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Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2016 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
First day sellthrough {2016.07.21}

[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) (¥6.800) - 60%
[PS4] Black Rose Valkyrie <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 30%
[PSV] New Interpretation Stranger of Sword City <RPG> (Experience) (¥3.800) - 40-50%
[3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) (¥4.800) - 20%
 

hiska-kun

Member
Media Create Sell-through and comparison

01./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800) - 632.135 / NEW <63,07%> [Units shipped => 1.002.275]

01./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.07.11} (¥4.968) - 693.538 / NEW <73,60%> [Units shipped => 942.307]

01./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 1.316.707 / NEW <92,16%> [Units shipped => 1.428.719]

Less sales and sell-through
 

casiopao

Member
Media Create Sell-through and comparison

01./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800) - 632.135 / NEW <63,07%> [Units shipped => 1.002.275]

01./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.07.11} (¥4.968) - 693.538 / NEW <73,60%> [Units shipped => 942.307]

01./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 1.316.707 / NEW <92,16%> [Units shipped => 1.428.719]

Less sales and sell-through

YW3 just can't catch a break there.T_T

First day sellthrough {2016.07.21}

[PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) (¥6.800) - 60%
[PS4] Black Rose Valkyrie <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 30%
[PSV] New Interpretation Stranger of Sword City <RPG> (Experience) (¥3.800) - 40-50%
[3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) (¥4.800) - 20%

Nooo Sumikkooo.T_T Hope there is some leg for that fluffy being lol.>_<
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
In shocking news:

shockingnewsmnq80.png
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Generally whatever was in #1 for the day was making somewhere between $2 to $4 million a day, at the last time we got numbers.

Mind, the market keeps growing and it's been about a year.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Well, at least GamesMaya says that Yo-kai Watch 3 is having a good second week.
Kids have received their grades from school this week, and "good boys" can get a present. Also word of mouth seems good.
 
I will attend at the Level 5 Fan Event next wednesday. Not the Vision event, but the after show.
Is it ok if I gave you a barrage of questions to ask Hino if he's there?

I think the YW fanbase would love to have some of their questions answered.

My Twitter has lots of YW followers.
 

Bruno MB

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 01 to Aug 28):

[3DS] Dragon Ball: Fusions (25 days) -
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey V: The End of the Long Myth (25 days) -
[PS4] Ratchet & Clank: The Game (23 days) -
[PS4] Tales of Berseria (11 days) -
[PS3] Tales of Berseria (11 days) -
[PS4 - PS3] Sengoku Basara: Sanada Yukimura-Den (4 days) -

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: July 27 2016 09:00 am (EST)


Attention:
  • Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
  • Multiplatform entries are the combined available sales of each platform described.

Rules:
  • Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
  • The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
  • The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
  • The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
  • The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
  • Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
 

Yeshua

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 01 to Aug 28):

[3DS] Dragon Ball: Fusions (25 days) - 70000
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey V: The End of the Long Myth (25 days) - 120000
[PS4] Ratchet & Clank: The Game (23 days) - 30000
[PS4] Tales of Berseria (11 days) - 220000
[PS3] Tales of Berseria (11 days) - 70000
[PS4 - PS3] Sengoku Basara: Sanada Yukimura-Den (4 days) - 150000
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Week 30, 2016 (Jun 25 - Jul 31)

new releases

{2016.07.27}
[3DS] Shift DX _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Cosen) (¥462)
[3DS] Mini Sports Soul _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ETC> (Mechanic Arms) (¥462)
[3DS] Super Athlete Stick _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <SPT> (Rainy Frog) (¥370)
[WIU] Animal Crossing: Wild World _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) (¥879)
[WIU] Pokemon Ranger: Shadows of Almia _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Pokemon Co.) (¥879)

{2016.07.28}

[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) (¥4.800)
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter (&#949;) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) (¥4.074)
[3DS] Tetsudou Nippon! Rosen Tabi: Kikansha Thomas-hen Oigawa Tetsudou! <SLG> (Sonic Powered) (¥5.800)
[PSV] Toukiden 2 # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (Treasure Box) <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥10.800)
[PSV] Toukiden 2 (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.800)
[PSV] World's Longest 5 Minutes # <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥3.980)
[PSV] World's Longest 5 Minutes (Limited Edition) <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥5.980)
[PSV] World's Longest 5 Minutes (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥2.857)
[PSV] Kujiragami no Tearstilla # <ADV> (Piacci) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Kujiragami no Tearstilla (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Piacci) (¥8.800)
[PSV] Kujiragami no Tearstilla (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Piacci) (¥5.800)
[PSV] Strawberry Nauts # <ADV> (Entergram) (¥5.980)
[PSV] Strawberry Nauts (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Entergram) (¥7.980)
[PSV] Strawberry Nauts (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Entergram) (¥5.074)
[PS4] Toukiden 2 # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (Treasure Box) <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥11.800)
[PS4] Toukiden 2 (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS4] The Idolm@ster: Platinum Stars # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] The Idolm@ster: Platinum Stars (Platinum Box) <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥12.400)
[PS4] The Idolm@ster: Platinum Stars (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS3] Toukiden 2 # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS3] Toukiden 2 (Treasure Box) <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥11.800)
[PS3] Toukiden 2 (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
___

