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[Wandering Leopard]

Depends if you think horizon from gorilla is a good game.

Everything is possible. You just gotta believe in your vision.

I understand your thinking but I don't fully agree, in the case of Guerrilla Games, they would've been able to reuse/repurpose a lot from Killzone, whereas Playground will be doing a lot more things from zero.

I think the best case scenario is that Playground pitched a 3rd person action prototype/demo they wanted to make, MS saw it and liked it, and they told them to turn it into Fable.

 

[Ozriel]

I understand your thinking but I don't fully agree, in the case of Guerrilla Games, they would've been able to reuse/repurpose a lot from Killzone, whereas Playground will be doing a lot more things from zero.

It’s pretty much the same thing in terms of reuse.

Guerilla used the same Decima engine for Killzone Shadowfall and Horizon.

Playground is using ForzaTech for Forza Horizon and Fable. It’s an engine they’re already fully proficient with in terms of lighting, vegetation, procedural generation, physics etc.

I think the best case scenario is that Playground pitched a 3rd person action prototype/demo they wanted to make, MS saw it and liked it, and they told them to turn it into Fable.

No. They pitched Fable themselves.

 

[anthony2690]

Is there a full video to the interview? So I don't keep jumping into different threads with multiple qoutes?

 

[Umbasaborne]

If they get it, then why nothing to show for it 2 yrs after reveal?

 

[Ozriel]

If they get it, then why nothing to show for it 2 yrs after reveal?

You mean they’ve been doing nothing for the past few years?

What a weird comment.

 

[Umbasaborne]

You mean they’ve been doing nothing for the past few years?

What a weird comment.

They dont want people asking these questions then maybe they should show something, anything, or give people a meaningful status update on the game, ya know, instead of showing a cg trailers years before the game releases then going radio fucking silent. Sick of this trend, its horse shit

 

[yurinka]

You mean they’ve been doing nothing for the past few years?

’m not concerned at all, just skeptical that racing devs can successfully transfer that skill set to a big western choice driven rpg

They are talented devs. They hired/will hire whoever talent with the skills of knowledge they didn't have before. It will take it longer for them because have to build engine and tools that wasn't there in their racing games, but I'm pretty sure they'll do a good job. Maybe not the best in the genre, but something very solid.

But they need time and patience. To make a AAA game needs many years of development, they are making this game with a team way smaller than this type of game uses, and it's their first game in this genre, size and IP so they'll have a lot of work to do specially when they are building their own engine for it. And well, it will also be the first game of this studio/team with a lot of new people who comes from outside so they'll need extra time to be adapted etc.

They did show that CG trailer when the game still wasn't under production, we're far from being the game released and not because they have development issues. It won't be released this or next year as some expect because AAA games need time to be developed and more time for the cases I mentioned above. People expecting it for this or next year will be dissapointed.

 

[Ozriel]

They dont want people asking these questions then maybe they should show something, anything, or give people a meaningful status update on the game, ya know, instead of showing a cg trailers years before the game releases then going radio fucking silent. Sick of this trend, its horse shit

They want people asking sensible questions, not you claiming they’ve done no work for years.

It’s up to the devs and Microsoft when they want to start marketing for the game, and that’s often tied to the release schedule. at E3 2022, Microsoft CLEARLY focused on stuff coming to Gamepass in the next 12 months, so we know for sure it isn’t coming before mid year 2023.

Insisting you’re owed screenshots or a trailer for a game that’s coming no earlier than H2 2023 because they announced the game in 2020 makes no sense.

 

[remember_spinal]

They want people asking sensible questions, not you claiming they’ve done no work for years.

It’s up to the devs and Microsoft when they want to start marketing for the game, and that’s often tied to the release schedule. at E3 2022, Microsoft CLEARLY focused on stuff coming to Gamepass in the next 12 months, so we know for sure it isn’t coming before mid year 2023.

Insisting you’re owed screenshots or a trailer for a game that’s coming no earlier than H2 2023 because they announced the game in 2020 makes no sense.

They haven’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt

 

[Ozriel]

They haven’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt

Playground games? lmao

 

[Umbasaborne]

Playground games? lmao

For playground? Sure the horizon games are great, always have been. For xbox game studios as an entity? Nah. Its been a decade of empty promises and cg trailers. Im fresh out of patience for them. If they dont deliver next year then im done with xbox for a while.

