• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Incuvo Games CEO Discusses How PS VR2 Might Impact the VR Market

Baki

Member
The hardware seems to be getting on a decent level, now we just need the software to match it.

The only VR title they've announced so far is that Horizon one and I don't understand why they would go for that. That 10 second clip really smelled like an old fashioned 'on rails' experience where you could look at the pretty robot dino's (oh no, a big one is going to step on you!! Aahh a near miss. How exciting, right?)
While they clearly should've gone for a HL:Alyx type of game in the Killzone universe!

I also believe that something like a space RTS (Homeworldish) could be cool in VR, ordering ships around and building stuff around your head. Make that a online competitive game and bang, you got your VR multiplayer title.
I’m not expecting much from the Horizon game. I think releasing a wired VR headset is an admission on their part that they think the sector is still early and so they don’t expect to have a huge install base for this version of VR. Therefore it won’t make sense for them to create an expensive AAA VR game as there’s no way they’d recoup the cost.
 

reksveks

Member
Purchasing habits don’t mean much when there’s a 10x install base difference. PS2 had a 4-5x install base advantage and we can see how many de facto exclusives the PS2 received as a result. Now imagine that issue, but more magnified because the PSVR2 install base is so small, games won’t be profitable without subsidises from Sony. As we’ve seen from the Vita, Sony is quick to abandon platforms when they feel they need to focus on their core home console. In an environment where MS is spending aggressively, if PSVR2 doesn’t become self sufficient, I can see Sony abandoning the platform. That said, I don’t think that’s the likely outcome, I think Sony Group HQ see VR as a growth sector and will try to release their own Quest competitor. No idea if that would be successful.

Not saying that PSVR2 is getting exclusives or even make a lot of revenue relative to the Quest, I am saying that they will get enough ports because the additional cost might make sense to port to psvr2.

Whether that generates enough profit for Sony to keep up in the long-term, I am not sure. I do think the Quest will end up taking the majority of the profits. I think a truly successful metaverse (where all the money is) game/app will require a standalone and wireless vr headset.
 

anthony2690

Member
Like a fart in the wind.

I feel like everyone that really cares for VR probably has a high end pc rig/set up.

And those mildly curious/or just want an accessible experience will go with an oculus quest or whatever they are called now.

The majority of people I know who had VR on playstation 4 left it to gather dust after intially getting one, or swiftly sold it. (I can't imagine they are in a rush to buy psvr2) but I could be wrong (who knows, I can imagine a lot of people get caught up in the hype off something new)
 
Last edited:

Baki

Member
Not saying that PSVR2 is getting exclusives or even make a lot of revenue relative to the Quest, I am saying that they will get enough ports because the additional cost might make sense to port to psvr2.

Whether that generates enough profit for Sony to keep up in the long-term, I am not sure. I do think the Quest will end up taking the majority of the profits. I think a truly successful metaverse (where all the money is) game/app will require a standalone and wireless vr headset.
I honestly don’t think devs bother even porting. I think ports will dry up after 2 years. Even if Sony pays for the ports, there’s opportunity cost to be considered, and if PSVR2 has less than 3m units, it just won’t be worth it.
 

BabyYoda

Member
All I know is, I bought a Quest 2 after trying it once and four other people I know are buying one after trying my quest 2 once. The thing that sold it most, was when I told them it was completely standalone and the price (also the quality of it obviously).

I'm really glad Sony are continuing to invest in VR, it's great for VR as a whole and in turn great for us lovers of VR. But it being tethered and needing a PS5 will keep it niche at best, sad but true. Hopefully it has the option of being standalone, but I doubt it.
 

Wohc

Gold Member
I think the Quest is the way to for the masses. Standalone and no cable. Of course PSVR2 will have much better graphics, but you need an investment of around 1.000 Euro and there is the damn cable. I don't think it will do much better than PSVR1, but i appreciate that they are trying to push it.
 
Last edited:

Shmunter

Gold Member
Tame expectations.

What the VR market really need isn’t just another VR headset selling to a couple million people, the market needs big AAA studios to make big investments as if they plan to sell the games to 100+ million people.

It’s honestly annoying to see big studios make such little effort. AAA devs are waiting for the market to expand. Meanwhile the market won’t expand since gamers are waiting for AAA games to arrive.

How about showing people why they should invest in VR instead of waiting for the market to show that it’s time to invest in VR?
With the studio investments, Sony should have a dedicated vr team with the highest caliber experts.

Let the regular AAA studios do as they do, with the VR team on the side adapting the games to VR without interruption to the core team.

Yes, not all games can be adapted - and many need to be built from the ground up to be quality. So candidates need to be identified and potentially early intervention msy be required to obtain assets in certain ways for better results.

e.g GT7 complete game on psvr2 is a no brainer.
 

yurinka

Member
A 10% attach rate would still be pretty shit from an install base perspective. Way too small for it to be viable for developers. Especially as Quest 2 will probably have 5-10x the audience size.
10% attach rate for a $400+ accesory is awesome news. And a 10% attach rate would mean 13-16M units sold depending on how much PS5 ends selling, which as of now outside chips shortage seems it's going to be more than PS4 (so over 120M).

