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Is the Blu-ray format dying?

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VPhys

Member
pel1300 said:
Ummm...no.

Upscaling does jacksh*t. There were progressive scan dvd players several years ago that were just as good as these "upscaling" dvd players today.

Honestly, dvds on my panny 53" rear projection tv through a panny rp82 progressive scan dvd player in 2001 looked better than DVDs "unscaled" on my ps3.

You can attribute it upscalling or not. I don't care what the cause is, but results are the same, DVDs look damn good on my 1080p HDTV, not that much worse than BD.
 

Dirtbag

Member
Evlar said:
I don't have a "killer setup". I have a decent 32" 720p set, which is rapidly becoming mainstream or even slightly smaller than the mainstream set sold new. The set is still on factory default calibration. I have it hooked up with an HDMI cable, which granted is more expensive due to retail-rape, but I don't think anyone can credibly say HDMI is hard to set up. It's easier to plug in than the component cables you have to buy to enjoy improved video out of an upconverter.

So basically, the picture you just described is exactly the same one I get on (digital)cable tv.
 

pel1300

Member
Dirtbag said:
The difference is 'astounding' for someone with a killer setup, but the masses don't have killer setups... or even properly calibrated sets. Most of them haven't even figured out how to get the most picture out of their existing setups from settings to cables. People throw 'HD' around and still have no idea what they are talking about half the time.

Just look at the wii and get a taste of priorities. I really think blu-ray was about a year early.

The difference is astounding on ANY HDTV...even a Vizio 32 inch lcd.
 

pel1300

Member
VPhys said:
You can attribute it upscalling or not. I don't care what the cause is, but results are the same, DVDs look damn good on my 1080p HDTV, not that much worse than BD.

If you can honestly say that after watching the dvd and bluray versions of Ratatouille and Crank back to back, then you need to set up an eye appointment.
 

pel1300

Member
Guys -

I am usually VERY critical of AV geeks who claim to see such huge differences between the PQ of different HDTV brands or the PQ of 720p vs. 1080p

The biggest factor in seeing a difference in PQ is the resolution. 480i or 480p to 720p/1080i/1080p is a HUGE leap. The difference is obvious.

The difference between 720p and 1080p is negligible at normal screen sizes(50 inch and under).

I roll my eyes at those who see such a huge difference in the PQ between a top of the line Samsung LCD and a top of the line Sony LCD, or in a 720p vs. 1080p set.

But to say that the difference between bluray and "upscaled" dvd is negligible, even at smaller screen sizes, is insane.
 

Evlar

Banned
Dirtbag said:
So basically, the picture you just described is exactly the same one I get on cable tv.
Except it isn't, since the picture you get on cable TV will be subject to lossier compression than Blu Ray video. And, if you think the average consumer will prefer pay-per-view over Blu Ray, how do you explain the average consumer prefering DVD over pay-per-view?
 

SSM25

Member
so, some people here here assume:
1.- Blu-ray players will never go cheap, they will forever be on the $300-800 mark.
2.- SDTV will be the norm forever. (even when people have HDTVs).
3.- BD has less than 2 years to storm the market or it will automatically fail and die (even when it has no competition)
4.- for once in the history of mankind, technology will not advance hence DVD will be the movie format until the end on the world.

sounds like there are a lot of sour HD-DVD fans out there............
 

C.Dark.DN

Banned
mr jones said:
Cost is the factor that keeps me from buying BD movies.

I'd LOVE to get Ratatoille, Casino Royale, Band of Brothers, and Planet Earth. But I can't find any of those for under $25 dollars. The only reason why I have ANY BD flicks at all is because pawn shops around me will sell them for about 9-12 bucks. But that's after scouring these places, because otherwise all they have is stuff like Ultraviolet, Resident Evil, and Spiderman 3. No thanks.

As long as movies are $22+ dollars per movie, I'm going to hold out. I can rent BD from Netflix, so I can get my fix that way.
For one... Band Of Brothers and Planet Earth are both a miniseries. :lol

For two the retail difference between dvd and br is small.

