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[CertifiedKiwi]

Japan is a shrinking market literally-lowest birth rate in the world. Its kinda inevitable for company like Sony to shift focus to other markets

 

[ItsTheNew]

I'd say japanese games are in a massive decline with me. They're occupying the A and AA space and doing a not so great job.

 

[Bodomism]

Japan is a shrinking market literally-lowest birth rate in the world. Its kinda inevitable for company like Sony to shift focus to other markets

Japan YTD 2021 - 1.45M hardware sold
UK YTD 2021 - 0.35M hardware sold

 

[Azelover]

Yes and it does better in the rest of the world, so what?

It has been said for a long time, that trends that start in Japan are often reflected in the rest of the world.

I haven't seen it for a while, but if you're oldschool you might be familiar with this "saying".

 

[yurinka]

Yes 299B was based on the Famtisu report of only retail sales. As far as I'm aware, publishers don't share their digital data with any Japanese trackers (unlike say the US, where NPD gets digital data from most publishers). Does statisa say where it gets its data from and does it have anything from beyond 2017?

Statista's source is behind a paywall (I don't pay). Nielsen, Newzoo, Superdata and so on get them from the publishers, who also are their customers. I assume Statista's source should be one of them.

Mobile definitely played a part but I don't think it tells the full story. From the decline from 3DS to DS yes mobile played a part. But Vita selling less than the PSP and Wii U doing much less than the Wii were declines seen worldwide and I don't think the primary reason was being replaced by mobile. But platforms had major hardware and software issues that prevented them from being replaced.

During these recent generations Japan had 2 big differences compared to the other big console countries:
-They had a way bigger preference for handhelds than the other countries
-Mobile market grew way faster in Japan than in the other countries
-Unlike in the other countries were in the long term consoles continued growing since the mobile market exploded, it wasn't the case for Japan

If we look worldwide, we can see that overall software sales were falling in value from 2011 to 2016, so this decline was not a Japan-specific thing. Did this happen because the worldwide dedicated video game device market was being replaced by mobile, or was it a variety of factors? Likewise to Japan, we saw a worldwide increase in software sales when Switch launched in 2017 and provided an extra healthy platform, in addition to the software growth of PS4 (and Xbox One in some territories).

I think several things combined can explain that:
-For PS, Xbox and more or less Nintendo 2011-2016 was mostly an intergenerational period and/or they weren't in the best shape compared to how they were before and after that
-PS3 was in the market 2006-2016 and was Sony's less successful/worse performing home console and in that age it already passed its yearly sales peak. PS4 was released in 2013. Xbox dates are more or less the same
-WiiU was in the market 2012-2017. WiiU was basically a failure compared to Wii or Switch
-3DS was in the market 2011-2020, its best selling years were 2012-2014 but it wasn't a huge success as DS or Switch
-With PC making a comeback with Steam getting stronger and many console games getting ported to PC maybe some users moved a pc back then
-Maybe some people moved to mobile
-Maybe this graph only counts full game sales and doesn't include revenue from DLCs and services like XBL/PSN
-There was a worldwide financial crysis that started in 2008 and in many countries made a combo with covid

I think a combination of these things made these years weaker. I prefer to look at longer periods, a bigger picture that also includes more stuff to better spot the long term trends and the patterns.

FY-wise worldwide yes I expect this to be the peak for Switch for hardware. For software I expect next fiscal year to be the peak (though a lot of that will depend on the line up).

When I was talking about Switch's or PS4's peak I meant for hardware. I track the FY curve for hardware, but not for software. So I have no idea about Switch's sales curve for the next few years.

Agreed, COVID has definitely accelerated the trend towards digital in Europe and North America. However, even if we look pre-pandemic to 2018-2019 we can see that Spain still had much lower software sales than Japan has.

Yes, the Spanish console market is smaller than the Japanese one, there's a good difference. What I wanted to highlight is that the difference isn't that big as it was compared to back in the 90's or 00's outside the top selling games.

And Spain is the top 4 European country, worldwide I think it was top 9. It generates only around 2% of the global gaming revenue. And for 3rd party console games it also generates around 2% of global revenue.

I also think devs will want to start regrowing their Japan sales by giving more support to the Switch (as we are seeing with Capcom, Konami and Koei Techmo. Square is the next publisher I see announcing more major titles for Switch).

Well, right now Switch has a ton of units in the market and PS will be a couple of years transitioning to the next generation and working on PSVR2. PS4 dying and PS5 still with a small userbase. Even if declining after the peak, Switch will continue selling very well for a couple of years and its successor won't be announced before that.

So it will be time to bet on Switch during at least a year or two because it will continue being king until PS5 gets close to its peak year. Not just for Japan, but worldwide. 3rds will continue supporting PS but yeah, 3rds will support more Switch in at least the next couple of year or so.

I do think I've found a key area of disagreement that we could use to test our theories. Given that you think 2020 was a rare year, am I right in guessing you expect software sales in Japan to be down this year compared with 2020? From my side I expect software to see further growth in 2021 (and hardware too if the Switch Pro makes it this year).

Well, 2020 has been a rare year not only in consoles. The insane spike in revenue since March also has been noticed worldwide in all the areas related to home entertainment: mobile gaming, PC gaming, internet usage, porn websites, tv usage, video streaming services, etc.

Perhaps the result's this year could show which theory is correct?

I think 2021 will be rare too, and difficult to predict.

