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My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some
- Thread starter MikeB
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jarrod said:
September 2007 through the end of March 2008.
The usage of easy PC-like tools IMO does not really ignite technology R&D. Huge potential gains which can only be gotten from R&D does drive game technology progress. Expect leading companies with lots of development talent like Crytek and Insomniac to do much R&D to get the most out of the PS3 architecture, companies which settle for as easy as possible development may well just settle with 3rd party game technology, like the Unreal engine requiring not much technology knowledge just like if you would create your own UT3 or LittleBigPlanet levels does not really require you to understand the hardware underneath the hood.
LCGeek said:
Dude, it´s MikeB You may remember him from such threads as:
My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some (Mod edited)
HABBO LULZTEL teens survey puts PS3 on top, girls and kids prefer the Wii (Mod edited)
True reasons why the 360 fails? (Inside Source) (locked)
Extreme Tech: 360 DVD, HD DVD playback still seriously flawed
PS3 vs XBox 360 - A mainly technical comparison (locked)
Asian Xbox 360 manufacturers: Why The Xbox 360 Failed
So do you really expect something normal from a guy who post graphs like this?
So... about a month after PS3 launch.MikeB said:
It comes down to familiarity, which is why 360 has an inherent appeal over PS3 for Korean developers.MikeB said:
What fundamentally ignites technology R&D is market potential, but first party investment certainly helps kickstart the process. Microsoft (and even Nintendo shockingly) seem to have been going a little more out of their way to woo Korean game makers directly too though.
@ itxaka
Most those topics have also been widely reported on leading websites, they have IMO all been discussion worthy. Sadly there are quite a few overprotective and upset 360 fans on this forum, including some mods. So indepth discussion is really hard around here.
But the facts remain the same, and rereading those threads a few years from now would be interesting. IMO a bit like if we reread transcripts from the middle ages on the position of the earth being flat.
Most those topics have also been widely reported on leading websites, they have IMO all been discussion worthy. Sadly there are quite a few overprotective and upset 360 fans on this forum, including some mods. So indepth discussion is really hard around here.
But the facts remain the same, and rereading those threads a few years from now would be interesting. IMO a bit like if we reread transcripts from the middle ages on the position of the earth being flat.
MikeB said:
Why, they aren't the ones making the thread to skew a certain type of argument. I've gone after them enough for their BS about HD gen, yet you started this. You can skew and they skew this whole HD crap anyway you want but that doesn't change the reality HD has been done on console before this gen and HD or higher resolution has been present in gaming largely since nes era has show clear increases. Add in pc and arcade machines with the type displays they use and I wonder what's the point of these arguments outside to demonstrate a lack of pespective that resolution has always had mostly from generation to generation.
MikeB said:
Dude, I like you for your Amiga love, but you are biased towards the ps3 and everybody knows it. Sometimes you post nice and useful things like the SPE use thread but sometimes you post crazy things all in favour of the ps3 and dismissing the 360 and you blame on 360 fanboy mods?
come on, just look at the cnet graph, do you really that is possible?
jarrod said:
About 2 months and 2 weeks. Having a supply of about 5K I wouldn't really call a proper launch, but the PS3 has been launched in extreme low quatities in some countries like Taiwan as well.
Agreed, but also the extend of the potential gains (many hardcore talented programmers were part of the demoscene, mainly just for fun and enjoyment to push a system's limits, using untapped potential.
But optimizing the hell out of the Wii still wouldn't result in superior game engines than what can be much more easily achieved on the HD consoles. I think almost everyone agrees the PS3 is going to outsell the 360, there's just disagreement with regard to how significant this difference will turn out to be in the coming years. So there's not only more technology potential with regard to the PS3, but more market potential as well.
http://www.style.org/unladenswallow/beat said:
itxaka said:
Absolutely, there are enough arguments to be made in support of such market developments. I am not saying it will entirely play out like this, but the general trend seems likely to me. I think it's likely the 360 will not hit a 40 million install base, but there are many unknown factors and Microsoft does have the resources to pull things more into their favour. They make enough money from their desktop OS monopoly to even hand out 360 units for free. ;-)
MikeB said:
Like? I mean, 105million predicted while is tracking behind the gamecube? That pretty crazy if you ask me. The wii is breaking all records everywhere and they expect it to sell less?
I hope you don´t start with the "wait for _____" meme.
That It´s some crazy shit rigth there.
