• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

[Opinion] April 2023 is the beginning of the end for Xbox as we know it.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Daneel Elijah

Gold Member
I get it. System is a bit like PC where on Steam if you check most played games, most of them sound unknown. Yet have dedicated fanbase that keep playing day in and out.

This is in complete contrast to how PlayStation market it's games with huge upfront hype. Makes you interested in playing them.

Personally, not a big fan of getting hyped for a game. I don't judge a game till I start moving the stick.

As for their marketing being US centric, yes, that's true. That's what they choose to be. And I am ok with that. No company needs to market me anything.
I agree, but with a small caveat. Hype is no just the huge marketing campaigns. It can be the simple word of mouth that happen naturally. I learned of Vampires survivors here on Neogaf. It was enough for me to try it. This needs to come from somewhere. And Xbox not pushing at all in Europe have consequences in that regard. But this is another discussion.
 

Wulfer

Member
My issue with acquisition is the talent suppression and only making games for a certain platform.

Rare was great before MS buy-out. But after that, they did their stuff and couldn't replicate their past.

Bethesda, bioware and cdpr made exclusive content to Xbox, which could have put them at risk of acquisition. We got Skyrim, fallout, witcher 3, cyberpunk 2077 and bioware games. All these games become huge due to multiplatform.

We wouldn't have gotten these great on other devices had MS acquired these studios early.

Now that MS bought Bethesda, we won't see those games on other platforms, since they will work on exclusive games.

It's a loss for gamers at the expanse of exclusive content.
I'll argue that Bioware was better when they were exclusive to Xbox 360. Mass Effect was a 100 times better game before the EA buyout. After that it was multiplatform watered down games so, no your argument doesn't hold water. Mass Effect 1 and 2 were the best in the 4 game series.

Witcher 2 didn't come to PS3 because the port and man hours to make the game work didn't add up. CDPR wouldn't do the port if it wasn't as good as the Xbox 360. (Another fairy tale busted - CDPR did want to do the port). CDPR wanted to do the port but, couldn't make the game work due to the company size, funds and a Sony policy. MS didn't stop CDPR from making a port Sony did.

"If we had 300 people here," Platkow-Gilewski dreamt, "that would be a way easier decision."
"Badowski's comment about the potential PS3 version of The Witcher 2 needing new content to pass concept submission may refer to Sony's policy of requesting new features for PS3 games that have already launched on other platforms.
The Enhanced Edition of The Witcher 2 on Xbox 360."

https://www.eurogamer.net/will-there-be-a-ps3-version-of-the-witcher-2

Your opinion of RARE is yours. Are they better? Are they worse? RARE lost being a platformer when most of the Studio moved to Kinect. Rare had to refined itself so, they started Sea of Thieves. SOT is pretty amazing and there's nothing out on the console market that's quite like it. Tell me when Skull and Bones is shipping again???
 
Last edited:
ZWXfeyP.png

Shareholders agree with you.
That numbers are because of their primary business.
 
The only thing I don't get about Xbox is how they buy so many studios and then those studios don't release any games for years when they released various games on a year-on-year basis before acquisition.
MS was always just an asterisk, never really a factor(Outside of the 7th gen, the only time they were truly competitive).
They always had a high stake approach though, Xbox 1 lost money, and paid publishers a ton for better versions and free DLC, X360 spent billions course-correcting the RRoD which recent reports say they knew of early on; Xbox One had a butchered launch, also cost them quite a bit of money, then Xbox Series and the losing upt to $200 per console remarks.

Of course it also made money, but it seems a bit like a low return investment (against how much their competitors invest) at this point. On paper the investment should make them market leaders.

This said, I think with good leadership, good marketing and a bit of luck they can recreate the lightning in a bottle that Xbox 360 was. But something is failing. It's like xbox as a brand consistently manages to be less than the sum of it's parts, just underwhelming.

But Kudos for them for not giving up, Google would have dropped the ball ages ago.
 
Last edited:

GarlicPrawn

Neo Member
If we're going with the mid-gen route again I'm just going to keep my Series X for the odd console-only GP game, and pick up a $1500-ish PC. I'm just tired of the console nonsense.

