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Is the Blu-ray format dying?

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Teddman

Member
Phoenix said:
iTunes numbers have been quite flat and dropping of late. Where you might want to look for more clarity is the rental trend because that is where more activity is taking place. (and not in the bullshit pilates videos like Netflix has)
How familiar are you with Netflix's recent moves? It seems odd you'd single them out for scorn when they have been the primary envelope pusher in digital downloads/streaming lately.
 

Phoenix

Member
Teddman said:
How familiar are you with Netflix's recent moves? It seems odd you'd single them out for scorn when they have been the primary envelope pusher in digital downloads/streaming lately.


Quite familiar with all of them including some of the deals behind Hulu and Joost. Netflix's Watch Now library is more of a marketing tease than anything else. It will get better, but at the moment Amazon and Hulu are moving far more rapidly than Netflix is. And as far as pushing tech - no Jaman and Hulu have been much better pushers than Netflix.
 

Teddman

Member
I just don't see anyone else diversifying downloads/streaming services as fast as Netflix, which now has their Watch Instantly feature built into five distinct home devices, including two major brands of Blu-Ray player, a low price point standalone box (Roku), the Xbox 360 (now with HD streams), and TiVo, as well as just-announced Mac capability in addition to longtime PC support. Their recent deal with Starz was the first of its kind and a major poaching of a cable-TV exclusive premium programmer.

Netflix also boasts the largest single library of on-demand content as well as the only pure (cheap) subscription model for digital downloads. They're laying the groundwork to position themselves as the market leader, and I think you're vastly underrating them.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I guess I'll give you the benefit of the doubt as it's your line of work and all.
 

zoukka

Member
You people do realise that the picture quality varies HUGELY even today in DVD:s and BR:s. I own just two BR:s, Casino Royale and NCFOM and both are pretty much perfect in image quality. One day I rented Sweeney Todd BR and was fucking shocked how fugly it looked. Every dark shade was pixelated like hell and only the close-ups of the actors were decent.

This is even more true to DVD:s and the best ones really do rival the quality of some BR-releases. Like the LotR extended editions in two discs, I could honestly put it on and tell my friends it's a BR and they would believe me (heh did this once). One recent surprise was Sideways that looked absolutely gorgeus!
 

Phoenix

Member
Teddman said:
I just don't see anyone else diversifying downloads/streaming services as fast as Netflix, which now has their Watch Instantly feature built into five distinct home devices, including two major brands of Blu-Ray player, a low price point standalone box (Roku), the Xbox 360 (now with HD streams), and TiVo, as well as just-announced Mac capability in addition to longtime PC support. Their recent deal with Starz was the first of its kind and a major poaching of a cable-TV exclusive premium programmer.

Netflix also boasts the largest single library of on-demand content as well as the only pure (cheap) subscription model for digital downloads. They're laying the groundwork to position themselves as the market leader, and I think you're vastly underrating them.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I guess I'll give you the benefit of the doubt as it's your line of work and all.

Amazon and Jaman did this last year with Tivo.
Watch Instantly has been available on Amazon, Jaman, and Hulu for some time now.
The BRD players are not yet available, nor is the Tivo, and Mac support is still a very shaky beta.
Starz was NOT the first deal of its kind, they were beaten to the punch a few years back with Blockbuster purchased Movielink.

I won't go much further than that because much of the other information I have is very NDA.
 

Teddman

Member
Phoenix said:
Amazon and Jaman did this last year with Tivo.
Watch Instantly has been available on Amazon, Jaman, and Hulu for some time now.
Instant viewing beyond on a PC? If those service have anything officially supporting connection to a TV, it doesn't have near the penetration of the Netflix service.
The BRD players are not yet available
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B001F5FI3S/?tag=neogaf0e-20
Starz was NOT the first deal of its kind, they were beaten to the punch a few years back with Blockbuster purchased Movielink.
Movielink was not a cable TV programmer like Starz, it was an internet download service.
 

Haunted

Member
Just consider that a gaming and tech enthusiast forum like GAF is usually a couple years ahead of the mainstream.... and people are this split about it here, which basically means that it'll probably take a while for BR to push through.

Even with the insane marketing.
 

WinFonda

Member
Haunted said:
Just consider that a gaming and tech enthusiast forum like GAF is usually a couple years ahead of the mainstream.... and people are this split about it here, which basically means that it'll probably take a while for BR to push through.

