Arkane was running into the same problem late Looking Glass was. You're right it can be profitable per dollar but it depends on the sales and the costs of development for what game you're making. If you keep falling below what you need too put the studio in jeopardy.
If Arkane was independent they probably would have closed down back in 2018. So the question is, how much does Microsoft want to spend on Arkane projects that are only managing to fight breaking even?
While I do agree that Redfall was too soon without testing the waters first, it doesn't seem like anyone forced them to do it. Looks like Arkane wanted to go in that direction themselves since they were working on the game before Microsoft acquired the studio and I don't see any evidence Bethesda forced them to make it.
To be honest we have Phil Spencer word that they let them do what they wanted. In Redfall case we have 3 to 5 group concerned: Xbox, Bethesda, Austin leadership, and the rest of Arkane Austin, that could be further divided between those who wanted to do Redfall, those who did not, the ones that had no voice in the matter( too new for example)...
Xbox explained that they wanted for Arkane to do what they wanted. Bethesda did not care, so it was easier for them to continue as planned. Arkane did not seem to have a plan B, so they naturally tried to make it work. Stopping a game in development often means mass layoffs. I would have prefered that solution. But it should have been from Xbox. Who had good reasons not to. Or Bethesda, but they lost any reason to make that kind of decisions. Xbox was honestly fucked no matter what. They just make it worse by putting too much marketing on what is a bad game.
I was talking about Microsoft. Zenimax of course would have had to push them into the project. Once greenlit. But Bethesda was the one I was questioning their involvement, and admittedly it seems they were more involved than I expected, but you skipped that part of the post.