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[Eddie-Griffin]

With only 6 days to go until the day of launch, the first of the next wave of VR headsets will begin starting with the PlayStation VR2 on Feb 22nd.

Now let's take guesses on how the Headset will do on its first month. Sony appears confident and they have dozens of games at the ready for launch window, and they recently shut down a Bloomberg report claiming that they were cutting production, so that 2 million shipment is still on!

How well do you think PSVR2 will do in its first month? Vote in the poll which will close 24 hours after the headset releases giving people a chance to make a final prediction. We will likely know the results in early to mid March.

 

[The_Mike]

Given its a Sony product, it should be high.

But given its expensive dropping that bar alot.

Also its only for PS5, which is limited by stock, so that's also gonna drop alot off.

 

[saintjules]

Because it's expensive there won't be alot of early adopters for this. It's considered like another Console for people. I'd think they would break just under 1 mil after the first month but it's hard to say.

 

[ViciousAgenda]

If Horizon was a must play launch title, maybe around 1 million. I was sitting on the fence but the games are lackluster so far.

 

[Baki]

Explosive launch sales (500K-1M) and then a quick decline from there.

 

[XXL]

At least 2

 

[R6Rider]

Over a million

 

[plip.plop]

It will be its best month of sales for its lifetime until a price drop (unlikely).

 

[ZehDon]

Less than a million units. Sony are selling to the VR diehards at the moment. After the initial boom, I expect PSVR2 to start under-delivering until the big titles start landing and the price comes down.

 

[Crayon]

First month is hard to predict. I haven't really thought about it that way. I would guess if you're trying to do 3 million in a year 500 a month would be tough on its own. But on the other hand, I don't know how the first one did right out of the gate to compare. I'm voting for under 500.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

i heard there is some kind of supply issue; i guess around 850 units or so.

 

[Crayon]

I think that 2 million was from bloomberg, too.

 

[schaft0620]

My guess is 1.3M.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I don't know how the first one did right out of the gate to compare.

Well, PSVR1 did 50,000 units first week in Japan.

For general sales there's this, https://gamerant.com/playstation-vr-sales-2016/

SuperData originally had 2016 sales for PlayStation VR pegged at 2.6 million, presumably expecting a boost from the recent Black Friday holiday shopping weekend. However, such a boost apparently didn't occur, as SuperData is now expecting PlayStation VR to sell less than 750,000 total units by the time 2016 comes to a close.

Then this came out in Feb for the first 4 months in 2017, https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/26/s...playstation-vr-headsets-in-first-four-months/

Since going on sale just four months ago, Sony details to the NYT that the company has sold 915 thousand of its virtual reality headset, the PS VR. The article also details that Sony had originally set internal goals to sell one million headsets in the first six months of sales, a number that the company seems well-positioned to meet with ease.

So it depends on how you look at it. Sony apparently was expecting 1 million PSVR1's to be sold in 6 months, whether that's the original goal or not I don't know but they ended up beating that expectation by around two months.

The difference though is PSVR2 has more hype, more games upfront, and has a shipment of 2 million ready to be sold.

Very hard to tell how this will play out since PSVR2 is going to be in a different position than PSVR1 so raw numbers may not be too helpful to predict PSVR2 results. PSVR2 gets a slide because it was released early in this new gen of VR in wave 1.

 

[Crayon]

Well, PSVR1 did 50,000 units first week in Japan.

For general sales there's this, https://gamerant.com/playstation-vr-sales-2016/


Then this came out in Feb for the first 4 months in 2017, https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/26/s...playstation-vr-headsets-in-first-four-months/


So it depends on how you look at it. Sony apparently was expecting 1 million PSVR1's to be sold in 6 months, whether that's the original goal or not I don't know but they ended up beating that expectation by around two months.

The difference though is PSVR2 has more hype, more games upfront, and has a shipment of 2 million ready to be sold.

Very hard to tell how this will play out since PSVR2 is going to be in a different position than PSVR1 so raw numbers may not be too helpful to predict PSVR2 results. PSVR2 gets a slide because it was released early in this new gen of VR in wave 1.

Damn. All that helps for hints but like you say there's so much different this time around. Mostly the state of the VR market. There's way more people out there who know if they like it or don't now. And then they're coming in with a headset that is considered top of line now, where the last one was considered budget. And then that was their first try, so they should have a little bit of an audience now. IDK there's a lot going on here.

 

[mckmas8808]

First month is hard to predict. I haven't really thought about it that way. I would guess if you're trying to do 3 million in a year 500 a month would be tough on its own. But on the other hand, I don't know how the first one did right out of the gate to compare. I'm voting for under 500.