That being said I don't want a case that looks like I got it at a pride parade. Calm down on the RGB people.
Thinking the same here, but the state of pc ports is kind of worrying me. If I spend 1500-2000 i want an experience without much compromise.
 
After 360 Microsoft needed games , like ps but all we got was promises that they are coming.
I bought a series x for Forza Motorsport only and 2 years in I still haven't gotten the game I want.
There is not a single blockbuster game on the horizon I can bet redfall will fail aswell
Xbox needs a couple of 9/10 10/10 games to get things going otherwise this gen will be more painful than Xbox one era
 

RGB'D

Member
The quarterly revenue numbers, especially when compared with previous generations, can be very misleading. I'd personally not pay too much attention only to the revenue number, because:
  • The gaming industry itself has grown in terms of userbase, which means higher revenue generation after generation.
  • Games have become more expensive.
  • MTXs have become huge, leading to inflated revenue.
  • More importantly, Xbox has increased its studios from 5 to 23. They combined the revenue of those 18 studios and added to Microsoft's balance sheet, including games with live-service elements and recurring revenue, e.g., Minecraft, Elder Scrolls, Fallout, etc.
Most importantly, we don't know the operating expenditure required to generate $16 billion of yearly Xbox revenue.
Gaming peaked during COVID quarantines but has since shrunk in comparison. That was an artificial increase
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Gaming peaked during COVID quarantines but has since shrunk in comparison. That was an artificial increase
Not compared to 2020 or 2021. I was talking to 2006-2012, since the Xbox 360 days. The gaming industry has grown in the last 10-15 years.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
It’s scary but selling individual games honestly won’t work much longer unless you’re the biggest dev with the biggest IPs.

I never bought indie games in the past, I heard people talk about them but never bought anything besides a few hyped ones like Braid and The Witness. I simply played the biggest AAA games with the highest scores and skipped the rest. It was enough for my time and cost me enough.

And today I never buy indies because I get enough through Gamepass (and PS+ Premium because it’s very similar but rarely talked about), I don’t even buy AAA games unless I have to, if I can wait I know they’ll be on a subscription library,

The big difference now is that I now play small stuff like Loop Hero as well as the mid sized ones like Scorn and The Ascent and the huge ones with mid user reception like Wo Long. I play a ton of games. I think my 2022 stats on Xbox showed that I played like 90 titles or something like that.

Would I keep playing small indies and the mid sized games without high scores without Gamepass?
Nope.
I would just go back to what I did before and play Uncharted, Gears, Forza, GT etc and skip the rest. Would be enough for my time and would cost me enough.

So I see subscription libraries as an inevitable evolution, it’s what will keep anything less that AAA alive. It’s just like what has happened to TV Shows. When did you last buy a TV Show box? Maybe some early GOT season? When did you buy a TV Show box for a less hyped show? I have a shelf full of season boxes but it was many many years since I bought something now and less popular shows was never bought.

Would a TV Show outside of any streaming service even survive today? I doubt it. I know I wouldn’t watch it anyhow, probably wouldn’t even know it existed.

I think that’s where gaming is heading, like it or not, and it can’t be stopped.

The devs who don’t adapt and evolve will disappear. The big ones will survive because people will keep on buying the big 10/10 games, for awhile. The Tunic devs and similar small devs could survive with high enough scores on their games, but one wrong step and they’ll be gone, the masses won’t bother checking if the game is good, they’ll look at the scores and go nah.

With a subscription library more will check out your game, because there is no investment, it’s just a press of a button and some download time. Like I could say that Loop Hero is one of the most unique games I’ve played in years (it really is) and I know someone out there will go hit that install button on Gamepass, because why not?

When looking deeper into the crystal ball I see episodic content being a big thing within 5 years. Could evolve from something like No Man’s Sky and Forza Horizon where the core gameplay is similar but new things are added once a year or so. The static 10 year gigantic full game releases will slowly fade away and evolve into episodic games as a service games. Us oldies won’t be around to witness it fully but our kids will, and they won’t care because that’s what they’re already used to in everything else they do and just means less waiting for new content. And retro gaming won’t exist, the Commodore 64 cassette library will outlive what I’ll have on my Xbox.
Not necessarily. If a game is good, it can find a way to sell a lot of copies -- given that it has equal opportunities as other indie games (i.e., none of the games are on Game Pass or PS Plus day one).

