This; Wii U only has about a 1,590,000+ install base in Japan, last time I checked the media create thread.
It probably won't take very long for PS4 to outsell it in that region.
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Nintendo shares plunge 6% by Monday close after trading as low as -18%
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This; Wii U only has about a 1,590,000+ install base in Japan, last time I checked the media create thread.
It probably won't take very long for PS4 to outsell it in that region.
JordanN
Banned
I think PS4 could be the platform that if Japan chooses to, would revive whoever makes game for it (it's selling fast and has easier to work with architecture compared to PS3).
The console by itself though can't change how Japanese management works, which is the source of Japan's downfall.
I actually think it will surpass them easily.
MS probably wont move another 1.5 million in Japan this time, Nintendo surely won't do the same. Market is for the taking for Sony.
Nintendo can't pass 1.5 mil? WiiU's LTD is is around 1,600,000 last time I check
MS is already ded in the water. not all the moneyhatted jrpgs and my little kinects can't be this cute can save the Xbox One in Japan. I'd be surprised if it ever passes 1 million.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I honestly thought that by now Nintendo would have had a Skylanders-like game (and not that Pokemon thing that no one bought).
People love figurines, people love collecting and I'm sure they can make a solid game behind it. After all, they are a toy company... They should be making money out of that.
People love figurines, people love collecting and I'm sure they can make a solid game behind it. After all, they are a toy company... They should be making money out of that.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
BinaryPork2737
Unconfirmed Member
I'd buy a ton of figures for an RPG in the style/tone of Smash. Party members could range anywhere from Mario to Fox to Zelda to Samus etc. Would be interesting to see what Nintendo could do with something like that.
This HAS to be in development, if not I don't understand why they included NFC. It seems so obvious.
Ssh, we're not allowed to use logic and facts here
Seriously though, you're exactly right. It's what Iwata said, but people are ignoring that. That's why they keep pushing for smartphone development and third party, despite Iwata saying that's not happening.
We'll see:
Reduced prices/more deals
More F2P stuff
Subscription systems
I can see a rental system for many games akin to Wii Sports Club too. $2 to try Mario Kart for 24 hours for example
These will be the business structure changes, not suddenly dropping their entire company mandate, removing all the expansion that they have been doing the last 12 months, and throwing it all in to the moneymaker-du-jour, destroying any hope that the company is viable in the future. Hell, look what happened to Zynga.
BinaryPork2737
Unconfirmed Member
Speaking of free-to-play stuff, I wonder when we're going to get more information on the Steel Diver f2p game that was talked about. They talked about that back in June and still not much has been announced regarding it. Though to be fair, the same can be said for SMT x FE and GBA VC on the Wii U.
A good chunk of the home console market from the Wii/360/PS3 gen in Japan is gone and not coming back. Almost everyone is happy with their 3DS or phone.
If I had to put money on it, PS4 outsells Wii U, doesn't outsell PS3.
StreetsAhead
Member
Yes, so it would seem.
Sony still has a bad line-up for launch, and post-launch, regardless of future support. Obviously more is coming, and I don't think that it will sell as poorly as Wii U has, but, if it does stall after launch, I hope they recover quickly based on this promise support, otherwise I fear Japanese developers may abandon console development further. The Japanese market can't survive on one relatively healthy platform.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
I hope PS4 outsells Wii U handedly in Japan, just to disprove Nintendo's whole "Japan wants small, low power systems" theory.
Didn't the PS3 end up selling similar to the Wii? Between the two of them hopefully Nintendo will give up on that concept.
Didn't the PS3 end up selling similar to the Wii? Between the two of them hopefully Nintendo will give up on that concept.
shinra-bansho
Member
How predatory and immoral, teasing children like that.
Yes, I'm sure that smart devices are just a passing fancy and everybody will move on from them any day now.
Yes, that's comparable. Having a rental system is totally similar to enticing children with a game aimed at them that is laden with microtransactions, as per the previous conversation to which you are referring.
Totally the same.
That had already been disproved by the PS2 and the original Playstation.