Amazon.com:

Ratatoille: DVD$16.49, BR$20.95
Casino Royale: DVD(two disc$)14.99, DVD(Three Disc)$22.99, BR(Two Disc)$25.95
Band of Brothers: DVD$44.95, BR$57.95
Planet Earth: DVD$59.95, BR$63.95

Not on your list but...
The Dark Knight: DVD$22.95, BR$23.95

Oh, and you'll see a b2g1 sell on amazon.com often. Pushing each disc close to $17 each.
 

pel1300

Member
Dirtbag said:
So here is another problem.
1080i tv is pretty much the equivalent of 720p - something you can already achieve with an upconverting dvd player.

Blu-ray's picture isn't maximized until you hit 1080p which is double that off 1080i(technically a myth, but for arguments sake the same effect)... A 1080p picture will always display smoother. Beyond that there is 1080p/24 which will display the framerate equivalent to movies perfectly, 24fps.

Something I don't have numbers on, but would imagine there are far more people out there with 720p sets vs. 1080p sets. I would predit 720p to hit mass-market prices soon - if you don't consider them there already (thanks to the recession), with 1080p remaining a slightly higher price point. Like the above poster said, I'm not sure anyone is even retailing SDTV tube sets anymore.

You, sir, are totally duped by the 1080p hype.

CRT 1080i sets from the year 2002 have arguably better PQ than many 1080p sets of today.

1080p is irrelevant until you reach large screen sizes(50 inch or greater).

It's even arguable that at 100 inch screens the difference between 720p/1080i and 1080p is small.

A Pioneer PDP-5080HD 720p 50 inch plasma >>>>>> almost every other brand's 1080p 50 inch set.
 

Dirtbag

Member
Evlar said:
Except it isn't, since the picture you get on cable TV will be subject to lossier compression than Blu Ray video. And, if you think the average consumer will prefer pay-per-view over Blu Ray, how do you explain the average consumer prefering DVD over pay-per-view?

That's not what I'm implying at all. I'm just relating how easy it is to minimize the wow factor of blu-ray. Some of us have been watching 720p for years and/or have maximized our sets with quality upconversion and calibration and the impact of 1080p is significantly lessened. Fold in factors of price and convenience (not wanting to watch movies on a ps3) and throw a recession on top and you have one scary market for a format that isn't cemented in place yet.

Call it naive, but I don't know if blu-ray will ever dethrone dvd (as a movie format) as long as its the cheaper option in face of bluray. I do however expect both the xbox3 and ps4 to feature bluray drives.

pel1300 said:
You, sir, are totally duped by the 1080p hype.

CRT 1080i sets from the year 2002 have arguably better PQ than many 1080p sets of today.
I know what you are relating here, and I'm not disagreeing in total, but CRT's biggest problem was largely size in the face of LCD and Plasmas. And I haven't seen a better picture then the pioneer plasma elites... no CRT has come close.

1080p is irrelevant until you reach large screen sizes(50 inch or greater).

It's even arguable that at 100 inch screens the difference between 720p/1080i and 1080p is small.

A Pioneer PDP-5080HD 720p 50 inch plasma >>>>>> almost every other brand's 1080p 50 inch set.
I mostly agree, but you are a little bold in some of your claims.

For example, 1080p is "irrelevant" until you reach large screen sizes(50 inch or greater).
I'd say 1080p is 'mostly irrelevant' but there still is a noticeable difference for sizes under 42 inches.. and it's got everything to do with viewing distances.
 

pel1300

Member
When you walk into a blockbuster store and look at what's being played on their Sony LCD display...

It is so freakin obvious when they have a standard DVD playing.

Usually they play BR on the Sony display, but occasionally the store doesn't receive the BR disc of the display movie on time, so they display the DVD version instead.

The difference is huge. I find myself thinking "wow, I don't remember DVD looking so horrible back in the day"
 

C.Dark.DN

Banned


By the way, a lot of hypocrites in here would have a field day if this was a ps3 vs 360 in game screen shot.

