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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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feynoob

Banned
Obviously from Reddit Edgelords:
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Delete that shit. It's addicting as hell.
 

Ogbert

Member
Microsoft side stepping the UK would give the FTC the ammunition it needs to literally disembowel Microsoft.

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From what I understand (happy to be corrected), the FTC has to meet a higher threshold of evidence to block the merger; they need to demonstrate harm rather than simply consider it a risk.
 

Nydius

Member
read the posts above. the CMA is going to be sitting down with MS again and higher ups from the government. something is happening

Pure hopium that has been discussed ad nauseum in this thread.

The CMA has made their decision. It is final. They cannot/are not going to reverse course on it until or unless CAT tells them they have to revisit it.

The time for Microsoft to sit down and convince them was before the ruling.

The ruling has been made. Any "sitting down with government officials" is smoke and mirrors.

Nothing happens until the CAT appeal.
 
It’s the equivalent of how the CMA blocked it. Each require appeal processes to move forward.
No it's not that's not how US law works. When the CMA blocks it's a true block barring closing in the UK. The FTC does not have the power to do that, companies routinely close regardless of what the FTC says, to block the FTC would need to plead to the judicial branch for that injunction and would have to make a good case for it. These days the judicial branch disagrees with the FTC in the majority of cases including preliminary injunction orders. So the FTC wouldn't be able to block MS from closing specially after the EU approval. The CMA on the other hand can block on its own, the CMA does not have the checks and balances on its power that the FTC does. They work very differently.
 

xHunter

Member
Cheers to all the people who pretended that they "read" somewhere that MS was not even allowed to carve out the UK. I'm all for civil disagreements but name calling is childish (especially when you're 100 percent uninformed). Regardless of whether or not MS will exercise their right to carve out the UK, these ppl were absolutely incorrect when they said it's not even possible, and they mocked me for even suggesting it's possible. Stay classy. Nydius Nydius
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This has to be the worst "exposing" post i have seen in a long time. You literally posted the same 2 posts 2 times.

Also who the fuck has 92 tabs open, dafuq?
 

M16

Member
Read my post again. Cheers.
you're misunderstanding my point. the CMA wants to talk again. potentially striking some type of deal because of the leaked info about MS bypassing them(one possibility)? and putting out the blueprint for others to follow, which is a threat to the existence of the CMA.
so what im saying is, its possible that the whole CAT appeal will become irrelevant, and we dont have to wait for it for an approval.

this meeting is extremely strange, especially after the CMA got so defensive after the EU ruling and attacked them, and now they want to talk to MS again? even after they ghosted MS for the last weeks before the final decision?
 
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X-Wing

Member
you're misunderstanding my point. the CMA wants to talk again. potentially striking some type of deal because of the leaked info about MS bypassing them(one possibility)? and putting out the blueprint for others to follow, which is a threat to the existence of the CMA.
so what im saying is, its possible that the whole CAT appeal will become irrelevant, and we dont have to wait for it for an approval.

where did you read that these talks were an initiative from the CMA?
 

Elios83

Member
Pure hopium that has been discussed ad nauseum in this thread.

The CMA has made their decision. It is final. They cannot/are not going to reverse course on it until or unless CAT tells them they have to revisit it.

The time for Microsoft to sit down and convince them was before the ruling.

The ruling has been made. Any "sitting down with government officials" is smoke and mirrors.

Nothing happens until the CAT appeal.
They pretend to not get that CMA can't reverse anything without CAT telling them to go through the case again.
Just like they pretend they don't get that every decision involving the crazy idea of trying to bypass UK law must be written down in a contract and approved by shareholders :messenger_grinning_sweat:

All the moves and leaks are pretty much telling us one thing, for Microsoft this thing won't go past July.
 

Dick Jones

Gold Member
A few year old accounts with under 500 posts with their only recent activity being in this thread...
Captain America Avengers GIF by Marvel Studios

Assemble!

you're misunderstanding my point. the CMA wants to talk again. potentially striking some type of deal because of the leaked info about MS bypassing them(one possibility)? and putting out the blueprint for others to follow, which is a threat to the existence of the CMA.
so what im saying is, its possible that the whole CAT appeal will become irrelevant, and we dont have to wait for it for an approval.

this meeting is extremely strange, especially after the CMA got so defensive after the EU ruling and attacked them, and now they want to talk to MS again? even after they ghosted MS for the last weeks before the final decision?
What I read is Microsoft's Karen wants to speak to the manager because of the CMA decision. The government will listen to MS as they are a multinational but, they won't get involved because the CMA made their decision and the CAT are looking at the judicial review. The UK government isn't the CMA lad.
 
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GHG

Gold Member
A few year old accounts with under 500 posts with their only recent activity being in this thread...
Captain America Avengers GIF by Marvel Studios

Assemble!