The first one did a few hundred thousand at launch.

 

[Crayon]

The first one did a few hundred thousand at launch.

Do you know if it's over 2.50? Cuz I'll change my vote !

 

[Sakura]

Even Wii U did good at launch so it is kind of impossible to say.
But I would say around 1~ million.

 

[mckmas8808]

Do you know if it's over 2.50? Cuz I'll change my vote !

That I don't know.

 

[Captain Toad]

Over a million

Less than a million units.

I think you're both wrong.

 

[analog_future]

I think it'll sell over 1 million units, but sales will be extremely front heavy and will fall off a cliff in the months that follow.

 

[Gamer79]

They fucked themselves with that price point.. Selling for more than the ps5 itself is insanity. I will stick to my quest 2 for vr.

 

[radewagon]

With them being only available direct... I dunno. It's crazy I can't just go to Best Buy to pick one up. Any talk of potential sales needs to take into account the bafflingly stupid idea of having them not available at major retailers.

 

[Lasha]

With them being only available direct... I dunno. It's crazy I can't just go to Best Buy to pick one up. Any talk of potential sales needs to take into account the bafflingly stupid idea of having them not available at major retailers.

I didn't know that. Direct orders will definitely affect volume since the bulk of PS5 owners are probably unaware that the device will be available.

 

[Deerock71]

I say less than 500K, but I also believe that will be because Sony will under-deliver shipments so they can say they sold their entire stock.

 

[TLZ]

I was going with half a milly but thought can be more since there are all the enthusiasts from PSVR early adopting this plus newcomers.

 

[ReBurn]

Early adopters will be there for sure. With 30 million PS5's out there 500K is only 1.67% attach rate. I think they can sell at least that many.

 

[Lasha]

Early adopters will be there for sure. With 30 million PS5's out there 500K is only 1.67% attach rate. I think they can sell at least that many.

Thats around the lifetime attach rate of the original PSVR so possible.

 

[ReBurn]

Thats around the lifetime attach rate of the original PSVR so possible.

The VR market is so different now that I think PSVR2 stands a much better shot at success.

PSVR was fighting more of an uphill battle at the time, plus it was relatively primitive with the move controllers and camera and bright lights for tracking. I know a lot of people loved it but it wasn't the best VR experience out there. Much more gimmicky. PSVR2 is much more capable and stacks up much better against its contemporaries.

 

[Lasha]

The VR market is so different now that I think PSVR2 stands a much better shot at success.

PSVR was fighting more of an uphill battle at the time, plus it was relatively primitive with the move controllers and camera and bright lights for tracking. I know a lot of people loved it but it wasn't the best VR experience out there. Much more gimmicky. PSVR2 is much more capable and stacks up much better against its contemporaries.

PSVR also had the advantage of a much larger install base. The original version was cheaper and came out at a time when you could get a PS4 for around $200. PSVR2 will get early adopters for sure. I think it will face headwinds from the much higher cost of entry and a lower install base.

 

[DrFigs]

I think it will do 400-500k, but will have steady legs.

 

[MALpractice311]

Definitely less than a half mil. The PSVR2 may be a impressive bit of tech, but it's not priced for mass market appeal. Also, there are no killer apps thus far.

 

[mrmustard]

Haven't seen any marketing yet and Horizon is not a god Tier must have so i guess 500k.

 

[AncientOrigin]

If they don’t have to many like 10 million or so they will sell out.If they have something like 500.000 to 1 million will probably sell out

 

[DenchDeckard]

Massive sales first month, then it drops like a lead balloon...hopefully in time for me to get 100 to 200 off by Xmas or 18 months away lol.

And by massive sales, I mean massive for VR. might hit 1 mill but I think realistically it will just be over 500k. Around 600 to 750k

 

[crackajack]

PSVR was fighting more of an uphill battle at the time

I'd argue PS VR2 faces an even steeper hill. People who are interested in VR, the usual early adopters, have most probably already tried one of the options, thought the novelty alone was worth something, but any second system has now to stick at least a 9/10 landing. People now know what to expect and what it needs to offer to be interesting, to recommend it to others. And while the tech is probably an impressive improvement, the number of games is not really huge, the cable bothers some, PC-support would have helped, rather premium, hardly mainstream price. Especially lacking games is a problem and a clear commitment that it will sort of get drowned in games is not there. GT and Horizon and RE and then? The strategy seems to be again just a few VR-too ports and a lot of smaller experiences that are often super fun but not really have blockbuster impact? Move was not ideal, but it was necessary and kind of cheap if you already had then. Now the DS5 could have been a detachable VR DS... to have a portion of the VR neccesities already at PS5 owners' homes.
It should be successful enough to be profitable, but I have doubts it will sell more than VR1. If it does, great, because then games shoud be coming, which would then lenghten the games list and it will sell more...

