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Michael Pachter - Gamepass will destroy Sony. Sony will cease to exist.

ReBurn

Gold Member
It's almost as if the people championing PS Now never actually tried it.
I've subscribed to it off and on over the years. I would go there to play some old games when nostalgia hit me. For what it is I enjoyed it. It's not gamepass, though. PS Now is a streaming service for old games with some last gen downloads tacked on. Gamepass is a download service for games from the current gen back with a hit and miss streaming service added on. Both are pretty good at what they do but they're not the same. Gamepass needs more good games and PS Now needs newer games.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
But Spartacus will change everything, right? Where the hell is it btw? We've been hearing about it for months and still nothing. Sony is obviously worried about Game Pass, hence this new Spartacus thing they got cooking. Hopefully it's not another dud like PS Now though. They just need to emulate what Microsoft is doing. That's what people want.
Do they though? As of now, more than 50% of Xbox userbase isn't even subscribed to it, and they just have to pay $1 to convert from XBLG to GP.

And no, Sony isn't banking on Spartacus. If they were, they'd have changed their entire business model and shifted to GP type day-one model for Spartacus. They are just combining PS+ and PS Now as their customers have been demanding for years now.

Their current model is absolutely fine and more successful than Xbox's GP business model, as is evident by the revenue and profitability of the division.
 
It's almost as if the people championing PS Now never actually tried it.
I did try psnow, got the trial of GP on PC as well... They're more or less the same except for 1st party games (day and date is a lie because you can pay extra to get access before "release").

These services are download stores that let you temporarily get access to the games in their libraries.... Unless they added naked girls to the list in Gamepass I can't see what's special about it.
 
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Velius

Banned
Is there a tally out there on how many times Pachter has been correct?

I doubt it's a high number...like at all
He's made a couple good predictions but there's a reason he's notorious. He predicted that Vita would bomb. So he was right on that. He predicted that the Wii U would fail. He was right on that too. He predicted that the PS4 and XB1 would change up the industry in terms of features such as digital libraries.

Most people indict him because he adamantly stated that the Wii was going to bomb, that motion control gaming would appeal to no one, and that Nintendo would subsequently drop out of the console race. Which is about as wrong as someone can be.
 
With Activision on board, MS will have around 20,000 employees in their studios.
While we all like to say that MS is only third in gaming revenue, once Activision goes through Microsoft will be the largest game publisher by far.
A good % of the recent Sony acquisitions were support studios and PC porting studios. MS and Sony both use outside studios to help with their games. Microsoft is using Crystal Dynamics to work on Perfect Dark, and Asobo to do Flight sim for instance.

It may not sound palatable to hear that MS will be putting two or three times as many AAA games out than Sony, but it's true. It's a numbers game.
And since MS bought all those studios like Obsidian, Ninja Theory etc, nearly every single one has pretty much doubled in size.
Playground Games currently has over 120 jobs open in linkedin.
MS knows to keep people in GP they are going to have to have a certain amount of new games coming into the service. They are buying the studios they need to get this done.
Sony will increase their first party studios I'm sure. They just have to keep buying studios like they did with Bluepoint, House and Insomniac etc.
I think Sloclap would be a great get. They wouldn't be expensive, and put out fun beat em up games.
Another 10 or so studios like that and they are able to do a new release every month or two.
MS will never put out three times as many AAA games as Sony because AAA isn't their goal with gamepass, they've already said they want to focus on high end AA games. Most of the studios they picked up several years ago were small studios and most of them have not doubled in size and one of those new studios (The Initiative) that people thought was going to be some huge AAA studio never even staffed up enough to make a game and that's why Crystal Dynamics was brought in, it sounds like that studio was never even supposed to make games on their own to begin with.

MS's biggest problem is studio management, it has been all along even when they only had a small handful of studios to manage they couldn't seem to get things right and Spencer was involved that entire time. The issue with a subscription service is you have to constantly put out new content either by making it yourself or buying it from a 3rd party, it works for video streaming because you can do a whole season of a show in about a year, you can't make a game that's worth a damn in under 3-5 years these days, even smaller AA titles take several years to make.
 

ManaByte

Gold Member
they've already said they want to focus on high end AA games
Meme Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
Undeniable means too good not to get, and again I'm not talking about Sony players having to go and get it, I'm talking about people who play on PC and Xbox, as well as a large chunk of newbies into gaming. The value proposition it presents is just too good to ignore.
The value proposition argument you make only applies if you care about raw numbers and not actually finding games you want to play.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
We have Michael Pachter in the front page again... I guess he wins..
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism

Wow, I never knew this clip existed.

