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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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feynoob

Banned
No it is not. It’s an MP game. The fact that they were going to require an “online connection” should tell you. Next thing you going to tell me L4D/Back 4 Blood/Suicide Squad are SP games amirite?
Yeah, you are not understanding it my friend.

The online mode is for the co-op. You can play the entire game by yourself.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Not to disagree with the quoted post there, but something to watch will be Microsoft challenging, or ignoring, the CMA's prohibition order. The CMA is trying to impose a global restriction on ABK and MS as a result of its UK market review, and I don't believe the CMA has that authority. If Microsoft move to challenge the order, or makes moves to ignore the order - indicating they're at least prepared to challenge it, then I'd wager that - unlikely as it is - they're trying to find a way around the CMA's block. If that happens, I'd say all bets are off.

I'm not sure Microsoft has an avenue to ignore the CMA's order legally. Challenging laws by breaking them isn't a wise course of action. Either way, CMA is imposing the same "global restriction" that the EC, FTC or any other regulator would effectively apply. If the restrictions were not global then subverting these laws would be as easy as Michael Pachter claimed and antitrust laws would only apply to single nation corporations, leaving multination conglomerates free reign to stand up facade corporations in problematic countries.

How is the CMA imposing a global restriction?

CMA is prohibiting MS from acquiring or investing in ABK and that applies globally to prevent MS from spinning off their UK presence as Michael Pachter suggested. That's my understanding anyway.
 

feynoob

Banned
Any time the "Microsoft leaves/ringfences UK" talk comes up I just assume there's some new that's wrong with the deal and we will find out about it later.
There is nothing wrong with the deal.
It's dead as the doctors confirmed it on apr 26.
 

gothmog

Gold Member
I'm not sure Microsoft has an avenue to ignore the CMA's order legally. Challenging laws by breaking them isn't a wise course of action. Either way, CMA is imposing the same "global restriction" that the EC, FTC or any other regulator would effectively apply. If the restrictions were not global then subverting these laws would be as easy as Michael Pachter claimed and antitrust laws would only apply to single nation corporations, leaving multination conglomerates free reign to stand up facade corporations in problematic countries.



CMA is prohibiting MS from acquiring or investing in ABK and that applies globally to prevent MS from spinning off their UK presence as Michael Pachter suggested. That's my understanding anyway.
It only applies if they care to do business in the UK. That's not a global restriction, that's a UK restriction. If this was a country with a small GDP and no physical MS/Azure presence putting this ban/restriction out there Microsoft would have laughed. They're doing this as a logic bomb to become truly free of any accountability by pretending local restrictions have no power over them as a global company.
 

feynoob

Banned

Microsoft Corporation v Competition and Markets Authority​

Registered​

24/05/2023

Tribunal​

Status​

Summary of application published on 26 May 2023.
The first case management conference took place on 30 May 2023.
A further case management conference has been listed for 12 June 2023.


Justice Marcus Smith was the guy at the case management conference

Professor Anthony Neuberger is currently Professor of Finance at Cass Business School at the City University of London where, since 2016, he has also been the Deputy Head of the Finance Faculty. so a big shot economic expert for the market definition talks

Ben Tidswell was admitted as a barrister and solicitor in New Zealand in 1988 and joined City firm Ashurst in 1993, becoming admitted to the roll of solicitors in England & Wales in 1994 and a solicitor advocate in 1999. A partner in the London Disputes practice at Ashurst since 2000, he has worked on a wide range of commercial litigation and regulatory matters, including several cases before the Tribunal over a period of almost 20 years. He was the Global Chairman of Ashurst from 2013 to 2021. Quite the resume
 

feynoob

Banned
images
 

Duchess

Member
How is the CMA imposing a global restriction?
Apparently, the contract between Activision and MS states that the CMA must approve the merger in order for it to move forward.

The CMA have rejected the merger, therefore it can't move forward.

If MS and Activison wish to move forward without the CMA, they will need to draw up a new contract, which presumably would need to be put to the vote before shareholders, who may well reject it if the CMA isn't involved.

