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November 2021 US NPD

I expected way more for all manufacturers, but this goes to show you how dire the supply situation is. And to think that the issue will last until 2023 at the least! This console generation may very well become the longest we have ever seen.
 
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yurinka

Member
They lowered their shipment forecast by a million consoles because of unprecedented shortage of supply.
Source? As far as I remember what Sony said in their most recent fiscal report was that their estimation remained unchanged (which was to slighly beat the gaming history launch aligned at that point record set by PS4) and previous to that they said they had secured the chips to achieve their fiscal year estimation.

I may be wrong, but the only one who said lowered their forecast was Bloomberg, who has a story of anti-Sony stories and even got publicly debunked by Sony in a previous similar claim.

It’s probably going to be hard for them to but their target based on these numbers. Doing 500k ish or less in November in the US is kind of ridiculous. Ps4 would do around a million during those months. And this is with ps4 production being basically halted. It’s a major shortage of parts killing momentum.
Yes, I think seeing these November shipments for USA I think it's going to be very hard for them to achieve the FY forecast. They already scaled back to the minimum the PS4 production since a month or so before PS5 release to make room for PS5 production, and since then it has been very small. They have been breaking sales records with PS5 (not the case of this November NPD), but I think that without this chips issue sales could have been way higher.
 

noshten

Member
92 million Switch shipped by the end of September. All companies are impacted by supply constraints, but Nintendo is less affected as they are using older parts. It's not that Nintendo is way better at procurement then the other two.

They used to provide digital but not anymore.

Switch sales this FY year will probably be more than what Sony and Microsoft combined are likely to sell(24M+), mainly because Switch's supply problems have to do with different factors compared to PS5/XS. Nintendo diversified it's supply chain outside of China back in 2019 when they started to produce Lite units in Vietnam, while they also added a production line in Malaysian factory at the end of 2020 which although not a huge investment does provide further risk mitigation.

Most of the supply chain problems Switch faced and made Nintendo revise their targets were linked with the country wide lock-down of Vietnam between July and September. Due to the size of the orders Nintendo is placing, the different parts it requires and the maturity of the Switch compared to the new consoles(Product Lifetime Cycle) it's much easier for Nintendo to meet demand and scale up production - outside of extreme conditions like the Vietnam lockdown.

Regardless of Nintendo revising it's targets - the FY H2 result they are expecting are very close to what they achieved last year and would be the 2nd best H2 since the launch of the Switch. The majority of the supply they are expecting is likely to have already started arriving in December. We are already seeing this with OLED units being far more easily attainable in Japan where we get weekly numbers and anecdotal retail reports.

The main thing to look out for is the FY Q1 - where they have Arceus slated for January, and a few decently sized third party exclusives like Triangle Strategy, Rune Factory 5, and likely another major 1st Party title ready for March(Kirby or Splatoon 3). Beyond that there is also supplemental demand of existing owners that are looking to upgrade to the OLED model, which is likely to be able to enable them hitting their best FY Q4 so far in the Switch's life.
 
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yurinka

Member
It's easy, bye bye to the target :messenger_tears_of_joy:
With these abysmal sales they'll have to cut it from 14.8m to 12-13m.
Although I guess they could make it up a bit during January-March. There's so much demand that they don't need the holiday season to sell whatever they can manufacture so if they can sort things out a bit for the next quarter they might recover some of the lost ground compared to targets during next quarter.
But it's unlikley, just like Nintendo they'll cut the forecast. Hopefully they can do better next year.
I think there's a monster demand for PS5s there seeing that new shipments have been selling out in minutes even if broke launch aligned records. So if as Ryan said while ago they really receive on time the chips they secured to be able to achieve their FY forecast, I think they may have a monster shipment during late December or during Jan-Mar 2023 and could achieve the numbers. A ton of people is waiting for PS5s and will get them when available independently of the month.

But I think it won't be the case, and that they will miss the goal. In any case, whenever they receive the chips, this or next FY year, they'll sell them super fast.
 
Spain numbers/estimates are also in.


Black Friday week is Nintendo Switch best week in Europe


In the week of November 22, more Nintendo Switch consoles and games were sold in the Netherlands and the rest of Europe than in any other week since the console's release*.

The Nintendo Switch was released in March 2017 and will soon enter its sixth year on the market. The Nintendo Switch family, which currently consists of the Nintendo Switch, Nintendo Switch Lite and Nintendo Switch - OLED Model - sold more hardware than ever in the week starting November 22, breaking the previous record set in November 2019.

Hardware sales were spurred by a limited-time bundle consisting of a Nintendo Switch console, a download code for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe , and a three-month individual membership to Nintendo Switch Online , which allows friends and family to play compatible games online together.