Covid still here generating great revenues for gaming, but many big selling games were or will get delayed and seems to be some weird issue with semiconductors generating manufacturing issues in many industries including gaming so supply constrains will continue and maybe become more important.

If they solve these supply constrain issues PS5 will destroy all records and sell a lot. Switch sold way beyond Nintendo's expectations so who knows if it can continue doing it if they manage to have for 2021 BOTW2 (likely), MK9 (not very likely) or a big brand new Mario (unlikely, I think they will focus on Zelda this year).

Covid is also affecting us the devs to sign deals with publishers or investors because there are no presential meetings so negotiations get longer, the upcoming financial crysis make them doubt more and since events are now digital they get contacted by more devs from around the world, so times also get longer. Games as source of money for them is ok, but if they have investments elsewhere or depend on banks/debt can be pretty fucked.

And people getting fucked also means people needing to sell their companies and bigger ones buying them cheaper. So expect to see more merging and acquisitions during the next year or two than usual.

Also, thanks for the detailed response. Appreciate the in-depth discussion

And thank you for the thoughtful and detailed responses by the way. I enjoy this kind of sensible, in-depth discussion.

You're welcome, it has been a great talk

 

[yurinka]

Nintendo has generated more profits with Nintendo Switch in 3.5 years than Sony with PS4 in 7 years lol. Japan is also flourishing and played a bigger role than before that helped Nintendo to overcome Playstation division profits so quickly.

Somehow Nintendo is currently a niche player when they are the most profitable video game company

Yes, it's way more profitable to make $60 emulated games and ports than AAA games.

If you look at the amount of total games sold worldwide for each console the picture is different.

And if you look at revenue instead of profit (because AAA games and things like streaming games and high end technology require way more investment) too.

It has been said for a long time, that trends that start in Japan are often reflected in the rest of the world.

Not true since like a couple of decades ago.

 

[CityHunter1981]

Ok the same bs again. No one knows at this point in time yet. If you look at the sales figures sure, but I live in Japan and fact it that PS5 is like the holy gray, meaning it’s nearly impossible to get one because scalpers buying them and sell them expensive. When you enter the lottery at a shop, you have normally lower chances than 1:10. It is impossible to see a trend before supply catching up with demand and demand is still extremely high.

 

[BootsLoader]

It has been said for a long time, that trends that start in Japan are often reflected in the rest of the world.

I haven't seen it for a while, but if you're oldschool you might be familiar with this "saying".

To be honest, trends in America reflect more often to Japan. I speak generally, as for consoles it never happened to witness a trend from Japan spread in the rest of the world.

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

hijo de la chingada

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

To this point... If there is no improve.... Ps5 is becoming one of the worst console of Sony.

 

[futurama78]

What do people do? 100 million ps4’s sold world wide? 70 million switches? 50 million xbones? 5 million ps5 and series x? Vs 7 billion people? 2.7 billion smartphones?

 

[EDMIX]

I'd say japanese games are in a massive decline with me. They're occupying the A and AA space and doing a not so great job.

I own a good chunk of Japanese's games, but most are of established IPs. I'd say the biggest reason for the decline might be the lack of many new AAA IP from Japan. I many played it safe from Japan. Majority of my favorite titles from Japan last gen were all established stuff, Yakuza, Resident Evil, DMC, Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Persona etc. Very little risk, thus not as much reward. I don't disagree with them playing it safe for some of those publishers ie Capcom, they fucking needed that greatly, but I feel the majority of big publishers in Japan could have focused a bit more on new AAA IP instead of safe releases.

So if you didn't care from some of those series last several generations, last gen wasn't going to do much for you.

I am how ever happy to see stuff like Project Athia and Pragmata





sorely needed.

 

[SkylineRKR]

Its ironic that Japan makes the best console games BY FAR. For me anyway. On PS3 they were on a shit streak and they bastardized their own franchises to copy the west, but they've come to their senses ever since. There were a few years I almost solely played Japanese games. Early last year for example I played Death Stranding, then KH3 DLC, FFVIIR, Persona 5 Royal, RE3R. TLOU2, which I bought off someone in the summer was my first western game. Aside from Doom which I quit and refunded. PS5 began with Astrobot, DMCV Special and DeS which might be a BP remaster but its still a JP game.

Ok the same bs again. No one knows at this point in time yet. If you look at the sales figures sure, but I live in Japan and fact it that PS5 is like the holy gray, meaning it’s nearly impossible to get one because scalpers buying them and sell them expensive. When you enter the lottery at a shop, you have normally lower chances than 1:10. It is impossible to see a trend before supply catching up with demand and demand is still extremely high.

Okay but is there any indication the PS5 is even going to outsell the PS4? Which in turn didn't even outsell the PS3. PS5 might be in demand right now because it hard to get, but I can't see this system suddenly being a success story in Japan over a prolonged period considering how the PS3 and PS4 declined already and they had more software support than PS5 does. Sony pretty much axed Japan studio recently. Playstation priorities are clearly elsewhere these days.

 

[Brute]

 

[ItsTheNew]

I own a good chunk of Japanese's games, but most are of established IPs. I'd say the biggest reason for the decline might be the lack of many new AAA IP from Japan. I many played it safe from Japan. Majority of my favorite titles from Japan last gen were all established stuff, Yakuza, Resident Evil, DMC, Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Persona etc. Very little risk, thus not as much reward. I don't disagree with them playing it safe for some of those publishers ie Capcom, they fucking needed that greatly, but I feel the majority of big publishers in Japan could have focused a bit more on new AAA IP instead of safe releases.