And Nintendo should help with the revivement of the home console market. If it means more colabs such as Zelda Musuo or refuding IPs dead in the water (such as bayo) then so be it
Nintendo can't revive the console market with partnerships. Not even Nintendo could afford to fund or partially-fund the sheer amount of games it would take to turn around the console market in Japan.
In fact, one of the biggest flaws with Nintendo's approach to 3rd parties is only thinking about them in the context of game-specific partnerships.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
PS3 and even PS3 had horrible year one games lists too. I hope the easy architecture makes it easier for devs and quicker to create their games since the PS3 was a disaster in that area.
I don't think JP devs are leaving the console space anytime soon. The big franchises (apart from DQ) are still there and I'm sure new franchises will appear there as well.
PS3 is 2-3 million away from Wii which is pretty amazing considering at one point it was 5million+ away.
What I wonder is why everyone, including the gaming press and Nintendo themselves sometimes, seem to put Nintendo in the boxing ring with Sony and Microsoft while they should be paired up in the MMA ring with family entertainment focused companies such as Disney and Lego.
Nintendo is and has for a long time been a company that is essentially making family products that compete with other toys and games. In that sense they should never willingly pick a fight with multimedia, technology or software giants such as Sony or Microsoft, and so far they never really have done that openly.
The problem however, is that they don't have a choice anymore since Apple and the other tablet and smartphone companies have stepped up and have completely disrupted the battlefield in such a way that toy companies ARE now competing with technology giants for the family's attention.
In other words, when Iwata talks about misreading the market, I think that he is never talking about the competition from Sony and Microsoft and their better technology or internet service etc. He is talking about not predicting to what incredible degree Apple and its peers have managed to step in and corner the family entertainment market (away from Disney etc.) with products that are in a way too expensive and too "technological" to be sold as family toys.
The result is that Disney, Lego, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are sudddenly facing a similar challenge: how to get the attention away from Apple and other tablet companies.
Microsoft and Sony are doing that by offering high-end media and game boxes that cater to the adult gamer (which as a long term strategy might put them in a small niche corner as well when the newest generation of their target audience chooses tablets or pc entertainment instead of consoles as well). Disney and Lego seem to have chosen the "if we can't beat them, join them" motto by releasing their own products seperately and then combining those with tablet and smartphone apps.
Nintendo, who on paper should have had the best chance to really shine in this new market since they already specialize in digital entertainment for families, fumbled by releasing a tablet-like console (thereby putting it in direct competition with both Apple and Microsoft and Sony), possibly with the idea that it would be a good entry level tablet-like device for kids and families. It seems likely that they have failed at that for the most part. And yes, this is due to their marketing on the one hand, but in a large part also due to them misreading how easily families would adopt tablets and smartphones as affordable and primary sources of entertainment.
To reiterate: Nintendo failed because they stayed too close to the centre of this new all-encompassing family dollar battlefield instead of going all out to one side or the other (or to find a new side by itself). Where the Wii, just like the Nes before it, was disruptive and unique enough to create its own market, its own battlefield if you will, the Wii U (and 3DS to a lesser degree) can only put up a weak fight against far stronger competitors on their terms by not being unique enough.
I'm not counting Nintendo out just yet, but they do face a extremely steep challenge now to pick the battle they can win instead of fighting on all fronts. Whether they go fully after the tablet and smartphone market (which would require them to give up creating their traditional hardware probably), or after the high-end console market (a battle that they might have lost forever by now), or stick to the kid friendly entry level handheld market (which is more and more in decline as well), they have to choose. In the end they might in fact opt to go all out in the toy market by following Disney and Lego again (for instance by releasing a Skylanders type product, or a combination of toys and software on other devices). Only Nintendo knows I guess.
Nintendo is and has for a long time been a company that is essentially making family products that compete with other toys and games. In that sense they should never willingly pick a fight with multimedia, technology or software giants such as Sony or Microsoft, and so far they never really have done that openly.