If the top was ps3.. "buy the 360 version and sell your ps3!"
 

Dirtbag

Member
DeathNote said:
By the way, a lot of hypocrites in here would have a field day if this was a ps3 vs 360 in game screen shot.

If the top was ps3.. "buy the 360 version and sell your ps3!"

Sure they would, and while we argued the wii (dvd) would sell a million units.
This isn't 360 vs Ps3... this is wii vs HD all over again.
 
DeathNote said:
By the way, a lot of hypocrites in here would have a field day if this was a ps3 vs 360 in game screen shot.

If the top was ps3.. "buy the 360 version and sell your ps3!"
THANK YOU. I couldn't agree more.
 

gkryhewy

Member
I love BRD (and my legacy HD DVDs), but I kinda think they're going to end up like laserdisc. I certainly appreciate the difference, but the mainstream just doesn't care, especially in this economy.

Upscaling has gotten better - I'm blown away by the SD DVD difference between my current BH200 all-purpose player and an older Samsung upconverter I had.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Dirtbag said:
So here is another problem.
1080i tv is pretty much the equivalent of 720p - something you can already achieve with an upconverting dvd player.

Blu-ray's picture isn't maximized until you hit 1080p which is double that off 1080i(technically a myth, but for arguments sake the same effect)... A 1080p picture will always display smoother. Beyond that there is 1080p/24 which will display the framerate equivalent to movies perfectly, 24fps.

Something I don't have numbers on, but would imagine there are far more people out there with 720p sets vs. 1080p sets. I would predit 720p to hit mass-market prices soon - if you don't consider them there already (thanks to the recession), with 1080p remaining a slightly higher price point. Like the above poster said, I'm not sure anyone is even retailing SDTV tube sets anymore.

It doesn't matter if Blu Ray PQ isn't maximized unless you watch on a 1080p set, Blu Ray in 720p/1080i will ALWAYS look MUCH MUCH superior to DVD no matter how much you upscale the DVD picture to hell and back.

The people saying that the difference in picture quality between a Blu Ray movie playing in 720p versus an upscaled DVD in 720p is negligible or minimal seriously need their eyes checked out ASAP. Even on the shittiest HDTV you can find, Blu Ray will look much superior to DVD 10 times out of 10.

For the record though, I think VHS to DVD was a bigger jump than DVD to Blu Ray, which Onix agrees with if you read his post(s) correctly, he's just saying that the jump from DVD to Blu Ray was bigger than VHS to DVD in terms of picture quality, which is debatable as DVDs look much nicer than even a new unplayed VHS tape.
 

Phoenix

Member
Dirtbag said:
That's not what I'm implying at all. I'm just relating how easy it is to minimize the wow factor of blu-ray. Some of us have been watching 720p for years and/or have maximized our sets with quality upconversion and calibration and the impact of 1080p is significantly lessened. Fold in factors of price and convenience (not wanting to watch movies on a ps3) and throw a recession on top and you have one scary market for a format that isn't cemented in place yet.

Call it naive, but I don't know if blu-ray will ever dethrone dvd (as a movie format) as long as its the cheaper option in face of bluray. I do however expect both the xbox3 and ps4 to feature bluray drives.


At the moment BRD is following the exact same adoption curve as DVD.
 

Dirtbag

Member
Phoenix said:
At the moment BRD is following the exact same adoption curve as DVD.

DVD never faced an emerging online model as bluray is facing and will continue to face (hulu, netflicks, ondemand, U-verse, Fios).. nor did it have to succeed through a global recession (one that has already slashed Sony's profits for the year)... and it had more advantages such as a larger quality leap up from vhs, and new revolutionary features for its' time (chapters, no rewinding, commentary, special features, etc). Bluray faces a much greater uphill battle then dvd ever did.

Its not apples to apples.

The next year for bluray will be very telling, and arguably more important then this past year where it defeated hd-dvd.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Phoenix said:
At the moment BRD is following the exact same adoption curve as DVD.