In addition, week after week, records were broken for Nintendo Switch software sales in Europe in November 2021. In the week of November 15, more Nintendo Switch games were sold across Europe than in any previous week in console history, a record only to be surpassed the following week.
 
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Batiman

Banned
Man I can’t believe I still don’t got an next gen console. I keep waiting till there readily available because I don’t want to make calls and race to be the first in an online waiting game. I think I’m gonna just give up and get a series S. I know I’ll regret it though. I should be able to preorder one
 
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Oh, and I should mention that SMT V appearing at 16 is excellent, especially that that probably doesnt include digital.
Why it wouldn't ? It's a Sega game, not a Nintendo one. Anyway, all the games for wich digital is not included are signed with an asterisk, and SMT V is not, so digital sales are clearly included
 
Any device is perfect for lockdown, but I think the Switch’s more family-centric appeal has been the winner here, especially as more people are staying indoors nowadays.

Like you said being stuck indoors with a decent sized family can be a pain. Having a switch you can enjoy without bothering anyone is perfect. No need to fight for the TV.
 

Deerock71

Member

america burn GIF
 

Woopah

Member
Switch sales this FY year will probably be more than what Sony and Microsoft combined are likely to sell(24M+), mainly because Switch's supply problems have to do with different factors compared to PS5/XS. Nintendo diversified it's supply chain outside of China back in 2019 when they started to produce Lite units in Vietnam, while they also added a production line in Malaysian factory at the end of 2020 which although not a huge investment does provide further risk mitigation.

Most of the supply chain problems Switch faced and made Nintendo revise their targets were linked with the country wide lock-down of Vietnam between July and September. Due to the size of the orders Nintendo is placing, the different parts it requires and the maturity of the Switch compared to the new consoles(Product Lifetime Cycle) it's much easier for Nintendo to meet demand and scale up production - outside of extreme conditions like the Vietnam lockdown.

Regardless of Nintendo revising it's targets - the FY H2 result they are expecting are very close to what they achieved last year and would be the 2nd best H2 since the launch of the Switch. The majority of the supply they are expecting is likely to have already started arriving in December. We are already seeing this with OLED units being far more easily attainable in Japan where we get weekly numbers and anecdotal retail reports.

The main thing to look out for is the FY Q1 - where they have Arceus slated for January, and a few decently sized third party exclusives like Triangle Strategy, Rune Factory 5, and likely another major 1st Party title ready for March(Kirby or Splatoon 3). Beyond that there is also supplemental demand of existing owners that are looking to upgrade to the OLED model, which is likely to be able to enable them hitting their best FY Q4 so far in the Switch's life.
Agreed, OLED supply looks way better in December than November, and unlike Sony and Microsoft Nintendo usually does better in December than November anyway. It'll be really interesting to see how Arceus affects their Q4 shipments, and although Nintendo has Triangle Strategy as a first part title for March 2022 I think Kirby could hit that month as well (I don't think Splatoon 3 comes out until Summer)

Why it wouldn't ? It's a Sega game, not a Nintendo one. Anyway, all the games for wich digital is not included are signed with an asterisk, and SMT V is not, so digital sales are clearly included
To build on what has already been said, its not just Nintendo that doesn't share digital data. Atlus and Sega don't share eShop data either. Matt has this useful table to explain who does and doesn't share digital:

 
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onesvenus

Member
You are still using Adobe digital online sales tracking as proof for something that it doesn’t
We don't have any other source, do we?
But you are right, it's not talking about "the most popular item during BF day" but about "the most popular DIGITAL item during BF day", is that better for you?

And btw, I'm not trying to spew any narrative. Before accusing people of that you should learn to read. You have posted two or three times, correcting other people, about how if the switch did 550k during BF, the XSS couldn't be the most sold when NPD didn't say that.
Now, about your narrative: Can you provide a source that contradicts the claim that the XSS was the most popular digital item during BF or should we take your word for granted?
 

Deerock71

Member
I really hope TPC does not drop the ball with Arceus. That's the first Pokemon title I've been really amped up for since the originals.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
We don't have any other source, do we?
But you are right, it's not talking about "the most popular item during BF day" but about "the most popular DIGITAL item during BF day", is that better for you?

And btw, I'm not trying to spew any narrative. Before accusing people of that you should learn to read. You have posted two or three times, correcting other people, about how if the switch did 550k during BF, the XSS couldn't be the most sold when NPD didn't say that.
Now, about your narrative: Can you provide a source that contradicts the claim that the XSS was the most popular digital item during BF or should we take your word for granted?
Do the math.

Switch at BF almost outsold Series in the month... there is no chance to have Series have sold more in BF.
You know there is stock for Xbox outside BF.
 
