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PS5 will outsell Xbox Series consoles 2-to-1 this year, Ampere Analysis forecasts

Ozriel

M$FT
Games do sell consoles, but I'm not sure what that has to do with what I posted.

The general expectation is that Xbox significant first party setup should start delivering games starting from this year. If games really do sell consoles, why would you expect the demand curve to remain the same as we’ve seen?

Bottom line is that they don’t need a Kinect or similar twist to keep selling well. Games will do the trick…if they deliver.
 

Woopah

Member
The general expectation is that Xbox significant first party setup should start delivering games starting from this year. If games really do sell consoles, why would you expect the demand curve to remain the same as we’ve seen?

Bottom line is that they don’t need a Kinect or similar twist to keep selling well. Games will do the trick…if they deliver.
My point was that just because Xbox Series is outpacing the 360 now, doesn't mean it always will be due to the 360's very odd sales curve.

Will MS' improved first party output give a boost to Xbox Series? Absolutely. Will it be as big as big as the boost Kinect gave to the 360? We'll have to wait and see.
 
Seems PS5 outsold xbox by less than 100k in the USA and UK? Either way, there was no 2-1 drubbing anywhere.
We don't know US numbers, yet, so not sure where you got that idea. Also, PS5 outsold the XSX/S by 4.3:1 in Japan, with a gap of 884K. I'd imagine there's quite a few territories in EU and ROTW with ~2:1 results. 2023 is really going to be interesting with PS5 stock being more widely available.
 
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Unknown?

Member
We don't know US numbers, yet, so not sure where you got that idea. Also, PS5 outsold the XSX/S by 4.3:1 in Japan, with a gap of 884K. I'd imagine there's quite a few territories in EU and ROTW with ~2:1 results. 2023 is really going to be interesting with PS5 stock being more widely available.
Which is crazy because ONE model of PS5 has to compete with TWO Xboxes. It'd be even higher if it was just the Series X
 
We don't know US numbers, yet, so not sure where you got that idea. Also, PS5 outsold the XSX/S by 4.3:1 in Japan, with a gap of 884K. I'd imagine there's quite a few territories in EU and ROTW with ~2:1 results. 2023 is really going to be interesting with PS5 stock being more widely available.

There's no reason for anyone to realistically assume Xbox Series are any further than maybe 16 million, maybe 16.5 million (as an absolute limit) sold-through (as of end of 2022), which would be tracking behind XBO (18 million by January 2016 aka its 26th month on market), but ahead of 360. Otherwise I think MS would have made a PR statement about them being ahead of 360 & XBO life-to-date at the start of the year, just to kick off gaming-side with some good news as they enter their third fiscal quarter. They don't need to win NPDs to give such statements, FWIW.

Also I realized the Ampere estimates report was from August, not June like I normally assumed. That means their sold-through as of June 2022 was probably somewhere between 11.5 million (360's sold-through by its 20th month) and 12 million (maybe a tad north of 12 million at absolute best, saying something like 12.3 million). Combine that with MS's own tweets indicating market share from September or so (where they gave combined XBO & Series sold-through at 63.7 million), and most analysts figure XBO reached about 50 million LTD (Statista has 50.54 million for example) giving anywhere between 13.16 million - 13.7 million Xbox Series sold-through by that point.

The lower estimate seems possibly more realistic though because no analysts actually claim XBO sold under 50 million LTD), and their typical Oct - Dec unit allocations for their global markets (combined with factors impacting any demand i.e exclusive releases, big release co-marketing deals etc. or lack thereof). However, that gives them roughly 3 months selling ~ 2.5 million (low end) to shy 3.5 million (high end) globally when considering US & UK account for the vast majority of Xbox market share by far.

Personally I think a number between 16 million and 16.5 million sold-through for Series at close of 2022 is most realistic.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
There's no reason for anyone to realistically assume Xbox Series are any further than maybe 16 million, maybe 16.5 million (as an absolute limit) sold-through (as of end of 2022), which would be tracking behind XBO (18 million by January 2016 aka its 26th month on market), but ahead of 360. Otherwise I think MS would have made a PR statement about them being ahead of 360 & XBO life-to-date at the start of the year, just to kick off gaming-side with some good news as they enter their third fiscal quarter. They don't need to win NPDs to give such statements, FWIW.

