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November 2021 US NPD

Woopah

Member
Switch was flat in October and slightly down in November yoy, it needs NPD sales to be flat in December (2 million) if it is to ship 11 million worldwide for the quarter. Probably looking at a slight decline from last years 11.57m Q3.

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Is that bottom half of that supposed to be software instead of hardware?
 

reksveks

Member
I doubt it. No way Switch can meet the demand of the Xbox and PS in their second major holiday season it's already 5 years old.

Will find out in 9 days; Amazon archived best sellers for December ordered by revenue:


Switch OLED at #9
PS5 at #16
Series S Fortnite Bundle at #20
Series S at #22

It's not about demand only.

Is NPD done by Revenue or Units?
 

Three

Member
Will find out in 9 days; Amazon archived best sellers for December ordered by revenue:


Switch OLED at #9
PS5 at #16
Series S Fortnite Bundle at #20
Series S at #22

It's not about demand only.

Is NPD done by Revenue or Units?
Pretty sure both Amazon and NPD are by units. Though NPD give revenue rankings info too.
 

reksveks

Member
Pretty sure both Amazon and NPD are by units. Though NPD give revenue rankings info too.

Thought Amazon was revenue but NPD was units (at least the ranking that we largely get on Twitter). I can't find any information on the Amazon Charts and how they works so would be interested to see if there is a good article/link on it. I was interested in know how often it updates and what time period it looks like.

Still confident in my prediction. I think it's inline with others on other forums as well.
 
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GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
This is hardly only a console production issue. This is happening to cars manufacturers, graphic cards, etc...

Chip shortage is a problem for everyone involved in electronics unfortunately. And yes it's bad...
So the Switch will be facing chip shortages as well. I think MS and Sony are the newer more in demand kids on the block which is why I think December belongs to Sony. I bet they saved their biggest shipments for December because its the biggest month of the year.
 
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Three

Member
Thought Amazon was revenue but NPD was units (at least the ranking that we largely get on Twitter). I can't find any information on the Amazon Charts and how they works so would be interested to see if there is a good article/link on it. I was interested in know how often it updates and what time period it looks like.

Still confident in my prediction. I think it's inline with others on other forums as well.
I think your prediction is sound. It will more than likely match your predictions.

I don't fully understand the ranking on Amazon but from what I understand it's updated hourly based on units. How the velocity ranking is calculated though I don't understand. Some swear it is based on revenue but judging by game releases it seems like units when you look at monthly rankings.
 

noshten

Member
Switch to outsell PS5/XS combined in December like it did in November, last year they sold over 2 million units - expect something similar this year but with more revenue due to OLED.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
Switch to outsell PS5/XS combined in December like it did in November, last year they sold over 2 million units - expect something similar this year but with more revenue due to OLED.
2 million in a month beating PS5 and XS combined in it's fifth year on the market? That seems pretty optimistic.

Maaaybee Nintendo eeks out 2nd behind Sony, if not third but I guess we'll see.
 

reksveks

Member
I don't think anyone is going to convince Gigabowser here.

Also the idea that either MS and Sony are holding back consoles for December is kinda funny, they are inherently in the business of making money off the platform and for Sony, that largely means having a console.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
I don't think anyone is going to convince Gigabowser here.

Also the idea that either MS and Sony are holding back consoles for December is kinda funny, they are inherently in the business of making money off the platform and for Sony, that largely means having a console.
Winning December is good headlines everywhere. It's something that's virtually always reported by every tech news editor (even in the mainsteam) on the planet. It's easily the most important month of the year.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Pretty sure both Amazon and NPD are by units. Though NPD give revenue rankings info too.
NPD mostly sticks to revenue ranking.
Sometimes it says the units ranking... mainly when people ask on twitter.

Amazon I have no ideia but how the PSN Cards are always in the #1 I should guess it is units.
 
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Woopah

Member
2 million in a month beating PS5 and XS combined in it's fifth year on the market? That seems pretty optimistic.

Maaaybee Nintendo eeks out 2nd behind Sony, if not third but I guess we'll see.
A few key points about why that would be very unlikely
  • As a general rule, November is usually the biggest month of the year for PlayStation and Xbox in terms of weekly sales, with their sales going down in December . For Nintendo it is usually the opposite, with their December weekly sales being higher than their November ones
  • In November 2021, the combined available supply of PS5 and XB Series was the same as the supply of Switch. It would be very odd therefore for either PS5 or XB Series to have more supply than Switch in December
  • Yes Switch is also being affected by the chip shortage, but its using older parts and is therefore not as affected as the newer consoles are. It is also smaller and therefore easier to transport through a congested supply chain
  • While Switch is in its 5th year, it is still showing fairly strong sales that are not easy for a new console to hit.
But as you say, I guess we'll see
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
A few key points about why that would be very unlikely
  • As a general rule, November is usually the biggest month of the year for PlayStation and Xbox in terms of weekly sales, with their sales going down in December . For Nintendo it is usually the opposite, with their December weekly sales being higher than their November ones
  • In November 2021, the combined available supply of PS5 and XB Series was the same as the supply of Switch. It would be very odd therefore for either PS5 or XB Series to have more supply than Switch in December
  • Yes Switch is also being affected by the chip shortage, but its using older parts and is therefore not as affected as the newer consoles are. It is also smaller and therefore easier to transport through a congested supply chain
  • While Switch is in its 5th year, it is still showing fairly strong sales that are not easy for a new console to hit.
But as you say, I guess we'll see
“Fairly strong sales” of the switch is a bit of an understatement. Isn’t it on track to sell 20+ million again this year?
 