Even with the insane marketing.
Well I don't think that's how it works. NeoGaf is more likely to be arguing about this because we're tech enthusiast. When's the last time you've seen Gaf conform to anything? Everyone here has different preferences and motives. Some people are pro-digital distribution, some are pro-Blu Ray, and let's face it, some people just have an axe to grind.

The ridiculousness of it all is this: Blu-Ray has already secured it's place in the market, the time to argue over this has come and gone already. Whether or not we think it will ever outsell DVDs (I personally believe it will) is kind of besides the point. It's the HD standard for physical media, and it will be that way for a some time to come.

Digital distribution already has its place solidified as well. And despite the popular belief (among tech enthusiasts) that digital and hard copy media can't coexist with one another and that somehow a great war is brewing between the two to decide the others fate, reality continues to point to the contrary.

This idea that the world is going to coalesce and shoehorn itself down a one medium, one platform pipeline is absurd. I'm not sure why it's presented so often.
 

DrXym

Member
WinFonda said:
Well I don't think that's how it works. NeoGaf is more likely to be arguing about this because we're tech enthusiast. When's the last time you've seen Gaf conform to anything? Everyone here has different preferences and motives. Some people are pro-digital distribution, some are pro-Blu Ray, and let's face it, some people just have an axe to grind.

Generally speaking (and of course there are exceptions) I expect you can break it down between 360 and PS3 owners.

* 360 owners were more likely to have owned HD DVD and therefore are naturally biased against Blu Ray.

* PS3 owners have Blu Ray out of the box and are therefore naturally biased towards HD DVD.

* 360 has always been more streaming oriented than the PS3, even after DNLA streaming support appeared on the PS3.

* 360 has recently seen Netflix streaming whereas the PS3 doesn't (except through a lashed together solution requiring a PC)

* Streaming and digital downloads are possible on both platforms but its a more established delivery mechanism for 360 than PS3.

Therefore 360 owners are more likely to favour streaming because of Netflix but also lingering Blu Ray vs HD DVD resentment, and PS3 owners are more likely to favour physical media and Blu Ray.

I suppose I am in the latter camp although I own plenty of HD DVDs and I rip most of my media and store it on the PS3.

My opposition to digital downloads is one of pragmatism. I think it is incredibly stupid to buy a movie which is locked to Amazon, or Sony, or Microsoft or Apple - their store, their DRM, their proprietary format, their devices. I want to be able to shop around for content and play it on any device of my choosing.

I think downloads are fine if you rent them, or if you rip your own but the industry simply doesn't have the common delivery platform it needs if its ever going to become viable for ownership.
 

fanboi

Banned
2jdqnn8.jpg


No.
 

Ceres

Banned
fanboi said:

A shame the title is wrong. BR Hulk sold 18% of the total sales for the title. The highest yet but hardly a sign of how the market is overall since it's not hard to figure out why a movie like Hulk of all things would sell well on BR.
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Haunted said:
Just consider that a gaming and tech enthusiast forum like GAF is usually a couple years ahead of the mainstream.... and people are this split about it here, which basically means that it'll probably take a while for BR to push through.
The tech enthusiasts in this forum that have been proponents of BD haven't said otherwise from the start, by and large. Even if you allowed for the possibility that it will grow as quickly as DVD did, we'd still be 4 years from seeing BD take over the video market.

Any narrative that BD should somehow have stormed the market and taken the throne already is coming from...elsewhere.
 
Basically, Blu-ray needs to drop in price and it will do just fine.

Otherwise it has no benefit whatsoever to the rest of the market. DVD was a huge leap over VHS. The majority of people don't have and never will have a big HDTV. So there is no benefit for them.

Even with an HDTV, I'm fine with buying good movies on sale for $5-10 and playing them on an upscale player.
 

Evlar

Banned
Captain Sparrow said:
Basically, Blu-ray needs to drop in price and it will do just fine.

Otherwise it has no benefit whatsoever to the rest of the market. DVD was a huge leap over VHS. The majority of people don't have and never will have a big HDTV. So there is no benefit for them.