 

[Ozriel]

For playground? Sure the horizon games are great, always have been. For xbox game studios as an entity? Nah. Its been a decade of empty promises and cg trailers. Im fresh out of patience for them. If they dont deliver next year then im done with xbox for a while.

But this is a thread about a Playground game…

 

[BennyBlanco]

They haven’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt

Their last 3 games all have metacritics of 90+

Console wars have eroded your brain

 

[Sosokrates]

They dont want people asking these questions then maybe they should show something, anything, or give people a meaningful status update on the game, ya know, instead of showing a cg trailers years before the game releases then going radio fucking silent. Sick of this trend, its horse shit

They haven't shown because they are not ready yet. Probably want to get some things locked down before they show.

PS does anyone know what engine they are using for fable?

 

[Sosokrates]

They haven’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt

You must have doubt about bend studios next game then.. there last game got like 71meta

 

[Topher]

Just because Sony only develops 3rd person narrative adventure games nowadays (plus MLB and GT), doesn't mean other developers are incapable of diverse generas.

Why even bring Sony into this?

 

[Xenon]

You can't always use the past to predict the future but can anyone recall a studio switching to a completely different genre like this, and the game turning out well? (Situations like this are rare).

Naughty Dog

 

[Wandering Leopard]

It’s pretty much the same thing in terms of reuse.

Guerilla used the same Decima engine for Killzone Shadowfall and Horizon.

Playground is using ForzaTech for Forza Horizon and Fable. It’s an engine they’re already fully proficient with in terms of lighting, vegetation, procedural generation, physics etc.



No. They pitched Fable themselves.

I get what you're saying in terms of assets but GG would've had a bigger headstart with Horizon - certainly compared to Playground - because they'd already done or could reuse things like:

• Character designing, animating, rigging etc.
• Facial animation
• Enemy AI routines
• Maybe some level design principles

I'm simply saying that Playground have a much bigger jump to make than GG did, but I'm not saying it's beyond them.

 

[YeulEmeralda]

There is whole new team at playground working on this title (with lots of experienced (in rpg) people), and with forza horizon experience in 2nd team at the studio I am not worried whatsoever. This game with be massive, will look amazing and will be full of English humour. Cannot wait for the release. I am hyped for this since the first teaser. I trust in playground.

Are you from the future?

 

[Wandering Leopard]

Naughty Dog

Naughty Dog needed to get the first Uncharted game out of the way first (which was a solid game), and everyone could tell they'd learned a whole lot when Uncharted 2 came out.

Update: not to mention ND had done 3rd party games before Uncharted.

 

[Ozriel]

I get what you're saying in terms of assets but GG would've had a bigger headstart with Horizon - certainly compared to Playground - because they'd already done or could reuse things like:

• Character designing, animating, rigging etc.
• Facial animation
• Enemy AI routines
• Maybe some level design principles

I'm simply saying that Playground have a much bigger jump to make than GG did, but I'm not saying it's beyond them.

Aside the fact that they’ve hired extensively, i really don’t want you to keep believing that experienced devs - no matter the genre - would be entirely unfamiliar with character designing, animating etc.

Not to mention the fact that Playground could easily get support from any of the other xbox studios for any of that, if needed.

The overarching story, quests, combat etc are really the big hitters as far as a Fable RPG is concerned. You know, making an actual fun game. Not basic stuff like facial animation.

They’ve hired experienced folks from Rocksteady, EA, Ubisoft, Guerilla, Ninja Theory and ex-Lionhead.

 

[Ozriel]

Are you from the future?

Fable is an open world RPG, so it’s going to have a large world. It’ll have lighthearted British humor…that’s a staple for the series and already confirmed by Spencer. It’ll look great…it’s next gen only and Playground makes visually excellent open world games.

Sounds like you need to pay more attention to the present.

 

[Xenon]

Naughty Dog needed to get the first Uncharted game out of the way first (which was a solid game), and everyone could tell they'd learned a whole lot when Uncharted 2 came out.

Update: not to mention ND had done 3rd party games before Uncharted.

As mentioned before UC was a completely different style of game than the ones they were making at the time.

Being 3rd party has nothing to do with anything.

 

[pasterpl]

Are you from the future?

Yes.

 

[Kimahri]

That's not really the point though, it's purely because of what Playground have been making; from the outside, it would've made more sense if Rare or The Coalition were asked to make it.

