value.
Because china is only one country.
All the big farms simply moved to the neighbouring countries. A few smaller ones dissolved but most players simply moved.

As long as cryptomining is profitable a ban in a few countries doesn`t do squat besides moving the hotspots around.
 
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Why didn't the arse fall out of crypto when china made it illegal? not being a smart arse, legit question I don't really follow any of the crypto stuff. I was under the impression china was where the majority of the mining was happening and it barely seems to have effected crypto value.
Because unlike the original (naive) idea of crypto being a "democratized currency" and "for the people", the reality is that the major mining operations belong the massive financial conglomerates like everything else of scaled up value in this world.

And this meant these people had the power, influence and resources to simply transfer all the operations to countries like Pakistan, Iran, and Texas where they actually reactivated petrol plants to feed the mining.
 

hlm666

Member
Because unlike the original (naive) idea of crypto being a "democratized currency" and "for the people", the reality is that the major mining operations belong the massive financial conglomerates like everything else of scaled up value in this world.

And this meant these people had the power, influence and resources to simply transfer all the operations to countries like Pakistan, Iran, and Texas where they actually reactivated petrol plants to feed the mining.
Fuck me, as an aussie who constantly see's his country being raked over the coals (heh no pun intended) about climate change, not gonna lie that triggered me a little.
 

Spacefish

Member
Combined with modern AAA games being an absolute snooze fest I might just buy a steam deck and say fuck it, I'm 720p retro/indie handheld only. My 1070ti was overpriced and outdated the day i bought it, GPU's just feel like a scam at this point.
 

Thaedolus

Gold Member
Folks, work for some big corporations for a while and you’ll realize there’s no “plan.” Shit happens and supply goes down and prices go up. The pandemic was a big hit in the nuts and everyone’s feeling it.

Humidity caused two giant recalls for one company I worked at, because nobody realized seasonal changes would impact injection molded components or hydrophilic coating performance. GPUs are a billion times more complicated, if I had to guess there’s a whole team at each manufacturer trying to get constraints out of the way. Nobody is trying to sell fewer units when the demand is there
 
Last quarter 12.7 million discrete gpus shipped, while it's not more than the numbers between mid 2016 to mid 2018 it is more than what was shipped from mid 2018 to now yet availability is still pretty much none existent at launch prices.



These days very few people are upgrading their gpu every cycle, with the performance gap reducing from gen to gen NV and AMD will still want to extract as much out of our accounts as possible so they will want the same profit they would get from selling you 2 gpus in a 36 month cycle from 1 gpu in the same time frame, they will probably want more honestly but lets keep it simple. The bad news is AMD and NV have seen what people are willing to pay the last year and the revenue confirms it.

"While 12.7 million discrete graphics cards for desktops sounds a lot, and is more than the number of standalone desktop GPUs sold by the industry per quarter in the recent years, in past years hardware makers could ship well over 20 million discrete AIBs for desktops per quarter. What the computer graphics industry has not seen are the revenues it sees today. Sales of graphics cards reached $13.7 billion in Q3."


After looking at that I'm not sure prices will go back down to what this generation launched at, I expect NV to launch the 4000 series at prices that will make turing look like a bargain and AMD will price around NV like they have the last to cycles. Maybe if they price too many people out and console supply increases that competition may help reduce prices to some degree. Intel have their gpus coming aswell but hoping for Intel to price their hardware much lower/different than whatever performance segment they land in is a long shot.

People are going to claim mining and that is definetly a factor but it was either last quarter or the one before during an investor presentation nvidia used steam numbers to show ampere had more steam users than the same frame time for turing.
Long story short, supply this quarter was the best it's been since Q2 2018 and prices havn't changed and revenue is through the roof. If your holding out for prices to return to normal it's going to be a long wait if it ever happens, maybe start looking at a console to get you through the next 3 or 4 years and hope the gpus next year don't sell at the new crazy launch prices so they course correct on the following cycle.

Part of the reason for the price rise is increased foundry costs due to more expensive state of the art process nodes, e.g. EUV 7nm and 5nm nodes, which they pass on to their customers (e.g. NVidia and AMD).

In addition to this, the chip scarcity issue is the biggest contributor; because far too many people are misunderstanding and misreporting on this situation. It's not actually a chip supply issue, it's an issue of overinflated demand, because fab customers who never held inventory in the supply channels in the past (owing to the JIT model), have now been and continue to panic buy to hold stock for their supply channel inventory. This is evidence of that, in that shipments of units are up yet prices are still high. It's basic economics, revealing that demand is inflated, which is driving up prices, and thus less of an issue of limited supply (in absolute terms). Note that the data here are shipments and not retail sales through to consumers.

When everyone is trying to protect their own bottom line, this is what results. You have to consider that this is the first time our global economic and supply chain models have ever been tested by a world-changing event like the COVID pandemic, as the last one preceded the industrial age.
 
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HTK

Member
oh really? Fine with me, just like they won't reach pre-covid prices is the same reason I won't build another PC.
 

Reizo Ryuu

Member
It's not the card makers though, these cards all have "MSRP", and AMD even sells their own stuff at MSRP whenever they have stock on their website.
The problem with the prices seem to me to be just greedy suppliers/retailers.
There's no large retailers here that are selling the consoles for more than MSRP, so MS/Sony/Nin must be telling them they can't hike up the prices.

If AMD/Nvidia threatened with some kind of sanctions (seeing as how the suppliers/stores are seemingly making an insane profit), I'm sure store prices would calm the fuck down, or at least be in a much better place, but doesn't seem like they care enough; they just announce the cards with the "msrp", and then say "good luck lol".
 

Irobot82

Member
It's not the card makers though, these cards all have "MSRP", and AMD even sells their own stuff at MSRP whenever they have stock on their website.
The problem with the prices seem to me to be just greedy suppliers/retailers.
There's no large retailers here that are selling the consoles for more than MSRP, so MS/Sony/Nin must be telling them they can't hike up the prices.

If AMD/Nvidia threatened with some kind of sanctions (seeing as how the suppliers/stores are seemingly making an insane profit), I'm sure store prices would calm the fuck down, or at least be in a much better place, but doesn't seem like they care enough; they just announce the cards with the "msrp", and then say "good luck lol".
Case in point, Best Boy sells all nVidia Founders editions at MSRP.
 

Gargauth

Member
I wouldn't be surprised, if this is planned or at the very least, desirable, to NVIDIA. FIrst they probably don't want to allocate as much dies for gaming GPUs, because they are generally not as expensive as the professional ones. Secondly, if they raise prices and less people are able to afford them, the more people will be incentivized to transition to streaming subscription (geforce now), especially if those people don't want to give up their seat at the PCMR table. They make more money in the long run, especially off the people who usually buy cheaper graphics cards.
 

Elios83

Member
This situation makes impossible to build your own PC. Paying just the GPU 1000$ or more if you're able to find one, is just crazy.
Next year I need to retire my 4 years old notebook and it seems the only solution is to buy a branded desktop or notebook from msi/asus/hp/dell etc
 
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