Man, seriously. I like games running on all three consoles, I'd wish all of the hardware manufacturers the best luck and to reach over 100M eachMikeB said:
Dreamcast 2 included
Most buyers only buy ONE console. The gamers buying two or three are an absolute minority, so for this to happen you have to convince a lot of people to buy a games console.
And, to trigger such a thing, you need an hot product everyone will want (and, sadly, I can't see anything in sight that could do the job).
itxaka said:
The PS3 is more expensive than the GameCube was back then and it's not tracking behind the GameCube at all. That system only sold about 20 million worldwide, the PS3 is tracking to go beyond this for the upcoming holiday season.
The PS3 is technolgy-wise ahead for its time, it's based on cutting edge technology like the Cell processor and Blu-Ray technology. It's however reflected on the hardware costs, selling at a Wii-level and having the profitable PS2 be discontinued would have been a serious problem for Sony from a financial perspective. They don't want that.
The primary aims seems to have been:
1) Reduce the 360's headstart advantage. It does this pretty well.
2) Win the Blu-Ray movie format war (accomplished).
3) Provide people more reason to upgrade towards a high definition TV.
Some believe the PS3 launch should have been delayed for 2 years or something. But IMO it wouldn't have been beneficial at all.
IMO it would also have resulted into:
- Delayed mass production of cutting edge technology, also resulting in cost reductions taking longer to achieve.
- Delay with regard to developers learning the way of the Cell, delayed adaptation of legacy game engines. The same problems some devs are experiencing now, only two years later.
Jocchan said:
Sure there are, we have new emerging markets and new people, especially females becoming far more interested in gaming.
For a decade? The PS3 will be cheap eventually. People usually don't buy two TV sets per year, but buyning 2 TV sets within 10 years timespan isn't that unlikely. The Nintendo Wii and PS3 don't have much technology nor games overlap.
itxaka said:
1) New most impressive exclusive games and most good non-exclusive games also on PS3.
2) Pricecuts and slimline (smaller and more efficient) PS3.
3) Increasing adoption of HDTV and Blu-Ray technology.
4) New or improved features and functionality (Home, PlayTV, online downloads, maybe PS2 software emulator, etc)
Good.
It has helped tremendously, without the PS3 the costly format war may have continued for a long time. Blu-Ray adoption is now happening faster than was the case for DVD, and DVD was the fastest adopted consumer electronics technology ever, significantly beating the adoption of VHS video.
HDTV sales are actually very healthy. Not everyone can afford a HDTV yet, but pricing will come down further like they have already.
Yes, the industry is getting bigger, but it isn't because neither of the PS3 nor of the 360. People who weren't interested in gaming aren't going to buy an HD console because of its horsepower: they would if there were games appealing to them, and if those games became so popular to reach a critical mass of buyers triggering a chain reaction of "me too"s.MikeB said:
And I can't see anything on the horizon suggesting this. I'd like to be proven wrong, but when the majority vast of games is geared towards us hardcore gamers you can't expect other people to become magically interested in stuff they didn't care for before. So, there's no reason to believe in such an expansion for the market.
You're overestimating the consumer whores inside us. HDTVs and BluRay sets will certainly replace current TVs and DVDs, but if consumers aren't compelled to upgrade you can't expect this to happen so quickly.MikeB said:
We live in a world where most people hook stuff (consoles included) to their HDTVs with composite cables, getting LOW RES signals, because they can't tell the difference (and if you asked them, they'd answer they're happy for the increased definition they see now... even if their flat LCD or plasma panel doesn't support HD resolutions, because for most people flat screen = HDTV). People simply don't have any knowledge of this stuff: tech stuff is moon language to them.
About the "10-year plan", don't believe marketing bullcrap: I'd be very surprised if the PS4 didn't come before 2016. The PS2 is getting close to a 10-year lifespan, just like the PS1 did, but it got replaced way before reaching that goal and so will the PS3. If Sony took their time for replacing the PS2 is just because it was the most successful console of all time. Biggest installed base, overwhelming variety of games whose diversity appeals everyone (see what I did here?): PS2 was THE console you HAD to own last gen.
This time, things look different, and if Sony really wants to get back to their dominant position they have to RENEW the Playstation brand.
If you think they can do with a relatively old product (meaning one that has been on the shelves for some time), to reach and even surpass a machine that's breaking every record since launch, then good for you... but I believe the only way they can do so is by launching a new machine with a new philosophy, and try to make it the hottest thing ever made for a market a bit bigger than hardcoregamerz and tech enthusiasts.
