Yes, and the Series X is constantly sold out and the Series S is doing better than expected early on because of that. Like I said, the Series X was expected to outsell the Series S early on, but that isn't happening because of the chip shortage. Once casuals actually have a reason to look for a console the Series S will outsell the X even more. Like we're talking about next gen sales when there's barley even any next-gen only games. You mention Halo and Forza, but those are on Xbox One.
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twilo99
Member
Only if it is a viable alternative...
you can force people to buy something they don't want in a free market.
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mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
1.5 years is nothing! Especially with Covid throwing the whole industry off. We won't know until the end of 2024 at the earliest. Unreal Engine 5 "JUST" came out weeks ago.
Snake29
RSI Employee of the Year
Hardware sales didn’t matter was something they told me. Maybe they care since GP isn’t growing that fast.
Of course.
PS5 was number one in the U.K. For April. We know what happens when PS5 gets plentiful stock.
Like I said, don’t know what difference anybody is expecting from last generation or what PlayStation consoles usually sell and over the competition.
PlayStation is a global brand with presence in every market.
3liteDragon
Member
Console sales matter all of a sudden to some…
I’m still predicting a 2:1 margin or higher by the end of this gen.
I’m still predicting a 2:1 margin or higher by the end of this gen.
Baki
Member
Subscription service will bring in more money but requires more upfront investment and it’s riskier and may not be as profitable. I believe the average Xbox or PS user spends less than $140 a year. Gamepass is $180 a year. That’s already a 28% increase in revenue. For these reasons, I can see Sony changing their stance in a few years.
iHaunter
Member
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Gotta stop you right there because the reality is this is not how it actually works. I think I see where you're going with this and, it doesn't work like that in practice. We have data from 3P sources and industry groups that, when you corroborate them against each other, you realize that many of these subscription services aren't pulling in anywhere near the RPU (Revenue Per User) you think they would.
GamePass falls into this as well and has a notably lower RPU than other services like PS+. If you take best-case numbers and calculate them you'll get GamePass pulling in roughly between $750 million - $800 million a year.
In other words, less than half of all subscribers are paying $180 or even $120 a year, and I suspect there was a similar disparity with PS Now and possibly other gaming subscription services too (at least possibly; since there were so many less PS Now subscribers it's possible they didn't have the threshold to where that disparity really took place, but having so many less subs would've meant less revenue regardless).
Bernd Lauert
Banned
He's not wrong. I put the number in historical context but mods deleted it. The chip shortage was extremely bad last FY, it is what it is.And immediately I'm reminded of why I stopped coming here after a long break.
sachos
Member
So 34% of games sold were physical? Thats pretty nice, i wonder how even that split looks when you remove digital only games without physical releases from the total sales number.
kyliethicc
Member
Basically, physical sales fluctuates more. Digital sales are more even year round.
PS5 launch was a big quarter for physical. Quarter after that was very low.
Physical game sales spike every year from Oct-Dec. Christmas season, etc.
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Kerotan
Member
If people could buy pstcs it would increase. This shortage really sucks for Sony.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
That's just the threshold / ceiling of how many gamers would subscribe to a subscription service. I've been tracking this for so long, and now I'm pretty confident that's how it is.
Around 44.7% of PlayStation active user base subscribes to the PS gaming subscription service, and that number has always hovered around that ~45% mark. The same phenomenon can be seen with Xbox Live Gold / Gamepass, where roughly 41% of the userbase subscribes to the service: 25 million subscribers with a 60 million user base.
(I'm simplifying the calculation here because Xbox doesn't share official numbers and segmentation of how many people are subscribed from Xbox and PC. The actual subscription attach rate is actually lower on the Xbox side, but since we don't know for sure the # of subscribers they got from PC, I'm counting all of them as Xbox, slightly inflating the attach percentage. In my estimation, the attach rate on Xbox is around 30%.)
Kagey K
Banned
Yeah mostly to retards that want to console war.
Are you one of them?
Because it looks like you are.
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PropellerEar
Member
Are you calling yourself a retard?
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After 18 months
PS2 19.5M
PS5 19.3M (Covid, Omicron)
US and UK account for the majority of PS5+XBS sales.