So if you didn't care from some of those series last several generations, last gen wasn't going to do much for you.

I am how ever happy to see stuff like Project Athia and Pragmata





sorely needed.

I agree with your point about prestigious japanese games last gen, however It's just sad to see a game like Balan wonderland given a release when its going to bomb like Billy Hatcher, just because it has a has been on the dev team. My other issue is other japanese games copying the desaturated, depressed looking aesthetic the FF series had gone through. I miss high profile colorful and cheery japanese games that had tight gameplay. Mmo and gacha gameplay loops are so overdone.

 

[Clarissa]

I want so much to post what my friend is who is a Nintendo fanboy thinks about the switch pro and how it would destroy the ps5 but I'm going to get perma banned for that. Uuurrrggh it's so frustrating to not be able to share all that with you guys....

 

[yurinka]

I'd say japanese games are in a massive decline with me. They're occupying the A and AA space and doing a not so great job.

Big Japanese publishers and developers are in a good shape and have a bright future.

Just to name a few, they are working on games like Guilty Gear Strive, Final Fantasy VII Remake Ep. 2, Gran Turismo 7, Final Fantasy XVI, Project Athia, Project Awakening, Elder Ring, Babylon's Fall, Resident Evil 8 or series like Persona, Yakuza, Monster Hunter, Ace Combat, PES, Tales of, Tekken or Street Fighter. PlayStation won't be short of great big Japanese games, both exclusive and multi.

And then on Switch you have others like the Nintendo games, Bayonetta 3 or MH Rise and many others coming.

In some cases they just need to refocus their games to make them more appealing for a more global market instead of focusing on the Japanese market only, and open a bit more to PC, something it would help them to grow and make more money. It also would help them some merges and acquisitions to join forces with someone else and become stronger. But again, most of them are in a good shape -in several cases they are better than ever have been- and have a promising future.

but is there any indication the PS5 is even going to outsell the PS4? Which in turn didn't even outsell the PS3.

PS5 might be in demand right now because it hard to get, but I can't see this system suddenly being a success story in Japan over a prolonged period considering how the PS3 and PS4 declined already and they had more software support than PS5 does. Sony pretty much axed Japan studio recently. Playstation priorities are clearly elsewhere these days.

Yes, PS5 had the best worldwide launch of any other console in gaming history. So outsold the PS4, which had the previous record. They are supply constrained and launched in more countries at the same time than in previous consoles, which in many cases meant less units available per country.

They had a limited amount of consoles, so decided to focus them on their main markets: EMEA and NA. Asia is a smaller market for them and Japan has a long term decreasing trend so they decided to don't focus too much on it beause their business is mostly in the west.

PS5 is supply constrained on a worldwide scale, so obviously it can't sell more. Once they ship new units, they get sold out in minutes. Which leads to think once they solve the lack of semiconductors issue and manage to be able to ship a ton of consoles, their sales will skyrocket.

Japan Studio will continue making internally developed games, and Sony will continue publishing 2nd party Japanese games. Polyphony is also a Japanese Sony studio and will continue making games. Almost every single Japanese publisher released or is working on PS4 or PS5 exclusive games and they will continue making deals with them, as we saw recently with their 3 ways deal with Kadokawa (who owns From Software/Spike Chunsoft/ASCII/Enterbrain/Chara-Ani/Media Factory, Kadowaka Games, Kadokawa Shoten, etc) and CyGames. And well, the 3rd party multi Japanese games will continue being released on PS.

The recent change they did on Japan Studio will be to focus more on Team Asobi because they made the great Astro games and less in making money sink internally developed games like Knack or The Last Guardian, that even if had some fans, during decades didn't sell a shit so the market won't notice it.

 

[Abriael_GN]

So he is the Japanese version of Michael Pachter?

That's exactly what he is.

 

[Bodomism]

I want so much to post what my friend is who is a Nintendo fanboy thinks about the switch pro and how it would destroy the ps5 but I'm going to get perma banned for that. Uuurrrggh it's so frustrating to not be able to share all that with you guys....

You can PM me about that well researched statement by your chad friend.

 

[Reality Czar]

Sony has long seeked out markets in Europe and America, this is nothing new. I believe 50% of their revenue was international as of the early 1960s. So while Japan based they have always had an eye on the world market.

Sony is a big corporation but nowhere near as big as Microsoft. Their games division is a drop in the bucket, and even in a pandemic, maybe especially in one, Bill Gates can weather any storm with his enormous influence. Microsoft has close ties with the US govt across a number of programs. All these help Xbox dominate America.

But Nintendo is another story. The Famicom was started for Japan first and foremost and of all the console makers they seem to have the most Japanese mindset. Both towards games and hardware. In the midst of international shipping and logistics slowdowns, a more Japan-centric company doing better with the domestic market makes total sense.

I think this isn’t a bad thing though. Consoles are always shifting in balance and power, offering different things, trying new moves.

It will be interesting to see where the landmark games come from.

 

[CityHunter1981]

Okay but is there any indication the PS5 is even going to outsell the PS4? Which in turn didn't even outsell the PS3. PS5 might be in demand right now because it hard to get, but I can't see this system suddenly being a success story in Japan over a prolonged period considering how the PS3 and PS4 declined already and they had more software support than PS5 does. Sony pretty much axed Japan studio recently. Playstation priorities are clearly elsewhere these days.

