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Sony says PS5 stock shortages will stabilise, and sales return to PS4-era momentum by 2024

Call me hater or pessimistic but I really doubt it would sell as many as PS4 in 8 years.
Why not? The demand is certainly more than during the PS4 era. They have more studios, more 3rd party deals, more partners, more acquisitions coming, etc...
All they need is supply cause the demand seems to be there. Plus this gen seems to be going to be longer as well. If we get a Pro variation later, i can see this gen going for a while longer.

I'd call you a realist. According to the graph, at no point was the PS5 significantly tracking ahead of the PS4. At this point it's now tracking significantly behind the PS4 though.

They can draw whatever squiggly line they want from there as a projection. Doesn't mean it's sales will follow it. With PC now seeing more and more of it's exclusives, and Xbox eating into it's marketshare. What data points to their projection actually happening? I can't think of any, but I could've missed something.
The PS4 at this point was sitting comfortably at every store. At no point Sony managed that with the PS5 for now and we all know they had huge supply issues.
Ever since early April we see PS5 again ahead in every market except the USA in April...but somehow there hasn't been huge supply in that country yet.

If the Xbox managed to sell a few more units during the Jan / March quarter...that's already over. And unless Sony fails to deliver the expected units it won't change anytime soon.

Edit: Even with the supply issues the PS5 had, by the end of March the PS5 wasn't inside Amazon's top 100 of 2022 best sellers. It went up to #31, surpassing the Series X by the end of last month and it's now at #27 not too far from outselling the Series S at #22. It's just one chain but it's noticeable how much better their sales are since April.
 
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winjer

Gold Member
With AMD, Intel, nVidia and other companies moving towards the N5 process, that leaves more waffers in the N7 for consoles.
 

lh032

I cry about Xbox and hate PlayStation.
Seriously...an hour after my lenghty post, i read this, lmao



Sony was like "yeah no way we're going through the entire month of may without giving america some nice stock."
Looks like it'll be a huge shipment! If you guys haven't gotten one now is the time.

hmm.....perhaps this is preparation for upcoming June event : S?
Sell console > announce games > profit
 
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KungFucius

King Snowflake
imagine plenty of supply + price cut + spider-man 2. sony could easily sell 25m units in 2023 and 2024 if they had the supply.
Why would they need a price cut? Having them in the store at MSRP is pretty much a price cut. Also inflation has made the price relatively lower already. They just need more games and more supply. If they do drop the price it will be after things have fully stabilized and may just be in the form of bundles with a slightly reduced price compared to buying items separately.
With AMD, Intel, nVidia and other companies moving towards the N5 process, that leaves more waffers in the N7 for consoles.
This isn't really how it works. It may work out that way for adjacent nodes, but often older node lines are upgraded. Intel, at least 10 years ago, would convert their first high volume fab to the current node for every node and then strategically update others as needed. I can't imagine TSMC doing things differently. These nodes are different since they are now EUV but I expect that makes it even more likely that they will be upgrading the 7nm to 5nm and use the same EUV tools. Litho tools are always the most expensive so they get reused in a way that maximizes that investment. 28nm litho tools cost ~ 100 Million, these EUV tools now cost over 300M link If TSMC can reuse the same litho tools for 5nm there will be less 7nm capacity as much of it will get upgraded.
 

winjer

Gold Member
Why would they need a price cut? Having them in the store at MSRP is pretty much a price cut. Also inflation has made the price relatively lower already. They just need more games and more supply. If they do drop the price it will be after things have fully stabilized and may just be in the form of bundles with a slightly reduced price compared to buying items separately.

This isn't really how it works. It may work out that way for adjacent nodes, but often older node lines are upgraded. Intel, at least 10 years ago, would convert their first high volume fab to the current node for every node and then strategically update others as needed. I can't imagine TSMC doing things differently. These nodes are different since they are now EUV but I expect that makes it even more likely that they will be upgrading the 7nm to 5nm and use the same EUV tools. Litho tools are always the most expensive so they get reused in a way that maximizes that investment. 28nm litho tools cost ~ 100 Million, these EUV tools now cost over 300M link If TSMC can reuse the same litho tools for 5nm there will be less 7nm capacity as much of it will get upgraded.

With the strong demand for waffers, TSMC is focusing on building new factories around the world. Not so much converting them.

Converting a fab would mean having it, and the machinery stopped for many months.
When demand is so high, on all nodes, it's more profitable to just buy more machines from ASML.
 
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ParaSeoul

Member
extremely stiff competition.
Fast And Furious GIF by The Fast Saga
 

Vognerful

Member
Don't let wishful thinking distort the reality. Sony has already posted tones of metrics which indicates the PS5 is in much higher demand than the PS4 ever was.

The only road block is the supply which will be resolved soon, not "tough competition".
Weird take from you, where did I mention competition in my comment? But I know always live in the front lines so I forgive you.

If you are interested in my comment content, then I will iterate what I have mentioned long time ago when we discussed this subject.