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onesvenus

Member
Do the math.

Switch at BF almost outsold Series in the month... there is no chance to have Series have sold more in BF.
You know there is stock for Xbox outside BF.
Again, do you have switch numbers for BF? You talk like you do but the only thing we have is BF week Switch numbers vs a BF day XSS estimation. It could also be that they were breaking the Switch per SKUs.
You keep telling other people to stop with their narrative but you keep with your own without any data supporting it.
Fanboys gotta fanboy.
 
Zhuge's twit and Nintendo numbers+ simple math.
1.13m Switch and PS5+Xbox barely matching that combined.
~600k for Xbox and ~500k for PS5 becomes an obvious guess.
More like 700k Xbox Series and 400k PS5, as Switch overtook Playstation as the highest $ selling console of the year.

PS5 sales were abysmal.


1130k Switch at an ASP of $290 (OLED stock was nearly non existent) is $330m
500k PS5 at an ASP of $490 (less Digital stock than usual) is $245m

The GAP before November was above $100m in Favor of PS5
 

Lognor

Banned
I was initially disappointed to see SMT V so far down the list, but then I read Matt's comment. Highest launch month dollar sales for a SMT game. That's awesome! Sounds like SMT IV (or SMT IV A) may have sold more copies, but with the higher cost of SMT V it produced more revenue. Still a nice result! And the SMT V result doesn't include digital.

And happy to see Forza 5 chart so high, even with its inclusion in Game Pass.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
Again, do you have switch numbers for BF? You talk like you do but the only thing we have is BF week Switch numbers vs a BF day XSS estimation. It could also be that they were breaking the Switch per SKUs.
You keep telling other people to stop with their narrative but you keep with your own without any data supporting it.
Fanboys gotta fanboy.
Indeed... just keep saying Series S was the best selling console in BF... maybe next year it become true.
I just tried to explain what you guys didn't read on the article lol

I prefer to be a fanboy that somebody that pretends to not be with false claims.
Thanks for the praise.
 
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DaGwaphics

Member
Here's what I don't understand. This isn't purely directed at you but anyone who might know. Why is Nintendo able to produce more units while Sony and MS can't?

Switch is old hardware using a silicone node with little contention. They would still have contention on their ram, but probably not like Xbox/PS. The Switch's lesser onboard storage probably helps too.
 

ethomaz

Banned
More like 700k Xbox Series and 400k PS5, as Switch overtook Playstation as the highest $ selling console of the year.

PS5 sales were abysmal.


1130k Switch at an ASP of $290 (OLED stock was nearly non existent) is $330m
500k PS5 at an ASP of $490 (less Digital stock than usual) is $245m

The GAP before November was above $100m in Favor of PS5
Switch already closed the gap in October.
It was lower than $100m in PS5 favor.

In any case $ estimates doesn't always align with units because NPD uses the actual sold price and not the MSPR.... of course in case of PS5 and Series X probably most brought at MSPR.

And Switch OLED non-existent is not that accurate too... it had sales... so if it was 100k, 200k, or more it affect the dollar sales to up.
 
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Elios83

Member
More like 700k Xbox Series and 400k PS5, as Switch overtook Playstation as the highest $ selling console of the year.

PS5 sales were abysmal.


1130k Switch at an ASP of $290 (OLED stock was nearly non existent) is $330m
500k PS5 at an ASP of $490 (less Digital stock than usual) is $245m

The GAP before November was above $100m in Favor of PS5.
This seems hard to believe because in Japan Switch OLED stock has not been non-existent at all so treating it as a non factor in average price....I don't think there's strong evidence to do that.
Also Sony sold 500k+ PS5 in September and ~300k in October.
Seems hard to believe that (also having shipments to Japan basically halted) they could only sell 400k unless there was a major disruption at some supplier.

In any case both numbers are incredibly disappointing and they need to do something about it. Microsoft released their two biggest games this quarter for example and with these numbers it's a huge missed opportunity.
 
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This seems hard to believe because in Japan Switch OLED stock has not been non-existent at all so treating it as a non factor in average price....I don't think there's strong evidence to do that.
Also Sony sold 500k+ PS5 in September and ~300k in October.
Seems hard to believe that (also having shipments to Japan basically halted) they could only sell 400k unless there was a major disruption at some supplier.

In any case both numbers are incredibly disappointing and they need to do something about it. Microsoft released their two biggest games this quarter for example and with these numbers it's a huge missed opportunity.

That person has access to the actual NPD reports and also fit what I've been seeing.
OLED restocks in the US didn't happen until December.
 

Elios83

Member

That person has access to the actual NPD reports and also fit what I've been seeing.
OLED restocks in the US didn't happen until December.