I am not saying that it will not decline compared to previous systems. Mobile games are extremely popular in Japan, because we tend to spend long hours in trains everyday. I also have a 1 hour 40 minute commute to my work and that is not rare in Japan. What I am saying is that it is too early to call and the sales numbers at the moment have no meaning at all. Sony put their focus on other markets and therefore also supplied way less units to Japan this time.
Sorry but anyone who wants to take the current sales numbers as any indication are not to be taken serious and personally I would never believe any word from this so called "anaylist" again, because he has clearly no idea how markets work. How can you possibly sell more units than are supplied.

Perhaps next week he is saying, the Iphone 13 is the biggest flop in the history of Apple, because they didn't sold any units yet..

 

[Bodomism]

I am not saying that it will not decline compared to previous systems. Mobile games are extremely popular in Japan, because we tend to spend long hours in trains everyday. I also have a 1 hour 40 minute commute to my work and that is not rare in Japan. What I am saying is that it is too early to call and the sales numbers at the moment have no meaning at all. Sony put their focus on other markets and therefore also supplied way less units to Japan this time.
Sorry but anyone who wants to take the current sales numbers as any indication are not to be taken serious and personally I would never believe any word from this so called "anaylist" again, because he has clearly no idea how markets work. How can you possibly sell more units than are supplied.

Perhaps next week he is saying, the Iphone 13 is the biggest flop in the history of Apple, because they didn't sold any units yet..

Hardware and software sales = Fact

Take a look at the best selling games of 2021


TOP 40 2021 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 741.772
2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 422.784
3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 326.072
4. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 290.311
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 242.364
6. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 202.396 NEW
7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 162.099
8. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 148.050
9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 131.952
10. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 130.016
11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 108.213
12. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 103.813
13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 93.061 NEW
14. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 82.320
15. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 72.412
16. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 57.386
17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 56.624
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 55.275
19. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 44.517
20. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 43.243
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 39.760
22. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 37.985
23. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 36.436
24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 35.306
25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 34.539
26. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 33.546
27. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
28. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 23.457
29. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 19.826
30. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
31. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 17.151
32. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
33. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
34. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 15.414
35. [NSW] Derby Stallion (GameAddict) - 13.170
36. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 12.994
37. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 12.327
38. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 11.897
39. [NSW] Buddy Mission Bond - 11.027
40. [NSW] Uta no Prince-sama (Broccoli) – 10.588 NEW

TOTAL: 3.992.942
NSW: 3.910.124 (98%)
PS4: 82.818 (2%)

I don't know how can you look at the presented sales data together with the upcoming releases of softwares and concluded it's fine for playstation and the current data presented on the best selling chart shouldn't been taken seriously.

It's very alarming situation for Playstation brand especially when looking at abysmal software sales in this year that further support the analyst claims of PS brand declining in Japan.

 

[CityHunter1981]

Hardware and software sales = Fact

Take a look at the best selling games of 2021


TOP 40 2021 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 741.772
2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 422.784
3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 326.072
4. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 290.311
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 242.364
6. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 202.396 NEW
7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 162.099
8. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 148.050
9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 131.952
10. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 130.016
11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 108.213
12. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 103.813
13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 93.061 NEW
14. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 82.320
15. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 72.412
16. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 57.386
17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 56.624
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 55.275
19. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 44.517
20. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 43.243
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 39.760
22. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 37.985
23. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 36.436
24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 35.306
25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 34.539
26. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 33.546
27. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
28. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 23.457
29. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 19.826
30. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
31. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 17.151
32. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
33. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
34. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 15.414
35. [NSW] Derby Stallion (GameAddict) - 13.170
36. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 12.994
37. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 12.327
38. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 11.897
39. [NSW] Buddy Mission Bond - 11.027
40. [NSW] Uta no Prince-sama (Broccoli) – 10.588 NEW

TOTAL: 3.992.942
NSW: 3.910.124 (98%)
PS4: 82.818 (2%)

I don't know how can you look at the presented sales data together with the upcoming releases of softwares and concluded it's fine for playstation and the current data presented on the best selling chart shouldn't been taken seriously.

It's very alarming situation for Playstation brand especially when looking at abysmal software sales in this year that further support the analyst claims of PS brand declining in Japan.

I didn't speak about the SW sales figure of NSW and PS4, these can be taken into account. What I meant is that the so called analyst referencing the sales numbers of the PS5 hardware, although they are sold out everywhere because supply is not even near to catch up with demand. Yes, NSW is an unbeatable force and PS4 is not doing good in Japan and PS5 will likely not do any better, but to make any predictions based on PS5 hardware sales figures is just stupid.

 

[Shadowstar39]

This almost makes me not want to even buy a Ps5. If it wasn't for my ps4 dying and needing a replacement to play my backlog i wouldn't quite care.
Why because 1 no more Bethesda, or obsidian, so no western rpgs.
2. No more bloodborne or demon souls sequel as the guy is gone.
3. No more gravity rush, no more tokyo jungle. Only stupid robot mario knockoff astrobot (lol).
4. No more quirky games like Patapon, locoroco , the last guy, etc...
5. No more jrpgs the likes of legend of dragoon, dark cloud, white knight chronicles, etc..

Japanese jrpg 3rd party that were exclusive to Playstation have jumped ship to the switch.
NIS the Disgaea dev is making Disgaea 6 Switch exclusive.
All the cool jrpgs are heading to switch.
Sony censorship and pandering to hardcore feminsts and sjws, is anti japan.

Good thing I have a switch and a good pc.