Wrong. In January 2022, Phil Spencer in a NY Times interview confirmed that the Xbox Series consoles were outselling all other Xbox generations at the same time frame. Unless you claim the XBO wasn’t an Xbox console, your claim that the new console is tracking behind the Xbox One is nonsense.


Also I realized the Ampere estimates report was from August, not June like I normally assumed. That means their sold-through as of June 2022 was probably somewhere between 11.5 million (360's sold-through by its 20th month) and 12 million (maybe a tad north of 12 million at absolute best, saying something like 12.3 million).

And yet, Using the ‘selling better than Xbox One’ metric, analyst estimates were that the Series consoles had shipped more than 12 million units by the end of December 2021. 8 months ahead of your August 2022 claim.

Combine that with MS's own tweets indicating market share from September or so (where they gave combined XBO & Series sold-through at 63.7 million), and most analysts figure XBO reached about 50 million LTD (Statista has 50.54 million for example) giving anywhere between 13.16 million - 13.7 million Xbox Series sold-through by that point.

This seems like an attempt to deliberately mislead, since Microsoft’s CMA response dated the 63.7 million figure at the end of 2021. Calendar year 2021. So by your logic, that should have had approx 13.7 million Series consoles sold at the end of 2021. Not August 2022 like you’ve been pushing.

Since that time, Microsoft has gone on to announce record setting Xbox hardware sales quarters during 2022, so it’s safe to say there’s been a significant increase on those numbers.

Personally I think a number between 16 million and 16.5 million sold-through for Series at close of 2022 is most realistic.

This is not a credible assumption for reasons outlined earlier. It just reads like you’re invested in downplaying Xbox hardware sales. Why?
 
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clampzyn

Member
lmao, people still believe stock was a massive issue on playstation while it had almost the same sales for ps4, nov 2013-nov 2015 around 30mils were sold for the ps4 while ps5 sales were near that figure, it was just harder to get since scalpers are heavily involved this generation, its all a myth for sony to increase their pricing on their console :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
This is not a credible assumption for reasons outlined earlier. It just reads like you’re invested in downplaying Xbox hardware sales. Why?
I do not think he thicc_girls_are_teh_best thicc_girls_are_teh_best is downplaying anything, but it is fun seeing alternating between the poor bullied MS pity party when FTC/CMA and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition are involved and then bitterness at something that you feel is underplaying how much of a success they are… make up your mind ;).
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
lmao, people still believe stock was a massive issue on playstation while it had almost the same sales for ps4, nov 2013-nov 2015 around 30mils were sold for the ps4 while ps5 sales were near that figure, it was just harder to get since scalpers are heavily involved this generation, its all a myth for sony to increase their pricing on their console :messenger_tears_of_joy:
If the product was in higher demand, which is possible with a good product following up a successful product as the word of mouth and anticipation works for you, it is possible for that to be true. I do not think the chip shortage issues affected everyone but them…
 

Ozriel

M$FT
I do not think he thicc_girls_are_teh_best thicc_girls_are_teh_best is downplaying anything, but it is fun seeing alternating between the poor bullied MS pity party when FTC/CMA and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition are involved and then bitterness at something that you feel is underplaying how much of a success they are… make up your mind ;).

Nothing conflicting in anything I’ve said.

Sony holds a dominant position in consoles, is outselling Xbox and will most certainly sell significantly more consoles than MS at the end of the generation.
At the same time, lowball estimates of xbox sales are ludicrous.

Multiple things can be true at the same time. And your post reads like a Freudian Slip anyway…not to mention a convenient pivot away from discussing numbers 😀
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
There's no reason for anyone to realistically assume Xbox Series are any further than maybe 16 million, maybe 16.5 million (as an absolute limit) sold-through (as of end of 2022), which would be tracking behind XBO (18 million by January 2016 aka its 26th month on market), but ahead of 360. Otherwise I think MS would have made a PR statement about them being ahead of 360 & XBO life-to-date at the start of the year, just to kick off gaming-side with some good news as they enter their third fiscal quarter. They don't need to win NPDs to give such statements, FWIW.

Also I realized the Ampere estimates report was from August, not June like I normally assumed. That means their sold-through as of June 2022 was probably somewhere between 11.5 million (360's sold-through by its 20th month) and 12 million (maybe a tad north of 12 million at absolute best, saying something like 12.3 million). Combine that with MS's own tweets indicating market share from September or so (where they gave combined XBO & Series sold-through at 63.7 million), and most analysts figure XBO reached about 50 million LTD (Statista has 50.54 million for example) giving anywhere between 13.16 million - 13.7 million Xbox Series sold-through by that point.