I also don't know the backgrounds of the employees at Playground or if they've gone on a hiring spree to make sure they have the right people for this type of game.

In hindsight, Rare would've been the more obvious candidate.

They hired a lot of people and opened a second studio.

 

[Shubh_C63]

I know people will say Horizon has already put PG on the map but in reality if they nailed Fable, this will put them on the map.

People are hungry for a traditional adventure RPG. Look at New World launch.

 

[CeeJay]

In hindsight, Rare would've been the more obvious candidate.

Playground wanted to do it, I'm sure if Rare wanted to use any Microsoft IP they could but instead they continue to choose to create original work. 007 and DK are the only games I can think of with someone else's IP. They have barely done sequels to their own IP as well let alone want to reuse someone else.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Yu

You guys do realize that alot of these devs have worked on numerous other games, including other genres, right? Not to mention they've hired many other devs who have experience in specific development disciplines to handle the areas with no experience?

You guys don't think. Jesus.

Ok…..First time I heard this. All I heard was the team didn’t have experience creating an action RPG and it’s “incredibly complicated” which gave me the impression that whoever was there might not have ample experience in developing action RPG’s. See the link for more below.

https://boundingintocomics.com/2022...-people-with-knowledge-about-action-rpgs/amp/

 

[Sosokrates]

Naughty Dog

Insomniac too.

 

[Camreezie]

You dont want to rush a reboot of a franchise thats been gone for a decade. That usually doesnt end well, See Saints Row

 

[remember_spinal]

You must have doubt about bend studios next game then.. there last game got like 71meta

i do in fact cause i thought days gone was dog shit, but what does that have to do with anything?

 

[Sosokrates]

Yu

You guys do realize that alot of these devs have worked on numerous other games, including other genres, right? Not to mention they've hired many other devs who have experience in specific development disciplines to handle the areas with no experience?

You guys don't think. Jesus.

Yes, people would have to be really ignorant to not realise that studios are made of people who have experience working at various different companies, genres and games.

Also when making the fable team they would of chosen people with the best experience and desire to make a fable game.

 

[Sosokrates]

i do in fact cause i thought days gone was dog shit, but what does that have to do with anything?

Interesting that you don't share the same enthusiasm and optimism for fable as you do for a days gone sequal.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/jeff-ross-reveals-details-on-pitch-for-days-gone-2.1627453/

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

You dont want to rush a reboot of a franchise thats been gone for a decade. That usually doesnt end well, See Saints Row

Gat came out in 2015.

 

[Banjo64]

Just because Sony only develops 3rd person narrative adventure games nowadays (plus MLB and GT), doesn't mean other developers are incapable of diverse generas.

Bit rude on Astro, Sackboy and Ratchet there G.

 

[Gavon West]

Ok…..First time I heard this. All I heard was the team didn’t have experience creating an action RPG and it’s “incredibly complicated” which gave me the impression that whoever was there might not have ample experience in developing action RPG’s. See the link for more below.

https://boundingintocomics.com/2022...-people-with-knowledge-about-action-rpgs/amp/

You know that had to be BS because Phil gave PG the duty to remake Fable.

 

[Torrent of Pork]

Bit rude on Astro, Sackboy and Ratchet there G.

My apologies, drop the narrative story for those games.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

You know that had to be BS because Phil gave PG the duty to remake Fable.

Possibly. Pretty sure I heard something similar from multiple sources, but you never know these days with news and rumors. Then again, if Phil allowed PG to work on Fable, he must know something we don’t or have confidence that they can pull it off.

 

[remember_spinal]

Interesting that you don't share the same enthusiasm and optimism for fable as you do for a days gone sequal.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/jeff-ross-reveals-details-on-pitch-for-days-gone-2.1627453/

Point out where i show any enthusiasm or optimism for a days gone sequel in any of those post

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

It's just nice to hear Matt Booty actually talking about specific Xbox 1P games for a change in a way you'd expect someone in his role to. He's usually in hiding like a groundhog.

But again, let's see some of that gameplay progress sometime. It'd go a long way to restore some faith in games with known issues like Everwild and Perfect Dark, if even some gameplay screenshots (good ones) for Fable and State of Decay 3 were shown off, even better some gameplay footage.

 

[small_law]

FH4 was my pandemic game and it was a blast. Not a perfect game by any means, but then playground games fixed a lot of the fundamental issues FH4 had with FH5. I'm still playing FH5 on the weekly and I have a ton of fun with it. It has bugs and some weirdness here and there. And, yeah, you can say the isn't as interesting as previous installments despite it being larger, but it's so well made and so well supported. It embarrasses other AAA releases. They refined the hell out of FH4 over time and they are on the same path with FH5.

I've got faith in playground games to pull off Fable. I'm honestly expecting Fable 2 levels of enjoyment from it, which isn't unreasonable.

 

[Sosokrates]

Point out where i show any enthusiasm or optimism for a days gone sequel in any of those post

You definitely seem more optimistic about a potential days gone 2, then you are about fable in this thread.

In that thread you give suggestions on how they can improve apon the original.

In this thread your just doubt playgrounds ability to make fable.

 

[remember_spinal]

You definitely seem more optimistic about a potential days gone 2, then you are about fable in this thread.

In that thread you give suggestions on how they can improve apon the original.

In this thread your just doubt playgrounds ability to make fable.

In that thread I give theoretical take on what i would personally do or want if a sequel were ever announced not that i think they should make or that bend would knock it out of the park. If you make a thread similar to this saying Bends new arcade racer is coming out find I’d show skepticism for that also.

You’re just reaching at this point, and you missed because there are way better examples of me fanboying than using the one studio at sony i really dont give a shit about lol

 

[pasterpl]

They are talented devs. They hired/will hire whoever talent with the skills of knowledge they didn't have before. It will take it longer for them because have to build engine and tools that wasn't there in their racing games, but I'm pretty sure they'll do a good job. Maybe not the best in the genre, but something very solid.

But they need time and patience. To make a AAA game needs many years of development, they are making this game with a team way smaller than this type of game uses, and it's their first game in this genre, size and IP so they'll have a lot of work to do specially when they are building their own engine for it. And well, it will also be the first game of this studio/team with a lot of new people who comes from outside so they'll need extra time to be adapted etc.

They did show that CG trailer when the game still wasn't under production, we're far from being the game released and not because they have development issues. It won't be released this or next year as some expect because AAA games need time to be developed and more time for the cases I mentioned above. People expecting it for this or next year will be dissapointed.

https://www.thegamer.com/playground-games-fable-four-years/

So they have started working on this (fable) as a concept in 2017

 

[Agent_Nobody]

You can't always use the past to predict the future but can anyone recall a studio switching to a completely different genre like this, and the game turning out well? (Situations like this are rare).

Creative Assembly making Alien Isolation is another one.

 

[yurinka]

https://www.thegamer.com/playground-games-fable-four-years/

So they have started working on this (fable) as a concept in 2017

He's the lead engineer of the studio, one of the few people working on a project since the very start of a project, since it's needed for budget estimations included in a game pitch

His work in the pitch stage of the project is to analyze if it is viable for them to make of this type and size, to design what they would need to build in terms of engine and tools, the amount of resources that it would need, the hirings needed in terms of programming, etc. to put them in the budget for the pitch of the game.

Once approved his team would make a rough prototype of some the tech they'd need for a vertical slice, and after then (with a bigger team but still way smaller than the one in full production) the vertical slice.

They did bought a new studio in late 2017 to work in the game and announced plans to hire around 200 devs to work there (in addition to the also grow their Forza studio). As I remember there was some news in 2018 that they did open like over 180 job offers to work in the Fable studio, pretty likely once they hired (takes around a couple of months after releasing the job offers) all the needed people is when they moved to full production. So they may have been in full production for around 4 years.

The average AAA takes 4 to 6 games to be developed, but some things make them need way more time: when it's a new IP for the studio, like this case. When it's a new totally new genre for the studio (things like quests, characters speaking, combat, etc. are new to them and their engine), like this case. When it's the first next gen game for the studio, like this case. When they build a new engine for the game, like in this case. When it's an ambitious big ass and detailed open world game with a lot of content, like this game. When a global pandemic happened during the development of the game, like in this case. When the team is understaffed for the amount of people that traditionally works in projects of this size, like in this case.

I think pretty likely this project will need at 6 or 7 years of development, maybe even 8 unless they outsource most of the related work (almost all AAA games have a big chunk of their development) and/or increase several times that size of around 200 devs.

I would be surprised if it gets released before 2025, late 2024 being optimistic. This is assuming the related changes, delays and other issues involved in games of this type but in the case that the project doesn't get major issues as would be the team not being capable to deliver a good enough game in this genre, which I bet won't happen. I'm confident that the development will be pretty smooth -I assume it will have the typical, common hurdles of many other AAA developments- and that they'll deliver a quality game.

 

[Ozriel]

Ok…..First time I heard this. All I heard was the team didn’t have experience creating an action RPG and it’s “incredibly complicated” which gave me the impression that whoever was there might not have ample experience in developing action RPG’s. See the link for more below.

https://boundingintocomics.com/2022...-people-with-knowledge-about-action-rpgs/amp/

Lol, you’ve taken that completely out of context.

He said the Playground guys didn’t have experience with making an RPG, but they’ve hired a lot of talent with experience and from what he’s seen, he’s very positive about what the outcome will be. Here’s a direct quote from that link:

Yet, despite his departure, de Simón holds high hopes for Fable, praising, “It’s been a super nice three years and I think Fable is a super, super interesting IP, the game has incredible potential and there’s a really good team inside.”

“The best thing that Playground has done in the years that I’ve seen is the people that it’s gotten for the team, there is a lot of talent,” he concluded. “I wish them all the luck in the world and I really want to play it.”

 

[Ozriel]

He's the lead engineer of the studio, one of the few people working on a project since the very start of a project, since it's needed for budget estimations included in a game pitch

His work in the pitch stage of the project is to analyze if it is viable for them to make of this type and size, to design what they would need to build in terms of engine and tools, the amount of resources that it would need, the hirings needed in terms of programming, etc. to put them in the budget for the pitch of the game.

Once approved his team would make a rough prototype of some the tech they'd need for a vertical slice, and after then (with a bigger team but still way smaller than the one in full production) the vertical slice.

They did bought a new studio in late 2017 to work in the game and announced plans to hire around 200 devs to work there (in addition to the also grow their Forza studio). As I remember there was some news in 2018 that they did open like over 180 job offers to work in the Fable studio, pretty likely once they hired (takes around a couple of months after releasing the job offers) all the needed people is when they moved to full production. So they may have been in full production for around 4 years.

The average AAA takes 4 to 6 games to be developed, but some things make them need way more time: when it's a new IP for the studio, like this case. When it's a new totally new genre for the studio (things like quests, characters speaking, combat, etc. are new to them and their engine), like this case. When it's the first next gen game for the studio, like this case. When they build a new engine for the game, like in this case. When it's an ambitious big ass and detailed open world game with a lot of content, like this game. When a global pandemic happened during the development of the game, like in this case. When the team is understaffed for the amount of people that traditionally works in projects of this size, like in this case.

I think pretty likely this project will need at 6 or 7 years of development, maybe even 8 unless they outsource most of the related work (almost all AAA games have a big chunk of their development) and/or increase several times that size of around 200 devs.

I would be surprised if it gets released before 2025, late 2024 being optimistic. This is assuming the related changes, delays and other issues involved in games of this type but in the case that the project doesn't get major issues as would be the team not being capable to deliver a good enough game in this genre, which I bet won't happen. I'm confident that the development will be pretty smooth -I assume it will have the typical, common hurdles of many other AAA developments- and that they'll deliver a quality game.

Again, theres a lot here that just isn’t correct.

There’s no indication the team is understaffed, they aren’t building a new engine, it’s not an all new team, they’ve got experience in making open world games with tons of content from FH series and they’ve hired experienced talent from Guerilla, Rockstar, Ninja Theory, EA and Ubisoft that are extremely familiar with quests, AI design, combat etc.

The Vandal interview from The guy who worked there claimed they originally planned for the game to be made quickly, but they’ve had to adjust their expectations to align with their relatively small team. But they’re one of the most skilled and efficient studios In gaming, working with an engine they’re extremely familiar with. So I don’t see this coming any later than 2024 at the worst. And it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that we see the game in 2023.

8 years development? That’s absurd.

 

[yurinka]

Again, theres a lot here that just isn’t correct.

There’s no indication the team is understaffed,

If you compare their size to the one of the teams who make big open world games 200 team is very small. I'm not the only one who thinks that, some important dev who works/worked there also mentioned it.

they aren’t building a new engine,

Yes, they are.

it’s not an all new team, they’ve got experience in making open world games with tons of content from FH series

The open world is way more than having a big map. It has way more things than racing games: like characters moving, talking, fighting, quests, narrative and many other things they had to implement and get good at.

and they’ve hired experienced talent from Guerilla, Rockstar, Ninja Theory, EA and Ubisoft that are extremely familiar with quests, AI design, combat etc.

Yes, obviously.

The Vandal interview from The guy who worked there claimed they originally planned for the game to be made quickly, but they’ve had to adjust their expectations to align with their relatively small team. But they’re one of the most skilled and efficient studios In gaming, working with an engine they’re extremely familiar with. So I don’t see this coming any later than 2024 at the worst. And it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that we see the game in 2023.

Yes, I think this is the dev I mentioned before. In terms of AAA game development, to make a racing game it's way smaller, faster and simpler than open world games. Specially when the studio is used to make racing games and this is their first open world action rpg. It isn't wasn't realistic at all to expect a short development for this game as it would be another FH game: they'll have to do plenty of new things here.

8 years development? That’s absurd.

Several AAA games had it in the previous gen, and even in the previous one. Every gen games take longer, so the high end next gen only games like I assume Fable is going to be will take longer than in the previous one, where the average was 4-6 years (and in some cases even longer in some cases like the ones I mentioned above).

Every generation not only the big ass AAA games require more time to be developed: they also require a bigger amount of people working on the games because these games become bigger and bigger every genereation, with more content, features and more detailed visuals. Plus on top of that they also increase the amount of post launch content in every generation for many of these games.

 

[Ozriel]

If you compare their size to the one of the teams who make big open world games 200 team is very small. I'm not the only one who thinks that, some important dev who works/worked there also mentioned it.

Obsidian is making Avowed, an open world game + Outer Worlds 2 + Grounded + Pentiment simultaneously with 200 employees. Sucker Punch had 160 employees as at 2020 when they made Ghost of Tsushima. Are Avowed and GoT not open world games?
Guerilla Games had less than 250 employees when it made Horizon Zero Dawn, an open world game, less than 4 years after releasing Killzone Shadowfall.

The dev cites the size of the Fable team as the reason why development is going on slower than they originally anticipated (faster than typical RPGs), but says it's going on well.

Yes, they are.

Absolutely false. Fable is being made using ForzaTech, an engine Playground games is extremely familiar and proficient with after using it to make 5 Forza Horizon games.

The open world is way more than having a big map. It has way more things than racing games: like characters moving, talking, fighting, quests, narrative and many other things they had to implement and get good at.

Good thing they've hired a ton of folks with a lot of experience in making massive, highly successful open world games, eh? You mention narrative, for example. Their current narrative lead was lead on Control, worked on the upcoming Avatar game, as well as Dishonored: Death of the Outsider, Guild Wars, Guild Wars 2 and Assassin's Creed Syndicate.

There's also a ton of open world skills they'll easily transfer from Forza Horizon. Water rendering, lighting, vegetation, physics...heck, they built a powerful procedural generation toolkit for vegetation in Forza Horizon 5...that's easily transferrable to Fable. Not to mention skills with terrain design.

It's not 'just a big map'. That's nonsense.

Yes, I think this is the dev I mentioned before. In terms of AAA game development, to make a racing game it's way smaller, faster and simpler than open world games. Specially when the studio is used to make racing games and this is their first open world action rpg. It isn't wasn't realistic at all to expect a short development for this game as it would be another FH game: they'll have to do plenty of new things here.

They initially expected a relatively short development time for the genre. Nobody's saying the expected to make it at the same 2 year cadence the FH games release at. I suspect their usual efficiency, their studio culture (they're often cited as one of the best places to work in the UK) and their familiarity with the engine was behind this initial optimistic assumption, but the dev specifically mentions that everything seems to be going very well and the talent was in place.

Several AAA games had it in the previous gen, and even in the previous one. Every gen games take longer, so the high end next gen only games like I assume Fable is going to be will take longer than in the previous one, where the average was 4-6 years (and in some cases even longer in some cases like the ones I mentioned above).

Every generation not only the big ass AAA games require more time to be developed: they also require a bigger amount of people working on the games because these games become bigger and bigger every genereation, with more content, features and more detailed visuals. Plus on top of that they also increase the amount of post launch content in every generation for many of these games.

Most times you see extended dev times, it's either for games with extreme levels of detail from Rockstar (i.e the GTA games) or cases where development runs into significant issues. Media Molecule for example had to completely reboot Dreams during development, and we all know about Halo Infinite's travails.

Many well run AAA games get made in 3 - 4 years. Even in this gen.