There are many indie no-name games that found success:
  • Enter the Gungeon
  • Binding of Isaac
  • Hollow Knight
  • Hades
  • Stardew Valley
We just had a thread for Little Nightmares and the fact that the 2 LN games have sold over 12 million copies!

 

Fredrik

Member
Not necessarily. If a game is good, it can find a way to sell a lot of copies -- given that it has equal opportunities as other indie games (i.e., none of the games are on Game Pass or PS Plus day one).

There are many indie no-name games that found success:
  • Enter the Gungeon
  • Binding of Isaac
  • Hollow Knight
  • Hades
  • Stardew Valley
We just had a thread for Little Nightmares and the fact that the 2 LN games have sold over 12 million copies!

Those are a couple years now, the subscription era has just started getting up to speed now, things are going to change fast the coming years.

I bought Hollow Knight too, won’t buy Silksong though, and you know why. Yeah, the Gamepass release.

I absolutely get the consequences but it’s too late to change now. A whole generation of kids has already grown up thinking it’s strange to buy music CDs and Blu-ray movies and those growing up will think it’s strange to buy games.

Tbh I’d say Nintendo is the one most likely to face brutal consequences, they make great games but they’re dinosaurs in every other way, and being a dinosaur is less optimal when things evolve.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
Just sonys shares post their earnings call
Yes. It's not due to the PlayStation division, if anything that's one of like two (or is it there) divisions within Sony that keeps propping them up.

Sonys shares dropped because they didn't meet the analyst's expectations, but that wasn't due to PlayStation but to their mobile and pictures divisions. And it's not like they lost, they just didn't make as much as was projected.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Lol
Xbox generated 3,1 billion revenue in services and content
Sony generated 4,1 billion revenue in services and content

:messenger_tears_of_joy::messenger_tears_of_joy:

DOOM AND GLOOM!
And? It only shows that subscription services constitute a small, almost minuscule, amount of revenue in the gaming divisions and are clearly NOT as important as people make them out to be.

I wonder why you didn't use the entire division revenue?
  • Xbox Quarterly Revenue = $3.59 billion (decreased by 4%)
  • PS Quarterly Revenue = $8.11 billion (increased by 61%)
L*][*N*K L*][*N*K ^ numbers.
 
Last edited:
OP I just forwarded your assessment to Microsoft, and they were impressed with your business acumen and want to bring you on as an executive of the Xbox division. :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 

NickFire

Member
This. People are too simple minded sometimes and just look at platform totals. They miss the forest for the trees, OP included. All you need to ask yourself is if Microsoft makes more money as a platform holder than they would as a publisher. And the answer is a resounding yes, even if their platform gets outsold by Sony and Nintendo’s platform.

Obviously this changes if the Xbox platform nosedives and sells abysmally, but no rational person expects that to happen.
What do they make in gaming profit compared to largest pubs currently? What would they lose and what would they gain from expanding market further?

I don’t know either answers. But mtx sure makes it feel less obvious than 20 years ago.
 
Those are a couple years now, the subscription era has just started getting up to speed now, things are going to change fast the coming years.

I bought Hollow Knight too, won’t buy Silksong though, and you know why. Yeah, the Gamepass release.

I absolutely get the consequences but it’s too late to change now. A whole generation of kids has already grown up thinking it’s strange to buy music CDs and Blu-ray movies and those growing up will think it’s strange to buy games.

Tbh I’d say Nintendo is the one most likely to face brutal consequences, they make great games but they’re dinosaurs in every other way, and being a dinosaur is less optimal when things evolve.
Whole generation of XBOX customers stop buying games. Sony and Nintendo customers know buying a few games they actually want is better than a thousands free games they don't want. They know that because that is already the case with Free To Play games.

Cheap games can't get any cheaper than literally free, so when you spend money you use it to get stuff that isn't a mess of microtransactions. People are being trained to vote with their wallet outside Xbox.
 