 

[systemr123]

I think you're both wrong.

So exactly 1 million it is . No less, no more, than exactly 1 million units sold in 1 month. Not 999,999, not 1,000,001. Exactly 1 million units (throw the holy hand grenade!).

I think it will sell around 500K at release and a little bit more during the first month. Then I think over the years about 2x the total amount of PSVR1s will be sold.
PSVR1 sold quite a lot and it had a ton of issues. Also, it was not the best headset when released compared to the competition. And PSVR1 was more expensive than PSVR2 to buy.
PSVR1 plus mandatory accessories came down to 569 separate bought or 499 in a bundle. Now take 6 years of inflation on top of that and PSVR2 is actually cheaper at release than the first, with infinitely better tech.

 

[FunkMiller]

Around the half million mark. They’ve not done enough to prove this is a must have bit of kit… especially during a cost of living crisis, and when VR game development has stalled.

 

[Crayon]

Early adopters will be there for sure. With 30 million PS5's out there 500K is only 1.67% attach rate. I think they can sell at least that many.

There's some napkin math I can use. I'm changing my vote!

 

[Freeman76]

I voted for up to 500k but not over that.

Its pricepoint and lacklustre release line up dont make it a must have.

Im a tech junkie and game almost daily, own a series x, ps5, QOLED, if something is worth buying I'm like a kid and cant wait.

For me, PSVR2 just doesnt appeal enough out the gate. I will 100% buy one. Just not yet. If I feel like that when I'm fortunate enough to be able to afford release prices on most gaming related stuff, I wont be the only one waiting.

GAF is notorious for its love of all things Sony. People fiercly defend it and numerous ppl say what an amazing line up it has. I mean....how? Its Sonys own unit and they havent even made a single high profile game to release with it. Gt7 will be great but not a system seller for most people. Horizon looks like a tech demo really. Rez I can play on my old PSVR.

No killer app as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Mahavastu]

i voted for "over 1 mio"
It looks like great hardware, has a pretty good line up at start (especially for those not having other VR headsets), some amazing exclusive games like horizon, re8 and gt7 will find their players. It is not cheap, but the price sounds OK, not really that high if compared to other systems.
I guess in the long run there will be more games than for the original PSVR (even if many will be cross plattform) and pretty much every major game will be ported to PSVR2.
I assume it will sell pretty good and there will be a lot of "word of mouth" recommendations and owners to friends.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

A little over 100,000
some of these posts are laughable.

 

[SLB1904]

A little over 100,000
some of these posts are laughable.

 

[Mephisto40]

The original sold 5 million units worldwide, so I would expect this to shift about 1 million in it's first 6 months or so

 

[fastest finger]

Sony’s initial target for PSVR1 was “high single-digit % attach rate” to PS4.

PS5 sold 3.4m in its first month (albeit supply constrained). What could it have sold? 5 million?

I suspect 500,000 PSVR2 in its first month would be considered a massive success by them.

 

[Freeman76]

With them being only available direct... I dunno. It's crazy I can't just go to Best Buy to pick one up. Any talk of potential sales needs to take into account the bafflingly stupid idea of having them not available at major retailers.

Its madness imo. Completely removes impulse buys from people with wads of cash in their pocket seeing one and just picking it up while out shopping.

 

[Three]

With them being only available direct... I dunno. It's crazy I can't just go to Best Buy to pick one up. Any talk of potential sales needs to take into account the bafflingly stupid idea of having them not available at major retailers.

It's to increase margins most likely. You might see it at retailers later down the line.

 

[Jigsaah]

In the first month...with the cost of living situation folks got going on? I'm gonna go with less than 500k, boss.

It's still niche, costs more than PS5. I just don't think enough people are willing to jump on that right now with so much uncertainty. It may pick up after some solid reviews.

 

[Jim Ryan other Clone]

An entertainment product needs games to sell, we saw what happened to Xbox why will be different for PSVR2? No games no buy, sorry i can't pay 600€+ just to replay Village in a different way and sorry but i like with new products to play new games not games that is on quest 55 for the last 2 or 3 years.

 

[Captain Toad]

So exactly 1 million it is . No less, no more, than exactly 1 million units sold in 1 month. Not 999,999, not 1,000,001. Exactly 1 million units (throw the holy hand grenade!).

Yes. Exactly.