MS Gaming up 4%; content down 3% (1%CC) and hardware up 13% (19% CC)

reksveks

Member
Source: https://view.officeapps.live.com/op...?version=00ec54ed-6971-fa1f-b680-85c3f9d48197




Slide 13

Business Highlights

  • · Office Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 7% (up 13% in constant currency) driven by Office 365 Commercial revenue growth of 11% (up 17% in constant currency)
    • · Windows OEM revenue decreased 15%
    • · Windows Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 8% (up 15% in constant currency)
    • · Xbox content and services revenue decreased 3% (up 1% in constant currency)
    • · Search and news advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 16% (up 21% in constant currency)
    • · Devices revenue increased 2% (up 8% in constant currency)
  • Microsoft returned $9.7 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023, a decrease of 11% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2022.

NPD US HW is up 15% so that's in line but EU and UK are down like 20% units..

Earnings call tidbits

- Pc gamepass up 159% yoy
- 20m xcloud usage; last reported 10m in May (fortnite probably doing numbers)
- 50% series s new to ecosystem
- increased hw unit and price (so more series x as a %)
- forecasting low to mid double digit decline in the next q
 
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Another great quarter. Game Pass is growing even without first party games and consoles are selling better than last year.

Can't wait for next year numbers when games like Starfield will drop
Going to be an awesome 2023 with Starfield dropping on PC and Xbox.

It's been a long wait and I'm hoping they show more gameplay in Dec or early next year to get the hype train going.
 

reksveks

Member
Nothing too interesting. It makes sense that subscriptions would be up if hardware is up, the more series s they sell the more subscribers they get.
the only thing interesting for me is the disconnect between these numbers and the numbers from the trackers and trying to figure out what that is
 

Elios83

Member
So so quarter gaming wise, declines in contents, engagement and microtransactions sales couldn't be offset by the unspecified growth in subscriptions.
The small hardware growth is a positive but it's compared to a period last year when availability was really poor and they were in the in process of shifting production towards Series S instead of X.
 

SlimySnake

The Contrarian
Their userbase shouldve doubled since last year and to see revenues stay flat is not good. Early gen spending is typically very high with an enthusiastic userbase buying everything to justify their new console purchase. It seems they are basically replacing their xbox one owners with xbox series owners with very little migration from Sony, Nintendo and casuals.

EDIT: Didnt Sony see something similar last quarter as well. They reported that software sales were down which I find inexplicable considering the number of consoles that are out in the wild. What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?
 
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AmuroChan

Member
We are in a recession.

And? I'm playing short term options. There's plenty of money to be made whether we're in a recession or not. My $ENPH call options are going to make bank tomorrow. My sold put on $MSFT is still ok unless it drops below $240. I was just hoping for positive movement after earnings to that I can close it out early. If I have to hold it until expiration, that's the risk I took.
 

reksveks

Member
Their userbase shouldve doubled since last year and to see revenues stay flat is not good. Early gen spending is typically very high with an enthusiastic userbase buying everything to justify their new console purchase. It seems they are basically replacing their xbox one owners with xbox series owners with very little migration from Sony, Nintendo and casuals.

EDIT: Didnt Sony see something similar last quarter as well. They reported that software sales were down which I find inexplicable considering the number of consoles that are out in the wild. What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?
Thread 'Sony FY22Q1 Results (2.4 million sold through)' https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-fy22q1-results-2-4-million-sold-through.1639616/

SW rev down 13%
- DLC rev down 10. 3%
- Digital Full Games rev down 11.15%
- Physical full games rev down 35.2%

Yeah, software revenue was down double digits in the previous quarter for Sony before fx impact.

Think people may need to look at numbers in context. There will be a disconnect between the earning reports and the trackers but they are still useful data points.


UK and EU are units not revenue.

Adding we are getting Sony's numbers on the 1st and Nintendo on the 8th
 
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GHG

Member
EDIT: Didnt Sony see something similar last quarter as well. They reported that software sales were down which I find inexplicable considering the number of consoles that are out in the wild. What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?

The expectations and habit of console gamers are changing. The expectation is that there's an "all you can eat" style subscription service available and secondary to that customers are happy to predominantly rely on it for content. Nintendo are the only outlier and are holding steadfast in the belief of their tried and tested successful business model for now.

Let's see where all this gets us in the long run.
 
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Ozriel

Member
Their userbase shouldve doubled since last year and to see revenues stay flat is not good. Early gen spending is typically very high with an enthusiastic userbase buying everything to justify their new console purchase. It seems they are basically replacing their xbox one owners with xbox series owners with very little migration from Sony, Nintendo and casuals.

EDIT: Didnt Sony see something similar last quarter as well. They reported that software sales were down which I find inexplicable considering the number of consoles that are out in the wild. What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?

Content sales is entirely dependent on content released.
Also, games are bigger than ever and many are on GaaS titles and/or subscription services. Attach rates aren’t guaranteed to be high

Their userbase shouldve doubled since last year

Nah. Their userbase also includes people on xbox one
 
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AJUMP23

Member
And? I'm playing short term options. There's plenty of money to be made whether we're in a recession or not. My $ENPH call options are going to make bank tomorrow. My sold put on $MSFT is still ok unless it drops below $240. I was just hoping for positive movement after earnings to that I can close it out early. If I have to hold it until expiration, that's the risk I took.
Plenty of money to make but don’t expect huge sales on mass consumer products when groceries are more expensive.
 

AmuroChan

Member
Plenty of money to make but don’t expect huge sales on mass consumer products when groceries are more expensive.

I wasn't expecting anything from the consumer product side. That's not what's going to move MS's stock price. I was banking on Azure to beat the 36.5% growth estimate and it fell just short. Net bookings and EPS were otherwise in line with expectations.
 

Jinzo Prime

Member
What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?

Yeah, I want to know the attach rate for these big, expensive first party games because traditionally, console makers make their money on software sales and break even on hardware.
 
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LordBlodgett

Gold Member

Microsoft predicting a bit of a bloodbath.
Yep, we are going to see B2B revenue cutting down all over the place. Smart companies are preparing for recession, and IT related investments will always be one of the first things to be put on hold or get cut. This shouldn't affect Azure as much though, since cloud has become cheaper in the short term than investing in your own servers. I'm holding my Microsoft stock, and I expect it to hold up better when compared to the overall market, but we are going to continue seeing overall market drop for a while
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Looking at the slide, it looks like currency fx killed financials. Not too often you see currency negatively affect data 4-6%.
 

M1chl

Currently Gif and Meme Champion
Their userbase shouldve doubled since last year and to see revenues stay flat is not good. Early gen spending is typically very high with an enthusiastic userbase buying everything to justify their new console purchase. It seems they are basically replacing their xbox one owners with xbox series owners with very little migration from Sony, Nintendo and casuals.

EDIT: Didnt Sony see something similar last quarter as well. They reported that software sales were down which I find inexplicable considering the number of consoles that are out in the wild. What are these people buying consoles for if they arent willing to buy games for them?


Pic related, but you can switch PS for Xbox or RTX3XXX series.
 
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GHG

Member
And? I'm playing short term options. There's plenty of money to be made whether we're in a recession or not. My $ENPH call options are going to make bank tomorrow. My sold put on $MSFT is still ok unless it drops below $240. I was just hoping for positive movement after earnings to that I can close it out early. If I have to hold it until expiration, that's the risk I took.

This has not aged well.

With regards to earnings, if you are playing short term options with elevated IV then you are gambling. Hope you used spreads and/or you're happy to be assigned.
 
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