Fredrik

Member
Whole generation of XBOX customers stop buying games. Sony and Nintendo customers know buying a few games they actually want is better than a thousands free games they don't want. They know that because that is already the case with Free To Play games.

Cheap games can't get any cheaper than literally free, so when you spend money you use it to get stuff that isn't a mess of microtransactions. People are being trained to vote with their wallet outside Xbox.
PS+ Extra and Premium is Gamepass. The ball is already in motion. There is a difference in that Sony’s 1st party game catalogue releases are delayed but we’re at 6 months now going by HFW and that’s enough to wait to get some games for free. Go check the thread about people buying less games on PS, the ball is already rolling.

And to be honest we’re already getting trained by the whole industry to not rush in day 1 because everything needs patches, you’ll play a better game if you wait. Meanwhile the PS+ delayed releases needs to arrive sooner because the service will simply look bad compared to Gamepass if you’re just paying for LTTP releases on one service. Too many have both consoles and both services so there is already an expectation how things should be to be worth the subscription fee. If they don’t change the subscription count will drop. It would be like Apple Music having delayed album releases and Spotify don’t. Can’t compete like that.

Nintendo aren’t doing this yet but they’re not immune to an ever evolving market. They’re already at a point where those who own all platforms probably won’t choose to go with the Nintendo version because of weaker hardware, it won’t help if you can get the same game on a subscription service elsewhere. They have their own releases but how long can they survive on only those?
 
Last edited:
Just last I heard Starfield was going to be a disaster at launch but this was like in Jan or maybe Feb and I haven't asked about it since then

And by hot I don't mean in a good way

Release it broken or delay the game.

Neither is going to be good for discussion here.

Best scenario is to release the game during the holidays and not have it be broken. But this a Bethesda game they usually have issues at launch.
 

Fredrik

Member
Release it broken or delay the game.

Neither is going to be good for discussion here.

Best scenario is to release the game during the holidays and not have it be broken. But this a Bethesda game they usually have issues at launch.
I don’t care if it’s running at 10fps on Series X but I’ll be forever pissed if they release it broken on PC, I’d rather take a 3 year delay, been waiting so many years already, being 47 or 50 when playing it won’t matter, just give me a nice first playthrough.
 
Nintendo aren’t doing this yet but they’re not immune to an ever evolving market. They’re already at a point where those who own all platforms probably won’t choose to go with the Nintendo version because of weaker hardware, it won’t help if you can get the same game on a subscription service elsewhere. They have their own releases but how long can they survive on only those?
You can only get Nintendo games on Nintendo hardware. That is why it is the ideal 2nd console, and why Xbox comes third.

As for how long they can survive? They have survived much longer than Xbox, that's for sure. You can make fun of Nintendo all you want, that wouldn't change the fact that they are the bedrock of gaming for multiple generations now.
 
Last edited:
I don’t care if it’s running at 10fps on Series X but I’ll be forever pissed if they release it broken on PC, I’d rather take a 3 year delay, been waiting so many years already, being 47 or 50 when playing it won’t matter, just give me a nice first playthrough.
May The Fourth Be With You Do It GIF by Star Wars
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Release it broken or delay the game.

Neither is going to be good for discussion here.

Best scenario is to release the game during the holidays and not have it be broken.
Agreed. But to be fair, they have already delayed the game because they want to fix it and release an optimized version.
But this a Bethesda game they usually have issues at launch.
Not saying you're using it as an excuse, but I've seen people doing that. "Well, it's Bethesda; it will have bugs, and that's fine." "Bugs are the charm of Bethesda's games."

In 2023, past history should not be an excuse for a game that has been delayed multiple times. I hope they deliver a perfectly playable and relatively bug-free experience to gamers.
 
Agreed. But to be fair, they have already delayed the game because they want to fix it and release an optimized version.

Not saying you're using it as an excuse, but I've seen people doing that. "Well, it's Bethesda; it will have bugs, and that's fine." "Bugs are the charm of Bethesda's games."

In 2023, past history should not be an excuse for a game that has been delayed multiple times. I hope they deliver a perfectly playable and relatively bug-free experience to gamers.

