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Next-Gen NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 With Top AD102 GPU Could Be The First Gaming Graphics Card To Break Past 100 TFLOPs

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Because people are greedy. If economic experts are correct and current events will indeed lead to huge economic crisis, then we will see shortages of everything, including semiconductors of course, and when Nv and AMD will have troubles making their new GPUs then people will be forced to buy old GPUs and I'm sure Ampere GPU owners will absolutely try to exploit this situation. I hope experts are wrong with their predictions, but only time can tell who was correct.
Im trying to understand this properly.

Currently Nvidia have shipped out a shit ton of RTX30s the whole backorder has basically been solved, stock in high supply pretty much everywhere.

Ada was rumored to be coming out some time in July....obvious AIBs were like fuck that shit we have warehouses of RTX30s NV give us some time to actually sell these things before we have to start selling RTX40s at pretty much the same price and cannibalizing ourselves.

Now demand for RTX30s has dwindled
1. because crypto has crashed
2. because people are going back to work
3. because those who were desperate already have their GPUs.

So when the RTX40s show up there will still be a ton of stock of RTX30s.....why would someone buy an RTX30 at MSRP when they can get an RTX40 at MSRP?
Unless you are assuming Nvidia have fucked up again and RTX40s will also be in very very limited supply and for reasons I cant fathom from your posts the demand for RTX40s will be sky high like with RTX30s and some sort of second resurgence of I really need a GPU happens so RTX30s get back in high demand.

What reason do you think RTX40s will be in short supply, and why do you think people will have demand for GPUs?


You are almost counterpointing your own points.
If there an economic crisis GPU demand will plummet as its seen as a luxury item.
Nvidia and AMDs order of the coming generation should be much higher than the RTX30s due to the die shrink......and even if they made the same mistake and have low supply.....where is the demand going to come from considering again we will be in an economic downturn and crypto is in the shits?
 
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So when the RTX40s show up there will still be a ton of stock of RTX30s.....why would someone buy an RTX30 at MSRP when they can get an RTX40 at MSRP?
Maybe initially 40xx series will be available at MSRP (like 30xx was), but huge economic crisis and potential world war can quickly change everything. Just yesterday Russia officials have announced they are transitioning from "special operation" in Ukraine to taking aim at all NATO, because many countries supplied weapons to fight with Russians, so now they want to strike back. Time will show if their threats are serious, but the future is uncertain, so if I were planning to replace my GPU soon, I would do it now, rather than wait for 40xx series, but that's just me.
 
Nvidia revenue from the US is like 10% its not anywhere near being the most important region for Nvidia.

From nVidia's own financial statement it was 23%. I don't know what that entails.

China and Taiwan was 58% but that must include them selling chips (and maybe the memory) to AIBs and OEMs who then make products out of it and sell worldwide.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Maybe initially 40xx series will be available at MSRP (like 30xx was), but huge economic crisis and potential world war can quickly change everything. Just yesterday Russia officials have announced they are transitioning from "special operation" in Ukraine to taking aim at all NATO, because many countries supplied weapons to fight with Russians, so now they want to strike back. Time will show if their threats are serious, but the future is uncertain, so if I were planning to replace my GPU soon, I would do it now, rather than wait for 40xx series, but that's just me.
We are going round in circles.
And I still dont understand what you are trying to say.
Your Russian World War tangent is also really confusing....maybe i didnt get enough sleep last night.
Or maybe its just my logic is different to yours.


If you believe RTX30s will hold their value while the RTX40s are out good on you.
My logic dictates no one is going to buy an RTX30 when its replacement is on the shelves for the same price.
Suppliers have the RTX30 stock and they need to get rid of it before the RTX40s....the only way they can considering demand is low, is to entice people with low prices. Even when the RTX40s come out they could probably eek more RTX30 sales by simply making the RTX30s much cheaper.
Thus a GPU price crash where RTX30s are suddenly well below MSRP.

An economic crisis wouldnt increase the demand for a luxury item like a GPU it would decrease the demand for it.
Having excess stock in warehouses and on the shelves isnt going to drive up prices its going to do the exact opposite.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Because people are greedy. If economic experts are correct and current events will indeed lead to huge economic crisis, then we will see shortages of everything, including semiconductors of course, and when Nv and AMD will have troubles making their new GPUs then people will be forced to buy old GPUs and I'm sure Ampere GPU owners will absolutely try to exploit this situation. I hope experts are wrong with their predictions, but only time can tell who was correct.
Still think Ampere is going to hold its value?

When Ada is on the shelves the price crash will be glorious.