There are very very few consoles that were able to sell more than 20 million units in an entire year. The PS4 only did it I think in its mid life after it had price cut and no competition at all from Xbox. We are not even talking about 25 million that some people drool about. I don't even the switch was able to make it when it is way cheaper.

Scarcity helps in pushing consumers to buy stuff why faster than they would, and thus affect the stuff sell.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Seriously...an hour after my lenghty post, i read this, lmao



Sony was like "yeah no way we're going through the entire month of may without giving america some nice stock."
Looks like it'll be a huge shipment! If you guys haven't gotten one now is the time.

Yup.

Its funny how some just latched onto PS4 era momentum by 2024...and didnt account for what its gonna take to get to that point.

Stock has to get better before 2024 to reach that point. Not exactly in 2024.

One can look at the graph and see that.

I'm not so sure. It's definitely possible, but if Xbox continues to eat marketshare, MS would probably move forward at around 8 years.

So maybe Playstation is gonna have a 10 year generation?
If Sony stated that Jan - Mar 2022 they were gonna have even less stock...
And MS wasnt able to close the gap significantly even then....

I dont know what else to say.

They basically said for 3 months, we wont be able to compete like we did last year.

Seems like now they will.

Welp.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Going by the line graph Sony made it seems they have inside scoop that roughly midway in 2024, chip availability will increase a lot so sales accelerate. But in the meantime (2 years), sales will be about a straight line across.
 
What market share? Last time I checked they both have supply issues. If you mean the Series S which doesn't seem to have a supply problem,thats still iffy because people who want the best next gen machine are not going to settle for a budget option.
You're free to make whatever excuses you wish. That goes for predictions as well. The fact remains that Xbox has gained marketshare at this point compared to last gen. So that's the marketshare. In order for Sony's projection to come true, they not only have to gain everything back that's been lost so far... They would then have to increase it's sales disparity compared to Xbox beyond even last gens. You're free to believe that will happen. I see absolutely nothing in either trends or data to suggest that.
The PS4 at this point was sitting comfortably at every store. At no point Sony managed that with the PS5 for now and we all know they had huge supply issues.
Ever since early April we see PS5 again ahead in every market except the USA in April...but somehow there hasn't been huge supply in that country yet.
It was a forgone conclusion early this gen that not only had Sony allocated more chips, but that MS also had to use much of the available series X hardware it did get for upgrading it's server infrastructure. Of course none of that was ever mentioned when the PS5 outsold XBS somewhere. No... it was just because Playstation is awesome. Now that Xbox seemingly sells competitively in places, and all of a sudden everyone's a logistics expert with inside knowledge regarding Sony's supply numbers in the US. Tell me again, exactly how many units did Sony supply to the US in April again?
If the Xbox managed to sell a few more units during the Jan / March quarter...that's already over. And unless Sony fails to deliver the expected units it won't change anytime soon.
Sure, sure. Let's assume you're completely right, and PS5 tops Xbox going forward. Fine. Except you're still wrong. Sony has already failed to deliver units, so you should edit out the word "unless" in that sentence. If they hadn't already failed to deliver units, then they wouldn't have fallen so far behind the PS4 at this point. Sony has FAILED to deliver the expected units up to this point, and you're here arguing "unless they fail to deliver their expected units". You mean their revised expected units.
Edit: Even with the supply issues the PS5 had, by the end of March the PS5 wasn't inside Amazon's top 100 of 2022 best sellers. It went up to #31, surpassing the Series X by the end of last month and it's now at #27 not too far from outselling the Series S at #22. It's just one chain but it's noticeable how much better their sales are since April.
Yes, this completely proves your point. The PS5 almost... let... that... sink... in... almost sold as well as the Series S on Amazon. And thats your argument for why the PS5 will not only outsell Xbox going forward, but do so at a larger ratio than the PS4 did vs the Xbox One. Oookay, good luck.
 

ParaSeoul

Member
Right. Xbox series is doing better than xbox one and all of sudden it's stiff competition. I'd like to see xbox even sell 15m units In a year first, never mind competing with playstation. Once stock is readily available, PS5 will have no problem selling 20m units or over a year.
Stiff competition in my opinion would have been if the same people there when the 360 launched were still in charge. First and last time they were a serious threat.
 

ParaSeoul

Member
You're free to make whatever excuses you wish. That goes for predictions as well. The fact remains that Xbox has gained marketshare at this point compared to last gen. So that's the marketshare. In order for Sony's projection to come true, they not only have to gain everything back that's been lost so far... They would then have to increase it's sales disparity compared to Xbox beyond even last gens. You're free to believe that will happen. I see absolutely nothing in either trends or data to suggest that
Gained back some of the market share lost last gen you mean.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Going by the line graph Sony made it seems they have inside scoop that roughly midway in 2024, chip availability will increase a lot so sales accelerate. But in the meantime (2 years), sales will be about a straight line across.
Because they do...
This seems to have something to do with it to offload some strain nodes. Same timeframe.

