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How many copies will Metroid Dread sell?
- Thread starter Cutty Flam
- Start date
- Sales-Age
harry mason 1989
Banned
14 million
maybe if Metroid could crawl it'd be more accessible
Fbh
Member
I think in the 3-5 million range.
Everything on Switch, Nintendo games in particular, seems to sell gangbusters. But Metroid hasn't historically been such a strong seller.
Even 3 million for a game like this would be very impressive. Specially releasing on only 1 platform and for $60
Everything on Switch, Nintendo games in particular, seems to sell gangbusters. But Metroid hasn't historically been such a strong seller.
Even 3 million for a game like this would be very impressive. Specially releasing on only 1 platform and for $60
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Shaqazooloo
Member
It's only been available for preload for one day and it's already number 3 on the NA eShop
nintendoeverything.com
Switch eShop charts - October 2, 2021
This week’s Switch eShop charts are as follows: All Games 1. Diablo II: Resurrected 2. Castlevania Advance Collection 3. Metroid Dread 4. Eastward 5. WarioWare: Get It Together! 6. Minecraft 7. Castlevania Anniversary Collection 8. Hades 9. Undertale 10. Among Us 11. Stardew Valley 12. Mario...
nintendoeverything.com
Cutty Flam
Banned
A lot has changed since the last major Metroid game released in 2007. I’m thinking 6 million is the minimum amount of copies Metroid Dread sells
Bragr
Banned
Luigi's Mansion 3, a game with a big famous Nintendo character and marketed for the family sold 7-8 million. Metroid doesn't fit does descriptions. Almost all the big sellers on the Switch is Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon games. Metroid Dread can likely hope to land near Paper Mario or Mario Tennis at best IMO, around 3 million.
Just look at the big sellers, almost all of them are the big famous franchises, Metroid is just not that sort of franchise:
List of best-selling Nintendo Switch video games - Wikipedia
Then look at what Metroid is usually at, the only reason Metroid Prime sold, is because of the MASSIVE critical acclaim it got, which Dread will not come close to:
Metroid
Metroid is an exploration-based platformer franchise made by Nintendo. The first game was released in 1986 for the Nintendo Entertainment System. The franchise follows bounty hunter Samus Aran as she travels across the galaxy to prevent space pirates from harnessing the power of the Metroid...
Woopah
Member
Other M was 2010
6 million is in no way the minimum. Prime 4 may be able to reach that figure but for Dread I think it's just out of reach.
Lunarorbit
Member
2-3 million
S
SpongebobSquaredance
Unconfirmed Member
We should also consider the following:Luigi's Mansion 3, a game with a big famous Nintendo character and marketed for the family sold 7-8 million. Metroid doesn't fit does descriptions. Almost all the big sellers on the Switch is Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon games. Metroid Dread can likely hope to land near Paper Mario or Mario Tennis at best IMO, around 3 million.
Just look at the big sellers, almost all of them are the big famous franchises, Metroid is just not that sort of franchise:
List of best-selling Nintendo Switch video games - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Then look at what Metroid is usually at, the only reason Metroid Prime sold, is because of the MASSIVE critical acclaim it got, which Dread will not come close to:
Metroid
Metroid is an exploration-based platformer franchise made by Nintendo. The first game was released in 1986 for the Nintendo Entertainment System. The franchise follows bounty hunter Samus Aran as she travels across the galaxy to prevent space pirates from harnessing the power of the Metroid...vgsales.fandom.com
1) The Switch usually gives Nintendo games a boost. The most successful 3D-Mario, the most successful 3D Zelda, the most successful Pokemon since the original, the most successful Animal Crossing, the most successful Mario Kart, the most successful Smash Bros., the most successful Luigi's Mansion and even their more niche stuff seems to get a boost, as it also has the most successful Kirby since the original, the most successful Pikmin, the most successful Fire Emblem, the most successful Mario Tennis etc. etc.
2) Between 2007 (or 2010, whatever) and today a lot has changed. The indie scene honors Metroid freequently and released several Metroidvania games to commercial and critical success. Metroidvania is more popular than ever before. With that in mind and the fact that the franchise returns that started it all, this could lead to a boost in sales as well.
