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Nintendo: Switch still halfway through lifecycle, Switch 2 barely in planning phase

UltimaKilo

Gold Member
I’m sure they have numbers to back-up this strategy, but it would make me nervous, as an investor. Expecting significant growth beyond next year is a bit difficult to believe.
 

NahaNago

Member
Well they just released the oled so I was expecting at least 2 more years of this switch because of that , plus the switch is still selling very well so why would they try to release a new console right now. I guess now it will be 2 more solid years of game releases and then on the third year we will have a drought of games and then they release a new switch in early year 4.
 

gundalf

Member
The reality is just that nvidia can't deliver a new next gen mass-produced SoC for Nintendo and I think this situation will stay so for the next 16-24 months..
 
(Remember the "third pillar" talk for continued GBA support while the DS was out? Yeah, that lasted like, what, 6 months?)
they released a new Zelda after the release of the DS in 2005, a new GBA model after the release of the DS etc.

they tried, it didn't work. the success of the DS (and PSP) cannibalized the GBA's momentum. despite this the GBA wasn't discontinued in the US till 2008 and 2010 respectively.
 

carlosrox

Banned
Wouldn't this confirm an actual Pro at some point in the future then?

They'd need to release another revision with all this time and what else could they do besides maybe a Lite OLED? Maybe an even smaller version that's truly portable?

Aside from something like that they have nowhere to go but an actual Pro model.

Especially if there's actually another 4 years.


I do believe what they say about software though. Lots of potential games they could bring. BOTW2 and Splat 3 will already be big. Prime 4, 3D Kirby, and more.
 
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Marty-McFly

Banned
Wouldn't this confirm an actual Pro at some point in the future then?

They'd need to release another revision with all this time and what else could they do besides maybe a Lite OLED? Maybe an even smaller version that's truly portable?

Aside from something like that they have nowhere to go but an actual Pro model.

Especially if there's actually another 4 years.


I do believe what they say about software though. Lots of potential games they could bring. BOTW2 and Splat 3 will already be big. Prime 4, 3D Kirby, and more.
I believe it's in the pipeline.
 
Good. I am getting tired of the rush for new consoles when they do come out only to be beaten by scalpers and people who literally camp out overnight at the store enterance. Usually have to wait a year or longer because of this mad rush of people. I'm happy with my current switch and am not eager for another console rat race.
 

Marty-McFly

Banned
I’m sure they have numbers to back-up this strategy, but it would make me nervous, as an investor. Expecting significant growth beyond next year is a bit difficult to believe.
It comes down to the games.

If they can have another BOTW, Animal Crossing, MK8, Mario type huge game come out systems will keep flying off the shelves.

Also, Capcom Switch software sales, and GTA should do well for ever increasing Switch third party growth.
 

S0ULZB0URNE

Member
Man this has astroturfing written all over it.

Nintendo won't admit a new device is coming after the holidays as they have to sell the current model this holiday.
Am I right OP?
 

ThaGuy

Member
I'm pretty sure the next console is already in or past planning stages lol. They mention this after every console release that they start researching what the next console might be almost immediately, as does Microsoft and Sony.
 

jigglet

Member
Ah complacent Nintendo is back.

EDIT: actually it’s probably another bullshit article.
 
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Marty-McFly

Banned
Man this has astroturfing written all over it.

Nintendo won't admit a new device is coming after the holidays as they have to sell the current model this holiday.
Am I right OP?
This holidays? No. They're telling their investor's a new platform is not coming for over 4 years.
:messenger_neutral:
 

S0ULZB0URNE

Member
This holidays? No. They're telling their investor's a new platform is not coming for over 4 years.
:messenger_neutral:
This holiday they will be quiet on a newer more powerful device.

You know damn well we aren't waiting 4 years for a new more powerful device from them.

I think it will be as soon as next year.
 

carlosrox

Banned
This holiday they will be quiet on a newer more powerful device.

You know damn well we aren't waiting 4 years for a new more powerful device from them.

I think it will be as soon as next year.

They've been on a 2 year cycle so far with the Switch. Why would they break that next year especially when Switch is still selling well?

Not saying it's impossible but I think 2023 makes more sense for a Pro.
 

Marty-McFly

Banned
This holiday they will be quiet on a newer more powerful device.

You know damn well we aren't waiting 4 years for a new more powerful device from them.