Cool Hand Luke
Banned
The 360 has enough marketshare to get third party games. Very few are exclusive to either platform this gen. Add in the fact that the 360 is a bit cheaper, already has a lead and perform on the same level graphically, and it's nearly impossible for PS3 to pull away as much as you're predicting. (although I think they will come in second)
The consoles get the same games. That won't change if Sony don't decide to pay every single developer for exclusives. What on earth will make the PS3 selling like no console ever sold before?
Also the market needs to double for that to happen. People can pretend that the wii isn't competition but the sales speak for themselves. Sony have a milkshake, and Nintendo have a milkshake, and Nintendo have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And Nintendo straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink Sony's milkshake... They... drink... their... milkshake!
The consoles get the same games. That won't change if Sony don't decide to pay every single developer for exclusives. What on earth will make the PS3 selling like no console ever sold before?
Also the market needs to double for that to happen. People can pretend that the wii isn't competition but the sales speak for themselves. Sony have a milkshake, and Nintendo have a milkshake, and Nintendo have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And Nintendo straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink Sony's milkshake... They... drink... their... milkshake!
Jocchan said:
I agree with you with regard to the 360 in general, although also this platform may attract some former PC-only gamers because of console exclusives and less fuss in general with regard to virus/trojan/spyware/etc and compatibility issues (if not for the 360's hardware issues) and new technology such as being able to play effortlessly in high resolution on new HDTVs. Even Crytek won't release PC exclusives anymore.
The PS3 however has Blu-Ray movie playback functionality (which a new 360 may also get eventually). This will and probably has triggered some new type of customers, people who are more interested in entertainment in general beyond just gaming.
I think you are overestimating timeframes. Like some are claiming Blu-Ray adoption is slow, while in fact it's happening faster than it did for DVD, let alone VHS video.
Sure I believe a PS4 will be released before this, but the PS3 will likely be cheaper. Just like cheap PCs may well outsell top end PCs.
itxaka said:Dude, it´s MikeB You may remember him from such threads as:
My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some (Mod edited)
HABBO LULZTEL teens survey puts PS3 on top, girls and kids prefer the Wii (Mod edited)
True reasons why the 360 fails? (Inside Source) (locked)
Extreme Tech: 360 DVD, HD DVD playback still seriously flawed
PS3 vs XBox 360 - A mainly technical comparison (locked)
Asian Xbox 360 manufacturers: Why The Xbox 360 Failed
So do you really expect something normal from a guy who post graphs like this?
MikeB is indeed a crazy nut.. I doubt even the most extreme fans of "his system of choice" take him seriously. I quite enjoy that he continuously stirs things up with crazy-stuff but at the same time manages to keep a straight face. And then add to the fact that he's not your average twelve-year-old fanboy but an actual older gamer (that should know better than continuously plot system-wars among the younger kids)... Disturbing but hilarious.
1. Some of those games have yet to prove themselves, remember HAZE and LAIR, maybe Heavenly Sword? Also we've seen the Xbox and PS3 line-up, but there's a third competitor who has alot more resources for game development than both MS and Sony.MikeB said:
2. Pricecut won't happen anytime soon and I think it'll be another year before we see a slimline
3. Well increasing adoption of HDTV and Blu-Ray isn't going to do Sony any favors. If Blu-Ray reaches mass market then there will be more and (cheaper)Blu-Ray players.
4. Home has been delayed countless of times, the others don't seem as big.
The last NPD showed that the Xbox 360 and PS3 are in a bad situation, GTAIV is without a doubt the biggest game they had this year. The only thing that stands between Nintendo and world domination are the third parties who refuse to give the system some decent games.
itxaka said:
From a long term perspective, if HD DVD would have become a viable established standard existing next to Blu-Ray it would IMO have introduced far greater problems for the PS3. So an early victory is not only beneficial to the movie format but also the games format.
Blu-Ray movie playback is IMO a long term PS3 benefit. For games development Blu-Ray disc can also be very beneficial for the long run (far more storage space, constant streaming speed accross the disc and scratch resistance).
Green Shinobi
Banned
But you're suggesting that sales of the 360 will slow down to about 5 million units per year while the PS3 will be pushing 20 million units a year. This is according to your graph.MikeB said:
The PS3 might have outsold the 360 worldwide for 3 months out of the last 15 (or something like that), and you're suggesting that it's going to do quadruple the 360's sales starting next year?
This is a joke.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
i love the way the Wii tops out in the graph too.