What I read is Microsoft's Karen wants to speak to the manager because of the CMA decision. The government will listen to MS as they are a multinational but, they won't get involved because the CMA made their decision and the CAT are looking at the judicial review. The UK government isn't the CMA lad.

Some of them even take screenshots of their own posts on the day they post them. Strange behaviour all round.

Hope it's worth it for them.
 

Ogbert

Member
Pure hopium that has been discussed ad nauseum in this thread.

The CMA has made their decision. It is final. They cannot/are not going to reverse course on it until or unless CAT tells them they have to revisit it.

The time for Microsoft to sit down and convince them was before the ruling.

The ruling has been made. Any "sitting down with government officials" is smoke and mirrors.

Nothing happens until the CAT appeal.
It may or may not be hopium, but there is absolutely nothing to stop a regulator reconsidering its position and discussing any given decision with the impacted parties.

It’s rare, but entirely up to the regulatory body.
 

M16

Member
What I read is Microsoft's Karen wants to speak to the manager because of the CMA decision. The government will listen to MS as they are a multinational but, they won't get involved because the CMA made their decision and the CAT are looking at the judicial review. The UK government isn't the CMA lad.


you obviously missed something in the report above
Smith is set to hold talks with Hunt as well as officials from the Competition and Markets Authority
 
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The article you linked doesn't say what you think it does. Microsoft is looking into possibilities, that is all.
Whats the point of you replying to a post that you haven't even read? What's the point of citing an article you haven't even clicked on? Why in Gods name would you execute the final option before you exhaust all other options? MS should only do this when it becomes the best option available not at random.

"They have multiple avenues to closing the best option is working it out with the CMA before the CAT judgement, this is something the CAT prefers to having a trial. The second would be for the CAT to quash the arguments made by the CMA which is a power bestowed to the CAT. The last would be to close without CMA approval as you can see in that article MS has multiple avenues they can take to close without the CMA including moving ABK out of the UK entirely."

Learn to read buddy.
 

Topher

Gold Member
The tally does matter because global regulators work together now more than ever hence why the CMA constantly referenced the FTCs intent to block when defending itself in their testimony to parliament. The bit about the CAT upholding the CMA ruling also isn't true you don't seem to be following the acquisition as deeply, I urge you to take a look at this recent news article.

As you can see the reality is Microsoft is gonna close this acquisition regardless of what the CMA does, the cost of missing out on ABK in the long run is much higher than closing without CMA approval. They have multiple avenues to closing the best option is working it out with the CMA before the CAT judgement, this is something the CAT prefers to having a trial. The second would be for the CAT to quash the arguments made by the CMA which is a power bestowed to the CAT. The last would be to close without CMA approval as you can see in that article MS has multiple avenues they can take to close without the CMA including moving ABK out of the UK entirely.


What people don't understand about companies is that everything they do is to make money. If it makes MS more money in the long run to close the ABK acquisition without CMA approval then that's what they will do, it's simple math.

That article is based on MLex which has been posted previously so yeah, I'm well aware. Perhaps you should look closer at what was actually said in that MLex report. It says MS is "actively looking at ways" to close the deal despite CMA. I mean.....of course, they are. Why wouldn't they? That doesn't mean they have come up with a way to do it. It also doesn't mean Microsoft is going to take extremes options either (what I called 'stupid shit'). So no, there is no "reality" as of yet where Microsoft's next steps are set in stone. If anything, what we are seeing here is more posturing like they have done throughout this process.

Contrary to some of the post in this thread it's interesting that it's even an option.

I'm quite certain many of us in this thread have discussed the possibilities and consequences of a moves such as this. I'm still of the opinion that there is no way MS goes nuclear here. Frankly, I think Microsoft is bluffing and they know they are bluffing. But if I'm wrong then the fireworks will be quite the show, I'm sure.
 

Dick Jones

Gold Member
you obviously missed something in the report above
Probably they will be there to explain to Jeremy Hunt that Karen Smith is talking bollix. More of a courtesy to the Chancellor to brief him ahead of the meeting and support him in their chat. It's called the civil service lad, support the elected officials so they don't do anything stupid.
 
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Ogbert

Member
The day the CMA bends over to Microsoft pressure will be a dark day to the United Kingdom's democracy.
They left the EU to not be told what to do by external, "unelected" officials, and are now being put under pressure by spoiled brats. I hope they keep their head high.
Dude, we bend over all the time.

These companies don’t even pay their tax.
 
