We don't know US numbers, yet, so not sure where you got that idea. Also, PS5 outsold the XSX/S by 4.3:1 in Japan, with a gap of 884K. I'd imagine there's quite a few territories in EU and ROTW with ~2:1 results. 2023 is really going to be interesting with PS5 stock being more widely available.
There's no reason for anyone to realistically assume Xbox Series are any further than maybe 16 million,
maybe 16.5 million (as an absolute limit) sold-through (as of end of 2022), which would be tracking behind XBO (18 million by January 2016 aka its 26th month on market), but ahead of 360. Otherwise I think MS would have made a PR statement about them being ahead of 360 & XBO life-to-date at the start of the year, just to kick off gaming-side with some good news as they enter their third fiscal quarter. They don't need to win NPDs to give such statements, FWIW.
Also I realized the Ampere estimates report was from August,
not June like I normally assumed. That means their sold-through as of June 2022 was probably somewhere between 11.5 million (360's sold-through by its 20th month) and 12 million (
maybe a tad north of 12 million at absolute best, saying something like 12.3 million). Combine that with MS's own tweets indicating market share from September or so (where they gave combined XBO & Series sold-through at 63.7 million), and most analysts figure XBO reached about 50 million LTD (Statista has 50.54 million for example) giving anywhere between 13.16 million - 13.7 million Xbox Series sold-through by that point.
The lower estimate seems possibly more realistic though because no analysts actually claim XBO sold
under 50 million LTD), and their typical Oct - Dec unit allocations for their global markets (combined with factors impacting any demand i.e exclusive releases, big release co-marketing deals etc. or lack thereof). However, that gives them roughly 3 months selling ~ 2.5 million (low end) to shy 3.5 million (high end) globally when considering US & UK account for the vast majority of Xbox market share by far.
Personally I think a number between 16 million and 16.5 million sold-through for Series at close of 2022 is most realistic.