I meant more along the lines that it's doubtful it will release without any issues. Not saying its fine because it isn't but its to be expected.
 

bender

What time is it?
Verse 1:
That's great Phil Spencer, Xbox's chief,
Gaming's changing fast, what's the latest beef?
Games are coming, exclusives galore,
Xbox Game Pass, what's the next score?

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Verse 2:
Halo Infinite, Forza Horizon 5,
Bethesda's here, ready to thrive,
Xbox Series X, Game Pass on PC,
The future's bright, can't you see?

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Verse 3:
Xcloud, streaming games on the fly,
Xbox app on my phone, I can't deny,
The gaming world's evolving fast,
Phil Spencer's leadership, built to last.

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Outro:
So raise a controller, let's celebrate,
Xbox's reign, it's never too late,
Phil Spencer, the MVP,
Xbox's future, as far as we can see.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I meant more along the lines that it's doubtful it will release without any issues. Not saying its fine because it isn't but its to be expected.
Oh yeah I got what you were saying -- that it is kind of inevitable that Starfield will be bug free. I agree.

I was referring to other people who I have seen using it as an excuse and giving Bethesda a pass if it has lots of bugs, saying that "it's not new; Bethesda games always have bugs." That would only continue this trend of getting flawed products from Bethesda, where they use the console population to beta test the game for them for free, and the PC community to essentially fix the game with mods.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Verse 1:
That's great Phil Spencer, Xbox's chief,
Gaming's changing fast, what's the latest beef?
Games are coming, exclusives galore,
Xbox Game Pass, what's the next score?

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Verse 2:
Halo Infinite, Forza Horizon 5,
Bethesda's here, ready to thrive,
Xbox Series X, Game Pass on PC,
The future's bright, can't you see?

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Verse 3:
Xcloud, streaming games on the fly,
Xbox app on my phone, I can't deny,
The gaming world's evolving fast,
Phil Spencer's leadership, built to last.

Chorus:
It's the end of the world as we know it,
And I feel fine,
Xbox is leading the way,
Phil Spencer's on the front line.

Outro:
So raise a controller, let's celebrate,
Xbox's reign, it's never too late,
Phil Spencer, the MVP,
Xbox's future, as far as we can see.
What prompt did you use? 😛
 
Oh yeah I got what you were saying -- that it is kind of inevitable that Starfield will be bug free. I agree.

I was referring to other people who I have seen using it as an excuse and giving Bethesda a pass if it has lots of bugs, saying that "it's not new; Bethesda games always have bugs." That would only continue this trend of getting flawed products from Bethesda, where they use the console population to beta test the game for them for free, and the PC community to essentially fix the game with mods.

I do agree that Bethesda needs to do something to fix their technical issues. I believe they have an engine that causes a lot of problems so maybe they need to change to a different one. I'm not sure why they stick with it but I'm sure they have their reasons.
 

Fredrik

Member
You can only get Nintendo games on Nintendo hardware. That is why it is the ideal 2nd console, and why Xbox comes third.

As for how long they can survive? They have survived much longer than Xbox, that's for sure. You can make fun of Nintendo all you want, that wouldn't change the fact that they are the bedrock of gaming for multiple generations now.
Doesn’t matter. Things change. SNES was my main console but today I only have a Switch as you say as a secondary console. And my kids were classic ”What’s an Xbox?” kids, they only played on Nintendo consoles, Xbox literally didn’t exist in their eyes. But now they have their own Xbox accounts and check out Gamepass because of the bigger library of games than they would ever have by buying everything. Nintendo can’t stand still in this fast moving industry any more than anyone else.

There used to be a problem with too few family oriented games on Xbox, on PS as well, this was a big advantage for Nintendo. But kids grow and now they play different games.

However, I’d say it’s the Netflix and Spotify effect more than the Gamepass effect. The younger generation don’t care about actually owning the content, ask a teenager if they own a music CD and you’ll likely get a laugh as the response. Games will be the same. And to be brutally honest, most of us here are dinosaurs. It doesn’t matter what we think is good for the industry, in 10 years we’re just old people screaming at the clouds.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom