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[Moor-Angol]

I would have bought Shovel Knight for 3DS as I did for other retail only release in Japan such as Shantae 3DS and Hot Line Miami Vita, but I have no interest in the amiibo and they just sell the bundle....

 

[horuhe]

So Rakuten Books has both a daily ranking and a weekly ranking? No wonder I always got confused. I thought they were just putting out lists whenever they want.

Yes, they have both, also an hourly ranking. You can access from here. It's not really a good metric, at least not the daily, because as pointed in the note, pre-orders are counted as net sales, so they are not added to the daily ranking once the games are released.

I would have bought Shovel Knight for 3DS as I did for other retail only release in Japan such as Shantae 3DS and Hot Line Miami Vita, but I have no interest in the amiibo and they just sell the bundle....

Haha, if you just were interested in the amiibo, you would have it easier, since this one is sold just the omocha.

 

[Chris1964]

Eh.

Unless FFXV severely underperforms I wouldn't expect DQXI on PS4 to do much better..

I could see FFXV reaching 1,5M LTD in the end. Another drop but PS4 DQXI won't come close passing it.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I could see FFXV reaching 1,5M LTD in the end. Another drop but PS4 DQXI won't come close passing it.

1.2 million FFXV and 800K DQ11 is my guess.

 

[mao2]

Square Enix's Alice Order (iOS/Android) )is ending service on September 30, 2016, just 8 months after it was launched.
http://support.jp.square-enix.com/n...&tag=87bb8acc3a170f4e228f592fefff9f2c60a36817

Moe Moe Niji Taisen 3 announced for PS4, PS Vita, and PC
http://gematsu.com/2016/07/moe-moe-niji-taisen-3-announced-ps4-ps-vita-pc

Hatsune Miku (Sega's Project Diva and Project Mirai series) general producer Hiroshi Utsumi resigns
http://gematsu.com/2016/06/hatsune-miku-general-producer-hiroshi-utsumi-resigns

 

[djtiesto]

Square Enix's Alice Order (iOS/Android) )is ending service on September 30, 2016, just 8 months after it was launched.
http://support.jp.square-enix.com/n...&tag=87bb8acc3a170f4e228f592fefff9f2c60a36817

Moe Moe Niji Taisen 3 announced for PS4, PS Vita, and PC
http://gematsu.com/2016/07/moe-moe-niji-taisen-3-announced-ps4-ps-vita-pc

Videogame preservationists must have a conniption when it comes to all of these service-based mobile games. So many of them launch and shut down a few months later; it must suck if you invested a lot of time/money into one of those ones.

Hatsune Miku (Sega's Project Diva and Project Mirai series) general producer Hiroshi Utsumi resigns
http://gematsu.com/2016/06/hatsune-miku-general-producer-hiroshi-utsumi-resigns

Hopefully that won't affect the future of the series, especially as its taking off in the US as well.

 

[Aters]

1.2 million FFXV and 800K DQ11 is my guess.

I will go with one million each.

 

[Vena]

1.2 million FFXV and 800K DQ11 is my guess.

I will go with one million each.

I'd agree on the million for FFXV as a good ballpark for the floor on sales.

I'd put DQXI PS4 at ~600k based on the relative size (seemingly) of the fanbase at all interested in moving to console given the spin-offs (collective and then relatively scaled based on the PS4-only SKUs). Throw on the heavy nostalgia factor for the 3DS's presentation that can be either in 3D or old-school 2D, and your left with an overall more compelling product than the PS4's offering which will err towards to the more core who, for the most part, would have already transitioned to console.

I'm not bothering to count the NX which is, as will soon be known, a jetpack.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

ps4 doing good perhaps bolds well when they have a really big and wanted game come out for ps4

Not sure what that would be, any guesses as to what could be ps4's biggest game ?

Doesn't seem they really care bout FF and other games like they use to. I do think they are going to have a lot of releases in the end of the year and next year that start to really propel it nicely on a more common basis though

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions

[3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura (16 days) - 1.567.890
[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (11 days) - 56.789
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter (4 days) - 123.456
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 123.456
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 45.678

 

[astrogamer]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JULY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 04 to Jul 31):

[3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura (16 days) - 1,150,000
[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (11 days) - 81,000
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God / Dragon Chapter (4 days) - 175,000
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 90,000
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 45,000

 

[horuhe]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JULY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 04 to Jul 31):

[3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura (16 days) - 1.243.661
[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (11 days) - 46.013
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter (4 days) - 191.404
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 122.764
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 32.649

 

[Ryng_tolu]

2 weeks to go, Yokai Watch 3 pre orders are now under 1/3 of Yokai Watch 2 launch allinied.

Yokai Watch 2 - 944pt (+48pt that day)
Yokai Watch Busters - 517pt (+13pt that day)
Yokai Watch 3 - 314pt (+10pt that day)

I get that we are surely gonna see a better ratio, but even with an insane 2000:1 we are still gonna see a huge drop....

Yokai 2 ratio / 921:1
Yokai Busters ratio /956:1

 

[saichi]

I would assume dq11 and ff7 remake would be bigger releases at this point in Japan so next year would likely be the best year for ps4. There is also resident evil 7 early next year

I don't see either of them outsell FFXV.

 

[horuhe]

It begins...

It just won't be Microsoft best-selling game, will be the only one that is actually having sold-outs, lol.

 

[Eolz]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JULY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 04 to Jul 31):

[3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura (16 days) - 1199k
[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (11 days) - 60k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter (4 days) - 177k
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 88k
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (4 days) - 55k

 

[Regiruler]

It begins...


It just won't be Microsoft best-selling game, will be the only one that is actually having sold-outs, lol.

What does it say? Low stock?

 

[horuhe]

What does it say? Low stock?

Yes. "This product is out of stock". However it's only one store. I don't think it's having stock problems in all the country.

 

[thefro]

I would have bought Shovel Knight for 3DS as I did for other retail only release in Japan such as Shantae 3DS and Hot Line Miami Vita, but I have no interest in the amiibo and they just sell the bundle....

Looks like Shovel Knight's #2 on the Wii U eShop (behind Minecraft), and #4 on 3DS eShop.

So it's doing fairly well digitally as you might expect.

 

[DR2K]

I don't see either of them outsell FFXV.

I see both of them outselling it easily.

 

[Chris1964]

Week 27, 2016 (Jun 04 - Jul 10)

new releases

{2016.07.06}
[3DS] Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters: Saikyo Card Battle! _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Konami) (¥0)
[WIU] FreezeME _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Cosen) (¥1.388)
[WIU] 6180 the Moon _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Rainy Frog) (¥370)
[WIU] Legend of the River King 5: Wonder of the Woods _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Victor Interactive Software) (¥650)
[WIU] King's Knight _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <STG> (Square Enix) (¥475)

{2016.07.07}
[3DS] Culdcept Revolt <TBL> (Nintendo) (¥4.700)
[3DS] Culdcept Revolt (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <TBL> (Nintendo) (¥4.700)
[PSV] Shin Hayarigami 2 <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥5.800)
[PSV] Shin Hayarigami 2 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥4.762)
[WIU] Splatoon (2)(Wii U Splatoon Set - Callie & Marie Amiibo) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥37.000)
[PS4] Shin Hayarigami 2 <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Shin Hayarigami 2 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥5.714)
[PS4] Tales of Zestiria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] Tales of Zestiria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.400)
[PS4] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
[PS4] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.769)
[PS3] Shin Hayarigami 2 <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥6.800)
[PS3] Shin Hayarigami 2 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥5.714)
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.400)
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.769)
___

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt < 50k (average 45k)
02. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns < 20k (average 15k)
03. < 15k

 

[Asd202]

I don't see either of them outsell FFXV.

I think FFVII Remake will be the biggest game on PS4 in Japan.

 

[Takao]

RIP Sengoku Basara?

edit: nvm, didn't notice that was a budget reprint

 

[Ōkami]

1. [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: Moon Dwellers - 134
2. [PS4] Super Robot Wars OG: Moon Dwellers - 132
3. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns - 47
4. [3DS] Monster Hunter Generations - 37
5. [PS4] Super Robot Wars OG: Moon Dwellers (1st Print Limited Edition) - 35
6. [PSV] Refrain no Chika Meikyuu to Majo no Ryodan - 29
7. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition - 27
8. [PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online 2nd Season (Limited Edition) - 20
9. [PSV] Caligula - 14
10. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - 14
11. [3DS] Shovel Knight - 14
12. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure - 14
13. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End - 13
14. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 12
15. [PSV] Zero Time Dilemma - 11
16. [PS4] Overwatch - 11
17. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - 9
18. [PSV] Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End - 8
19. [3DS] Zero Time Dilemma - 8
20. [PSV] Zettai Kaikyuu Gakuen ~Eden with roses and phantasm~ - 7

Comgnet just did a complete overhaul to their website.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Haha, if you just were interested in the amiibo, you would have it easier, since this one is sold just the omocha.

yes, and that's what pissed me off for the most...
you want the amiibo ? buy the game bundle or buy the amiibo
you want the game ? pay 1,000yen more and take the amiibo

I'm thinking about going to used copy, probably there will be people who sell the whole thing splitted.
But I noticed that it's already sold-out in all Yodobashi stores, good.... -_-

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 26, 2016 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

01./00. [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: The Moon Dwellers <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
02./00. [PS4] Super Robot Wars OG: The Moon Dwellers <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
03./01. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous)
04./02. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
05./03. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Spirit of Justice <ADV> (Capcom)
06./04. [WiiU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo)
07./00. [PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online: Season 2 <ACT> (Capcom)
08./11. [WiiU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games (Wii Remote Controller Set) <SPT> (Nintendo)
09./05. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
10./06. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
11./00. [PSV] Zero Time Dilemma <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
12./16. [PS4] Overwatch <ACT> (Square Enix)
13./07. [PSV] Coven and Labyrinth of Refrain <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software)
14./00. [3DS] Shovel Knight (amiibo Set) <ACT> (Nintendo)
15./10. [3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Doko Don! Mystery Adventure <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
16./20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo)
17./19. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo)
18./09. [PSV] Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End <RPG> (Square Enix)
19./08. [PSV] Caligula <RPG> (FuRyu)
20./00. [3DS] Zero Time Dilemma <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
21./13. [WiiU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
22./22. [3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi <SLG> (Level 5)
23./00. [PSV] Zettai Kaikyuu Gakuen: Eden with Roses and Phantasm <ADV> (Prototype)
24./26. [WiiU] Mario Kart 8 <RCE> (Nintendo)
25./34. [WiiU] Super Mario Maker <ACT> (Nintendo)
26./00. [PS4] The Walking Dead: Season Two <ADV> (Square Enix)
27./25. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
28./12. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End <RPG> (Square Enix)
29./28. [PS4] Uncharted 4: A Thief's End <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
30./29. [PS4] UEFA EURO 2016: Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 26, 2016 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

01./03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura Set <RPG> (Level 5)
02./06. [PS4] Persona 5 (20th Anniversary Edition) <RPG> (Atlus)
03./12. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt <TBL> (Nintendo)
04./01. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./05. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi <RPG> (Level 5)
06./31. [PS3] Persona 5 (20th Anniversary Edition) <RPG> (Atlus)
07./11. [PS4] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
08./15. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura <RPG> (Level 5)
09./21. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <SLG> (Nippon Columbia)
10./20. [PS4] Persona 5 <RPG> (Atlus)
11./16. [PSV] Fate/Extella (Regalia Box) <ACT> (Marvelous)
12./02. [PS4] The Last Guardian (Limited Edition) <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
13./43. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
14./29. [PS4] FIFA 17 <SPT> (Electronic Arts)
15./14. [PSV] World of Final Fantasy (Limited Edition) <RPG> (Square Enix)
16./08. [PS4] World of Final Fantasy (Limited Edition) <RPG> (Square Enix)
17./32. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
18./35. [PSV] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
19./36. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter Set <RPG> (GungHo Online)
20./28. [PS3] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 25, 2016 (Jun 20 - Jun 26)

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are only based on sales at Rakuten Books and does not count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking.

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 26 2016

01./00. [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: The Moon Dwellers <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
02./00. [PS4] Super Robot Wars OG: The Moon Dwellers <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
03./01. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous)
04./05. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
05./06. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo)
06./08. [PSV] Refrain no Chika Meikyuu to Majo no Ryodan <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software)
07./02. [PSV] Caligula <RPG> (FuRyu)
08./03. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Spirit of Justice <ADV> (Capcom)
09./04. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
10./09. [PSV] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Futago no Ou to Yogen no Owari <RPG> (Square Enix)
11./10. [PS4] Overwatch <ACT> (Square Enix)
12./00. [PS4] Super Robot Wars OG: The Moon Dwellers (First Press Limited Edition) <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
13./07. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
14./00. [PSV] Zero Time Dilemma <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
15./14. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
16./11. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Futago no Ou to Yogen no Owari <RPG> (Square Enix)
17./00. [PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online: Season 2 <ACT> (Capcom)
18./13. [PS3] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Futago no Ou to Yogen no Owari <RPG> (Square Enix)
19./00. [PSV] Zero Time Dilemma <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
20./00. [3DS] Shovel Knight (amiibo Set) <ACT> (Nintendo)

 

[Moor-Angol]

So apparently Zero Time Dilemma started better on Vita despite the serie originally appeared on nintendo handhelds and despite the 1/4 userbase

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

 

[Vena]

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

These aren't mutually exclusive. Also, the answer is split amongst all of them.

Also, again, userbase isn't a real point for a very niche series that targets core players.

 

[horuhe]

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

I guess NX handheld should be the de facto system. There're lots of software only possible for handhelds, so for those developers if it's not about becoming smartphone developers, it's about jumping eventually to Nintendo systems.

 

[hiska-kun]

Week 27, 2016 (Jun 04 - Jul 10)
___

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt < 50k (average 45k)
02. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns < 20k (average 15k)
03. < 15k

Next week will be horrible again. And I think Culdcept will underperform too. I don't feel any ambition for this entry, same graphics of 2012...
This week will possibily be one of the lowest software numbers this year as well.

 

[Jon Carter]

It begins...


It just won't be Microsoft best-selling game, will be the only one that is actually having sold-outs, lol.

Microsoft + Japan + Wii U. The perfect storm.

So apparently Zero Time Dilemma started better on Vita despite the serie originally appeared on nintendo handhelds and despite the 1/4 userbase

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

There aren't four times more niche gamers interested in the same franchise on the 3DS than the Vita. It's probable that a lot of Vita owners own a 3DS too and will just opt for the technologically superior version. Otherwise what's the point of making a more powerful handheld if even the most niche gamers don't care about that?

 

[Oregano]

So apparently Zero Time Dilemma started better on Vita despite the serie originally appeared on nintendo handhelds and despite the 1/4 userbase

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

VLR also did disproportionately well on Vita and for ZTD dilemma Vita seems to be the lead platform with the bulk of promotion.

I think the majority of what people consider the Vita audience will go to the PS4 because that's where all the Vita games are/will go.

NX probably won't get those games and thus won't get the audience.

 

[Hero of Legend]

VLR also did disproportionately well on Vita and for ZTD dilemma Vita seems to be the lead platform with the bulk of promotion.

I think the majority of what people consider the Vita audience will go to the PS4 because that's where all the Vita games are/will go.

NX probably won't get those games and thus won't get the audience.

You mean the VN audience or the Vita audience as a whole?

Because for example I'm pretty sure most if not all of NIS' games on PS4 have severely underperformed IIRC. Though maybe due to the audience still being on Vita, I don't know. However in that same example apparently NIS MIGHT be eyeing NX, not a firm confirmation, but I recall Duckroll saying the translation was that they were evaluating it alongside PSVR I believe. So there's that.

But that aside, as horuhe pointed out, some IPs just plain need handhelds. God Eater and Toukiden, and other "MH clones (TM)" obviously need proper handhelds and while they have had PS4 versions, can't rely on them at least in Japan so if Vita's no longer viable, where else will they go?

Not to mention there's still appeal in portable entries of console games from time to time, hell that's Gust's bread and butter; an Atelier for both a console and a handheld. But also some other examples like Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition and Tales of the Abyss 3D, being portable versions for 3DS (and not Vita, interesting in retrospect).

I've always predicted we'd see Tales of Vesperia on the NX handheld following Abyss 3D. And depending on Sony's views on the portable market and their place in it, and depending on the deal made with Capcom, maybe we could actually see Street Fighter V on the NX handheld as well (like how MS were fine with their IPs long ago being on Nintendo handhelds since they didn't have their own, maybe Sony might do that following Vita's end and with them forfeiting the market as might be the case).

The point is that Sony's exit could be a huge gain for the NX handheld, but that's IF they do.

 

[Oregano]

There are a lot of variables such as; how well those games perform on PS4/PC(in the west), whether the publisher wants/needs the series of continue post-Vita, what kind of dev tools the 3DS-successor supports, if the publisher considers the game suitable for a Nintendo audience and perhaps most importantly whether NX has a handheld component at all or we're waiting another year for a 3DS successor. I just don't think the wind is blowing Nintendo's way.

I also very much doubt NIS is going to put any serious effort into a Nintendo machine. They will literally die before that happens.

 

[Hero of Legend]

There are a lot of variables such as; how well those games perform on PS4/PC(in the west), whether the publisher wants/needs the series of continue post-Vita, what kind of dev tools the 3DS-successor supports, if the publisher considers the game suitable for a Nintendo audience and perhaps most importantly whether NX has a handheld component at all or we're waiting another year for a 3DS successor. I just don't think the wind is blowing Nintendo's way.

True, but Vita can't last forever, hell I'd even say when Nintendo's next handheld comes out and likely outclasses it, I think it's going to quickly lose attention for longer being the most powerful traditional (non-mobile) handheld. And assuming the other factors are in Nintendo's favor, but I do feel the former is the strongest one.

I also very much doubt NIS is going to put any serious effort into a Nintendo machine. They will literally die before that happens.

Very true, but maybe NIS will change their tune, I mean they only just last year I think started to support PC, so change is possible.

 

[Moor-Angol]

These aren't mutually exclusive. Also, the answer is split amongst all of them.

Also, again, userbase isn't a real point for a very niche series that targets core players.

well, I didn't mean where the userbase will migrate for niche games, but for all kind of games which appear on Vita (and PS3/4) and not on 3DS

probably the right scenario is the one you described and as we already seen during the migration from PSP, some went on 3DS (MH just to say one), some kept buying a sony handheld and some (but I would dare to say "most of them") migrated on mobile

it will be also interesting to see where niche developers will move, NIS, 5pb, Idea Factory, Kadokawa,etc.

 

[casiopao]

Next week will be horrible again. And I think Culdcept will underperform too. I don't feel any ambition for this entry, same graphics of 2012...
This week will possibily be one of the lowest software numbers this year as well.

Ehh. I thought Culdcept actually did change quite a lot mechanic there which in culdcept meta, is a huge thing.

Maybe the fact that the graphics is more or less the same as the previous series makes it looks more not ambitious.

 

[horuhe]

Next week will be horrible again. And I think Culdcept will underperform too. I don't feel any ambition for this entry, same graphics of 2012...
This week will possibily be one of the lowest software numbers this year as well.

Well, although I agree with you in this week being one of the lowest week, I don't think it will be that low, and I'll explain. I do think the Splatoon release bundle gonna have a good effect software-wise. All three rankings (COMG!, Rakuten Books and TSUTAYA) are pointing Splatoon out of the Top 20, a signal directly indicating that if last week's numbers were low for the game, this week's will be worst, but the next one will be better (Culdcept's release week). So, I guess an increase for Splatoon, some legs for Minecraft and even for Mario and Sonic should help to reduce the software drop effect.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

My FFXV estimate.

-850k FW
-1.3mil LTD

Expecting a big drop due to what happened last gen with the series and also because of the state of the market.

 

[DKHF]

1.5 mil LTD is my FFXV estimate (for now).

 

[Ōkami]

My FFXV estimate.

-850k FW
-1.3mil LTD

Expecting a big drop due to what happened last gen with the series and also because of the state of the market.

That'd put XV with one of the best LTD/FW ratio of the series.

I'd put 1.3m as the low end of what XV could sell, but it needs at least 1m FW to get anywhere near.

With 850k it might just barely sell 1m LTD.

 

[Rolf NB]

So apparently Zero Time Dilemma started better on Vita despite the serie originally appeared on nintendo handhelds and despite the 1/4 userbase

Really interesting to see in the next years where the whole vita userbase will emigrate:
NX handheld or PS4/PC/Android

It's the first day-and-date 3DS+Vita multiplat in ... err ... five years? There's basically no empirical data for market splits between these platforms in Japan outside of ZTD.

I'm not surprised in the slightest. Given a real, immediate choice like this, why wouldn't the premium version sell better? I mean, the N3DS LL also sells better than the regular 3DS. There is definitely a market in Japan for shinier and fancier, even if it costs a little more.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I think FFVII Remake will be the biggest game on PS4 in Japan.

If it were 1 game I would agree. But not if its split up into 3+ games.

 

[Asd202]

If it were 1 game I would agree. But not if its split up into 3+ games.

Those other games won't even be released on PS4 .

 

[Aters]

That'd put XV with one of the best LTD/FW ratio of the series.

I'd put 1.3m as the low end of what XV could sell, but it needs at least 1m FW to get anywhere near.

With 850k it might just barely sell 1m LTD.

I can see it happens if the game is good. Same happended to FFXIII-2. People got burnt by FFXIII so the first week of FFXIII-2 was very ugly, then people realized FFXIII-2 is decent actually so they started to buy it again. It had a 500k FW and 900k LTD IIRC.

 

[Ōkami]

I can see it happens if the game is good. Same happended to FFXIII-2. People got burnt by FFXIII so the first week of FFXIII-2 was very ugly, then people realized FFXIII-2 is decent actually so they started to buy it again. It had a 500k FW and 900k LTD IIRC.

Well sure, wom could carry the game far, but for it to start with 850k and sell 1.3m XV would need the kind of legs VII had.

Really, it needs at least 1m FW to get anywhere (and to be clear, I'm not saying it won't).

 

[Aters]

Well sure, wom could carry the game far, but for it to start with 850k and sell 1.3m XV would need the kind of legs VII had.

Really, it needs at least 1m FW to get anywhere.

Like I said, it doesn't take a spectacular game like FFVII to have long legs. Any game surpassing the expectation can do that, for example FFXIII-2. Right now the expectation for FFXV is pretty low, probably the lowest in history, so it's not difficult to surpass it. People will be like "so it's not that bad after all, I will check it out". Also, it's not like they have many choices if they want to know what an AAA JRPG looks like.

 

[Vena]

Really, it needs at least 1m FW to get anywhere (and to be clear, I'm not saying it won't).

Here I'll say it for you! It won't.

I'm a team player!

 

[Kresnik258]

http://www.4gamer.net/games/990/G999024/20160701111/

Interview with SCEJA prez about PS4, PSVR and Vita.



In talking about the Vita, he once again spiels out the "Minecraft has helped it reach a new market with children" line and cites Dragon Quest Builders as another game targeting this audience. He says he can't comment on a Vita successor (because there isn't one, lol) but says he believes Vita will continue to grow.

While I'm sure it's just lip service, it did get me to thinking what else they could actually do to appeal to kids with the device. Minecraft has been a runaway success well on its way to 1m+ physical sold, and they've gotten 2D Minecraft and Dragon Quest Minecraft on the platform as well.

Other than that, all kid-friendly software is firmly entrenched with the 3DS, save the odd possible game they can get from Vita-friendly publishers like Bamco with Taiko no Tatsujin. Any potential IP Sony had which could help is well and truly dead (Ape Escape; Boku no Natsuyasumi) and they don't seem to have any interest in chasing any market that isn't western AAA anymore anyway. I had wondered if Story of Seasons would ever test the market on Vita with Marvelous again being very Vita-friendly, but it's (understandably) just targeting 3DS at the moment.

There literally isn't anything else I could realistically think of that would fit with this market and would be achievable for Sony.

I know Vita is a console on its way out without a successor, but it's also likely going to be the platform with by-far-and-a-way the biggest Sony-published game of this generation, a game that's helped keep weekly console sales alive for like a year and a half. And all Sony have to show for that market is a Dragon Quest spinoff which didn't seem to do all that much.