That's as far as I understand it.
 

Topher

Gold Member
It only applies if they care to do business in the UK. That's not a global restriction, that's a UK restriction. If this was a country with a small GDP and no physical MS/Azure presence putting this ban/restriction out there Microsoft would have laughed. They're doing this as a logic bomb to become truly free of any accountability by pretending local restrictions have no power over them as a global company.

But UK's local restrictions do have power over them as a global company.
 

reksveks

Member
The comity thing is more about the UK making the EC and other regulators decisions irrelevant and they have a duty to stay within their respective boundaries.

Not saying I agree with the argument but the argument will be that the way that the CMA went through the process of looking at remedy and the intervention that they are imposing, they didn't look at whether they were infringing on the rights of other regulators.

CAT did very slightly bring it up in the Meta appeal but I don't think it's going to work any better in this case.
 
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Pelta88

Member
Apparently, the contract between Activision and MS states that the CMA must approve the merger in order for it to move forward.

The CMA have rejected the merger, therefore it can't move forward.

If MS and Activison wish to move forward without the CMA, they will need to draw up a new contract, which presumably would need to be put to the vote before shareholders, who may well reject it if the CMA isn't involved.

That's as far as I understand it.

I appreciate the summary.

Reading through recent developments, the absolute desperation of Microsoft seems almost explicit. This idea of segregating the UK market from a slate of IP they've had access to since it's inception, is lunacy. 70 Billion wont begin to compensate for the self imposed catastrophe that Microsoft will initiate.

First and foremost, they will lose the UK. A country which by their own admission to regulators, is their only "significant" instal base outside of the US. In essence, they'll gift wrap the EU and the UK to Sony. Secondly the messaging...

Truth be told I don't want to even consider how bad that'll be in the main stream media. Microsoft will fully realize the evil corp mantra, for COD? And also inspire other publishers to invest in a legitimate rival/successor that can be played globally. Which has other implications. Microsoft is seemingly on a trajectory of cutting their own nose off to spite their face. And implementing that as a strategy.
 

jm89

Member
The comity thing is more about the UK making the EC and other regulators decisions irrelevant and they have a duty to stay within their respective boundaries.

Not saying I agree with the argument but the argument will be that the way that the CMA went through the process of looking at remedy and the intervention that they are imposing, they didn't look at whether they were infringing on the rights of other regulators.
The argument can be made the other way right?

If EC made a decision that could infringe on the CMAs rights. Where do we draw the line? Do all regulators have to accept similar remedies just because another regulator decision is made irrelevant.
 

wolffy66

Member

It is crazy that some people are applauding the idea that a company as large as MS is planning to blow off a nation's regulatory agency. A regulatory agency that was specifically required as part of the agreement that MS signed. All in the name of fanboyism? Game Pass? Winning? I am becoming less of a MS/Xbox fan with each tantrum they throw.

I do wonder what the punishment would look like. It would have to be harsh enough that nobody else ever dared try it again. Even if MS somehow pulled off the Hail Mary and maneuvers out of the UK to get around it, I would have to think it would severely impact any future business with MS in the UK. Aren't they already facing an investigation in the UK for Cloud services? I am a little surprised MS is willing to die on this hill all while it is Activision actually holds the power to kill this deal. Then what? Team green turns on Activision?
I really don't get this take. The UK and CMA don't rule the world? Do people really want one country's laws to be enforced in every nation on earth?

This wouldn't be blowing off a countries laws.

It would be saying "ok you don't want this in the UK. We will abide by that and set it up so it follows your laws" There's nothing illegal or bad about that. Google does it in China and I'm sure there's lots of other examples.
 

reksveks

Member
The argument can be made the other way right?

If EC made a decision that could infringe on the CMAs rights. Where do we draw the line?
That's true but not the situation in this case. If the EC blocked a deal outright, that the CMA approved. The merging parties would complain about the EC not going doing their duty of respecting comity.