Really Sony is going to have a lack of RPGs to make the first few years of ps3 look like it was good. What will they do now that microsoft bought all the western rpg devs, and the Japanese don't want anything to do with them?
Eastern Europe devs won't have games ready as cdproject is having issues, and we haven't heard jack from warhorse or the gothic dev (which is usually pc anyway).
Bioware has been crap lately so not holding my breath there.

Sony has been known for rpgs, and now they will be left with none. GOW, Horizon, ghosts of tushima, tlou, days gone are not anywhere close to rpgs.
No western or japanese styles. Also no quirky games.

Fire jim ryan, bring back Jack Tretton and Kaz, Yoshida and Adam Boyes.

 

[SentientStone]

Make PlayStation Great Again!

 

[SkylineRKR]

Hardware and software sales = Fact

Take a look at the best selling games of 2021


TOP 40 2021 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 741.772
2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 422.784
3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 326.072
4. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 290.311
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 242.364
6. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 202.396 NEW
7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 162.099
8. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 148.050
9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 131.952
10. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 130.016
11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 108.213
12. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 103.813
13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 93.061 NEW
14. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 82.320
15. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 72.412
16. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 57.386
17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 56.624
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 55.275
19. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 44.517
20. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 43.243
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 39.760
22. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 37.985
23. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 36.436
24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 35.306
25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 34.539
26. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 33.546
27. [NSW] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
28. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 23.457
29. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 19.826
30. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
31. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 17.151
32. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
33. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
34. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 15.414
35. [NSW] Derby Stallion (GameAddict) - 13.170
36. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 12.994
37. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (Bandai Namco) - 12.327
38. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 11.897
39. [NSW] Buddy Mission Bond - 11.027
40. [NSW] Uta no Prince-sama (Broccoli) – 10.588 NEW

TOTAL: 3.992.942
NSW: 3.910.124 (98%)
PS4: 82.818 (2%)

I don't know how can you look at the presented sales data together with the upcoming releases of softwares and concluded it's fine for playstation and the current data presented on the best selling chart shouldn't been taken seriously.

It's very alarming situation for Playstation brand especially when looking at abysmal software sales in this year that further support the analyst claims of PS brand declining in Japan.

Its not specifically a Playstation problem. The Wii U didn't sell in Japan either. Its the product. If Sony releases a handheld device over there, it will surely outsell their last few home systems. But they can't lock the exclusive games for it since everything goes to NSW.

 

[Bodomism]

Its not specifically a Playstation problem. The Wii U didn't sell in Japan either. Its the product. If Sony releases a handheld device over there, it will surely outsell their last few home systems. But they can't lock the exclusive games for it since everything goes to NSW.

Playstation Vita says hi!

 

[SkylineRKR]

Playstation Vita says hi!

Vita did outsell the PS4 at some point. But Sony has ignored this thing pretty much since it launched. PSP is likely Sony's last succesful release in Japan.

 

[vkbest]

NIS the Disgaea dev is making Disgaea 6 Switch exclusive.

NIS is not making Disgaea 6 Switch exclusive, the game released on PS4 too some weeks ago. It's the west publisher who is releasing only on Switch in West (probably money hatting from Nintendo), and this topic is about Playstation declining on Japan, so you can't correlate your post with this topic.

 

[cireza]

Playstation Vita says hi!

Despite the absolute lack of the support for the Vita, it took a lot of time for the PS4 to start outselling the Vita on a weekly basis.

 

[Burythelight]

This almost makes me not want to even buy a Ps5. If it wasn't for my ps4 dying and needing a replacement to play my backlog i wouldn't quite care.
Why because 1 no more Bethesda, or obsidian, so no western rpgs.
2. No more bloodborne or demon souls sequel as the guy is gone.
3. No more gravity rush, no more tokyo jungle. Only stupid robot mario knockoff astrobot (lol).
4. No more quirky games like Patapon, locoroco , the last guy, etc...
5. No more jrpgs the likes of legend of dragoon, dark cloud, white knight chronicles, etc..

Japanese jrpg 3rd party that were exclusive to Playstation have jumped ship to the switch.
NIS the Disgaea dev is making Disgaea 6 Switch exclusive.
All the cool jrpgs are heading to switch.
Sony censorship and pandering to hardcore feminsts and sjws, is anti japan.

Good thing I have a switch and a good pc.

Really Sony is going to have a lack of RPGs to make the first few years of ps3 look like it was good. What will they do now that microsoft bought all the western rpg devs, and the Japanese don't want anything to do with them?
Eastern Europe devs won't have games ready as cdproject is having issues, and we haven't heard jack from warhorse or the gothic dev (which is usually pc anyway).
Bioware has been crap lately so not holding my breath there.

Sony has been known for rpgs, and now they will be left with none. GOW, Horizon, ghosts of tushima, tlou, days gone are not anywhere close to rpgs.
No western or japanese styles. Also no quirky games.

Fire jim ryan, bring back Jack Tretton and Kaz, Yoshida and Adam Boyes.

So you know ps5 realeses already wow what are the sony censored games?

 

[Woopah]

Statista's source is behind a paywall (I don't pay). Nielsen, Newzoo, Superdata and so on get them from the publishers, who also are their customers. I assume Statista's source should be one of them.

It would be a lot easier if we had this data, but even then I don't think we'd have the whole story as Nintendo is Japan's biggest publisher by far and they don't share digital data with anyone.

I think 2021 will be rare too, and difficult to predict.

Covid still here generating great revenues for gaming, but many big selling games were or will get delayed and seems to be some weird issue with semiconductors generating manufacturing issues in many industries including gaming so supply constrains will continue and maybe become more important.

If they solve these supply constrain issues PS5 will destroy all records and sell a lot. Switch sold way beyond Nintendo's expectations so who knows if it can continue doing it if they manage to have for 2021 BOTW2 (likely), MK9 (not very likely) or a big brand new Mario (unlikely, I think they will focus on Zelda this year).

Covid is also affecting us the devs to sign deals with publishers or investors because there are no presential meetings so negotiations get longer, the upcoming financial crysis make them doubt more and since events are now digital they get contacted by more devs from around the world, so times also get longer. Games as source of money for them is ok, but if they have investments elsewhere or depend on banks/debt can be pretty fucked.

And people getting fucked also means people needing to sell their companies and bigger ones buying them cheaper. So expect to see more merging and acquisitions during the next year or two than usual.

Agree with all of this

Well, right now Switch has a ton of units in the market and PS will be a couple of years transitioning to the next generation and working on PSVR2. PS4 dying and PS5 still with a small userbase. Even if declining after the peak, Switch will continue selling very well for a couple of years and its successor won't be announced before that.

So it will be time to bet on Switch during at least a year or two because it will continue being king until PS5 gets close to its peak year. Not just for Japan, but worldwide. 3rds will continue supporting PS but yeah, 3rds will support more Switch in at least the next couple of year or so.

Agree with all of this too!

During these recent generations Japan had 2 big differences compared to the other big console countries:
-They had a way bigger preference for handhelds than the other countries
-Mobile market grew way faster in Japan than in the other countries
-Unlike in the other countries were in the long term consoles continued growing since the mobile market exploded, it wasn't the case for Japan


I think several things combined can explain that:
-For PS, Xbox and more or less Nintendo 2011-2016 was mostly an intergenerational period and/or they weren't in the best shape compared to how they were before and after that
-PS3 was in the market 2006-2016 and was Sony's less successful/worse performing home console and in that age it already passed its yearly sales peak. PS4 was released in 2013. Xbox dates are more or less the same
-WiiU was in the market 2012-2017. WiiU was basically a failure compared to Wii or Switch
-3DS was in the market 2011-2020, its best selling years were 2012-2014 but it wasn't a huge success as DS or Switch
-With PC making a comeback with Steam getting stronger and many console games getting ported to PC maybe some users moved a pc back then
-Maybe some people moved to mobile
-Maybe this graph only counts full game sales and doesn't include revenue from DLCs and services like XBL/PSN
-There was a worldwide financial crysis that started in 2008 and in many countries made a combo with covid

Now we reach our point of difference. I think your second list of bullet points explains Japan's decline much better than the first. The failure of the Wii U and Vita, combined with the underperformance of the PS3, were all just as important to Japan's decline in that period as the move to mobile was. The big differences between the markets were :

1. In Japan the 3DS didn't decline from the DS as much as it did in the West
2. In Japan the PS4 didn't rebound from the PS3 like it did in the West.

So given this strength of the 3DS, to me it seems like the shift to mobile had a much greater impact on handheld gaming outside Japan than in it. In the West a massive chunk of the DS/PSP audience shifted to mobile, but in the West the majority of the DS/PSP audience moved on to the 3DS/PSV.

Outside Japan handheld sales: 178m DS/PSP ->55 million 3DS/PSV (69% decline)
Japan handheld sales: 52m DS/PSP ->30 million 3DS/PSV (43% decline)

Even if we were to assume that the handheld market hoovered up the 9 million people who got a Wii but not the Wii U, the shift from handheld to mobile was still smaller in Japan than in the West.

So the key question becomes why did the PS3 -> PS3 stay flat in Japan and not grow (I do think there was some growth in terms of revenue from DLCs and services, but this is hidden from us). One part of this is that portability is more important in Japan than the West (although the difference in sales between Switch and Switch Late show that being able to play games on a TV is still a highly valued functionality).

But just as important is software.

PlayStation's strength is that it gathers the power of all the third parties together. In the West it can gather all the big franchises that aren't owned by Nintendo and it gets them pretty much every year (Call of Duty, an EA FPS game, Assassins Creed and the EA/2K sport games).

Whereas in Japan we're now in a situation where there's only three big franchises not owned by Nintendo; Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts (and these come to consoles once or twice a generation, not every year). So while Nintendo's power in Japan is higher now than it was 10 years ago, for almost every third party it is much less. Even when third parties were all putting their support on PS4, there was only 2 or 3 games that were able to outsell Splatoon, a new IP on the Wii U.

Now there was Level 5, and they showed they had potential to create and grow hit franchises. But then they tried to make the shift to the mobile market and it has pretty much decimated the company.

And I know I've only been mentioning the big sellers so far, but

1. The same applies to mid-level market as well (with the exception that we have seen some non-Nintendo mid-level successes, such as the Nier and Persona franchises).
2. Mega popular hits play a huge role in attracting new people to the dedicated video game device market (we've seen this in the West with Fortnight and Minecraft).

So it's not really Sony's fault why the PlayStation 4 didn't see much growth, its the collective failure of their third party partners to attract new audiences.

To sum up my point: If Japanese third parties were able to appeal to a wide range of demographics in order to grow their franchises and create hit new ones like Nintendo has done, then the Japanese market could grow quite a bit, regardless of how big the mobile market becomes. In a scenario where BOTW, Ring Fit Adventure and Splatoon were on PS4 instead of Switch and Wii U, PlayStation would be in a much better situation.