But it was common sense. Unless Gamepass completely blows up and gets like 200 million subscribers or something like absolutely gigantic like that, it can be a financially difficult decision to make games like Last of Us 2 and God of War and Horizon Forbidden West and give them all away, knowing that people have the option for just subscribing for $1, play the game, and turn off the subscription.

Not to say that MS won't make AAA games and release them on GP day one (they will), but there will be a lot more smaller-scoped games -- which are also fine, by the way, as long as they are done well, something similar to Ori (which are awesome games!)

And personal opinion: that's a big reason why I don't want Sony to follow this model. I love Sony's big AAA blockbuster games, and I doubt they'll be able to do it if they release everything on PS+ day one. When both companies follow different paths, we get different things. Which is a better option for gamers.
 
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OldBoyGamer

Banned
This seems on a jar with that EA guy who said single player games were dead….

I mean, anything’s possible in this new shitty world we live in I guess. But I can’t see it myself.

MS def has splashed the cash. But can they cope with the sheer number of high quality AAAA games that are now under their umbrella? That shit ain’t easy! Only a generation ago we saw them closing down studios. So. I’ll hold onto my gambling money for now thanks
 

Gavon West

Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
Not saying Sony will be pushed out of the game, but it cannot be denied that this generation is quite different from the others. And Microsoft does have a significant leg up on dev houses, cloud gaming and subscription services. Sony may be winning the "console war" but they aren't quite with the times with the rest. That could end up being detrimental to their future if they don't break away from the traditional business model they have today. Don't sleep on Microsoft. We've seen many examples of this in the last couple of years! That's a super short time frame for such significant changes in the gaming landscape
 
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Lognor

Banned
Do they though? As of now, more than 50% of Xbox userbase isn't even subscribed to it, and they just have to pay $1 to convert from XBLG to GP.

And no, Sony isn't banking on Spartacus. If they were, they'd have changed their entire business model and shifted to GP type day-one model for Spartacus. They are just combining PS+ and PS Now as their customers have been demanding for years now.

Their current model is absolutely fine and more successful than Xbox's GP business model, as is evident by the revenue and profitability of the division.
Yeah, they do. Where did you get the stat that 50% of Xbox owners don't have Game Pass? And it's funny that you've been claiming that a significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1. We know that's not true. Most people are paying full price. That's how these things work. People in large numbers can't be fussed to go through the hassle of getting cheap Game Pass in the long term. It's not happening.

Sony is concerned, hence why they're doing Spartacus. Even if all it is is combining PS Plus and Now, they're still doing something because they're not happy with the current numbers. If their current model was absolutely fine they wouldn't be going through all the costs of combining these programs. They're losing mindshare. Spartacus is their answer.
 

OmegaSupreme

advanced basic bitch
Yeah, they do. Where did you get the stat that 50% of Xbox owners don't have Game Pass? And it's funny that you've been claiming that a significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1. We know that's not true. Most people are paying full price. That's how these things work. People in large numbers can't be fussed to go through the hassle of getting cheap Game Pass in the long term. It's not happening.

Sony is concerned, hence why they're doing Spartacus. Even if all it is is combining PS Plus and Now, they're still doing something because they're not happy with the current numbers. If their current model was absolutely fine they wouldn't be going through all the costs of combining these programs. They're losing mindshare. Spartacus is their answer.
That's a pretty easy percentage to get. What was the last official word from ms about gamepass subscribers? 25-27 million? Something like that. How many og xbox one consoles and up are out in the wild? Not to mention PC since I'm sure they lump those numbers in with consoles.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Yeah, they do. Where did you get the stat that 50% of Xbox owners don't have Game Pass?
Xbox has 50 million + users. Gamepass just hit 25 million on Xbox + PC. Means less than 50% of Xbox userbase is on GP.

If everyone wants GP, why don't more Xbox people subscribe to GP, considering they only have to pay $1?
And it's funny that you've been claiming that a significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1. We know that's not true. Most people are paying full price.
Where did I say that a "significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1?" I said that they can upgrade to GP by paying $1, and that is factually true.

But now I am interested in seeing your source of "most people are paying full price." Do share that data/source.
Sony is concerned, hence why they're doing Spartacus. Even if all it is is combining PS Plus and Now, they're still doing something because they're not happy with the current numbers. If their current model was absolutely fine they wouldn't be going through all the costs of combining these programs. They're losing mindshare. Spartacus is their answer.
They're not happy with the current numbers? Their PS+ subscription already has almost 50 million subscribers while Gamepass has only 25 million, and Sony doesn't even do $1 offers. The PlayStation division generates $25 billion in revenue, while Xbox is at $15 billion, even after acquiring Zenimax and being 2x the size of PlayStation Studios.

I am sure Sony is plenty happy with the current numbers.
 