My guess is that while that may have been true 10 months ago, it isn't now. Do you have recent data? That would be encouraging.
 

Phoenix

Member
gkrykewy said:
My guess is that while that may have been true 10 months ago, it isn't now. Do you have recent data? That would be encouraging.


I will at the end of next month. Part of my job is to follow this market closely, and I can tell you guys with certainty that the 'emerging online video threat' is so early adopter its not even funny. Even Comcast who has the most mature option out there is doing ass numbers as are Blockbuster, Apple, and Netflix. Nobody is making money doing digital distribution and nobody is doing any real numbers with digital distribution. The market failed to turn any real profit and is currently running to a ad-supported model as a result - not because they wanted to.
 

neojubei

Will drop pants for Sony.
SSM25 said:
so, some people here here assume:
1.- Blu-ray players will never go cheap, they will forever be on the $300-800 mark.
2.- SDTV will be the norm forever. (even when people have HDTVs).
3.- BD has less than 2 years to storm the market or it will automatically fail and die (even when it has no competition)
4.- for once in the history of mankind, technology will not advance hence DVD will be the movie format until the end on the world.

sounds like there are a lot of sour HD-DVD fans out there............


Pretty much. I wonder what these people will do in Feb when TV signals are digital online and analog is gone.
 

gkryhewy

Member
terrene said:
Downloadale HD movies becoming "the standard" is a laughable from a consumer and technical standpoint, and early Blu-Ray adoption (which is the phase we're in) is outpacing early DVD adoption by over six times. I call FUD.

The article you posted is meaningless since it refers only to DRIVES, which are naturally much higher because of PS3. The important comparison is disc sales.
 

mollipen

Member
VPhys said:
You can attribute it upscalling or not. I don't care what the cause is, but results are the same, DVDs look damn good on my 1080p HDTV, not that much worse than BD.

It's nice for you that you're happy with the results, but really, they aren't even close to being comparable. You can have the best upscaling player to ever exist - you simply cannot add detail and resolution that wasn't there in the first place.
 

painey

Member
SSM25 said:
interesting, some movies are actually selling better on blu-ray?......

No they arent. The article states that Hulk on Blu-Ray accounted for 18% of the total Hulk sales which they state is probably the best day and date sales so far.
 

Dirtbag

Member
terrene said:
Downloadale HD movies becoming "the standard" is a laughable from a consumer and technical standpoint, and early Blu-Ray adoption (which is the phase we're in) is outpacing early DVD adoption by over six times. I call FUD.

It's a skewed way of claiming to outpace DVD hardware sales because DVD launched in North America in 97, and didnt pick up till nearly 2 and half years later when Ps2 launched in October of 2000. As opposed to the hardware sales of blu-ray which launched in May 2006, quickly followed by a Ps3 launch a few months later that same year. This time in it's life span for dvd the ps2 still hadn't even launched.

The hardware adoption numbers are heavy ps3 based.

The bigger numbers that need to be considered are the software sales of blu-ray. A ps3 purchase doesn't always translate to someone supporting the format by purchasing BR disks... I'd love to know the numbers on it, course I don't see a press release about that one anywhere.

Where are also a little ways out from the first significant dvd release in the timeline - the Matrix. Dvd's first killer app. You can argue that blu-ray has had numerous major releases that dvd never had at this point in it's lifetime either, leading to some earlier higher numbers.
 

hirokazu

Member
The only Blu-ray video I have is the MGS4 bonus disc because movies are too expensive. :(

I was going to start importing from Amazon starting with Wall-e and TDK, but then the Aussie dollar died and it's too expensive to import too.
 

terrene

Banned
gkrykewy said:
The article you posted is meaningless since it refers only to DRIVES, which are naturally much higher because of PS3. The important comparison is disc sales.
Even if you wanted to completely take PS3 out of the equation, which would be ridiculous (studies estimate that 87% of PS3 owners are buying Blu-Ray movies) - there are 4 million standalone BRD players installed in the U.S. compared to 5 million DVD players at this time in the DVD's life cycle. So, it's either basically on parity with DVD (using an arbitrarily ridiculous/negative standard) or greatly, greatly outpacing it.
 