The problem however, is that they don't have a choice anymore since Apple and the other tablet and smartphone companies have stepped up and have completely disrupted the battlefield in such a way that toy companies ARE now competing with technology giants for the family's attention.
In other words, when Iwata talks about misreading the market, I think that he is never talking about the competition from Sony and Microsoft and their better technology or internet service etc. He is talking about not predicting to what incredible degree Apple and its peers have managed to step in and corner the family entertainment market (away from Disney etc.) with products that are in a way too expensive and too "technological" to be sold as family toys.
The result is that Disney, Lego, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are sudddenly facing a similar challenge: how to get the attention away from Apple and other tablet companies.
Microsoft and Sony are doing that by offering high-end media and game boxes that cater to the adult gamer (which as a long term strategy might put them in a small niche corner as well when the newest generation of their target audience chooses tablets or pc entertainment instead of consoles as well). Disney and Lego seem to have chosen the "if we can't beat them, join them" motto by releasing their own products seperately and then combining those with tablet and smartphone apps.
Nintendo, who on paper should have had the best chance to really shine in this new market since they already specialize in digital entertainment for families, fumbled by releasing a tablet-like console (thereby putting it in direct competition with both Apple and Microsoft and Sony), possibly with the idea that it would be a good entry level tablet-like device for kids and families. It seems likely that they have failed at that for the most part. And yes, this is due to their marketing on the one hand, but in a large part also due to them misreading how easily families would adopt tablets and smartphones as affordable and primary sources of entertainment.
To reiterate: Nintendo failed because they stayed too close to the centre of this new all-encompassing family dollar battlefield instead of going all out to one side or the other (or to find a new side by itself). Where the Wii, just like the Nes before it, was disruptive and unique enough to create its own market, its own battlefield if you will, the Wii U (and 3DS to a lesser degree) can only put up a weak fight against far stronger competitors on their terms by not being unique enough.
I'm not counting Nintendo out just yet, but they do face a extremely steep challenge now to pick the battle they can win instead of fighting on all fronts. Whether they go fully after the tablet and smartphone market (which would require them to give up creating their traditional hardware probably), or after the high-end console market (a battle that they might have lost forever by now), or stick to the kid friendly entry level handheld market (which is more and more in decline as well), they have to choose. In the end they might in fact opt to go all out in the toy market by following Disney and Lego again (for instance by releasing a Skylanders type product, or a combination of toys and software on other devices). Only Nintendo knows I guess.
Well, if PS3 and EVEN PS3 had drought...
...You meant PS2, I suppose.
The current problem is that, outside of the launch...what's slated for 2014? Less than 10 titles in total? The time goes by, but announcements for PS4 post TGS are almost on Wii U levels, number wise (2 v.s. 0). Let's see if the month before launch changes things.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Well, if PS3 and EVEN PS3 had drought...
...You meant PS2, I suppose.
The current problem is that, outside of the launch...what's slated for 2014? Less than 10 titles in total? The time goes by, but announcements for PS4 post TGS are almost on Wii U levels, number wise (2 v.s. 0). Let's see if the month before launch changes things.
Yes lol.
I wasn't just talking about launch as well. Please take a look at PS2's first year and the games.
I agree with you.
Nintendo could/should partner with tech giants on some projects.
Get its R/D focused on novel forms of family oriented fun.
Eventually fund a retro line to cater to its 30-something years old audience.
I'm maybe the only one, but a HDMI enabled NES and micro-usb Gameboy are dream like products to me. along with a retro line of software.
Aquamarine
Member
Ssh, we're not allowed to use logic and facts here
Seriously though, you're exactly right. It's what Iwata said, but people are ignoring that. That's why they keep pushing for smartphone development and third party, despite Iwata saying that's not happening.
We'll see:
Reduced prices/more deals
More F2P stuff
Subscription systems
I can see a rental system for many games akin to Wii Sports Club too. $2 to try Mario Kart for 24 hours for example
These will be the business structure changes, not suddenly dropping their entire company mandate, removing all the expansion that they have been doing the last 12 months, and throwing it all in to the moneymaker-du-jour, destroying any hope that the company is viable in the future. Hell, look what happened to Zynga.
The most important facet that Iwata NEEDS DESPERATELY to address is the third straight year of consolidated operating losses despite insisting every year that the upcoming year will show changes.
To investors, especially long-term investors, that's the most controversial aspect of Iwata's tenure. I fear that the following systems / changes won't be received all that warmly, if they really are the paths that Iwata takes...because there is a real risk that we won't return to "Nintendo-like profits" next year.
Instead, they feel somewhat incremental, which I will admit is very understandable given Nintendo's nuanced position in the market.
For example:
Nintendo's Major FY3/2014 Investments:
Lego City Undercover (localization)
New Super Luigi U
Game & Wario
Pikmin 3
The Wonderful 101
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD
Wii Party U
Wii Fit U
Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games (with Sega)
Super Mario 3D World
Sonic Lost World (with Sega)
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
Art Academy: SketchPad
Pokemon Rumble U
Wii Sports Club - Tennis
Wii Sports Club - Bowling
Wii Sports Club - Golf
NES Remix
Dr. Luigi
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity (localization)
Lego City Undercover: The Chase Begins
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D
Friend Collection: New Life (Japan only)
Animal Crossing: New Leaf (localization)
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
Pokémon X and Y
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
Mario Party: Island Tour
Bravely Default (localization)
Kirby Triple Deluxe (Japan only)
Daigasso! Band Brothers P (Japan only)
--
Puzzles & Dragons Z (Japan only)
Monster Hunter 4 (Japan only)
Tokyo Crash Mobs
HarmoKnight
Kersploosh!
Mario and Donkey Kong: Minis on the Move
Dillon's Rolling Western: The Last Ranger
Chibi-Robo! Photo Finder
Yet despite all of these efforts in or around the fiscal year, we will see another -30 billion JPY operating loss.
Indeed. They face competition from different fronts.
They are in competition for videogame enthousiast ("hardcore", "teenagers") with Sony and MS , with casuals (kids, woman, general population) with iOS/Android, and with the videogame industry in general for support (mostly the EA/Ubisoft/Activision/Squarey) with Sony & MS.
Indeed, there is definitely something wrong that needs to be dealt with. A large part of that is due to the Wii U, but don't forget that Nintendo has been expanding this year, and that has a massive effect on the financials without any effect seen for a year or two.
The problem is that, if they did go smartphone, it would possible result in increased profits, sure, but that will likely then collapse to low profit, if any profit at all, after the first year. Yes, there's money in the smartphone market, but only really if you're wildly successful. Especially as Apple takes high margins for it.
Hell, even then, you don't have to look hard to see examples of games not doing well on iOS but doing well on the 3DS. Look at Gunman Clive, BirdMania 3D etc. They have seen more success, and thus more money, on the 3DS compared to iOS.
I just feel it's very shortsighted for people, especially analysts, to claim that smartphones are the answer. They aren't.
Why are we assuming that console gaming is dead in Japan? Is it only because of WiiU or something else? We've already been proved that we can't assume how the new consoles are going to sell based on WiiU failures.
I have no idea how much PS4 is going to sell, but if I had to take a guess I would say that it'll do at least PS3 numbers. I can only see it failing if every big japanese company turn 99% of it's production to smartphone games.
I have no idea how much PS4 is going to sell, but if I had to take a guess I would say that it'll do at least PS3 numbers. I can only see it failing if every big japanese company turn 99% of it's production to smartphone games.
ArchedThunder
Banned
PS3's LTD was much lower than older consoles and Japanese devs are putting out fewer titles on consoles.
Aquamarine
Member
Oh, there's certainly a very valid argument to be had about why Nintendo immediately rushing to smartphone development could backfire, and why it's a bad idea for their company culture.
Really, the largest blight at Nintendo right now is the Wii U. 3DS is underperforming in overseas retail (compared to the DS third-party wise) most definitely, but Wii U in particular is draining company profits. Unfortunately, Nintendo seems to have lost the knack for staying afloat despite a mediocre console.
The decent profitability we saw during the GameCube / GBA / early DS era can't seem to be sufficiently recouped by the 3DS, and Wii U losses are certainly more extravagant and systemic than the GameCube.
(Keep in mind, the 3DS underperforming / handheld market shrinking is a larger long-term problem)
But you're right. This fiscal year, Nintendo's marketing / research and development costs are 23 billion JPY larger than their initial 100 billion JPY operating income forecast accounted for. However, that doesn't excuse an overall operating loss, especially another 35 billion JPY loss.
Investors were willing to give Iwata allowances because of the expectations behind the Wii U. When the Wii U initially flopped, investors gave the console the benefit of the doubt out of goodwill. But now that we have a full year of underwhelming holiday performance and widely-reported worldwide failure?
I'm just worried that if Iwata underdelivers with nothing but half-baked, relatively minor changes to corporate strategy, many will lose faith in his abilities...and this could have repercussions.
Personally I hate the Wii U. Don't get me wrong, I love my console and I adore the 15+ games I've purchased for it, but I feel that in a business sense it's becoming more and more of a lost cause...a Virtual Boy-esque burden for the company because of its heavily flawed implementation that should be replaced by something more fundamentally promising...with a "third pillar," so to speak.
I don't think the Wii U should be supported software-wise after Zelda / Smash Bros. / Mario Kart / other scheduled, tentpole projects come out. I think Nintendo should prioritize its time and attention on what's next on the horizon.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's an alternative enticement and monetization scheme, so yes.
Whether it's done via IAPs, perpetual subscription, one hour trial, plastering advertising and product placement.
There's nothing inherently "immoral" with them, unless one simply takes that it's immoral in general to try and monetize children's desires. Systems can be designed to be deliberately exploitative, or "fair," regardless of the core monetization concept.
It's somehow okay to try and entice children with a day of Mario Kart, after which they'll need to spend another $40 to keep playing or whatever. But it's somehow the worst thing in the world to give a fully featured Mario Kart away for free and charge for premium content and bonus characters.
I'm curious to know what your ideal announcements from Nintendo would be.
I don't expect it "save console gaming in Japan". But I expect it to do at least PS3 numbers.
You mean like this?
Or maybe this?
Nintendo has been employing these Super Evil F2P Tricks for close to two decades. The only difference between an "in-app purchase" and these is that this time those immoral cartoon monsters wouldn't be a choking hazard.
You mean like this?
Or maybe this?
Nintendo has been employing these Super Evil F2P Tricks for close to two decades. The only difference between an "in-app purchase" and these is that this time those immoral cartoon monsters wouldn't be a choking hazard.
1. The TCG is a separate thing to the games. It runs just like all other collectable card games. It also has nothing to do with Nintendo.
2. The figures on the left aren't the ones on the right. On the left are merchandise which have nothing to do with Nintendp. On the right are the packs for the figures for Pokémon Rumble U, of which there were only 18 total and they weren't vital or even advertised much in the game itself. Plus, theywere only a few dollars each, compared to Skylanders which has a lot more for a lot more each.
the thoroughbred
Member
Journalists love to paint that gloom and doom story, nobody wants to buy a mediocre story. That's why the shares plummet and then rectify the over reaction. It's not good, but it's not at the stage of bankruptcy. They have enough cash reserved from the Wii-era alone to bankroll another 2 failures.
1. It has nothing to do with Nintendo? Wow, they should sue those trading card guys! It's a game Nintendo publishes and if they chose to make a digital version of the exact same thing, it would be indistinguishable from any other microtransaction-laden game aimed at children.
2. Oops, I meant to post a picture of the Rumble U toys, but you're not really making them sound any less like microtransactions (which is not what Skylanders are - that's an expensive game with expensive toys). There may be few right now, but if the game somehow became popular, you can bet that there would be a toy of every single monster (there were fewer Skylanders at first too, you know). They didn't limit the number of toys because 18 (with a few rare variants) is the magical moral number.