Yes, the Spanish console market is smaller than the Japanese one, there's a good difference. What I wanted to highlight is that the difference isn't that big as it was compared to back in the 90's or 00's outside the top selling games. And Spain is the top 4 European country, worldwide I think it was top 9. It generates only around 2% of the global gaming revenue. And for 3rd party console games it also generates around 2% of global revenue.

You're underselling yourself slightly! From the markets we get regular hardware data from Spain is the 6th largest market for PlayStation and the 7th largest market for Switch.

 

[MicrosoftMediaPro]

That's because the PlayStation 5 doesn't fit in the small Japanese Households

 

[JimboJones]

I want so much to post what my friend is who is a Nintendo fanboy thinks about the switch pro and how it would destroy the ps5 but I'm going to get perma banned for that. Uuurrrggh it's so frustrating to not be able to share all that with you guys....

Thank you mod team.

 

[yurinka]

It's very alarming situation for Playstation brand especially when looking at abysmal software sales in this year that further support the analyst claims of PS brand declining in Japan.

Look at the big picture of the worldwide scale:

This quarter PlayStation reached an all-time high of $8.45B Revenue in a single quarter, a new record for the industry: first time any platform holder ever reached $8 Billion in a single quarter in gaming history.

PlayStation reached an all-time high of 22.74B Revenue in 2020 (Nintendo did $13.36B in 2020) and set a new record for the industry for a calendar year.

PS5 had this quarter the best selling launch quarter of any console in gaming history and are sold out and supply constrained worldwide. Regarding launch aligned LTD sales, at its point of its lifetime PS4 is the best selling console ever.

Wow! Much alarming! I'm pretty sure people at Sony HQ must be crying.

 

[ElCasual]

with Sega games in gamepass, Persona games in other plataforms and the ps games in pc theres no need for buy a ps console.

 

[BattleScar]

Japan YTD 2021 - 1.45M hardware sold
UK YTD 2021 - 0.35M hardware sold

The UK has half the population.
Selling more hardware than in the UK doesn't mean that the Japanese market isn't shrinking. Its a completely non-sequitur argument.

 

[Bodomism]

Look at the big picture of the worldwide scale:

This quarter PlayStation reached an all-time high of $8.45B Revenue in a single quarter, a new record for the industry: first time any platform holder ever reached $8 Billion in a single quarter in gaming history.

PlayStation reached an all-time high of 22.74B Revenue in 2020 (Nintendo did $13.36B in 2020) and set a new record for the industry for a calendar year.

PS5 had this quarter the best selling launch quarter of any console in gaming history and are sold out and supply constrained worldwide. Regarding launch aligned LTD sales, at its point of its lifetime PS4 is the best selling console ever.

Wow! Much alarming! I'm pretty sure people at Sony HQ must be crying.

Operating profits in full year of 2020

Sony Playstation - $3.329bn
Nintendo - $5.88bn

The most important picture of any gaming business

 

[Bodomism]

The UK has half the population.
Selling more hardware than in the UK doesn't mean that the Japanese market isn't shrinking. Its a completely non-sequitur argument.

Japanese market is flourishing to be exact. Thanks to the data we got every week no one can made their own facts from fanboys perspective.

 

[yurinka]

You're underselling yourself slightly! From the markets we get regular hardware data from Spain is the 6th largest market for PlayStation and the 7th largest market for Switch.

Well, when I said 4th of Europe and 9th worldwide I was including the whole gaming market, with PC and mobile. When including non-console markets South Korea or China go above Spain.

 

[yurinka]

Operating profits in full year of 2020

Sony Playstation - $3.329bn
Nintendo - $5.88bn

The most important picture of any gaming business

No, because knowing PlayStation made $22.74B of revenue and Nintendo $13.36B in that period, that difference in profit is only a small portion of Sony's revenue, around 11%.

If Sony would have wanted more profit they would have invested a bit less in some areas reducing costs here and there. Like the funding of some AAA 1st/2nd/3rd party games, some big 3rd party marketing deals, some PS Plus and PS Now game deals, reducing their marketing budget, etc. A small portion of all their costs.

Sony didn't give a fuck about having more profit and decided to reinvest it instead. Revenue is more important because allows them to use it to have in the future more and bigger games, hardware and services, to market them more and so on to generate more future revenue and profit to continue breaking gaming history records, as they have been doing with PS4 and PS5 these recent years.

TLDR: In the global market Sony made during 2020 almost twice the amount of money Nintendo did, and decided to reinvest a bigger portion of it than Nintendo, period. Maybe Nintendo is performing a bit better in Japan but who cares, Japanese sales are just a small slice of their global console market pie, where Sony is dominating.

 

[Bodomism]

No, because knowing PlayStation made $22.74B of revenue and Nintendo $13.36B in that period, that difference in profit is only a small portion of Sony's revenue, around 11%.

If Sony would have wanted more profit they would have invested a bit less in some areas reducing costs here and there. Like the funding of some AAA 1st/2nd/3rd party games, some big 3rd party marketing deals, some PS Plus and PS Now game deals, reducing their marketing budget, etc. A small portion of all their costs.

Sony didn't give a fuck about having more profit and decided to reinvest it instead. Revenue is more important because allows them to use it to have in the future more and bigger games, hardware and services, to market them more and so on to generate more future revenue and profit to continue breaking gaming history records, as they have been doing with PS4 and PS5 these recent years.