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter < 130k (average 115k)
02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura < 105k (average 95k)
03. [PSV] Toukiden 2 < 90k (average 80k)
00. [ALL] Toukiden 2 < 160k (average 150k)
 

Oregano

Member
That'd be decent for Toukiden 2 wouldn't it?. The original didn't sell much more than that first week.

Puzzle and Dragons uber bomba holy shit. It's actually surprising just how little staying power the brand has had on 3DS.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Toukiden 1: ~190-200K
Toukiden Kiwami: ~90-113K

Puzzle & Dragons: ~535-543K
Puzzle & Dragons Mario: ~178-180K

Continuing decay largely. Toukiden 2 did better than the Extreme edition, but it felt like they were spending a fair amount of money this go around.

That'd be decent for Toukiden 2 wouldn't it?. The original didn't sell much more than that first week.

Puzzle and Dragons uber bomba holy shit. It's actually surprising just how little staying power the brand has had on 3DS.
It would be a ~25% decline. I don't think that's a good trajectory for a series even if the absolute numbers don't seem hugely apart.
 

Takao

Banned
Continuing decay largely. Toukiden 2 did better than the Extreme edition, but it felt like they were spending a fair amount of money this go around.

They spent that money chasing after an audience that didn't care to the alienation of the one that did.
 

Oregano

Member
Toukiden 1: ~190-200K
Toukiden Kiwami: ~90-113K

Puzzle & Dragons: ~535-543K
Puzzle & Dragons Mario: ~178-180K

Continuing decay largely. Toukiden 2 did better than the Extreme edition, but it felt like they were spending a fair amount of money this go around.


It would be a ~25% decline. I don't think that's a good trajectory for a series even if the absolute numbers don't seem hugely apart.

Yeah it's definitely not the direction they want to be going in but it means they probably have another release or two which is better than most franchises have left in them.

It's amazing how swiftly the Japanese (dedicated) market has disintegrated though. The decay seems to have rapidly accelerated in the last year or two. I wonder why?
 

Sterok

Member
Last year the lineup was pretty mediocre, but the big games like Yokai Busters, Monster Hunter, Animal Crossing, Rhythm Heaven, Fire Emblem, Metal Gear, Dragon Quest Heroes, and more all performed well in line with or beating expectations. This year there's a handful of small increases (Mario at Rio), some that have essentially stayed flat (Dark Souls), and just about everything else has gone down. Brutal year thus far.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
They spent that money chasing after an audience that didn't care to the alienation of the one that did.

It looked like the next victim of forced PSV->PS4 transition.

If they sticked to the old and tested formula maybe it would do better.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
It's amazing how swiftly the Japanese (dedicated) market has disintegrated though. The decay seems to have rapidly accelerated in the last year or two. I wonder why?

Yeah, I've been talking about this with Charlequin lately.

My summary of the situation was that the Japanese dedicated market has moved from "It's looking pretty hard to meet my mortgage payments" to "My entire house is on fire."

As for the speed, I think it's ultimately a combination of the negative feedback loop on Japanese dedicated games (less buyers -> less investment -> less buyers) and the positive feedback loop on mobile (where you have companies investing tons of money to try and appeal to the quickly growing midcore audience on the platform, making games that are progressively seen as more appealing replacements for buying dedicated device games instead of just augments to them).

As for platform specific issues, I would put them in two categories.

For the PlayStation branch, there's an issue that development is largely moving toward the PS4 and the West and/or Asia. This makes the products less available and/or less appealing locally. Mind, I still think this is the right business decision for most of these products since I just don't see a sufficient audience existing locally as costs spiral past the addressable market. These are also publicly traded companies that are supposed to generate growth, not stable or marginally declining earnings. Please note that this doesn't mean any of them are going to necessarily succeed overseas, but rather that this is where the market pressure is pushing things.

As for the 3DS, I think the issue stems from a mix of franchise fatigue (there is a dearth of successful new IP entering the dedicated space, and most existing franchises are having issues expanding in ways that excite Japanese consumers) and how outdated using the thing feels compared to using your phone. It doesn't help that most of Nintendo's own top shelf output is on the Wii U as well recently, which is a non-starter platform. This Fall's big output from Nintendo consists of Pokemon on 3DS and two mobile phone games.
 

zeromcd73

Member
YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter < 130k (average 115k)
02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura < 105k (average 95k)
03. [PSV] Toukiden 2 < 90k (average 80k)
00. [ALL] Toukiden 2 < 160k (average 150k)

The year of death continues.
 