Ah yes, the good ole intellectually dishonest discourse stifle retort on a discussion forum.
Does it offend you to know a trillion dollar company and it's army of lawyers know more about law and business than random gamer? If you really do know better you should phone them up you're about to become quite rich from your up and coming DeepEnigma Consulting LLC business.
 

bitbydeath

Member
No it's not that's not how US law works. When the CMA blocks it's a true block barring closing in the UK. The FTC does not have the power to do that, companies routinely close regardless of what the FTC says, to block the FTC would need to plead to the judicial branch for that injunction and would have to make a good case for it. These days the judicial branch disagrees with the FTC in the majority of cases including preliminary injunction orders. So the FTC wouldn't be able to block MS from closing specially after the EU approval. The CMA on the other hand can block on its own, the CMA does not have the checks and balances on its power that the FTC does. They work very differently.
There’s more steps involved but the FTC have announced to block it.
 

M16

Member
Probably they will be there to explain to Jeremy Hunt that Karen Smith is talking bollix. More of a courtesy to the Chancellor to brief him ahead of the meeting and support him in their chat. It's called the civil service lad, support the elected officials so they don't do anything stupid.
right... the CMA is just going to show support LOOL
 
That article is based on MLex which has been posted previously so yeah, I'm well aware. Perhaps you should look closer at what was actually said in that MLex report. It says MS is "actively looking at ways" to close the deal despite CMA. I mean.....of course, they are. Why wouldn't they? That doesn't mean they have come up with a way to do it. It also doesn't mean Microsoft is going to take extremes options either (what I called 'stupid shit'). So no, there is no "reality" as of yet where Microsoft's next steps are set in stone. If anything, what we are seeing here is more posturing like they have done throughout this process.



I'm quite certain many of us in this thread have discussed the possibilities and consequences of a moves such as this. I'm still of the opinion that there is no way MS goes nuclear here. Frankly, I think Microsoft is bluffing and they know they are bluffing. But if I'm wrong then the fireworks will be quite the show, I'm sure.
MS can't be too bold and flat out say fuck the CAT fuck the CMA fuck the UK we're closing today! The main reason as I outlined earlier is because there a cheaper better options to closing than this not to mention the CAT is siding with MS over the CMA and is trying to fast track the CAT hearing to be ASAP at MS' behest this bodes well for MS prospects. This means MS has to be very hush hush about it's closing regardless plans as they could be seen as disrespectful to the CATs noble efforts.

But the more time goes on the more closing without the CMA becomes a more realistic option. If MS was willing to abandon the acquisition they would have abandoned it when the CMA blocked like the majority of businesses do but this is a 70b acquisition the scale of which makes spending billions to get it through nowhere near as painful as with other acquisitions. But there's something even bigger than this acquisition on the line here and that's the precedent that the CMA alone can become the world police of mergers, this would threaten EVERY MS aquisition from now on so this needs to be dealt with now. You can imagine how costly it would be for MS should they allow this status quo to remain.

I generally agree with your post and think that MS will not go nuclear simply because they won't need to, there's too much stacked against the CMA currently but this acquisition cycle has been full of surprises.
 

Ogbert

Member
We are, I’m afraid.

Concessions are made, promises are given. Ironically, leaving the EU was a chance for the UK to start enforcing fat stricter tax regimens. To the surprise of exactly no one, this has failed to materialise.

What is so difficult about regulating these companies is that they have the economy of scale that allows them to provide cheaper goods to consumers. For example, breaking up Amazon simply means everyone paying a little more for goods and services, because one single company doesn’t have a stranglehold on competition.

Politicians don’t like doing that. It’s not a vote winner.
 

Topher

Gold Member
MS can't be too bold and flat out say fuck the CAT fuck the CMA fuck the UK we're closing today! The main reason as I outlined earlier is because there a cheaper better options to closing than this not to mention the CAT is siding with MS over the CMA and is trying to fast track the CAT hearing to be ASAP at MS' behest this bodes well for MS prospects. This means MS has to be very hush hush about it's closing regardless plans as they could be seen as disrespectful to the CATs noble efforts.

But the more time goes on the more closing without the CMA becomes a more realistic option. If MS was willing to abandon the acquisition they would have abandoned it when the CMA blocked like the majority of businesses do but this is a 70b acquisition the scale of which makes spending billions to get it through nowhere near as painful as with other acquisitions. But there's something even bigger than this acquisition on the line here and that's the precedent that the CMA alone can become the world police of mergers, this would threaten EVERY MS aquisition from now on so this needs to be dealt with now. You can imagine how costly it would be for MS should they allow this status quo to remain.

I generally agree with your post and think that MS will not go nuclear simply because they won't need to, there's too much stacked against the CMA currently but this acquisition cycle has been full of surprises.

There is nothing to indicate the CAT is "siding with MS over the CMA". There has only been a case management hearing. No idea where this "MS abandoning the acquisition" is coming from either. Never even implied it.

There really isn't much point discussing fiction my man.
 

dotnotbot

Member
Did he pull that percentage number out of his ass? Where did he get that from, fantasy land?
E-mails sent to CMA, he compares that data set to political polls, but those are made by carefully picking up respondents based on many factors, not respondents sending their answers by themselves.
 
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