TLDR: In the global market Sony made during 2020 almost twice the amount of money Nintendo did, and decided to reinvest a bigger portion of it than Nintendo, period. Maybe Nintendo is performing a bit better in Japan but who cares, Japanese sales are just a small slice of their global console market pie, where Sony is dominating.

Revenue talk with pathetic profits margin is only works for a loser.

Profits is the endgame of every business like how microsoft flexing their record profits in last quarter while revenue talk is for division with pathetic profit margin like Xbox Division.

Sign of chad gaming company = huge profits with high profit margin

Let me highlight it to you once again
Operating profits in full year of 2020

Sony Playstation - $3.329bn
Nintendo - $5.88bn

Also comparing revenue is probably the most stupid comparison especially profits result is available.

 

[Clarissa]

Revenue talk with pathetic profits margin is only works for a loser.

Profits is the endgame of every business like how microsoft flexing their record profits in last quarter while revenue talk is for division with pathetic profit margin like Xbox Division.

Sign of chad gaming company = huge profits with high profit margin

Let me highlight it to you once again
Operating profits in full year of 2020

Sony Playstation - $3.329bn
Nintendo - $5.88bn

Also comparing revenue is probably the most stupid comparison especially profits result is available.

My friend who is a Nintendo fanboy who hates Sony has started a Nintendo Elite Club where he invites only the biggest fans of Nintendo into the group. Hating Sony is a requirement too.

Think of it like the Upper and Lower Moon demons in Demon Slayer. And my friend would be none other than Muzan.

I'll see if I can get him to invite you in.

 

[BattleScar]

Japanese market is flourishing to be exact. Thanks to the data we got every week no one can made their own facts from fanboys perspective.

I'm sure you're right. But do you have any data to support that assertion. Any clear growth indicators etc.?

Revenue talk with pathetic profits margin is only works for a loser.

Profits is the endgame of every business like how microsoft flexing their record profits in last quarter while revenue talk is for division with pathetic profit margin like Xbox Division.

Sign of chad gaming company = huge profits with high profit margin

Let me highlight it to you once again
Operating profits in full year of 2020

Sony Playstation - $3.329bn
Nintendo - $5.88bn

Also comparing revenue is probably the most stupid comparison especially profits result is available.

Yes congratulations to Nintendo for operating with a high margins.
However, you seem to be forgetting that Sony will have had to dump hundreds of millions of dollars in R&D over the last few years in the build up to the launch of the PS5. That cost will be taken straight off the revenue generated by the business unit, which will in turn affect the margins.

And comparing revenue in business terms is definitely a valid comparison. For you see if Sony can do stuff like reduce costs/overheads (for hardware, software, distribution etc.) their significantly higher revenue will yield higher profits in the long term.
This is what usually typifies a loss-leader strategy as gaming consoles aside from Nintendo tend to utilise frequently. Sacrifice up front profits for high volume sales (and thus revenue) and cash in later.

Nintendo is a successful gaming company, but so is Sony. Both have had their ups and downs.

 

[yurinka]

If we look worldwide, we can see that overall software sales were falling in value from 2011 to 2016, so this decline was not a Japan-specific thing. Did this happen because the worldwide dedicated video game device market was being replaced by mobile, or was it a variety of factors? Likewise to Japan, we saw a worldwide increase in software sales when Switch launched in 2017 and provided an extra healthy platform, in addition to the software growth of PS4 (and Xbox One in some territories).

Today I got a new report with some charts, you can see some of them in this other thread:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/idg-...-includes-new-gaming-market-forecast.1595384/

One of them shows more info of what happened in the NA (not Japan, not worlwide) consoles market from 2011 to 2016: after the sales PS3+360+Wii+DS+PSP peak + 2008 crysis (good combo) digital sales started to replace retail software sales more and more generating the same amount in 2016.

The thing is, looking at a wider picture by including more years the console software market wasn't really decreasing during the 2011-2016, it was instead recovering from that very unusual too high peak caused the combo that was the 2008 crysis and the peak of several successful systems all packed together in a short period of time. And was also the start of the tracking of digital console revenue so very likely they weren't tracking all very well because maybe didn't had the complete data back then.

If you combine retail and digital SW sales and normalize it, and if you normalize the HW sales you'll find it both console HW and SW have been growing since the 2000.

P.D.: Other graphs included in that doc are from Spring or Summer 2020, so I assume this one too. Which means the 2020 data is an estimated forecast.

 

[PharaoTutAnchAmun]

Oh, his job is safe. He's been unleashing ludicrous opinions and predictions for a decade.

Sites like this gobble them up (after google translating them) because they're perfectly good for riling up the fanboys.

No they do it for clicks.

 

[MastaKiiLA]

I would say sales numbers don't really look promising, but as has been pointed out, they're still not satiating demand yet. It's a bit early to make this claim. I don't think Sony will ever get back to the PS2 days though.

 

[MvCSpiderman]

PS1 16 mill
PS2 21 mill
PS3 10 mill
PS4 9 mill
PSP 16 mill
PSV 6 mill

Switch will beat PS2 in Japan by the end of the year.

PS2 only outsold GBC, and PSP for portables. If you don't include all forms of GBA it outsold GBA to, but portable was always bigger there now that phones since 2010 became another option there's no longer a choice between console and Nintendo, it's now a Nintendo, the device you carry all the time, or a declining console scene.

PS5 won't change a thing. Slow start, more expensive, less appealing games, too many safe sequel titles, too big, PS4 still selling and will soon get a price cut, etc. I see less than 6 million even with mid gen refresh.

XSX may sell similar to 1st Xbox or a bit more, but still far from 360.