I don't see Quest 2 selling 5-10x times that at all.
 
Last edited:

Baki

Member
10% attach rate for a $400+ accesory is awesome news. And a 10% attach rate would mean 13-16M units sold depending on how much PS5 ends selling, which as of now outside chips shortage seems it's going to be more than PS4 (so over 120M).

I don't see Quest 2 selling 5-10x times that at all.

LOL the fact that it’s a $400 accessory is a meaningless qualifier for devs. Devs care about install base.

Your wild numbers of 130M-160M PS5 install base would still require a time horizon of 10 years. So even with your wild speculation of 13M units for PSVR2, that would be over 10 years and would mean selling just 1M units a year. Quest sells 10M units in a year. 10x the PSVR2.

PSVR2 in its current form will be niche. If Sony releases a wireless standalone, they have a chance of creating a platform that will rival the PS5. Unfortunately Jim Ryan is too conservative to take such a wild bet.
 

AllBizness

I cry about Microsoft. A lot.
VR is heading g to a great space. Wired VR on console for the best graphics and performance and Meta VR standalone which is what VR really needs to take off is non gaming applications and that's what Meta is doing. Good times ahead for VR. Sony and Meta pushing it the most. Nobody else sales enough to matter.
 

yurinka

Member
LOL the fact that it’s a $400 accessory is a meaningless qualifier for devs. Devs care about install base.

Your wild numbers of 130M-160M PS5 install base would still require a time horizon of 10 years. So even with your wild speculation of 13M units for PSVR2, that would be over 10 years and would mean selling just 1M units a year. Quest sells 10M units in a year. 10x the PSVR2.

PSVR2 in its current form will be niche. If Sony releases a wireless standalone, they have a chance of creating a platform that will rival the PS5. Unfortunately Jim Ryan is too conservative to take such a wild bet.
I obviously think $400 for accesory is too fucking expensive for both devs and players. Maybe even $200 would be too expensive.

And this is why I highlighted it, because I think a 10% install base of a $400 accesory deserves way more praise than a 10% install base of a $99 accesory like a fancy camera.

The PS4 has sold around 120M until now and they sold 150M+ with PS2. When there was enough PS5s available in the stores -but still in limited amounts-, launch aligned PS5 was outselling both PS4 and PS2. So it isn't wild to expect PS5 will end selling better once they get rid of the chips issue.

Yes, VR is -and during many years will continue to be- a niche market. And this is why no AAA teams make games for Quest or PSVR2 -specially standalone- unless moneyhatted by FB, because the userbase is too small. Jimbo's bet is to allow their headset AAA games using the power and development tools of PS5, so devs aren't as constrained with horsepower than in standalone vr games. So will be easier for devs who make PS5 AAA games (which are a ton, unlike the ones who develop for Quest) to make a VR version or VR game, which would increase their PSVR2 userbase.

Sony knows PSVR2 -and VR in general- is and will be continue being a niche during many years so will get limited support from devs. And that a standalone PSVR2 would be even more expensive so even more niche, which means even less devs would support it. Sony had a profitable business with PSVR1 so they iterated it and will continue growing in a sustainable and profitable way. FB went aggresive and put a high end headset at a super cheap price even if it costs them billions in loses every year, in the same way MS they had a tiny userbase and subscription compared to Sony so they give way their AAA games even if it causes billions of loses every year. Sony doesn't need to bed for attention to grow their userbase, they are fine with their userbase and prefer to have instead a profitable gaming business.

I assume the next step for Sony in VR after PSVR2 will be a wireless (but not standalone) headset.
 
Last edited:

K2D

Gold Member
PSVR2 is going to be DOA. Wired, requires a PS5 is going to be a tough sell in 2022 or 2023. Sony might be able to support the platform with some games in the early days, but much like the Vita, it’s going to be hard to continue getting developer support unless the platform can compete with the Quest. The Quest 2 has 90% market share and outsold the Xbox last year. It’s going to be hard to convince Developers to develop on the PSVR 2 when it’s likely that the platform won’t even sell 20% of what the Quest does in a year.
FUD.

PSVR purchaser are early console adopters anyway, and VR2 adoption can only eclipse that of PSVR. You can take that to the bank! 20 million PS5, 30 mill by the first year of VR2..

At the end of the day, quest 2 is not capable as a stand alone without wifi or wire.

PC and console will never truly be competitors.

Sure, I wouldn't mind pc compatability, it'll probably happen down the road same as with Dual Sense - and the PS5 has wifi5 build in, wouldn't mind that either, but I feel wired is a blown out of proportions issue.
 
Top Bottom