 

CrustyBritches

Gold Member
The demand and pricing for Ampere was driven by crypto mining. If ethereum completely crashes the market is going to be flooded with used mining cards, which will devalue older cards like Turing, Pascal, Vega, and Polaris. It will possibly even affect the ability of board partners like EVGA to sell their new cards at msrp. Demand has dropped big time.

Look at EVGA where you formerly had to be in a queue for 10-12 months to get a card:
3060 in-stock, 3070 in-stock on sale $30 off, 3070 Ti in-stock on sale $70 off, 3080 in-stock on sale $50 off, 3080 Ti in-stock on sale $180 off, 3090 in-stock $220 off, 3090 Ti in-stock $200 off.

The other day I was watching some new cards on Ebay being sold by scalpers at auction:
-New EVGA 3070 XC3 Ultra sold for $591. Was going for $630-$660 on EVGA's website at the time.
-New EVGA 3080 Ti FTW3 Ultra Hybrid sold for $1,129. Was going for $1,249-$1,479 on EVGA's website at the time.
-New EVGA 3060 XC 12GB sold for $360. Was going for $399-$429 on EVGA's website at the time.

At $0.10/kWh, profit per day is like $0.59 for a 3070 and $0.88 for a 3080. ROI for a new card right now would be like 900 days.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
The demand and pricing for Ampere was driven by crypto mining. If ethereum completely crashes the market is going to be flooded with used mining cards, which will devalue older cards like Turing, Pascal, Vega, and Polaris. It will possibly even affect the ability of board partners like EVGA to sell their new cards at msrp. Demand has dropped big time.

Look at EVGA where you formerly had to be in a queue for 10-12 months to get a card:
3060 in-stock, 3070 in-stock on sale $30 off, 3070 Ti in-stock on sale $70 off, 3080 in-stock on sale $50 off, 3080 Ti in-stock on sale $180 off, 3090 in-stock $220 off, 3090 Ti in-stock $200 off.

The other day I was watching some new cards on Ebay being sold by scalpers at auction:
-New EVGA 3070 XC3 Ultra sold for $591. Was going for $630-$660 on EVGA's website at the time.
-New EVGA 3080 Ti FTW3 Ultra Hybrid sold for $1,129. Was going for $1,249-$1,479 on EVGA's website at the time.
-New EVGA 3060 XC 12GB sold for $360. Was going for $399-$429 on EVGA's website at the time.

At $0.10/kWh, profit per day is like $0.59 for a 3070 and $0.88 for a 3080. ROI for a new card right now would be like 900 days.

All of this pleases me.
It pleases me greatly.
 

Dream-Knife

Member
I don't get why people are acting like electronics are an investment. They always go down in value as tech always moves forwards. Off the top of my head, the only hobbies I know where the items increase in value is guitars and firearms.
 

FStubbs

Member
I don't get why people are acting like electronics are an investment. They always go down in value as tech always moves forwards. Off the top of my head, the only hobbies I know where the items increase in value is guitars and firearms.
Physical copies of games can increase in value.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
The calm before the storm. Now it's the best time to buy GPUs.
The best time to buy a new GPU is when its replacements are coming out and are going to be priced similarly?

Hahahaha mate you are hoot of illogicality.


When Ada drops in August RTX30s are going to be pocket change.
We only just reached below MSRP.
When thats well below MSRP maybe people can start considering buy RTX30s.
Right now Ada is way to close to pay MSRP for an outdated piece of tech.

Much like elections, people have 4 year crypto amnesia. It will crash hard. I am expecting 3080's for $200.
Get your mans above.
He keeps harping on about how RTX30s are going to go up in price and be back at 200% MSRP even when Ada drops.
Theyve literally had to push Adas release date back twice now because they have so much stock they dont even know how to move it.
RTX30s will have one of the hardest quickest price drops in recent memory.

 
We are entering a recession. Meme coins will be the last thing on people's minds. Bitcoin will always exist but it will go back to being an underground black market currency.

I hope that PC gaming can go back to normal!
 
The best time to buy a new GPU is when its replacements are coming out and are going to be priced similarly?

Hahahaha mate you are hoot of illogicality.


When Ada drops in August RTX30s are going to be pocket change.
We only just reached below MSRP.
When thats well below MSRP maybe people can start considering buy RTX30s.
Right now Ada is way to close to pay MSRP for an outdated piece of tech.


Get your mans above.
He keeps harping on about how RTX30s are going to go up in price and be back at 200% MSRP even when Ada drops.
Theyve literally had to push Adas release date back twice now because they have so much stock they dont even know how to move it.
RTX30s will have one of the hardest quickest price drops in recent memory.