3) Nintendo puts a ton of marketing into this game, they want it to do good.
Those people saying it will do 15 million copies are obviously exaggerating, but it will do at least 3 million and become the most successful game of the franchise. I honestly think that's a safe bet at this point. When even Pikmin does over 2 million on the Switch, why should the new and highly marketed Metroid Dread struggle to reach even 3 million?
Last edited by a moderator:
NomadicAsiatic
Member
3-5 million. 35 million seems delusional
EverythingsOverrated
Member
I think this is a big factor that people are overlooking. There's an entire generation of gamers that have been playing these indie metroidvanias that have become fans of the genre, a lot of them never having played a Metroid or Castlevania game. This is going to be a ton of peoples first Metroid game.
I think the game will hit around 5 million lifetime sales
Bragr
Banned
Because Pikmin looks like a fun family game, Metroid is a tense 2D shooter. There is no denying that the Switch has boosted most of the major franchises, but a lot of that has to do with how they fit into the Switch family-friendly Nintendo ecosystem, and how they appeal to the market.
I'm a big Metroid fan, but I also recognize how the game is viewed outside the hardcore circle. It's absolutely insane how few people have actually played Metroid, it's always been a big issue for Nintendo. Metroid is one of the most critically lauded franchises in history yet its games struggle really hard to sell over a million, even with heavy marketing.
I think 3 million will happen lifetime, but I will be blown away if it hits over 5 million. I think we can hope that it becomes the best-selling Metroid game until Metroid Prime 4, but I think double the record is the highest we can hope for.
A lot of this is gonna come down to reviews and the hype that will make, it needs to hit over 85 IMO to gain a boost from Metacritic to sell as well as it can. Hollow Knight was hugely successful and reviewed extremely well and was pushed on multiple platforms, and as far as I know, it sold something over 2.5 million total across all platforms or something like that. That was a 15-20 buck game or something, Metroid Dread is a full 60 dollar game on one system. The Metroidvania genre is well known now, but it's not as big as people make it out to be, and Metroid has suffered from that for 30 years.
Javthusiast
Banned
Even with a Switch boost, will remain under 2 mill nichetroid.
Cutty Flam
Banned
Times have changed. Gamers are more hardcore than they’ve ever been. There’s more gamers now, and they’re more vocal and proud of the activity than in years past I’ve noticed. Gaming is like a more acceptable, more welcomed, worldwide hobby. Many go for sport now. The outlook has changedLuigi's Mansion 3, a game with a big famous Nintendo character and marketed for the family sold 7-8 million. Metroid doesn't fit does descriptions. Almost all the big sellers on the Switch is Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon games. Metroid Dread can likely hope to land near Paper Mario or Mario Tennis at best IMO, around 3 million.
Just look at the big sellers, almost all of them are the big famous franchises, Metroid is just not that sort of franchise:
List of best-selling Nintendo Switch video games - Wikipedia
Then look at what Metroid is usually at, the only reason Metroid Prime sold, is because of the MASSIVE critical acclaim it got, which Dread will not come close to:
Metroid
Metroid is an exploration-based platformer franchise made by Nintendo. The first game was released in 1986 for the Nintendo Entertainment System. The franchise follows bounty hunter Samus Aran as she travels across the galaxy to prevent space pirates from harnessing the power of the Metroid...
Samus is an excellent character. Metroid is a stellar franchise with some unbelievably inspiring level design. We’re talking about a series here in Metroid, this is the series that pioneered an entire genre. It was only a matter of time before Metroid took off, and this is its time
We’re looking at 5-6 million copies in the end, minimum. That’s my take. More people are going to play this, more people are going to hear about this game know about it and Metroid as a franchise is about to take flight and finally get the recognition it deserves
Dream-Knife
Banned
My biggest take away was how aesthetic his TV set up was. Over here in America we generally have huge tvs mounted to the wall.