Woopah

Member
“Fairly strong sales” of the switch is a bit of an understatement. Isn’t it on track to sell 20+ million again this year?
It's targeted at shipments of 24 million (if Nintendo can provide produce that much) this fiscal year.

Maybe "particularly strong" would be better.
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
It's targeted at shipments of 24 million (if Nintendo can provide produce that much) this fiscal year.

Maybe "particularly strong" would be better.
Pretty sure that would be one of the single best years of sales for any console, ever. Like top 5.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
A few key points about why that would be very unlikely
  • As a general rule, November is usually the biggest month of the year for PlayStation and Xbox in terms of weekly sales, with their sales going down in December . For Nintendo it is usually the opposite, with their December weekly sales being higher than their November ones
  • In November 2021, the combined available supply of PS5 and XB Series was the same as the supply of Switch. It would be very odd therefore for either PS5 or XB Series to have more supply than Switch in December
  • Yes Switch is also being affected by the chip shortage, but its using older parts and is therefore not as affected as the newer consoles are. It is also smaller and therefore easier to transport through a congested supply chain
  • While Switch is in its 5th year, it is still showing fairly strong sales that are not easy for a new console to hit.
But as you say, I guess we'll see
These are good points but consoles in their fifth year tend to slow down. The second holiday on the market is closer to peak.

I think if the PS5 and XS have enough stock, the Switch is going to take third position. There is a very good chance MS and Sony allotted more stock for December than November.
 

Woopah

Member
These are good points but consoles in their fifth year tend to slow down. The second holiday on the market is closer to peak.

I think if the PS5 and XS have enough stock, the Switch is going to take third position. There is a very good chance MS and Sony allotted more stock for December than November.
Its true that Switch is declining from its peaks while PS5 and XB Series are yet to reach it, but this was also true last month and Switch sold as much as both of them combined.

To put things into context, Switch in its fifth year is going to ship more than any PlayStation or Xbox platform as ever done in any single year (globally). So even though it is past its peak, its sales are going to be very very high. Add in the chip shortages and the US being a particularly strong market for Nintendo, and Switch being top in December is a fairly safe bet.

The bigger question is who will be able to produce more, Sony or Microsoft? Microsoft won November, but that's no guarantee hat they'll win December.
 
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MrFunSocks

Banned
These are good points but consoles in their fifth year tend to slow down. The second holiday on the market is closer to peak.

I think if the PS5 and XS have enough stock, the Switch is going to take third position. There is a very good chance MS and Sony allotted more stock for December than November.
The Switch is likely selling the 6th most consoles in a single year in history this year in its 5th year. More than any Playstation has ever sold in a year.

You’d probably be better off being a bit less confident in the Switch coming third lol.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
The Switch is likely selling the 6th most consoles in a single year in history this year in its 5th year. More than any Playstation has ever sold in a year.

You’d probably be better off being a bit less confident in the Switch coming third lol.
That's only because of Covid demand. If there's enough PS5's stocked it would probably blow by that number.
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
That's only because of Covid demand. If there's enough PS5's stocked it would probably blow by that number.
Oh so did the PS4 and Xbox One sell 25 million consoles each per year during Covid? The switch couldn’t possibly just be a good console that people want, could it? Oh no lol

You play the “if only” game all you want, the rest of us here will live in the real world.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
Oh so did the PS4 and Xbox One sell 25 million consoles each per year during Covid? The switch couldn’t possibly just be a good console that people want, could it? Oh no lol

You play the “if only” game all you want, the rest of us here will live in the real world.
They were old consoles at that point so I don't see the basis for comparison.
 

mckmas8808

Banned
So are you using physical game sales? I take it.

1) those cod figures aren't my numbers; they are from install base forum but if you want to see the calculations you can have a look at articles and tweets below from Chris at gi.biz

For FC6:
FC including digital sales - https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...k-at-no-1-after-oled-launch-uk-monthly-charts
FC first week - https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...ng-metroid-game-in-uk-history-uk-boxed-charts
Explainer: https://www.neogaf.com/threads/forz...s-no-1-uk-boxed-charts.1623811/post-265049801

COD:

First Week sales : https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...ysical-sales-continue-to-slow-uk-boxed-charts
Physical/Digital Splits:
Launch Sales including Digital
The Calculations:

Feel free to do your own calculations.


Deleted.
 
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