So we are leaving 2022 now? The 9.6 is for 2022.
Uh, I was talking about VR in 2021 because IIRC the leaked CADE figures for MS gaming services was for 2021. Or it could've been FY 2021 which would have gone up to June 2022 calendar.
From what I'm seeing, Meta had a target of 6.5 Quest 2 sold for calendar 2022. There's also this report
stating they had sold 14.8 million Quest 2s since launch, so if 8.7 million sold in 2021, and the unit launched in 2020 (October). I can't find 2020 sales numbers, but between that and Jan - June 2022, some 6.1 million headsets would have been sold. This report mentions that 1.098 million Quest 2 units were sold inn 2020, that leaves ~ 5 million for the first six months of 2022.
Even using that figure, at $399 each that equals ~ $2 billion in revenue off the hardware for Q1 & Q2 of 2022. The CADE figures for MS services might've been referring to their FY 2021, so from June 1 2021 to May 31 2022. I'm not even going to bother saying how much of the $2.9 billion was from calendar 2021 or calendar 2022, but let's just be unrealistic and say 75% of it was from Q1 & Q2 2022 (realistically, considering 2022 was slow for GamePass and their big releases were in 2021, and if Game Pass makes up most of that $2.9 billion figure (again just for this example), then something like at LEAST
60% of that $2.9 billion would have been from 2021 calendar). That's $2.175 billion, and let's again be SUPER
generous and say Game Pass is 80% of that (not realistic, but since you seem to not accept otherwise); that's $1.74 billion.
As you can clearly see, ~ $2 billion is a bigger number than $1.74 billion, and that's not accounting for sales revenue from the Quest Store (for software), which would push Quest 2 revenue for even just the Jan - June period of 2022 clearly above $2 billion and that much ahead of Game Pass. We don't have any numbers to Game Pass revenue from July - Dec 2022, so I won't cover that period, but I have also NOT included that period in these Quest 2 revenue figures, either.
You still haven't addressed the issue as shown here, you're admitting what revenue comes with gamepass and only including revenue that's related to VR. We don't know how much each individual category contributes per user, but we know Gamepass is the Sub of varying lengths depending on the person+Game discounts+exclusive offers for DLC, MTX so on that also contributes.
What does this even mean? How many categories do you need for a headset? There's only one kind of Quest 2 headset, everyone who buys it is buying the same headset. They're all buying it directly from a store either in-person or online. The Quest Store sells digital software. That's the way software is provided there. You want software for Quest, you download it from the store. Free games don't count towards the software revenue.
Everything you're describing as a conditional affecting a Game Pass sub actually hurts your point. Game discounts are for games otherwise being purchased which would count towards software sales revenue, not services revenue. DLC & MTX purchased would be in their own category, similar to how Sony does it (I'm assuming). That would not be lumped in to subscription services revenue.
You are comparing a bare bones sub based on only ONE possible outcome (people have varying sub lengths) to everything includes on the VR side.
No, I'm comparing Game Pass (based on leaked services data, so it doesn't matter if we're talking year-round subs or 1 month-only subs or whatever) revenue to Quest 2 hardware/software revenue. I admit I might've gotten some of the timeline in the other posts a bit off but I've adjusted and accounted for that in this post, and my point still stands:
Quest 2 still made more revenue than Game Pass for the 2022 period we can safely compare (January - June).
Maybe Game Pass made more revenue July - December, maybe it didn't. But, we can't even speculate on that because we don't have any games services revenue figures from Microsoft for those two quarters, AFAIK. Also let it sink in that Meta, friggin' Meta, is more transparent about at least their software sales revenue than Microsoft, and Quest 2 is really their first foray into an actual non-mobile gaming platform. That's quite embarrassing to consider if I were at Microsoft thinking about it.
Your comparison isn't remotely fair.
It's fair, and realistic. You just don't like it because it's not big-upping Game Pass as "the future" or whatever. Well, we're talking revenue which means we're talking numbers. I'm only going by what the numbers say, and what guesses/estimates I'm making, I actually try to be fair, but realistic.
Unlike certain websites that think 'fairness" is in constantly overestimating a certain platform's numbers while constantly underestimating other platform's numbers despite more credible sources consistently proving them wrong. Yes, I'm talking about VGChartz.
And the fact that the VR industry is mostly driven by one device in decline with as the thread says, a big percent decline from 2021, is not really a healthy market.
So I guess we're going to pretend supply shortages aren't a factor? No it's simply due to demand? OK.
Tell me then, how does a subscription service that's technically available on hundreds of millions of devices, see stagnation on its chief platform and absolute sub growth on another device that isn't growing from a large pool to begin with, if the only barrier for accessing it is having an internet connection, paying pocket change per month (even free some some folks), and servers being online (which they almost always are)?
Answer me that and try saying it has nothing to do with lacking demand, if demand is the main factor you might be considering in stating why Quest 2 sales were lower in 2022 vs 2021.
And remember, you originally said VR got more revenue than subs, without considering how many big sub services there are and how much revenue they generate. You only have one major revenue generator in 2022 for the WHOLE VR industry.
Doesn't matter. And, I did go back and include PS Now and NSO+, even Luna and Stadia. The only one I've left out is Apple Arcade, because that's clearly mobile-centric and we're not talking about the mobile market here.
If anything, you should be concerned that revenue for Netflix-style gaming sub services COMBINED
is only at most maybe slightly better than revenue from a SINGLE
product in an industry with multiple product options. That should show you how small the current market for subscription gaming services actually is. I'm not saying it will remain that way, but going off revenue, that's where it's at right now.
And yes, the VR market could absolutely stand to grow, too. Hopefully that's what devices like PSVR2 and Apple's rumored VR/AR headset can help to do. My entire argument is basically to balk at MS's reasoning for not supporting gaming VR with a product of their own because of it being "niche", as if insinuating Netflix-style sub services are a much bigger, non-niche market.
When if we look at the actual revenue between the two, the entire sub services market in summation is at best about on par or only slightly ahead the revenue from a singular "niche" VR gaming device. Therefore calling Microsoft's statements on gaming VR, BS. Because that's what they are.