The lower estimate seems possibly more realistic though because no analysts actually claim XBO sold under 50 million LTD), and their typical Oct - Dec unit allocations for their global markets (combined with factors impacting any demand i.e exclusive releases, big release co-marketing deals etc. or lack thereof). However, that gives them roughly 3 months selling ~ 2.5 million (low end) to shy 3.5 million (high end) globally when considering US & UK account for the vast majority of Xbox market share by far.

Personally I think a number between 16 million and 16.5 million sold-through for Series at close of 2022 is most realistic.
Makes sense.

Also, MS submitted documents to regulators a few months ago in which they confirmed that "PS4 outsold Xbox One by more than 2." (link to the document MS submitted)

PS4 sold 116 million units, half of which becomes 58 million units for Xbox. But it's "more than 2", so it wasn't 58 million units; it was less than that. An estimate of 50-52 million units seems more likely, which is also in line with several estimates by reputed analyst firms. For instance, Ampere Analysis estimates 51 million Xbox One units.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Nothing conflicting in anything I’ve said.

Sony holds a dominant position in consoles, is outselling Xbox and will most certainly sell significantly more consoles than MS at the end of the generation.
At the same time, lowball estimates of xbox sales are ludicrous. Multiple things can be true at the same time.
It is conflicting as having a successful product coming out of a more of a bump in the road necessitates a while to win people over. Creating new games and furthering your identity there helps.

Where it does not help is the argument that a poor bullied $2 Trillion dollar corp needs just needs as the only way to survive buy the biggest Multiplatform publishers and force this advantage against their competition under the threat of content starving them with games that both consoles would have gotten before.

Keep acting as if you did not know that and being hurt about console sales numbers somewhere else do not matter as much as MAU’s anyways… goalposts moving.

And your post reads like a Freudian Slip anyway…not to mention a convenient pivot away from discussing numbers 😀
Keep playing Bingo by just crossing all slots regardless of the number being called or not. You win 🥇.
 

octiny

Banned

He's grabbing it just give him a sec..

w3c2Y3Z.gif
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
MAUs are FAR more important to their investors than console sales, especially when ‘Xbox’ also covers PC and Cloud.
I wouldn't say "FAR more important" as console and console gaming continues to be the biggest revenue driver (85% vs. 15% of Gamepass revenue) and still the centerpiece of Xbox's strategy.

Most importantly, MAU becomes important only when you have a clear CAC and ROI per new consumer/subscriber. Because we have none of it, we can't say that MAUs are more important, because what if the ROI per new MAU is negative?
 

Ozriel

M$FT
It is conflicting as having a successful product coming out of a more of a bump in the road necessitates a while to win people over. Creating new games and furthering your identity there helps.

Where it does not help is the argument that a poor bullied $2 Trillion dollar corp needs just needs as the only way to survive buy the biggest Multiplatform publishers and force this advantage against their competition under the threat of content starving them with games that both consoles would have gotten before.

But I haven’t made that argument here.
Do you often make up these arguments to refute for brownie points?

Keep acting as if you did not know that and being hurt about console sales numbers somewhere else do not matter as much as MAU’s anyways… goalposts moving.

Microsoft pivoted to MAUs a long while ago. It’s the common metric across their Office , Cloud and Gaming services.

These are grownup facts. You should learn to deal with it.

Note that I’ve never said console sales aren’t important.

Keep playing Bingo by just crossing all slots regardless of the number being called or not. You win 🥇.

No idea what this means. But cheers
 

Pelta88

Member
Mau only become important when Xbox came last and decided that sales didn't matter any more and decided to report useless figures.

MAU was their last stand and a PR strategy. Nowadays, they don't even give that number. However, Microsoft has given a lot of data to regulators and here's some uncomfortable truths via Microsoft's legal submissions.

GP will only generate 15% of XBOX revenue

Microsoft admits Cloud gaming and unproven as a consumer proposition

Gamepass subscriptions have slowed on console

There are some other admissions to regulators like XBOX market share and their countries where the xbox console is viable. None of it paints a comfortable picture for a company that's been in gaming for 26 years + Which is why, predictably, some will tell you that console sales don't matter... Any more...