They're sold in unmarked pokeballs because kids are meant to keep buying them over and over. Forever, if luck is on Nintendo's side. Blind boxes are way shadier than selling a billion clearly marked Skylanders or hats for your digital avatar, and being a physical thing doesn't make them any less exploitative. Neither does carrying a Nintendo logo.
Their next hardware will be iS handheld. One vertical screen instead of two with a camera on top of the screen.
Azure Dream
Member
It would be silly to buy a Wii U less than 10 days before a potential bomb is dropped. Nintendo will do something, they know they can't stay the course, it's just a matter of what.
digoutyoursoul
Member
Hope those bombs are big
SolarPowered
Member
This is a pretty good deal considering that it comes with a one year warranty. I'm still waiting until MK8 and Smash are out though. MK8, Smash and 3D Mario are the triple threat of Nintendo consoles (I'm sure Zelda fans can rightfully disagree).
I suggest you read earlier in the thread for how the Pokémon licensing work. Yes, it's a partially Nintendo owned franchise, but not everything goes through them, especially in regards to merchandise.
As for Rumble U, you are mistaken. In Japan, they did the sets monthly. 6 in each set for three months, then stopped. Not because it wasn't popular, as they were, but because they took it as far as they wanted. They would NOT make 886 figures for each Pokémon and each form of each Pokémon, for use in a game. Nintendo aren't like that. Look at Animal Crossing, they could have microtransacted the hell out of it, and even considered it, but Iwata said no because it would have been wrong.
Well. You may be disappointed. PS4 wont do better than ps3. Dont let the hardcore who are buying it fool you into thinking the PS4 is in a wii frenzy. It isnt.
I can't predict the future but with FFXV, MGS and KH coming, I don't think the PS4 will have problems outselling the Wii-U, not to talk of the unannounced games we have.
I'll expect even cross platform games to do well on the PS4.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Because the PS4 has far less Japanese games announced for to be released in the first year than even the Wii U had, and they are a lot lower profile.
Think about that.
The Japanese support aside from successful western franchise so far is dire.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
I never said anything about the PS4 outselling the PS3 or Wii. I said outsell the Wii U, which is entirely possible.
evilromero
Member
Luigi's Picross to the rescue.
I won't be surprised if it happens. I see Sony actually continuing to make the case for why you should get the PS4 either due to games or simply as piece of tech. This is different from the hand held market. I too would love to see it happen just to make Nintendo realized that the low sound small hardware desire doesn't exist, at least doesn't when it comes to home consoles, especially when that casual/new gamer market isn't a factor.
Which brings me to something I've been wondering about. What are the odds of NIntendo's next system not being a low powered mistake. Even if they themselves don't use the power what if they actually develop the hardware third parties want and are in line with what Sony and Microsoft have out now or will have out?
Nintendo can still be unique when it comes to controls schemes and software. Can they afford to be unique, drop the ball again, when it comes to the home console hardware instead of just sucking it up and playing ball? Wouldn't that be more likely to get them third party royalty fees vs getting nothing now since games simply aren't being released?
How expensive would it actually be to go to the companies providing the parts to Sony and work out a deal for similar or even the same parts. Couldn't they do that for most of the stuff that isn't proprietary on the Sony front? Or is there something stopping that? Could this be a way of getting a higher powered system out there and not break the bank since those companies already have product lines running due to supply parts to Sony and maybe Microsoft?
Edit:
I say this because while I have a Wii U, enjoy the games I do have, and I'm looking forward to X, Smash Bros, Zelda, Bayonetta 2, and Mario Kart I'm ready for something better. The Wii U as a system does not excite me at all. It did initally but that feeling has long gone away. I'm well hoping for something better and if those games are its swan song I'm drifting more in the direction of being okay with that. That will take us into maybe year 3. Including those games I listed I would have purchased 14 titles (including Nintendo Land) and that doesn't include eShop titles. That's more then the average player so I wouldn't feel to cheated due a library that big.
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