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Max_Po

Banned
Seems to me MP is wrong again. SONY is starting to do it themselves observing the reaction from GT7 community about microtransactions.
 

Rivet

Member
I agree with him
Xbox is already outselling ps5 in North America and also in Europe
And sony are also killing GT7 with their dumb decisions

PS5 is sold out everywhere. Only time Xbox sells more in Europe is when there's no PS5 shipment. Software still sells a lot more on PlayStation according to all the stats we get. I highly doubt anything has changed. Outside of the US, PlayStation is dominating like it always has been.
 

Bryank75

Banned
I agree with him
Xbox is already outselling ps5 in North America and also in Europe
And sony are also killing GT7 with their dumb decisions

Ahhh... no it's not... last figures were Xbox at 10 million shipped and PS5 at 17.5 million.

You can readily get Series X and S in europe... demand is not that high.

Xbox supply was higher in europe for one week and you are running away with that one anomaly to make incorrect assumptions about the longterm

I agree about GT7, a great game with needless GAAS / always online forced into it.....
I am also worried about Jim Ryan and his lack of focus on console and exclusives.... seems he really doesn;t have his eyes on what made them successful.... he is chasing dreams of having his own fortnite and 'billions of players'.... guy is out of touch with his customers.
 

Swift_Star

Banned
But Spartacus will change everything, right? Where the hell is it btw? We've been hearing about it for months and still nothing. Sony is obviously worried about Game Pass, hence this new Spartacus thing they got cooking. Hopefully it's not another dud like PS Now though. They just need to emulate what Microsoft is doing. That's what people want.
Who are those people? Source?
 

laynelane

Member
I agree about GT7, a great game with needless GAAS / always online forced into it.....
I am also worried about Jim Ryan and his lack of focus on console and exclusives.... seems he really doesn;t have his eyes on what made them successful.... he is chasing dreams of having his own fortnite and 'billions of players'.... guy is out of touch with his customers.

I get that I don't speak for everyone, but this longtime customer has no interest in the ten live service games Sony has in development. I understand that they want and should expand but I'm just hoping there's enough room in this future for people like me - single-player game fan with no interest in multiplayer, GAAS, or MTX.
 
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Swift_Star

Banned
I get that I don't speak for everyone, but this longtime customer has no interest in the ten live service games Sony has in development. I understand that they want and should expand but I'm just hoping there's enough room in this future for people like me - single-player game fan with no interest in multiplayer, GAAS, or MTX.
There is room for us. There’s room for both.
 

Lognor

Banned
Xbox has 50 million + users. Gamepass just hit 25 million on Xbox + PC. Means less than 50% of Xbox userbase is on GP.

If everyone wants GP, why don't more Xbox people subscribe to GP, considering they only have to pay $1?

Where did I say that a "significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1?" I said that they can upgrade to GP by paying $1, and that is factually true.

But now I am interested in seeing your source of "most people are paying full price." Do share that data/source.

They're not happy with the current numbers? Their PS+ subscription already has almost 50 million subscribers while Gamepass has only 25 million, and Sony doesn't even do $1 offers. The PlayStation division generates $25 billion in revenue, while Xbox is at $15 billion, even after acquiring Zenimax and being 2x the size of PlayStation Studios.

I am sure Sony is plenty happy with the current numbers.
Even if it's 50% that's a massive amount of people. Look at PS+ in comparison. It has far less than 50% of the PS4/5 userbase subscribed. So 50% for Game Pass sounds great! And let's not even compare it to PS Now because that wouldn't look great. But isn't PS+ something people like and want? And that's less than 50%, like I said. So Game Pass must be even more desirable!

Sony is clearly not happy or they would not be doing this spartacus initiative. It's pretty simple to understand.
And we know less than a year ago Sony was reporting that more than 1 million people unsubscribed to PS+. Not sure if they've righted the ship since then, but if numbers continue then it's clear Sony is trying to get more people on board. And they are allegedly doing this by rolling PS+ and PS Now into the same program.
 
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Whenever I think of Pach, I think of this sketch by Hey Ash Whatcha Playing ...

Still can't comprehend the guy is making a living the videogame industry, yet seems to be wrong every single time...
 

Goalus

Member
I believe it was already mentioned in those articles that it’s due to stocking issues not because the demand is higher.
If those stocking issues continue until 2025, it doesn't matter that they are the reason for the low sales numbers. The facts will be low sales numbers then, and emphasizing over and over again that they are only low due to lack of supply won't change the reality.
 
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kingfey

Banned
Wow, I never knew this clip existed.

But it was common sense. Unless Gamepass completely blows up and gets like 200 million subscribers or something like absolutely gigantic like that, it can be a financially difficult decision to make games like Last of Us 2 and God of War and Horizon Forbidden West and give them all away, knowing that people have the option for just subscribing for $1, play the game, and turn off the subscription.