And that the XBOX MAU, a number XBOX hasn't given out in years, is where it's at.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
I wouldn't say "FAR more important" as console and console gaming continues to be the biggest revenue driver (85% vs. 15% of Gamepass revenue) and still the centerpiece of Xbox's strategy.

Most importantly, MAU becomes important only when you have a clear CAC and ROI per new consumer/subscriber. Because we have none of it, we can't say that MAUs are more important, because what if the ROI per new MAU is negative?

You realize that 85% bit contains all the revenue they make from Sales on Steam?

How do you tie that to console sales?

for investors, MS breaks down revenue - software, hardware. None has so far complained about the level of granularity. And MAUs are a company wide metric reported for pretty much all their major revenue sources.
 
it is actually very easy to tell which console is more successful; you just have to find the loudest criticism from its users.

This is actually why Nintendo is king most of the time. People can't shut up about Nintendo's flaws but they keep buying the games and consoles because they have no alternative.
While Sony has people who keep demanding head of PlayStation to resign.

Xbox... Has people wanting their head of the division to get awards for how good he allegedly is.

How does this work? This works because the smaller the ecosystem, the less casual fans there are who would actually criticize the company. When all the casuals leave and all you get is hard core audiences, you end up with nothing but praise. You run out of people who actually want you to improve.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
There's no reason for anyone to realistically assume Xbox Series are any further than maybe 16 million, maybe 16.5 million (as an absolute limit) sold-through (as of end of 2022), which would be tracking behind XBO (18 million by January 2016 aka its 26th month on market), but ahead of 360. Otherwise I think MS would have made a PR statement about them being ahead of 360 & XBO life-to-date at the start of the year, just to kick off gaming-side with some good news as they enter their third fiscal quarter. They don't need to win NPDs to give such statements, FWIW.

Also I realized the Ampere estimates report was from August, not June like I normally assumed. That means their sold-through as of June 2022 was probably somewhere between 11.5 million (360's sold-through by its 20th month) and 12 million (maybe a tad north of 12 million at absolute best, saying something like 12.3 million). Combine that with MS's own tweets indicating market share from September or so (where they gave combined XBO & Series sold-through at 63.7 million), and most analysts figure XBO reached about 50 million LTD (Statista has 50.54 million for example) giving anywhere between 13.16 million - 13.7 million Xbox Series sold-through by that point.

The lower estimate seems possibly more realistic though because no analysts actually claim XBO sold under 50 million LTD), and their typical Oct - Dec unit allocations for their global markets (combined with factors impacting any demand i.e exclusive releases, big release co-marketing deals etc. or lack thereof). However, that gives them roughly 3 months selling ~ 2.5 million (low end) to shy 3.5 million (high end) globally when considering US & UK account for the vast majority of Xbox market share by far.

Personally I think a number between 16 million and 16.5 million sold-through for Series at close of 2022 is most realistic.

I love these predictions from your butt. They are super entertaining.

Microsoft hasn't had any event or interview or public presentation to give us a gauge on numbers.

If the US and UK were in spitting distance of 100k units for the year then I find it hard to believe that the series consoles haven't eclipsed 20 million units in total.

If Sony have sold 13 to 14 million in 2022 then Microsoft has to be at around 9 or 10 million imo.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Japan doesn't exist? Where ps5 outsold xbox lifetime last month alone. Also spainish sales are very close to 2 to 1 this year and i expect other places in europe to be the same, also i fully expect spanish sales to go 2 to 1 only thing holding back is stock issues in mainland europe.

Please provide actual numbers.

What's Spains ps5 sales for 2022 vs xbox? Total

Japan etc?
 

clampzyn

Member
If the product was in higher demand, which is possible with a good product following up a successful product as the word of mouth and anticipation works for you, it is possible for that to be true. I do not think the chip shortage issues affected everyone but them…

The reason why series s was on shelves is not that MS produces more stock, its because Series X and Ps5 was more in demand than series s but Series S still has a place for people that has a tight budget(which scalpers are aware of) so it still sold well. And obviously scalpers wants higher profit margin and they know Series X and PS5 is where the money at, not Series S.
 
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jm89

Member
Please provide actual numbers.