I think it will be as soon as next year.
Switch 4k if the rumors are true is not Switch 2. It's just a Switch Pro-type model.

All Switch games will play on 4K from what I've gathered, it will just have enhanced visuals.
 
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DaGwaphics

Member
With that said some higher resolution for tv play model would be a nice QoL improvement. It would not even have to be that more powerful, they could add like 30% more flops and add a lot of the ML cores turing and beyond use which could DLSS switch games to like 1440p-2160p

I figured they would have already announced a TV specific model by now, seemed natural after the handheld only version. My idea would be they just used the same chip though and overclock it as much as possible. You'd think they'd have some room to overclock since they could design the little box with a bit more room for cooling and wouldn't need to consider thermals on a battery/screen.
 

S0ULZB0URNE

Member
Switch 4k if the rumors are true is not Switch 2. It's just a Switch Pro-type model.

All Switch games will play on 4K from what I've gathered, it will just have enhanced visuals.
Yeah a more powerful device.

It better play the current Switch games.

Many would wait and buy such a device if they had concrete information about it coming.
 

Deerock71

Member
Hmmm...a strategically conservative company, factoring in chip shortages and sales projections, all while holding all their usual playing cards, like bundles, price cuts, and color/limited edition versions, closely to their chest. Anybody that doesn't think Nintendo wants to stretch this winning hand out as far as it will go is not studying this company and it's tendencies very closely. I think they'll start being happy at 156 million Switches.
 

Marty-McFly

Banned
Hmmm...a strategically conservative company, factoring in chip shortages and sales projections, all while holding all their usual playing cards, like bundles, price cuts, and color/limited edition versions, closely to their chest. Anybody that doesn't think Nintendo wants to stretch this winning hand out as far as it will go is not studying this company and it's tendencies very closely. I think they'll start being happy at 156 million Switches.
From a marketing perspective, Switch selling the most units of all time would be great for Nintendo. You can't beat that PR.
 
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Sosokrates

Founder of western console warring.
I figured they would have already announced a TV specific model by now, seemed natural after the handheld only version. My idea would be they just used the same chip though and overclock it as much as possible. You'd think they'd have some room to overclock since they could design the little box with a bit more room for cooling and wouldn't need to consider thermals on a battery/screen.
I didnt mean just a tv model, it could be any model, I think a hybrid model is more likely.
 

Ozzie666

Member
It would be great if Nintendo can keep up their steam, they have a history of cutting and running. The Wii is the perfect example, they dropped it like a hot potato once it hit 2010 I think? At this rate, I wonder if there will be another main line Mario game on this hard ware.

It's an interesting place to be in, fear of moving on or milking what you have, because it's working so well and making so much money. I think after the Wii to Wii-U, they are gun shy, they need to get this right.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Switch 4k if the rumors are true is not Switch 2. It's just a Switch Pro-type model.

All Switch games will play on 4K from what I've gathered, it will just have enhanced visuals.
I really don't believe that..

Very far fetched, especially for Nintendo.
 
It's still sellng like hotcakes right now so there's no reason for nintendo to leave all that money on the table.

This seems to be the answer for everything now. I miss the days when the gaming industry valued innovation.

This is the same response to why we are still getting so many cross gen games (PS5/Series X) and cloud based games on the switch and it sucks.
 
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There is no way switch keeps this same sales momentum for the next 4 years to sell 144 million consoles. They are already having supply issues with the chip shortage.

I think they top out from anywhere from 125-130
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
Shouldn’t surprise anyone. You don’t go from selling 28 million consoles in a year to flatlining and releasing a successor lol.

That PS2 lifetime sales number is well within their reach. 3 more years of 20 mil a year sales and they’re there.
 

Zannegan

Gold Member
This holidays? No. They're telling their investor's a new platform is not coming for over 4 years.
:messenger_neutral:
They didn't and wouldn't say anything this concrete. The Switch being halfway through its life cycle doesn't preclude a successor in 2023 (not that I'm holding my breath).

If they get their continued growth next year and if there is a Pro version, they might hold off for four years (or more). If sales dip though, you can bet they'll be ready to mobilize a successor by the next fiscal year. They're going to wait to get the best bang per buck, hardware-wise, but they aren't going to wait around and let their momentum and cash reserves bleed if things don't go to plan in 2022.
 
