LOL the fact that it’s a $400 accessory is a meaningless qualifier for devs. Devs care about install base.
Your wild numbers of 130M-160M PS5 install base would still require a time horizon of 10 years. So even with your wild speculation of 13M units for PSVR2, that would be over 10 years and would mean selling just 1M units a year. Quest sells 10M units in a year. 10x the PSVR2.
PSVR2 in its current form will be niche. If Sony releases a wireless standalone, they have a chance of creating a platform that will rival the PS5. Unfortunately Jim Ryan is too conservative to take such a wild bet.
I obviously think $400 for accesory is too fucking expensive for both devs and players. Maybe even $200 would be too expensive.
And this is why I highlighted it, because I think a 10% install base of a $400 accesory deserves way more praise than a 10% install base of a $99 accesory like a fancy camera.
The PS4 has sold around 120M until now and they sold 150M+ with PS2. When there was enough PS5s available in the stores -but still in limited amounts-, launch aligned PS5 was outselling both PS4 and PS2. So it isn't wild to expect PS5 will end selling better once they get rid of the chips issue.
Yes, VR is -and during many years will continue to be- a niche market. And this is why no AAA teams make games for Quest or PSVR2 -specially standalone- unless moneyhatted by FB, because the userbase is too small. Jimbo's bet is to allow their headset AAA games using the power and development tools of PS5, so devs aren't as constrained with horsepower than in standalone vr games. So will be easier for devs who make PS5 AAA games (which are a ton, unlike the ones who develop for Quest) to make a VR version or VR game, which would increase their PSVR2 userbase.
Sony knows PSVR2 -and VR in general- is and will be continue being a niche during many years so will get limited support from devs. And that a standalone PSVR2 would be even more expensive so even more niche, which means even less devs would support it. Sony had a profitable business with PSVR1 so they iterated it and will continue growing in a sustainable and profitable way. FB went aggresive and put a high end headset at a super cheap price even if it costs them billions in loses every year, in the same way MS they had a tiny userbase and subscription compared to Sony so they give way their AAA games even if it causes billions of loses every year. Sony doesn't need to bed for attention to grow their userbase, they are fine with their userbase and prefer to have instead a profitable gaming business.
I assume the next step for Sony in VR after PSVR2 will be a wireless (but not standalone) headset.