Dirtbag

Member
terrene said:
Even if you wanted to completely take PS3 out of the equation, which would be ridiculous (studies estimate that 87% of PS3 owners are buying Blu-Ray movies) - there are 4 million standalone BRD players installed in the U.S. compared to 5 million DVD players at this time in the DVD's life cycle. So, it's either basically on parity with DVD (using an arbitrarily ridiculous/negative standard) or greatly, greatly outpacing it.

Well that's much more significant than I thought.
Must admit I was wrong about that one.

Defintely way up from 2007's NPD survey that 40% of Ps3 owners not even knowing the playstation had a bluray drive.
 

Kleegamefan

K. LEE GAIDEN
Everyone says HD digital downloads/streams will displace Blu Ray but where are the actual sales numbers to support this?
 

lastendconductor

Put your snobby liquids into my mouth!
Average Joe does not notice the difference, except when side to side. So why should he care?
I know people who say cam bootlegs look fine...
Let's admit it, only nerds like us care about this shit. Normal people need 100 brainwashes to go out and buy this stuff.
 

pel1300

Member
DKnight said:
Average Joe does not notice the difference, except when side to side. So why should he care?
I know people who say cam bootlegs look fine...
Let's admit it, only nerds like us care about this shit. Normal people need 100 brainwashes to go out and buy this stuff.

You must not get out much.

Pay attention to how "average joe" reacts to the hdtv playing bluray display next time you go to blockbuster or costco.
 

SSM25

Member
this was posted a few months back:

IGN said:
According to research consulting firm Futuresource, however, such rumors of Blu-ray's potential demise are greatly exaggerated. The group has tallied sales figures for Blu-ray hardware in Western Europe since the technology's launch (2006) and compared them to sales of DVD hardware beginning in 1997. By comparing sales trends between formats in the first three years of availability, Futuresource insists Blu-ray adoption is already trending well in advance of DVD's historical data. Leveraging such calculations, the firm expects more than 45-million Blu-ray players to be installed in Western Europe by 2011.
 

suffah

Does maths and stuff
Dirtbag said:
It's a skewed way of claiming to outpace DVD hardware sales because DVD launched in North America in 97, and didnt pick up till nearly 2 and half years later when Ps2 launched in October of 2000. As opposed to the hardware sales of blu-ray which launched in May 2006, quickly followed by a Ps3 launch a few months later that same year. This time in it's life span for dvd the ps2 still hadn't even launched.

The hardware adoption numbers are heavy ps3 based.

The bigger numbers that need to be considered are the software sales of blu-ray. A ps3 purchase doesn't always translate to someone supporting the format by purchasing BR disks... I'd love to know the numbers on it, course I don't see a press release about that one anywhere.

Where are also a little ways out from the first significant dvd release in the timeline - the Matrix. Dvd's first killer app. You can argue that blu-ray has had numerous major releases that dvd never had at this point in it's lifetime either, leading to some earlier higher numbers.

Nice post.

Also, I remember the real sales back in the day. 3 dvd's for $.99 each at buy.com. In 1997 broadband was in it's infancy and technology/information just seemed to disseminate much more slowly. Nowadays, everyone has at least heard of Blu-Ray even if they aren't exactly aware of what it is. I'm curious how BR is tracking vs LaserDisc.

And yes, I'm a pro-BR guy who wishes for mass adoption but knows the reality is it will always remain a niche product. It will affect my wallet but other than that who cares. The titles I want will be released on BR so that's all that matters.
 

Kastro

Banned
I'm really thinking of giving up on Blu-Ray. DVD's are just a steal these days. As nice as the video quality is it's not a huge enough upgrade to me.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
pel1300 said:
It's even arguable that at 100 inch screens the difference between 720p/1080i and 1080p is small.