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Marty-McFly

Banned
Shouldn’t surprise anyone. You don’t go from selling 28 million consoles in a year to flatlining and releasing a successor lol.

That PS2 lifetime sales number is well within their reach. 3 more years of 20 mil a year sales and they’re there.
The news in this thread all but confirms it.
 

Zannegan

Gold Member
There is no way switch keeps this same sales momentum for the next 4 years to sell 144 million consoles. They are already having supply issues with the chip shortage.

I think they top out from anywhere from 125-130
They haven't even had a price drop yet. Do you really think another 60 million is completely beyond them? I don't think it's a done deal ny any means, but it seems at least possible at this point.

I guess next year will tell. If they match this year or even hit just 20 million it remains a possibility. If they have a monster year 6 (say 30 million) then it's in the bag. It probably all depends on how Mario Kart 9 looks.
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
There is no way switch keeps this same sales momentum for the next 4 years to sell 144 million consoles. They are already having supply issues with the chip shortage.

I think they top out from anywhere from 125-130
125 million is only ~30 million more sales. They just sold 28 million in one year. I can't see any way in which they don't easily hit 130 million at the very least.

Another Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Party, Zelda, etc..........hell if they keep churning out the blockbusters they could keep it going for 200 million. They haven't even had an official price drop yet lol. If they dropped the price to $200 tomorrow there would be stock shortages that make the Series X and PS5 shortages look like nothing.
 
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They haven't even had a price drop yet. Do you really think another 60 million is completely beyond them? I don't think it's a done deal ny any means, but it seems at least possible at this point.

I guess next year will tell. If they match this year or even hit just 20 million it remains a possibility. If they have a monster year 6 (say 30 million) then it's in the bag. It probably all depends on how Mario Kart 9 looks.
125 million is only ~30 million more sales. They just sold 28 million in one year. I can't see any way in which they don't easily hit 130 million at the very least.

Another Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Party, Zelda, etc..........hell if they keep churning out the blockbusters they could keep it going for 200 million. They haven't even had an official price drop yet lol. If they dropped the price to $200 tomorrow there would be stock shortages that make the Series X and PS5 shortages look like nothing.

I guess we’ll see. I think it depends on whether or not they really launch a successor in 2023 or not
 
2022 is definitely no,
2023 is still too early, they will probably release different colors of OLED. Plus chances are PS5/XBox will probably at their peak
2024 is the probably the most likely year we will get Next Switch,
2025 if they wait this long, they run into the risk of early announcement of PS6/next XBox which will take buzz away from their next Switch
 

Fare thee well

Neophyte
Given how awful the economy and tech have been since covid, I'm kind of relieved. Everything needs a couple of years to catch up and restoke the fires. It would be far better to focus energies on games that bring actual fun content over being a 4k nothingburger like so many Triple As have become.
 

Cutty Flam

Member
If Nintendo puts Gamecube games onto the Switch as well it's probably going to tie for my favorite console of all time. I've said this a dozen times and I'll say it again, the library of games available for Switch is impressive and it continues to grow. I'm glad that there are still several good years ahead. I've only played like fifteen to twenty actual Switch games, the rest has been me catching up with classics and other games I've missed from the past. There are so many good games available for Switch and if they're going to put forward $900 million towards more games then there's probably going to be another solid 30-45 AAA games to look forward to
 

Zannegan

Gold Member
2022 is definitely no,
2023 is still too early, they will probably release different colors of OLED. Plus chances are PS5/XBox will probably at their peak
2024 is the probably the most likely year we will get Next Switch,
2025 if they wait this long, they run into the risk of early announcement of PS6/next XBox which will take buzz away from their next Switch
Don't you think PS5/XSX will just be hitting their stride in 2023? That's three years in. And I highly doubt we'll see their successors as soon as 2026. Mid-gen refreshes in 2025 seems like a sure bet though, so you have a point there.

Still, if Nintendo continues with the hybrid strategy, I see no reason for them to be too worried about the competition so long as they aren't launching in the same year. A hybrid would be in a different price bracket from the big boys (though barely) and have a enough differentiating it not to feel reduntant.

That's not to say they aren't in competition, and I don't disagree that 2024 would be a solid (if disappointingly distant) window of opportunity for them. I just don't think they're that bounded by what Sony and MS do, especially to the point where they'd have ti avoid 2023.
 
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