I'm expecting hardware prices (not just GPUs) will go up because of inevitable economic collapse (and there's also possible WW3 on the horizon) but I werent predicting any particular price point for obvious reasons. Show me where I wrote ampere GPUs will be back to 200% over MSRP.
 
I'm expecting hardware prices (not just GPUs) will go up because of inevitable economic collapse (and there's also possible WW3 on the horizon) but I werent predicting any particular price point for obvious reasons. Show me where I wrote ampere GPUs will be back to 200% over MSRP.

There's no indication for rising hardware prices, especially not on GPUs.
Production has been ramping up everywhere for the past 2.5 years, new manufacturing and assembly plants are still being built today despite supply meeting demand. In the specific case of PC GPUs we've had miners continuously hoarding most mid/high/top-end graphics cards whose mining performance is only now becoming unprofitable, meaning they'll now flood the 2nd-hand market.

Inflation is going up for basic needs products like food, construction materials and commodities because the stock for those is decreasing. The world stock for gaming graphics cards isn't going down, on the contrary.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
I'm expecting hardware prices (not just GPUs) will go up because of inevitable economic collapse (and there's also possible WW3 on the horizon) but I werent predicting any particular price point for obvious reasons. Show me where I wrote ampere GPUs will be back to 200% over MSRP.
Thats not how anything works.

Just out of curiosity have you finished highschool?
If in college/university take Econ 101 or whatever the first level of Economics is in your college.
If youve dont both maybe google can help you out.

Cuz your understanding of what is going on seems to be quite a bit off.
This worldwide economic collapse you seem to be predicting is some doomsday preppers shit.
And further it isnt going to make luxury items increase in price.
In "free" economies the market always decides the price, demand/supply.
GPUs arent going to be in high demand so their prices will drop.
We are witnessing this concept at work basically in realtime with GPUs, as crypto crashed and everyone who wanted a GPU either already has one or is waiting for Ada, demand has dropped, supply has climbed and the prices have dropped.

This is an economic theory so old im legit shook you are arguing against it?


P.S When we started this conversation prices were around 130% MSRP, you were/are expecting the prices to go up, so logically its would be a number above 130% MSRP no?
The 200% number was just an arbitrary representation of that number.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
HAHAHA ON THE SHELVES 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Crying laughing because Ada will never hit the shelves?

Crypto crash + LHR4 + New Drivers.....stock wont be anywhere near as constrained as Ampere.
You can bookmark this post.
 
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winjer

Member
nVidia made a killing during these last 2 years, thanks to miners buying all the GPUs at absurd prices.
But now this is over, and nVidia's stock price as fallen 50% within a few months. Not that nVidia is going bankrupt, just that the market is back to normal levels.
This makes me wonder what is Jensen's plan. Is he going to double down on a price increase to try to keep margins high. Or he is going to price GPUs, similar to Turing and Ampere at the start, to sell more units.
 

Sanepar

Member
Not even that.
More like 20-25 tflops.

GTX 1080 to RTX 2080 went from 8.8 to 10 tflops
RTX 2080 to RTX 3080 went from 10 to 30 tflops.

Tho they went with a bigger die for the 3080 compared to 1080 and 2080.


Before the RTX, AMD was the inflated FLOPS per performance company. That completely reversed.
No man. A 3080ti more than double ps5 e xsx perf.
 

Reallink

Member
Thats not how anything works.

Just out of curiosity have you finished highschool?
If in college/university take Econ 101 or whatever the first level of Economics is in your college.
If youve dont both maybe google can help you out.

Cuz your understanding of what is going on seems to be quite a bit off.
This worldwide economic collapse you seem to be predicting is some doomsday preppers shit.
And further it isnt going to make luxury items increase in price.
In "free" economies the market always decides the price, demand/supply.
GPUs arent going to be in high demand so their prices will drop.
We are witnessing this concept at work basically in realtime with GPUs, as crypto crashed and everyone who wanted a GPU either already has one or is waiting for Ada, demand has dropped, supply has climbed and the prices have dropped.

This is an economic theory so old im legit shook you are arguing against it?


P.S When we started this conversation prices were around 130% MSRP, you were/are expecting the prices to go up, so logically its would be a number above 130% MSRP no?
The 200% number was just an arbitrary representation of that number.

Will depend on how many 3XXX's have gone to miners and how many will fire sell them off. If it's inconsequential Nvidia won't have to compete with a second hand market in any meaningful way, but if there's an endless supply of $300 3080's and $500 3090's they're in trouble. If the 4XXX's again prove to be an generational leap over AMD's offerings (strong possibility based on leaked performance targets), they'll enjoy another effective monopoly in the high end space. As such, they'll have total control of the "supply". Depending on the nature of their contract with TSMC, they'll probably come out ahead cutting production low enough to maintain ridiculous price premiums rather than produce millions of cards they have to sell and warranty at bargain bin prices. This is of course the same reason you don't (and won't) see $1200 77" OLED's, $400 iPhone 14 Pro's, or $30,000 luxury cars in an extreme economic recession, it's much cheaper to shut down factories and lay people off than churn out product you have to sell at discounts. I expect they'll still try to price them ridiculously for at least the first couple quarters of availability, then correct once the early adopters are milked. In other words, a repeat of the 2XXX generation.
 
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Not even that.
More like 20-25 tflops.

GTX 1080 to RTX 2080 went from 8.8 to 10 tflops
RTX 2080 to RTX 3080 went from 10 to 30 tflops.

Tho they went with a bigger die for the 3080 compared to 1080 and 2080.


Before the RTX, AMD was the inflated FLOPS per performance company. That completely reversed.
TFLOP's on Ampere GPUs was misleading. They build much more cores but weaker cores. RTX 3090 has 40TF with 2GHz OC, yet it's only 2x faster than 11TF 1080ti (or 2x faster compared to current gen consoles).
 
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nani17

Gold Member
Still think Ampere is going to hold its value?

When Ada is on the shelves the price crash will be glorious.

These cards might have been used for mining I wouldn't touch any of them, to be honest. After the crypto crash, I expect tons of cards will appear online.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
These cards might have been used for mining I wouldn't touch any of them, to be honest. After the crypto crash, I expect tons of cards will appear online.
Mining isnt anymore detrimental to a GPU than gaming on it.
If anything mining is less stressful because generally the GPU gets to steady state and just chills there, gaming has temps and loads changing constantly.
 

hlm666

Member
TFLOP's on Ampere GPUs was misleading. They build much more cores but weaker cores. RTX 3090 has 40TF with 2GHz OC, yet it's only 2x faster than 11TF 1080ti (or 2x faster compared to current gen consoles).
It's because they shared 1/2 the fp32 ops with the int ones, so if your program uses just fp32 only your going to get closer to the theoretical max. Games still use int operations and when they do they are at the cost of fp32. If Ada goes back to a none shared design the jump over ampere could be substantial from that alone.
 

winjer

Member

A truth. The power limits:
AD102, 800W;
AD103 (DT), 450W,
AD103 (Mobile), 175W;
AD104 (DT), 400W,
AD104 (Mobile), 175W;
AD106 (DT), 260W,
AD106 (Mobile), 140W.
But I don't think we need to use the full power cap.

These are just the power limits, but still, it's very high....

Heat Wave Summer GIF by Mario + Rabbids
 
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Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
While I know Nvidia's Tflops : Performance ratio changed to be more floppy than previous with Ampere, dang that seems like a crazy fast turnaround to near 10x current consoles, doesn't it?

It's possible this architecture again brings up the Tflops per actual performance ratio though

No, it’s not - you’re just being fooled by absurdly power hungry cards. For a long time the standard power supply was in the 500-750 range, and now you are looking at gpus that need that much just for themselves.

The X090 series should not exist.
 

Sanepar

Member
TFLOP's on Ampere GPUs was misleading. They build much more cores but weaker cores. RTX 3090 has 40TF with 2GHz OC, yet it's only 2x faster than 11TF 1080ti (or 2x faster compared to current gen consoles).
Yeah but probably a 4090 will be 4x these consoles since it will double perf. 4080 will sit around 3x. What is enougj even considering possible pro models.
 

Dream-Knife

Member
Not even that.
More like 20-25 tflops.

GTX 1080 to RTX 2080 went from 8.8 to 10 tflops
RTX 2080 to RTX 3080 went from 10 to 30 tflops.

Tho they went with a bigger die for the 3080 compared to 1080 and 2080.


Before the RTX, AMD was the inflated FLOPS per performance company. That completely reversed.
It's not inflated, the cores share int32 and fp32 operations.

The X090 series should not exist.
It's brilliant. The people who wouldn't buy a titan before will now buy one because it has a bigger number.
What is the point in me paying for a new GPU which can't even run the latest, most demanding games at max settings without any problems?
4k 144fps with RTX is a bit absurd for the tech we have now, then factor in games get more and more complex, and optimization is bad. The higher end 40 series MIGHT be suitable for 4k. Currently there isn't really a good 4k card on the market. Depends on what you play I guess.
 