What's Spains ps5 sales for 2022 vs xbox? Total

Japan etc?
Spain for the year is almost 2 to 1 and more than 2 to 1 for total


Japan

 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Spain for the year is almost 2 to 1 and more than 2 to 1 for total


Japan


That's 90k units for the entire year difference....for Spain

A drop in the ocean.

Japan is one million units.
A large market....

I need to know where another 3 to 4 million units are coming from for the rest of the world.

I think its pretty obvious that MS has had a stonking 2022 with the series consoles. Not as much as ps5 but still an absolute shit load and no where near 2 to 1 worldwide.
 

Godot25

Banned
The gap will only increase
Not many people are arguing otherwise.
But I reaaaly doubt it will be as big as last gen. And that's the main point. Xbox Series is positioned better than Xbox One and that's without significant first-party games outside of Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 in first two years. I really don't think that we will witness same ratio between two of them as we saw last gen, since Microsoft will actually have exclusive content this gen starting this year.

Also, Microsoft is positioning itself in a way that they are not only reliant on sales of their consoles. They have strong presence on PC and subscription service for PC. That's why lower sales for Xbox consoles in comparison to PlayStation will not hurt them as much.

Which is not that great for Sony since they actually predicted that they will increase their market share this gen. Which I doubt will happen

_F9E6C0CB_2F38_4D14_8FC6_103919AD0D53_.png.jpg
 
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clampzyn

Member
Not many people are arguing otherwise.
But I reaaaly doubt it will be as big as last gen. And that's the main point. Xbox Series is positioned better than Xbox One and that's without significant first-party games outside of Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 in first two years. I really don't think that we will witness same ratio between two of them as we saw last gen, since Microsoft will actually have exclusive content this gen starting this year.

Which is not that great for Sony since they actually predicted that they will increase their market share this gen. Which I doubt will happen

_F9E6C0CB_2F38_4D14_8FC6_103919AD0D53_.png.jpg

Yea, and you forgot Xbox games is shared with PC space, overall Xbox has a brighter future being multi platform which means better profit margins. If the ABK deal goes through, can't imagine how WoW and CoD alone would make a big impact for the platform. Can't wait also when other emulation is available on xbox, MS really looking a lot further ahead not just being a great BC platform but also an emulation beast.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
You realize that 85% bit contains all the revenue they make from Sales on Steam?

How do you tie that to console sales?

for investors, MS breaks down revenue - software, hardware. None has so far complained about the level of granularity. And MAUs are a company wide metric reported for pretty much all their major revenue sources.
MAUs is a company-wide metric reported, but for Xbox those MAUs, which are the basis of their GP subscription, account for only 15% revenue.

The rest of the 85% of revenue comes from areas that do not primarily rely on MAUs.
 

jm89

Member
That’s actually pretty good fir Xbox. Soain is one of the strongest PlayStation markets since forever. PS4 to XBO was what? Something like 4:1?
It really isn't good for xbox at all. Sony clearly have not been prioritising spain.
 
That’s actually pretty good fir Xbox. Soain is one of the strongest PlayStation markets since forever. PS4 to XBO was what? Something like 4:1?
Europe barely had units in 2022 for the PS5 though.

MS had last year to actually close the gap in markets they normally wouldn't...this year the gap between both will only increase. Specially is PS5 is indeed getting a second release as a unique SKU, probably cheaper.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
MAUs is a company-wide metric reported, but for Xbox those MAUs, which are the basis of their GP subscription, account for only 15% revenue.

The rest of the 85% of revenue comes from areas that do not primarily rely on MAUs.

Again, this is incorrect.
There’s a direct correlation between active users on Xbox Live and revenue coming from the likes of Fortnite, COD, Apex etc.

Gamepass sub count isn’t the only figure xbox tracks when discussing user engagement.

To summarize for you, investors are aware of a direct link between console usage and revenue. So investors track the MAUs…stalled or negative growth would elicit concern.
 

jm89

Member
Have you even taken a look at the absolute numbers? A 2:1 ratio that yields a delta of 96k isn’t significantly impacting the overall picture.

You should stick to Japan. That’s approx a million unit difference.
No i won't be just sticking to japan.

Spain will paint a picture of most of europe, which as we have seen in the past is heavily playstation.

Your point about the difference not being impacting is irrelevant, i was replying to someone who was saying that nowhere else is there a 2 to 1, which nonsense.

Also total spanish sales gap between xbox and playstation is much higher then 2 to 1.
 
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