Welfare from Resetera?
He doesn't have any access to NPD sales, he even asked Matt Piscatella on Twitter today who was second.
I cannot see other posts in the link you posted because I'm not a user of that message board.


Btw it's kinda pointless to discuss about this, these shortages were ugly and they were both losers. I seriously hope they can both fix this situation next year.
 
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Welfare from Resetera?
He doesn't have any access to NPD sales, he even asked Matt Piscatella on Twitter today who was second.
I cannot see other posts in the link you posted because I'm not a user of that message board.


Btw it's kinda pointless to discuss about this, these shortages were ugly and they were both losers. I seriously hope they can both fix this situation next year.
No.
That's not what I linked to.
The comment about OLED crashing this month compared to October, where it sold 314k.
 

Elios83

Member
No.
That's not what I linked to.
The comment about OLED crashing this month compared to October, where it sold 314k.

Couldn't read it because... :
  • Welcome!
    As an unregistered user, you will only be able to see the first post of a thread.
:messenger_grinning_sweat:
Btw in any case the situation doesn't change much, these shortages created huge missed opportunities for everyone and they seriously need to address them next year.
 
Couldn't read it because... :
  • Welcome!
    As an unregistered user, you will only be able to see the first post of a thread.
:messenger_grinning_sweat:
Btw in any case the situation doesn't change much, these shortages created huge missed opportunities for everyone and they seriously need to address them next year.
Oh okay. Didn't knew that.
I better Screenshot the next time.
 

elliot5

Member
y'all those Series S best selling console articles or whatever were comparing against the Switch OLED, not the switch combined. It's possible the S itself outsold the base / lite / oled individual numbers, but def not combined. Doesn't seem like it anyway
 

MrFunSocks

Banned
BEAST! Switch going to be the best selling console of 2 consecutive generations at this rate which is absolutely remarkable. Left the PS4 for dead last gen and is now destroying all this gen. Absolutely insane. That PS2 record is going down unless Nintendo for some reason decide that they don't like selling consoles and making bank. A price drop to USD$199 and no successor announcement and they'll probably sell another 100 million of them with ease.

Also good to see the "enthusiast forum" concern for COD yet again proving that you should ignore the general consensus on places like this. All that hand wringing and concern about the physical sales numbers dropping lots in this almost entirely digital world, yet as expected, it's still the best selling game lol.

Also all the concern and narratives about Game Pass killing game sales, yet Forza Horizon 5 charts only behind 3 of the biggest franchises in the industry lol. Basically if there is overwhelming concern from a certain group of "enthusiasts" on here, there is nothing to worry about.

Series S doing exactly what it was made to do too - be available and be cheap. The switch isn't sold out yet sells insanely well, yet people think that the Series S not being instantly sold out all the time means no one wants it lol. Loving all the constant downplaying attempts by the usual suspects lol. Sony coming last in the NPDs for the biggest month of the year really got them shook.
 
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DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Series S doing exactly what it was made to do too - be available and be cheap. The switch isn't sold out yet sells insanely well, yet people think that the Series S not being instantly sold out all the time means no one wants it lol. Loving all the constant downplaying attempts by the usual suspects lol. Sony coming last in the NPDs for the biggest month of the year really got them shook.

No one is shaken.

The problem with Xbox fans on this forum is that they consider facts "downplaying". I don't know how many times Xbox fans on here were upset whenever supply issues were brought up. It's a fact and many didn't want to acknowledge it.
 

Hezekiah

Banned
BEAST! Switch going to be the best selling console of 2 consecutive generations at this rate which is absolutely remarkable. Left the PS4 for dead last gen and is now destroying all this gen. Absolutely insane. That PS2 record is going down unless Nintendo for some reason decide that they don't like selling consoles and making bank. A price drop to USD$199 and no successor announcement and they'll probably sell another 100 million of them with ease.

Also good to see the "enthusiast forum" concern for COD yet again proving that you should ignore the general consensus on places like this. All that hand wringing and concern about the physical sales numbers dropping lots in this almost entirely digital world, yet as expected, it's still the best selling game lol.

Also all the concern and narratives about Game Pass killing game sales, yet Forza Horizon 5 charts only behind 3 of the biggest franchises in the industry lol. Basically if there is overwhelming concern from a certain group of "enthusiasts" on here, there is nothing to worry about.

Series S doing exactly what it was made to do too - be available and be cheap. The switch isn't sold out yet sells insanely well, yet people think that the Series S not being instantly sold out all the time means no one wants it lol. Loving all the constant downplaying attempts by the usual suspects lol. Sony coming last in the NPDs for the biggest month of the year really got them shook.
More warring, after last week. Seriously?
 
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