Not to say that MS won't make AAA games and release them on GP day one (they will), but there will be a lot more smaller-scoped games -- which are also fine, by the way, as long as they are done well, something similar to Ori (which are awesome games!)

And personal opinion: that's a big reason why I don't want Sony to follow this model. I love Sony's big AAA blockbuster games, and I doubt they'll be able to do it if they release everything on PS+ day one. When both companies follow different paths, we get different things. Which is a better option for gamers.
Smaller scoope means indie games. MS is lacking those games, especially family games. Now they have it with Spyro and crash.

As for profits, MS has been focusing on the longer term. Their goal is the xcloud, and utilizing Azura to achieve it.

As for Sony quality, MS wont be able to achieve those easily right now. Sony has huge advantages, which MS doesnt have. Hollywood connection, Mocap experience, and Alot of studios, which are expert in this field, and share their success to each other. MS would need 5-10 year to catch up to that experience.
 

kingfey

Banned
Yeah, they do. Where did you get the stat that 50% of Xbox owners don't have Game Pass? And it's funny that you've been claiming that a significant number of people are getting Game Pass for $1. We know that's not true. Most people are paying full price. That's how these things work. People in large numbers can't be fussed to go through the hassle of getting cheap Game Pass in the long term. It's not happening.

Sony is concerned, hence why they're doing Spartacus. Even if all it is is combining PS Plus and Now, they're still doing something because they're not happy with the current numbers. If their current model was absolutely fine they wouldn't be going through all the costs of combining these programs. They're losing mindshare. Spartacus is their answer.
MS doesnt have those numbers.

Current gamepass is 25m. Alot of xbox users are on fence. MS needs a reason for these guys to subscribe. You also have Live gold users. Unless MS eliminates those users, they wont sub to the service.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
You also have Live gold users. Unless MS eliminates those users, they wont sub to the service.
I don't know. I was a Live gold user and I did the 3 year upgrade trick a few weeks ago. Why pay $60 per year for Live gold when I can pay the same thing for 3 years of ultimate.
 
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If those stocking issues continue until 2025, it doesn't matter that they are the reason for the low sales numbers. The facts will be low sales numbers then, and emphasizing over and over again that they are only low due to lack of supply won't change the reality.

Problem with your theory is that there will be more supply in the future. And when that happens the PS5 will outsell the Series if demand hasn’t changed.
 

kingfey

Banned
I don't know. I was a Live gold user and I did the 3 year upgrade trick a few weeks ago. Why pay $60 per year for Live gold when I can pay the same thing for 3 years of ultimate.
Because people are dumb. Because people dont want to spend $180 upfront, on a service they arent sure they will use it for 3 years. Because people are poor and they cant spend $180 upfront. Because people dont like gamepass, or any subscription service. Because gamepass doesnt support their country.

There are alot of reason. Not everyone will subscribe to a subscription service. Its why these companies give you cheap offer, to entice people. Its why MS struggled increasing gamepass numbers in 4 years, despite being the best deal in the gaming industry.
 

Topher

Gold Member
I don't know. I was a Live gold user and I did the 3 year upgrade trick a few weeks ago. Why pay $60 per year for Live gold when I can pay the same thing for 3 years of ultimate.

Because that trick isn’t going to last. Eventually you will be paying $180 a year. For some that is fine as it gives them better value with Game Pass, but seems like many just want Gold.
 
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ReBurn

Gold Member
Because that trick isn’t going to last. Eventually you will be paying $180 a year. For some that is fine as it gives them better value with Game Pass, but seems like many just want Gold.
Until the trick doesn't work any more there's no reason to not do it. Why spend more than necessary? 🤷🏼‍♂️
 

Topher

Gold Member
Until the trick doesn't work any more there's no reason to not do it. Why spend more than necessary? 🤷🏼‍♂️

I agree. Technically, you could spend $12 a year on Game Pass by not renewing. The thing is most consumers are not that savy or they don't care about it enough. They just want their online gameplay and $60 a year is fine with them. So why bother to do the trick at all?

Because people are dumb. Because people dont want to spend $180 upfront, on a service they arent sure they will use it for 3 years. Because people are poor and they cant spend $180 upfront. Because people dont like gamepass, or any subscription service. Because gamepass doesnt support their country.

There are alot of reason. Not everyone will subscribe to a subscription service. Its why these companies give you cheap offer, to entice people. Its why MS struggled increasing gamepass numbers in 4 years, despite being the best deal in the gaming industry.

Or simply, they just want online and that costs a lot less than Game Pass Ultimate. That doesn't make them 'dumb'. They are smart to only pay for what they want/need.
 
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