Even with an HDTV, I'm fine with buying good movies on sale for $5-10 and playing them on an upscale player.
At this point it's difficult to buy anything but an HDTV. Tubes are dying and with them interlace display tech. Televisions last a good ten years or more so it's going to take some time for the least interested consumers to upgrade (when their old set dies) but it's inevitable. Like the phonograph CRTs will someday be curios and collector's items for videophiles looking for some idealized nostalgic experience while the masses watch soaps and football on flat screen HDTVs.
 

dallow_bg

nods at old men
Personally, the upgrade in sound quality brings a bigger :) to my face than the visual jump. Which is also quite apparent.

Teddman said:
Instant viewing beyond on a PC? If those service have anything officially supporting connection to a TV, it doesn't have near the penetration of the Netflix service.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B001F5FI3S/?tag=neogaf0e-20Movielink was not a cable TV programmer like Starz, it was an internet download service.
And these BD players as well:

http://gizmodo.com/5067494/samsung-blu+ray-players-now-come-with-netflix-streaming
A free update allowed for Netflix streaming.
 

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
Mr Jones said:
Cost is the factor that keeps me from buying BD movies.

I'd LOVE to get Ratatoille, Casino Royale, Band of Brothers, and Planet Earth. But I can't find any of those for under $25 dollars. The only reason why I have ANY BD flicks at all is because pawn shops around me will sell them for about 9-12 bucks. But that's after scouring these places, because otherwise all they have is stuff like Ultraviolet, Resident Evil, and Spiderman 3. No thanks.

As long as movies are $22+ dollars per movie, I'm going to hold out. I can rent BD from Netflix, so I can get my fix that way.
I know some have answered you alrady but damn your post reeks of ignorance i had to response.

Really? Or is it that your just not really looking, much, if it all?

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000VBJEFK/?tag=neogaf0e-20
I especially like this, since going to bestbuy.com the DVD of Ratatouille is TWENTY dollars.
Moar like worst buy amirite?
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage...ratatouille&lp=1&type=product&cp=1&id=1695805

The friggin DVD's of band of brothers is 45 dollars and you expect the blu-ray to be cheaper?
Same damn thing with planet earth.


People anger me.
 

Phoenix

Member
Teddman said:
Instant viewing beyond on a PC? If those service have anything officially supporting connection to a TV, it doesn't have near the penetration of the Netflix service.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B001F5FI3S/?tag=neogaf0e-20Movielink was not a cable TV programmer like Starz, it was an internet download service.

Yes they had instant viewing beyond a PC, in fact at CES last year they were demonstrating it on the floor (and a couple behind closed doors looking for partners). They all went to the PC and one of them had a box (Vudu) which still today has more on-demand 'desirable' content than Watch Now.

I'll wait until you do some streaming on the LG player and get your feedback.

Movielink was a play that included a number of movie studios and cable TV programming partners. You're looking at the service, I'm looking at the business.
 

Phoenix

Member
Captain Sparrow said:
Basically, Blu-ray needs to drop in price and it will do just fine.

Otherwise it has no benefit whatsoever to the rest of the market. DVD was a huge leap over VHS. The majority of people don't have and never will have a big HDTV. So there is no benefit for them.

Even with an HDTV, I'm fine with buying good movies on sale for $5-10 and playing them on an upscale player.


This is correct. BRD's barrier at the moment is price. They have to get the price to $200 or below so that it can move out of the early adopter penetration area. There are also 'other contractual factors' that will really push adoption once the price gets below $200 as well.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Phoenix said:
This is correct. BRD's barrier at the moment is price. They have to get the price to $200 or below so that it can move out of the early adopter penetration area. There are also 'other contractual factors' that will really push adoption once the price gets below $200 as well.
yeah, but on newer technology (which at just over 2 years it still is) price is always a barrier and it always comes down. It doesn't "need to come down to gain adoption". That's just the way these things work. Not really correcting anyone, it's just stupid how these articles say "Blu-ray is failing and not being adopted by the mainstream because it's priced too high" yet it's pricing AND adoption rate are in-line with the most successful new technology of all time.. DVD. It would be an entirely different story if we were saying these same things 4 years in (like DVD-Audio and SACD.. lol.. :( )
 

Phoenix

Member
borghe said:
yeah, but on newer technology (which at just over 2 years it still is) price is always a barrier and it always comes down. It doesn't "need to come down to gain adoption". That's just the way these things work. Not really correcting anyone, it's just stupid how these articles say "Blu-ray is failing and not being adopted by the mainstream because it's priced too high" yet it's pricing AND adoption rate are in-line with the most successful new technology of all time.. DVD. It would be an entirely different story if we were saying these same things 4 years in (like DVD-Audio and SACD.. lol.. :( )