That's honestly better than I was expecting for Toukiden, if YSO's prediction is true.

With that said, it's a decline from the first entry with a sequel that's presumably more expensive (PS4 development & open world). I understand that they can't stay on Vita forever (and it won't have a successor) so they're trying to migrate the IP elsewhere, but I feel they'd be better served making another hunting game tailored to the Vita (with a PS4 version if necessary) and just ride out the IP while they can, then make something more appropriate to the console market (like they're doing with Nioh) once Vita dies.

As a side note, I like how Omega Force have flipped from terrible Vita port (Attack on Titan) to fantastic Vita port (Dragon Quest Heroes 2) back to terrible again (Toukiden 2). It's not like the areas were much smaller on DQH2 either.
 

Oregano

Member
Yeah, I've been talking about this with Charlequin lately.

My summary of the situation was that the Japanese dedicated market has moved from "It's looking pretty hard to meet my mortgage payments" to "My entire house is on fire."

As for the speed, I think it's ultimately a combination of the negative feedback loop on Japanese dedicated games (less buyers -> less investment -> less buyers) and the positive feedback loop on mobile (where you have companies investing tons of money to try and appeal to the quickly growing midcore audience on the platform, making games that are progressively seen as more appealing replacements for buying dedicated device games instead of just augments to them).

As for platform specific issues, I would put them in two categories.

For the PlayStation branch, there's an issue that development is largely moving toward the PS4 and the West and/or Asia. This makes the products less available and/or less appealing locally. Mind, I still think this is the right business decision for most of these products since I just don't see a sufficient audience existing locally as costs spiral past the addressable market. These are also publicly traded companies that are supposed to generate growth, not stable or marginally declining earnings. Please note that this doesn't mean any of them are going to necessarily succeed overseas, but rather that this is where the market pressure is pushing things.

As for the 3DS, I think the issue stems from a mix of franchise fatigue (there is a dearth of successful new IP entering the dedicated space, and most existing franchises are having issues expanding in ways that excite Japanese consumers) and how outdated using the thing feels compared to using your phone. It doesn't help that most of Nintendo's own top shelf output is on the Wii U as well recently, which is a non-starter platform. This Fall's big output from Nintendo consists of Pokemon on 3DS and two mobile phone games.

I've mentioned it before but I do really wonder if Nintendo going mobile was the final nail in the coffin. The biggest argument over the last five years for dedicated hardware has probably been Nintendo IPs but if they're going to appear on mobile too whats the point in dedicated hardware?

It's also not even clear whether or not Nintendo is bringing out a new handheld. If they are they need to hit a home run. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they're just going to release a Nvidia shield-esque handheld which is just an android tablet combined with a traditional handheld. It might even be their best hope.
 
I think proper mobile integration with their hardware would be the key to make huge sales for Nintendo.

For example, you could earn Pokecoins through making progress of a certain Nintendo game.

Not the best example, but I do believe there's potential to get mobile integration to work and make it work with Japan.
 

Vena

Member
That'd be decent for Toukiden 2 wouldn't it?. The original didn't sell much more than that first week.

Puzzle and Dragons uber bomba holy shit. It's actually surprising just how little staying power the brand has had on 3DS.

I wouldn't consider a 25% decline as "decent", especially not on the basis of the much larger cost to produce for a PS4/OW game over a Vita one.

P&D is dad.

As for the 3DS, I think the issue stems from a mix of franchise fatigue (there is a dearth of successful new IP entering the dedicated space, and most existing franchises are having issues expanding in ways that excite Japanese consumers) and how outdated using the thing feels compared to using your phone. It doesn't help that most of Nintendo's own top shelf output is on the Wii U as well recently, which is a non-starter platform. This Fall's big output from Nintendo consists of Pokemon on 3DS and two mobile phone games.

To be fair to Pokemon, it may well see a huge surge over past entries. Either way it will completely crush anything else to market this year and breathe *some* life into software for the FY but that's about it. Persona 5 and EOV seem to be the only other series' entry that will see growth as everything else wallows in misery and decay.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I think proper mobile integration with their hardware would be the key to make huge sales for Nintendo.

For example, you could earn Pokecoins through making progress of a certain Nintendo game.

Not the best example, but I do believe there's potential to get mobile integration to work and make it work with Japan.

I guess part of my inclination would be to point out the following:


It's true that there's a halo effect on other Pokemon products, similar to how some people who have good experiences with the iPhone go on to buy a Macbook. We have seen the 3DS have a sales uptick in select nations.

However, a lot of people are also just going to favor looking for more content on their phone, and over time it will be provided to them, either by Nintendo, or by other vendors that manage to tap into a similar appeal.