Basically the graphs point to :
ps3 : Initial poor performance = guaranteed success
X360 : good sales and excellent software sales = collossal failure
Wii : People will get bored, it'lll get caught by PS3 in the end.
It's amazing, it's the same fanboy argument from 2006/2007 and now we have it again in 2008. Odds on the same logic wheeled out with slightly different numbers in 2009? 6-4 on.
itxaka said:
Yes and I applaud competition. However the PS3 will also be affordable for anyone who can afford a new HDTV and comes with more features and functionality than standalone Blu-Ray players.
I am not saying everyone who will watch Blu-Ray movies will do so on a PS3, however the PS3 will remain a compelling product for many people interesting in watching Blu-Ray movies. The PS2 wasn't the cheapest DVD player neither, but it's DVD movie playback features was certainly a big plus.
DCharlie said:
Sure they can, however those owning a HDTV at this point are still a minority of the market.
The Japanese prefer cute compact devices (small houses, small people), the current PS3 is slick but pretty bulky actually, especially for Japanese standards.
The games which are of the most interest to the Japanese market haven't been released yet. There's a lack of top quality JRPGs at this point on the PS3 platform. The biggest games so far like Resistance: Fall of Man, Call of Duty 4 and Motorstorm are western orientated games.
The problem is that Sony can't drop the price of PS3 because of the production costs. Cell and RSX aren't cheap not to mention HDD and other functionalities. The PS3 will be $299,99 slimline and all that but the standalone Blu-Ray player will be $199,99 or less and if the Chinese decide to flood the market with cheap players....MikeB said:
The PS2 didn't have DVD as the biggest selling point though, they had the games. Whatever Nintendo or Microsoft had, they would level them with hundreds of titles which would offer the same experience. In the end it was the software support that made the PS2 succesfull.
[Nintex] said:
100 dollars extra for much additional functionality, including the ability to play the most impressive high budget games doesn't sound like a bad market position to me. Even for non-hardcore gamers, they may want to do some karaoke with Singstar, watch and discuss the latest movie trailers within Playstation home or use the PS3 as a DVR to record or download movie or TV content.
The options and potentials are much wider for a device like the PS3, so for quite a few people the extra costs may well be worth it by the time Blu-Ray really takes over the mass market.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
so with dq and monster hunter now heading to Nintendo platforms, what next for PS3 ?
FF13... ?
jesus - it's like i am back in 2006. Did the last 2 years not happen or something?
and with the wii at $99 way before everyone else, everyone will ignore it - just like in your graph huh? despite it touching close to 800k in the US alone at $250
DCharlie said:
No development is far too much ahead. Capcom may not have had high aims for their upcoming Monster Hunter game and may well be better suited for PS2/Wii level technology. It would make sense if they are also making a PS2 version behind the scenes, as most of the Monster Hunter fanbase already own this system (I guess only a few own only a PSP).
What do you mean? I anticipated great Wii sales before the Wii launched (although it even surprises me Nintendo still can't meet demand). I also thought the 360 would sell faster than the original XBox did, this due to XBox sequels being pumped out closer after each other. However it sells about 20% faster, not that impressive if you consider the decline of the PC gaming market and more people becoming interested in games consoles in general.
AugustDivision
Banned
I guess the craziest part about this thread is that MikeB appears to genuinely believe this is unbiased analysis.
facepalm.gif
facepalm.gif
Green Shinobi
Banned
MikeB, you should really give Gaming a break and come post some more in the Off Topic side, you know. Clear your head.
AugustDivision
Banned
His logic would work swimmingly there.Green Shinobi said:
The Innocent X
Banned
I see your ridiculous arguments and I raise you four sentences
The PS3 sold 180K in the month GTA came out in the US. It has no traction
The PS3 is doing OK in europe.
The PS3 is selling 10-20K a week in Japan, outside of major game releases.
Sony has said they will not cut the price to improve install base this year
Your figures just don't add up.
The PS3 sold 180K in the month GTA came out in the US. It has no traction
The PS3 is doing OK in europe.
The PS3 is selling 10-20K a week in Japan, outside of major game releases.
Sony has said they will not cut the price to improve install base this year
Your figures just don't add up.
The Innocent X
Banned
MikeB said:
Your figures show that PS3 is maybe catching up at 100K a month WW (and thats being very generous). That's five years to reduce the gap.
And that doesn't take into account that 360 is sitting on a price drop in it best territory.
The Innocent X
Banned
DCharlie said:
I was trying to be generous with my figures.
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