Won't disagree, but I think the market segmentation for BRD needs to come out of the early adopter phase faster than DVD did.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Phoenix said:
Won't disagree, but I think the market segmentation for BRD needs to come out of the early adopter phase faster than DVD did.
I will actually disagree with that last part simply because the migration to blu-ray hardware will happen naturally, unlike DVD where it was a pretty dramatic market shift. I mean you needed a completely new type of player for DVD that had nothing to do with your VCR. Probably within the next year you will see the high-end of DVD players ($100+) turn into Blu-ray players. People won't look at it as investing in Blu-ray as much as just buying a new higher end upscaling DVD player that just happens to play Blu-rays. I think one thing people haven't discussed is that at this point the hardware manufacturers are in the clear. Blu-ray players will continue to come down in manufacturing costs and will just eventually tier by tier begin phasing out DVD players. And hell, that's just what manufacturers need as there isn't much above upscaling that they can offer in today's DVD player to prompt people to replace/upgrade an existing player. So to put it point blank, Blu-ray from a hardware standpoint is a success.

On the software side we'll see. But as more of these players get out there (which of course they will) and the price difference drops to $2-5 per movie, you are going to have a whole new type of buyer coming in over the next year. not quite enthusiast not quite j6p.

the biggest differences between DVD and blu-ray is that the DVD hardware was a tougher sell as it did mean rebuying your entire collection.. on Blu-ray as prices come down the hardware will be an easier sell, but because the player can play all of your existing movies the software might lag slightly behind DVD's original adoption rates to start with.
 
Guybrush Threepwood said:
Doesn't the BR version of Planet Earth have less features than the DVD version?

You know what? I ordered a BR Planet earth set from an AMAZON marketplace seller, and so I got it and it was sealed, but I didn't open it until like months later.

I pop it open put the first disc in and it did not want to play. It wouldn't show up in the video of the XMB, so I pop it out look at it and right there staring me in the face on the right side of the disc "HD DVD". Son of a bitch. All the other discs were Blu ray except for that first disc.

Long story short. It looks awesome though.
 

Phoenix

Member
borghe said:
I will actually disagree with that last part simply because the migration to blu-ray hardware will happen naturally, unlike DVD where it was a pretty dramatic market shift.


There is no such thing IMO. Something can grow and die in the early adopter phase for no fault of its own. BRD has the unenviable position of sitting in the Innovators/Early Adopters market development areas. At the moment it hasn't reached the tipping point so that it can move into early majority for mainstream.

While I don't think that digital downloads is a relevant competitor (hasnt even gotten out of the innovator phase), a significant slowdown due to price constraints could cause the device to meet with unnecessary rivals. By definition, customers in the early majority require that the product e affordable and have an attractive feature set. Right now the PS3 is still the 'best game in town' and there needs to be a MUCH larger gap in either features or price from the PS3 or the perceived market price of a BRD will be significantly higher than it actually is.

As such, from a marketing perspective we have to look at the factors which accelerate market growth: advantage, affordable, ease of use, performance, and availability as well as the consumer forces need, risk, buying, observation and trial.

From a product perspective, there is a clear advantage, but it is not perceived as affordable. The devices are easy to use, but the ones that have the best performance are not perceived as being 'the same' - due to the whole profile mess the PS3 is perceived as the performer. Availability is excellent though.

From the consumer perspective, need is considered by the market as being poor until the family has an HDTV, risk is low across the board, but the price point puts buying in a more collaborative category which is bad in an economic downturn. Sony was smart to work with a lot of people to get displays on HDTVs around so people going observe and try the product so those two aren't barriers.

As such based purely on customer and product forces that shape market growth - affordability, especially right now, can easily move the technology into the early majority which is necessary to accelerate adoption. Can it happen at the current rate of adoption? Perhaps, the problem being that there is a pretty big expensive dependency (HDTV) that is a strong requirement for adoption. As such getting more bundle deals (such as where Netflix is headed) as well as more pricing deals where feature parity at the low end makes sense (as opposed to still having the social risk of 'wow you got screwed because this can't do X') will ensure that the product moves ahead as opposed to entering the slow growth hell.
 
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