Do all regulators have to accept similar remedies just because another regulator decision is made irrelevant.
Not about accepting similar remedies, it's about making sure your inventions just like law are as much as possible, are respectful of other countries jurisdictions. I can't think of a good remedy that would have work, something like not being able to include ABK in the UK for GP seems a possible one. That would have respected comity and not been similar at all imo. This difficultly is in part, why I don't think it's going to work.

The Google + China example is a decent example. Freedom of speech law is also a good topic especially given some of the laws in Germany (which I ain't too bothered by)
 
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I really don't get this take. The UK and CMA don't rule the world? Do people really want one country's laws to be enforced in every nation on earth?

This wouldn't be blowing off a countries laws.

It would be saying "ok you don't want this in the UK. We will abide by that and set it up so it follows your laws" There's nothing illegal or bad about that. Google does it in China and I'm sure there's lots of other examples.
The point is that the contract was written by Microsoft and Activision to act this way. That multiple agencies across the planet need to all agree. This was SIGNED. Now you are arguing that the sticking point can be ignored?

The contract failed as written. That is the end of it. The agencies have the right to make their own decisions, they have no reason to change their minds just because some other country argue differently. And it is absolutely insane that fanboys are arguing that an agency powered to make decisions is somehow suppose to be peer pressured to change their minds for the financial benefit of Microsoft.

If Xbox want to kill itself by making it operate exclusively in USA and Brazil, that is the stupid decision they get to make themselves. I am starting to understand why some cults end with people setting themselves on fire.
 

jm89

Member
That's true but not the situation in this case. If the EC blocked a deal outright, that the CMA approved. The merging parties would complain about the EC not going doing their duty of respecting comity.
Not about accepting similar remedies, it's about making sure your inventions just like law are as much as possible, are respectful of other countries jurisdictions. I can't think of a good remedy that would have work, something like not being able to include ABK in the UK for GP seems a possible one. That would have respected comity and not been similar at all imo. This difficultly is in part, why I don't think it's going to work.
In a situation where either regulators decision may not be respectful towards either countries? Who is right in this case?
 
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Topher

Gold Member
I really don't get this take. The UK and CMA don't rule the world? Do people really want one country's laws to be enforced in every nation on earth?

This wouldn't be blowing off a countries laws.

It would be saying "ok you don't want this in the UK. We will abide by that and set it up so it follows your laws" There's nothing illegal or bad about that. Google does it in China and I'm sure there's lots of other examples.

There isn't a way for Microsoft to abide by UK laws and also close on the ABK deal (as things currently stand). Like it or not, this is part of the challenge companies face when becoming a multinational corporation.
 

reksveks

Member
Either regulators decision may not be respectful towards either countries laws? Who is right in this case?
In this case or in general?

In this case, the EC remedies/intervention would only applicable in the EC though, it's not forcing MS to do business in the UK in anyway and it's not forcing the CMA to make a specific decision.

MS argument is the CMA invention would have to be a global one and the CMA knew that would be the case therefore they didn't do their duty to think about comity. I dont know how that argument is going to work.
 
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feynoob

Banned
In this case or in general?

In this case, the EC remedies/intervention would only applicable in the EC though, it's not forcing MS to do business in the UK in anyway and it's not forcing the CMA to make a specific decision.

MS argument is the CMA invention would have to be a global one and the CMA knew that would be the case therefore they didn't do their duty to think about comity. I dont know how that argument is going to work.
Does mean CMA is violating CMA verdict on this one?
 

jm89

Member
In this case or in general?

In this case, the EC remedies/intervention would only applicable in the EC though, it's not forcing MS to do business in the UK in anyway and it's not forcing the CMA to make a specific decision.

MS argument is the CMA invention would have to be a global one and the CMA knew that would be the case therefore they didn't do their duty to think about comity. I dont know how that argument is going to work.
Even though we are talking about this case, it would become general issue as you'd be opening a can of worms for future cases.

Lets say FTC win the court case and they block it, has that tipped the scale for the CMA still needing to be respectful to the EC? Add another few regulators blocking it, those regulators also need to think about the EC?
 
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wolffy66

Member
There isn't a way for Microsoft to abide by UK laws and also close on the ABK deal (as things currently stand). Like it or not, this is part of the challenge companies face when becoming a multinational corporation.
Guess that's for lawyers to figure out
 

reksveks

Member
I mean blocking MS from investing on Activision.
Since that decision is going to be global, wouldn't that go against EU decision?
Yeah, kinda. The more important thing is that goes against the EC ability to make a decision on any investments that MS makes in ABK.
 
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wolffy66

Member
The point is that the contract was written by Microsoft and Activision to act this way. That multiple agencies across the planet need to all agree. This was SIGNED. Now you are arguing that the sticking point can be ignored?

The contract failed as written. That is the end of it. The agencies have the right to make their own decisions, they have no reason to change their minds just because some other country argue differently. And it is absolutely insane that fanboys are arguing that an agency powered to make decisions is somehow suppose to be peer pressured to change their minds for the financial benefit of Microsoft.

If Xbox want to kill itself by making it operate exclusively in USA and Brazil, that is the stupid decision they get to make themselves. I am starting to understand why some cults end with people setting themselves on fire.
MS and Activision obviously think it can be changed so idk what else there is that I can add to that. At least if they really are hiring lawyers to work around. It's all rumors at this point
 

Pelta88

Member



I have trouble believing Microsoft could be that retarded. As incompetent as they've shown themselves to be, I don't see how Activision stomachs the loss in sales. We're talking billions year in year out. That said, it'd be hilarious for Microsoft to demonstrate just how meaningless all their PR is. It would be a showcase of how hollow their "Better For Gamers" & "More choice" PR actually was.

Forget shooting themselves in the foot. This move would be a bazooka to the chest level of catastrophic. Which is why I find it difficult to believe.
 
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Elios83

Member
The point is that the contract was written by Microsoft and Activision to act this way. That multiple agencies across the planet need to all agree. This was SIGNED. Now you are arguing that the sticking point can be ignored?

The contract failed as written. That is the end of it. The agencies have the right to make their own decisions, they have no reason to change their minds just because some other country argue differently. And it is absolutely insane that fanboys are arguing that an agency powered to make decisions is somehow suppose to be peer pressured to change their minds for the financial benefit of Microsoft.

If Xbox want to kill itself by making it operate exclusively in USA and Brazil, that is the stupid decision they get to make themselves. I am starting to understand why some cults end with people setting themselves on fire.

It's just copium to try to not accept reality.
As you stated the current contract is dead and they all know it.
The conditions they decided by themselves to make this acquisition happen failed to materialize.
Microsoft and Activision can't really do anything about this deal until both parts re-negotiate the contract and find new terms that are approved by shareholders.
I really doubt that trying to leave the UK and act like a rogue company not accepting regulatory decisions is an option that will be signed in their next contract if they lose the appeal :messenger_grinning_sweat:

Their only feasible choice is to go through the appeal and if it goes in their favour then hope that CMA won't ask divestement again in 2024.
The real question is if waiting that much is an option for them. Their lawyers seemed to suggest that no is the answer, but of course it might be a bluff.
 

Three

Member
MS argument is the CMA invention would have to be a global one and the CMA knew that would be the case therefore they didn't do their duty to think about comity. I dont know how that argument is going to work.
Don't buy MS' bullshit in a last ditch effort accusing the CMA of not thinking about comity. They might still win this appeal but if they were interested in comity MS would have allowed international waivers of confidentiality in the merger case. MS actively blocked open communication between agencies when it was between the FTC and CMA because it wasn't beneficial to them. Now they are worried that the CMA have made an independent decision?
 

zapper

Member

if luna closes even the weak criticism that the cma miscalculated the cloud market share should fall?
 

reksveks

Member
Even though we are talking about this case, it would become general issue as you'd be opening a can of worms for future cases.