Rbk_3

Member
nVidia made a killing during these last 2 years, thanks to miners buying all the GPUs at absurd prices.
But now this is over, and nVidia's stock price as fallen 50% within a few months. Not that nVidia is going bankrupt, just that the market is back to normal levels.
This makes me wonder what is Jensen's plan. Is he going to double down on a price increase to try to keep margins high. Or he is going to price GPUs, similar to Turing and Ampere at the start, to sell more units.

Mining didn't take off until early 2021. ETH was at $350 when the 3080 launched so that wasn't a consideration for pricing at the time. There were plenty of Turning cards on the shelf below MSRP and people were selling their old cards way under MSRP. We will see similar MSRP prices as this gen I think and it is going to be tough to get again in the launch window.

There are a lot of gamers that are holding out because by the time they were able to get a GPU at MSRP, the next generation was right around the corner. These people refused to give in to the price gouging and now by waiting a few more months, their money is going to go even further.
 
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rnlval

Member
Upcoming Flagship AMD, Intel, NVIDIA GPU Specs (Preliminary)
GPU NameAD102Navi 31Xe2-HPG
CodenameAda LovelaceRDNA 3Battlemage
Flagship SKUGeForce RTX 4090 SeriesRadeon RX 7900 SeriesArc B900 Series
GPU ProcessTSMC 4NTSMC 5nm+ TSMC 6nmTSCM 5nm?
GPU PackageMonolithicMCD (Multi-Chiplet Die)MCM (Multi-Chiplet Module)
GPU DiesMono x 12 x GCD + 4 x MCD + 1 x IODQuad-Tile (tGPU)
GPU Mega Clusters12 GPCs (Graphics Processing Clusters)6 Shader Engines10 Render Slices
GPU Super Clusters72 TPC (Texture Processing Clusters)30 WGPs (Per MCD)
60 WGPs (In Total)
40 Xe-Cores (Per Tile)
160 Xe-Cores (Total)
GPU Clusters144 Stream Multiprocessors (SM)120 Compute Units (CU)
240 Compute Units (in total)
1280 Xe VE (Per Tile)
5120 Xe VE (In Total)
Cores (Per Die)18432 CUDA Cores7680 SPs (Per GCD)
15360 SPs (In Total)
20480 ALUs (In Total)
Peak Clock~2.85 GHz~3.0 GHzTBD
FP32 Compute~105 TFLOPs~92 TFLOPsTBD
Memory TypeGDDR6XGDDR6GDDR6?
Memory Capacity24 GB32 GBTBD
Memory Bus384-bit256-bitTBD
Memory Speeds~21 Gbps~18 GbpsTBD
Cache Subsystems96 MB L2 Cache512 MB (Infinity Cache)TBD
TBP~600W~500WTBD
LaunchQ4 2022Q4 20222023


Source: https://wccftech.com/next-gen-nvidi...aming-graphics-card-to-break-past-100-tflops/
With raytracing, throwing X amount of compute power (with matching memory bandwidth) at this problem is never enough.
 

rnlval

Member
At this point, we don't know how SMs are configured in Ada Lovelace. But if it's something like Ampere, then those TFLOPs are not that impressive.
Remember that Ampere replaced the Int units with more FP32 units. This increased TFLOP count, but performance per TFLOP decreased.
Example: The 2070 and 3060 are almost identical in rasterization performance.
But the 2070 is a 8.9 TLOP card. But the 3060 is a 14 TFLOP card.
On the AMD side, for example, a 6600 is only 4% slower than a 2070. With 8.9 TFLOPs.

The thing to keep in mind is that TFLOPs are no longer a good representation of real world performance.


Programmable shader integer operations don't disappear.

For example, stock RTX 2080 Ti can yield 13.45 TFLOPS + 6.725 TIOPS (integer) = 20.175 TOPS. RTX 3070 has about 20.31 TFLOPS or 20.31 TOPS.

In terms of programmable shaders and resulting gaming performance, both RTX 3070 and RTX 2080 Ti are similar.


----


AMD shader units are generalized for integer (24-bit integer) and floating points (32-bit floating point).



Anyway, NVIDIA's 32-bit integer shader performance is superior for compute. AMD's shader unit's 24-bit integer datatype bias is optimized for graphics 24-bit pixel color.



Extra floating point power from RTX 3080 is useful for geometry processing and it shows in mesh shader benchmarks.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
What is the point in me paying for a new GPU which can't even run the latest, most demanding games at max settings without any problems?
To play the latest and greatest at as best as technology allows.
Software will always trump the hardware made to run it because almost every game specially AAA titles are built for future hardware.
Even at launch youll be able to bring any GPU to its knees if you "max out everything".

If you think a GTX1060 is fine then just dont upgrade ever.
 
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