I suppose a person, if they really wanted to, could argue that the moon is made out of cheese ... that doesn't make it a right :p
 

pel1300

Member
Onix said:
I suppose a person, if they really wanted to, could argue that the moon is made out of cheese ... that doesn't make it a right :p

You obviously didn't read about that AVS experiment where a group of AV enthusiasts were shown a direct side by side comparison on 2 100 inch screens(2 projectors, one 1080p the other 720p).

Guess what? They couldn't tell the difference.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
No, I didn't read that thread. I however, can notice the difference for a lot of content on my 60" screen.
 
Onix said:
No, I didn't read that thread. I however, can notice the difference for a lot of content on my 60" screen.
Of course you can, because you're displaying 720p content on a 1080p screen. It's gonna look a tad blurry because it's being scaled. However if you had 2 screens side by side and one of them was 720p native while the other was 1080p native the 720p one would look sharper than if you displayed 720p content on a 1080p screen.

The difference between the two wouldn't be quite as pronounced as your comparison.
 

Teddman

Member
Phoenix said:
I will at the end of next month. Part of my job is to follow this market closely, and I can tell you guys with certainty that the 'emerging online video threat' is so early adopter its not even funny. Even Comcast who has the most mature option out there is doing ass numbers as are Blockbuster, Apple, and Netflix. Nobody is making money doing digital distribution and nobody is doing any real numbers with digital distribution. The market failed to turn any real profit and is currently running to a ad-supported model as a result - not because they wanted to.
True, no one company is making a bundle on downloads. But still, focusing on the overall market, digital downloads as a whole are having a better "adoption rate" as opposed to Blu-Ray. iTunes alone sold more movies than the Blu-Ray format in 2007.
 

Ashhong

Member
painey said:
No they arent. The article states that Hulk on Blu-Ray accounted for 18% of the total Hulk sales which they state is probably the best day and date sales so far.

look down at the charts. it has sweeny todd sales at 69.85% bluray.
 

Jewbacca

Banned
polyh3dron said:
HDTVs are selling like crazy. Sooner or later the owners of those TVs will want movies that are in HD.

Really are they selling? Wow thats fucking obvious... Hmm lets look at the retail atmosphere?
What? You dont say? You mean 95% of the sets being carried in retailers are HD sets? What? You mean people buy new TV's when their old one goes out?
Does that mean they are buying one because it is "HD"?

No it fucking doesnt. HD sets are almost all that anyone sells. If you want anything above a 27inch thats not HD good fucking luck. People dont have a choice, they have to buy an HDTV at this point.

This doesnt mean they are making the "Jump" It justs means people dont have any choices other than HD because the prices are so nice now. People are content. Example: Look how long its taken us to go to digital broadcasting.

Here is your average consumers questions

What does 720 or 1080 mean?
What does the "i" or "p" mean?
Does this have the digital thing i need for next year?
Does this have the connections for my dvd player?


They are not asking about blu-ray, or HDMI, they dont know anything about DVI, VGA.
I have to tell them that shit
No one gives a shit about HD unless they are........ *drumroll*

-Gamers
-Parents with kids that are hardcore gamers.
-Someone who got sold on it (and at that point they still dont understand what the fuck is going on)





Edit:

DeathNote said:
http://i33.tinypic.com/52zyvb.png
http://i37.tinypic.com/24zk3g7.png
By the way, a lot of hypocrites in here would have a field day if this was a ps3 vs 360 in game screen shot.

If the top was ps3.. "buy the 360 version and sell your ps3!"

Only people who use the tech everyday care. (Gamers)
 

Phoenix

Member
Teddman said:
True, no one company is making a bundle on downloads. But still, focusing on the overall market, digital downloads as a whole are having a better "adoption rate" as opposed to Blu-Ray. iTunes alone sold more movies than the Blu-Ray format in 2007.


iTunes numbers have been quite flat and dropping of late. Where you might want to look for more clarity is the rental trend because that is where more activity is taking place. (and not in the bullshit pilates videos like Netflix has)
 
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