Lets say FTC win the court case and they block it, has that tipped the scale for the CMA still needing to be respectful to the EC? Add another few regulators blocking it, those regulators also need to think about the EC?
CMA and FTC always have to be respectful of the EC ability to make a decision (that doesn't mean accept the same decision or similar ones, it's just being aware of their roles/responsibilities), even if the FTC win in administrative and federal court.

The CMA however will get a boost if the FTC wins re the other arguments, slightly harder to prove irrationality.
 

feynoob

Banned

if luna closes even the weak criticism that the cma miscalculated the cloud market share should fall?
That would strengthen their argument.
 

reksveks

Member

if luna closes even the weak criticism that the cma miscalculated the cloud market share should fall?
This seems to be more about killing it for the Web app. I wish Sony moves to a Web app and kills the ps now desktop app.
 
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jm89

Member
CMA and FTC always have to be respectful of the EC ability to make a decision (that doesn't mean accept the same decision or similar ones, it's just being aware of their roles/responsibilities), even if the FTC win in administrative and federal court.

The CMA however will get a boost if the FTC wins re the other arguments, slightly harder to prove irrationality.
Respectful probably wasn't the correct term.

What i was trying to say was if CMA need to consider how their decision could effect the EC, and you have a growing number of regulators making decisions the same as the CMA that could effect the EC in a similar way, your going to have a growing list of countries that are what going to need to find some kind of compromise for the EC? I know this is moving a bit away from this case, but it would set a precedent.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
Enterprise Act 86(1)


uhCAQjr.png


CMA's order of prohibition legally extends outside of the UK.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
MS isn’t thinking anything, it’s just news speculation. They have appealed the CMA, and are preparing to fight FTC.

Want to know what MS is thinking?



Translated - Last round being loud and aggressive wasn’t kosher. Twitter warriors making us look bad. Please calm down, stay positive. We want to be the good guys even if we disagree with the outcome.

These aren’t fighting words.
 
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feynoob

Banned
Not sure why MS would think CMA didn't do their duty to think about comity when CMA addressed it specifically.

LkaZPVm.png


1RLeKkM.png
Enterprise Act 86(1)


uhCAQjr.png


CMA's order of prohibition legally extends outside of the UK.
MS lawyers reviewing the documents
 
So, guys, solve this question for me. Is this "But Microsoft can rent a building in the UK to establish an Activision UK to get the deal through" logic, that some posters on the GamingLeaksAndRumours subreddit, possible? Or are they inhaling the hopium hard and making stuff as they go due to the stuff MLex has posted? Can Microsoft actually do this? Or does the 10 year block that the CMA put in place (that prohibits investment and purchase of stocks) make this impossible? I'm confused because the posters on that subreddit have made that narrative above thanks to the remarks made by MLex.
 
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reksveks

Member
Not sure why MS would think CMA didn't do their duty to think about comity when CMA addressed it specifically.

LkaZPVm.png


1RLeKkM.png
Going to be a tough case, they are going to have to come up with some good argument/reciepts. I don't think it's going to go anywhere.

Enterprise Act 86(1)


uhCAQjr.png


CMA's order of prohibition legally extends outside of the UK.
They all have the ability to make decisions to make orders that have international impact whilst having that duty to take other regulators as part of consideration. CAT did tell the CMA previously that they needed to think about it.

Personally I am going to play ToTK but nice talking about the concept of comity.
 
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feynoob

Banned
So, guys, solve this question for me. Is this "But Microsoft can rent a building in the UK to establish an Activision UK to get the deal through" logic, that some posters on the GamingLeaksAndRumours subreddit, possible? Or are they inhaling the hopium hard and making stuff as they go due to the stuff MLex has posted? Can Microsoft actually do this? Or does the 10 year block that the CMA put in place (that prohibits investment and purchase of stocks) make this impossible? I'm confused because the posters on that subreddit have made that narrative above thanks to the remarks made by MLex.
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