A small lead, both globally and in the toughest markets, is a huge win for the PS5. Keep in mind that :
1) PS4 and XBO market shares finished 53/47 in US and UK
2) The ninth generation hasn't even started in the rest of the world, where the PS4 sold 75M
3) PS+XB = 170M
Source for this? Also are you saying that's the ratio for those markets combined or in each market?
IDG has different numbers unit the end of 2020
IDG graphs
Chris Dring's previous tweets did kinda confirm the UK ratio.
Baki
Member
Gamepass is currently on a steep discount.
I was putting forward the potential math on why Sony might consider a subscription model in the future. I think Sony will take a Disney+ Model (big marquee releases in theaters & them eventually streaming) and Microsoft is going for the Netflix model (everything streams day one)
Baki
Member
Correct. PS+ has hit its saturation point.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Yes because MS is making the right moves too for now. The problem everytime a company with seemingly endless money coming from other sectors enters another one and bankrolls itself through failures is that having all companies doing well is actually anti competitive/ hurtful for consumers.
What you want is for the small companies that have a great product to massively spank the bigger companies making mistakes else the biggest companies can in the end bankrupt the smaller ones and kill competition.
ChiefDada
Gold Member
What makes you say this? Not saying you're wrong, just curious for specifics.
I dunno Log, maybe check again when the effects of this once-in-a-century pandemic finally subside and we get a more stable flow of current gen releases.
Menzies
Banned
It may be a flat commensurate relationship as you say, against MAU, but could also be that a larger number of users have multiple consoles and are choosing to only subscribe to a single online service perhaps(?)
I'm not paying for GPU and PSPlus.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yes, hence the upcoming revamp. They are not just trying to increase PS+ subscribers, but now the focus is now on increase ARPU -- which, to be honest, makes the most sense and is an excellent strategy by Sony.
To add to that above discussion, it's not just that Sony/PS+ has hit the saturation point. Because PS+ is the most popular gaming subscription service, its saturation also tells us the state of gaming subscription services in the industry and what the general saturation point could be (not just the saturation point for PS+).
With the PS+ revamp, Sony might reach 60 million subscribers at some stage, but I don't see it going beyond that. Similarly, I don't see any subscription service in the gaming industry going beyond the 50-60 million mark.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
No evidence of that just yet. As I shared earlier, around that time frame, PS4/Xbox One also had a sales difference ratio of 1.4 -- pretty much the same as it is right now. If anything, this generation is so far following exactly the same trends:
- The console sales ratio of 1.3 - 1.4 in favor of PS
- Xbox outselling PlayStation in Q1 of 2015 (and now Q1 of 2022).
- PlayStation projecting higher console manufacturing in 2015-16 (and now in 2022-23)
Bernd Lauert
Banned
Delete.
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Possible, but even in that case, the percentage of such people would be too minuscule to make any meaningful impact. The majority of multi-console owners would subscribe to PS+ and XBLG / GP because these services enable online play -- just a guess. The subset of this group (multiple console owners + those who subscribe to only one of the two services) would be pretty small if I were to guess.
FF:Enhanced_Reality
Member
It's not like there's plenty of stock to go round. Most UK retailers are still targets of scalpers and can't get stock quickly enough.
Yea I saw your earlier post, it was a very shallow analysis. Somehow you've failed to notice the drastic changes in the industry and especially the drastic changes with Xbox. A much stronger Xbox brand worldwide, two popular and well received consoles, more than quadruple the amount of studios, two of the biggest publishers now part of Xbox, and an incredibly popular sub service. You need to dig deeper in your analysis than just looking at numbers, you need to ask yourself what actually caused the Xbox One to drop off in sales.
As I said, it's great to see that this gen is going to be far more competitive than last gen. It only means good things for the industry.
Zok310
Banned
You ought to know better than most…
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
You're relying on subjective factors; I'm basing my analysis on the data that is currently available.
The sales numbers so far do not reflect that. Again, Xbox is selling roughly the same amount as it did in the last gen -- only slightly higher, but then the gaming industry has also increased in size, and COVID has also helped.
Activision big games will remain multiplatform, so that doesn't count in this discussion. And I think you're overestimating the impact of Bethesda (at least until the next Fallout or Elder Scrolls release, which would be at the tail-end of this generation, around 2026/2027).
If you remember, Xbox announced Bethesda's acquisition a day before Xbox Series consoles pre-order became available. The idea was to prop up Xbox sales in comparison to PlayStation. An excellent strategy by Xbox, but at the end of the day, PlayStation still outsold Xbox at the same ratio as it did last gen when Xbox didn't have Bethesda.
So far, there is no impact of Bethesda's acquisition on console sales, is there?
Wouldn't that make an interesting analysis if those numbers were released?
It could show if the 25 Mio. GP subscribers are actual new users or people upgrading/switching to GP from XLG.
Wondering why they haven't updated them for a while ...
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The problem is we don't have data for the current-gen trends, not the understanding of last-gen ones.
For all we know - XB could be outselling PS 3:1 if the supplies were unlimited, or PS would be leading by the same - or really anything in between. But all we have to-date is manufacturing capacity, not market trends when it comes to hw sales.
Not to mention big market moves you refer to are less hw/box centric to begin with now - even for Sony.
SLB1904
Banned
I've seem some great prices on ebay, under £500. So probably soon won't be worth scalp it
Menzies
Banned
I can think of 80 billion reasons why Xbox will be more competitive this generation.
Will be interesting to see what CoD on Game Pass vs. $70 does, along with some more regular releases. Still expecting Sony to sell more with less games on PC and the PS4 momentum with them.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
Delete pt 2.
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Lognor
Banned
So people will get YEARS of value out of the series s before it possibly falls behind? Cool. Excellent value!
You're looking at numbers while ignoring any sort of context.
You're right, we haven't seen the impact of the Bethesda acquisition yet because Bethesda has yet to release an Xbox exclusive. That's kind of the point, unlike last gen we'll continue to see the impact of the Bethesda acquisition for years to come as they release big Xbox exclusives like Starfield throughout the gen. I'm not entirely sure what kind of impact you were expecting to see at the start when both Sony and MS are selling everything they can make and PS had two unreleased Bethesda exclusives lined up.
Activision doesn't count? come on dude, this just just blind wishful thinking, stop pretending you're doing some unbiased analysis if you're going to say stupid shit like this. Marketing of CoD alone has an impact on sales worldwide, but when you add the inevitable Xbox exclusive content and Game Pass release it will undoubtedly have an impact. And that's just one Activison/Blizzard franchise lol. It's yet to be seen what franchises will be exclusive or multiplatform going forward (that big new AAA survival game from Blizzard will probably be exclusive), but MS will 100% leverage them in other ways than just platform exclusivity.
And when you add all the other studios MS bought recently they have 30+ studios/teams working on exclusives and day one Game Pass games compared to the 5 studios they had last gen. If you can't see the difference there and how that will impact Xbox this gen then I don't know what to tell you. Keep watching the trends I guess lmao.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Wake us up when it goes from fantasy to fruition johnjohn
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I'm only talking about it from a tech perspective. Not gamer value.
It's happening in front of our eyes right now. You just gotta open yours.
MikeM
Member
Would be amazing if the titles all got FPS boost treatment.
Chukhopops
Member
If the PS5 sells 3.3M less than the PS4 in the first 15 months, and the Series sell more than the XBO in the first 15 months, then you can conclude with certainty the gap is narrower now than it was last gen at the same point.
kyliethicc
Member
PS5 is behind PS4 sales because PS4 had Knack.
PS5 will need Knack 3.
PS5 will need Knack 3.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Seems to me you’re reading tea leaves and painting them as facts. It’s a story you tell yourself, and I’m sure you told yourself another story during the Xboxone days.
“Wait for it” energy all over. Halo Infinite was going to be a mega deal, yet months removed from its release it’s as if nothing happened.
No, the Xbox One and its exclusives lineup was undeniably shit. That's why it's silly to compare it to the Series X and S because they couldn't be more different. Halo came out and had a big launch, now we're moving on to the next set of exclusives... Did anyone really think Halo was going to be the only exclusive needed all gen? It's going to take a constant flow of exclusives from their 30+ teams to keep the Xbox momentum going, something the Xbox One never had.
Only a month now to wait to see what Xbox has coming over the next 12 months, I'm excited. Starfield is obviously going to be huge, but they'll be some more gems like Redfall, Contraband and Avowed.
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Thirty7ven
Banned
Gems, uncut even.
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