There are a few good examples of this. Farmville stayed on Facebook well into the Smartphone revolution because they had large scale agreements with Facebook to do so. It ultimately caused Farmville to collapse and for Hay Day to become ragingly successful as the best Farmville-like game on mobile.

Similarly, people were willing to gobble up just about any Flappy Bird clone in existence once the game was pulled from the app store.

Now, Pokemon isn't going to implode on handhelds, but I do think mobile products aren't necessarily going to guarantee good growth for handhelds as opposed to just generating even more mobile gamers on the hunt for good mobile content.

To be fair to Pokemon, it may well see a huge surge over past entries. Either way it will completely crush anything else to market this year and breathe *some* life into software for the FY but that's about it. Persona 5 and EOV seem to be the only other series' entry that will see growth as everything else wallows in misery and decay.

I do feel it's worth pointing out that Persona 4 was a pretty slow starter and that the brand was built up over the course of eight proceeding years in order to enable Persona 5 to actually grow.

If Persona 5 was released in 2012 and Persona 6 was coming out this year, I'm not sure that would actually be a growth product.
 

Vena

Member
I do feel it's worth pointing out that Persona 4 was a pretty slow starter and that the brand was built up over the course of eight proceeding years in order to enable Persona 5 to actually grow.

If Persona 5 was released in 2012 and Persona 6 was coming out this year, I'm not sure that would actually be a growth product.

I mean, if you look at this year's potential growth brands, most of them have been years off (with Pokemon main series being absent for a year and now having a huge resurgence in mind share, the recent COMG numbers are... encouraging).

Brand fatigure has hit hard (as you noted), and Persona 5 as the example on hand has taken nearly a decade to build its brand up such that we may see some serious growth in the series.

Also if you don't mind me jumping in to the other discussion, I do think the potential to "gain" more to the now rather niched market of dedicated hardware isn't completely undermined by providing a better mobile experience as the product do ultimately provide different things. There will be a market for bigger games that a phone by virtue of buttons or battery just won't provide well. That said, I do think the %-gained will be small but the moves, I feel, are more about mindshare than they are about really trying to make huge impacts with any given product.

Also I think for Nintendo (and your Farmville example) this is the best of both worlds scenario if they continue to cater the products to the different markets. They can then succeed on mobile with the mobile-friendly products carrying their brands, and have other experiences on their own hardware. In this way they skirt the Farmville example and collapse by taking advantage of both markets. In this scenario, even if they pull in no one to their hardware, they have "won" in a way.

Of course this will all depend on how Nintendo plays its hand and if they do so well.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
How did Persona 3 and 4 start and where did they end?

For the initial PS2 releases:

Persona 3: 127,472 / 210,319
Persona 4: 211,967 / 294,214

duckroll has historically proposed ~500K LTD for Persona 5, which doesn't seem unreasonable.

Generally the thread has been more bullish than that, but I think given how this year has went, it's worth considering some downside on that number as well.
 

Ōkami

Member
  1. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura - 139
  2. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi - 137
  3. [PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA - 57
  4. [PS4] Blackrose Valkyrie - 28
  5. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition - 23
  6. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu - 18
  7. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns - 13
  8. [PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (Limited Edition) - 12
  9. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - 11
  10. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - 11
  11. [3DS] Pokémon AlphaSapphire - 10
  12. [PS4] Blackrose Valkyrie (Limited Edition) - 9
  13. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot - 9
  14. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 8
  15. [PSV] Shinshaku Tsurugi no Machi no Ihoujin: Kuro no Kyuuden - 8
  16. [PS4] Overwatch - 8
  17. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt - 8
  18. [3DS] Pokémon OmegaRuby - 6
  19. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure - 6
  20. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End - 6
Pokémon Sun and Moon at 434 points.
 
For the initial PS2 releases:

Persona 3: 127,472 / 210,319
Persona 4: 211,967 / 294,214

duckroll has historically proposed ~500K LTD for Persona 5, which doesn't seem unreasonable.

Generally the thread has been more bullish than that, but I think given how this year has went, it's worth considering some downside on that number as well.
Thank you kindly!

Hmm, I suppose ~400K LTD would be really well considering the numbers you've supplied. ~500K could be an optimistic ceiling of sorts, I guess.

As far as WW, I don't know, ~2M? Or is that too low/high?

Either way, it is good to see P5 will have considerable growth domestically.
 

Ōkami

Member
Persona 4 kept selling for years through the PS2 The Best releases it got.

Combining everything it sold 358k

Persona 4 Golden on Vita also sold really well and will probably outsell the original, all releases+digital it's a 345k.

Vita version attracted a new audience thanks to the anime, I wouldn't bet many double dip on both versions.

Sales of the fighting games were also pretty impressive (Arena sold more than any version of SF4), the Persona fanbase has done nothing but grow over the years.

500k sounds likely for total sales after a few years on both consoles.
 
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