Buggy Loop
Member
a $60 sidescroller in 2021
Will outsell Demon’s Souls
AJUMP23
Gold Member
This seems like a troll given that this is a tent pole release in the holiday season for a Nintendo console.
Cutty Flam
Banned
How many copies sold in the first week? 100k? 500k or 1 million?
Kataploom
Gold Member
I pre-ordered it, first game that I ever pre-order.It's only been available for preload for one day and it's already number 3 on the NA eShop
Switch eShop charts - October 2, 2021
This week’s Switch eShop charts are as follows: All Games 1. Diablo II: Resurrected 2. Castlevania Advance Collection 3. Metroid Dread 4. Eastward 5. WarioWare: Get It Together! 6. Minecraft 7. Castlevania Anniversary Collection 8. Hades 9. Undertale 10. Among Us 11. Stardew Valley 12. Mario...
Shifty1897
Member
Anything over 2 million would be a big success for Metroid.
Cutty Flam
Banned
It is a fairly huge event for many gamers IMO. Metroid Dread will be the first game I buy on release day since Gears of War 3, which was over a decade ago now
cartman414
Member
Missingnomer
Member
All these Nintendo games have been breaking sales records because it has been a long time since people have gotten to play Nintendo games. The Wii U was a joke console that most people skipped. So if you have been waiting for Metroid since Wii, you are going to buy anything at this point. Also, there is nothing to play on Switch besides a weird remake of an old Pokemon game, so I think a lot of people will buy it just to have something to play while they are at their folks place for the holidays.
Might hit 5 million.
Might hit 5 million.
Danjin44
The nicest person on this forum
So we are going to ignore games like Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Mario +Rabbits Astral Chain, Bayonetta, Bravely Default 2, and upcoming games like Shin Megami Tensei 5 and Triangle Strategy?
I own both PS5 and Switch and safety day I’m playing more on my Switch than PS5.
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Velius
Banned
There will of course be an initial surge. I think it ultimately depends on how good the game is. I am really, really hoping that it's a fantastic, true Metroid game. I've been dying for one. Other M was awful. Samus Returns did not scratch the itch very well.
Please Nintendo, get this right.
Please Nintendo, get this right.
Woopah
Member
I think they are specifically talking about the holiday season, but even then there's also SMTV, Advance Wars Reboot Camp, Big Brain Academy, GOTG, Mario Party Superstars, Voice of Cards etc. It's not just Metroid and Pokémon this holiday.
Danjin44
The nicest person on this forum
If they don't like those games that fine but saying Switch has no game, that complete BS. I don't like majority games on Xbox, does that mean Xbox also has no games!?
Woopah
Member
It's a odd way of justifying the sales of a game. Generally games sell well because that's what people want to buy, not because "there's nothing else to play" or "it has been a long time".
HuskerfanChuck
Neo Member
1MM first week, 5MM by end of calendar year, at least 10MM likely lifetime. Underestimating is a plague upon this land, and big release for holiday combined with Switch effect will do wonders.
Cutty Flam
Banned
Agreed. It’s nothing anybody except Nintendo must worry about, but I would say that this is their opportunity to reach more gamers. It is an outstanding franchise, and Metroid Dread needs to hit a solid number. Otherwise, people will still be sleeping on some amazing games with an amazing protagonist in Samus Aran
Omnipunctual Godot
Gold Member
I've seen sales on this already for sub-$50 but I'm waiting on reviews because MercurySteam has a track record that's all over the place.
Shaqazooloo
Member
It needs really good legs to make it to 10m, if it reviews well world of mouth could carry it their but I'm a little doubtful of that.
3-5m is a safe bet.
3-5m is a safe bet.
lachesis
Member
Entire of Metroid series, apparently sold about 18M. I think the popularity is not as huge as one may think.
If it reaches 1M, it would be a good success for it. Looks like the biggest seller was original Metroid (counting various re-releases), closely followed by Metroid Prime.
If it reaches 1M, it would be a good success for it. Looks like the biggest seller was original Metroid (counting various re-releases), closely followed by Metroid Prime.