 
If Sony stated that Jan - Mar 2022 they were gonna have even less stock...
And MS wasnt able to close the gap significantly even then....

I dont know what else to say.

They basically said for 3 months, we wont be able to compete like we did last year.

Seems like now they will.

Welp.
Well of course you don't know what to say. You have no idea how significantly they closed the gap.

They can "basically say" whatever they want. Unlike yourself, I don't take what Sony says as gospel. PSN hacks and rootkit scandals taught me that long ago.

Welp indeed.
 
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ParaSeoul

Member
No. I simply mean gained marketshare. Xbox had a percentage of marketshare compared to Playstation. They then increased that percentage.

No need to try and spin it. If you don't have a valid counterpoint, just let it go.
That makes it sound even worse than how I spun it honestly.
 

reksveks

Member
Did some maths hopefully correctly.

So assuming a 4% Global Console CAGR and 3 years to hit 50% Market Share

d5Haf7L.png


That would need Sony to grow at 8% annually and the rest of the market to basically be flat or grow at 1%

AFlIUMK.png


For Sony to hit 53%, they would need 10% growth and the rest to decline about 1.3% a year

4bxbMhc.png


If the CAGR was closer to 8% (the old number which I don't really trust), the other players could grow at 2% whilst Sony would need to grow at 13% annually.

Anyone spot something off?
 

Vognerful

Member
Did some maths hopefully correctly.

So assuming a 4% Global Console CAGR and 3 years to hit 50% Market Share

d5Haf7L.png


That would need Sony to grow at 8% annually and the rest of the market to basically be flat or grow at 1%

AFlIUMK.png


For Sony to hit 53%, they would need 10% growth and the rest to decline about 1.3% a year

4bxbMhc.png


If the CAGR was closer to 8% (the old number which I don't really trust), the other players could grow at 2% whilst Sony would need to grow at 13% annually.

Anyone spot something off?
Sorry but could you explain in much simpler terms?
 

reksveks

Member
Sorry but could you explain in much simpler terms?

No worries, basically Sony is saying that their target is to go from 45% of the console gaming market share to 50%+.

I wanted to figure out how much that meant the Sony had to grow and the others had to change.

- Year 0 aka 2021 lets assume the console market was 10bn* usd
- Using IDG's estimate for 4%, in Year 3, 2024, the total console market will be 10*(1.04)^3 = 11.2bn usd.
- Year 0 we know that Sony that has 4.5bn console revenue and the rest have 5.5bn
- That means we can figure out in Year 3, what Sony needs aka 50% of 11.2bn so 5.6bn and therefore the remaining revenue belonging to the rest
- Once we have the Year 3 numbers, we can then figure out how much Sony needs to grow every year, and how much the rest do/don't grow.

I don't 100% know what 'market' Sony is referring to for their goal of 50%+, but ultimately if Sony wants to grow to 50% of all console revenue then it seems that the other players have to be pretty stagnant or the total market has to grow around 7-8% a year.

Don't know if that's helpful.
 
Did some maths hopefully correctly.

So assuming a 4% Global Console CAGR and 3 years to hit 50% Market Share

d5Haf7L.png


That would need Sony to grow at 8% annually and the rest of the market to basically be flat or grow at 1%

AFlIUMK.png


For Sony to hit 53%, they would need 10% growth and the rest to decline about 1.3% a year

4bxbMhc.png


If the CAGR was closer to 8% (the old number which I don't really trust), the other players could grow at 2% whilst Sony would need to grow at 13% annually.

Anyone spot something off?
Math seems to be correct. Makes you wonder how Sony wants to achieve that 50% marketshare. Seems entirely unrealistic.
 
No. I simply mean gained marketshare. Xbox had a percentage of marketshare compared to Playstation. They then increased that percentage.

No need to try and spin it. If you don't have a valid counterpoint, just let it go.

you have no evidence though that those customers were previous playstation owners. if xbox sell more than they did last gen doesnt mean sony ends up with a lower total than ps4. your using percentages to fabricate a non existant narrative.
 
Unless I'm misunderstanding, I think it's saying FY24 so units should be more readily available by mid-2023

Nah, it's November 2023 - November 2024.

But it's also a bit misleading; they're already increasing production capacity this year to 18 million for the FY. They had about 18 million PS4s for its third year, so I don't know if PS5 production will be 18 million for the next fiscal year, it could be lower most likely but how much lower is the question.

After that, though is where they're forecasting supply should healthily outpace what PS4's was by that point. PS4 did 19 million in its fourth year so PS5 should be at least 20 million, likely higher than that (which it'll have to be if they expect to outsell PS4 in LTD).
 

Zannrebel

Member
you have no evidence though that those customers were previous playstation owners. if xbox sell more than they did last gen doesnt mean sony ends up with a lower total than ps4. your using percentages to fabricate a non existant narrative.
The console market has shown us every gen since ps2 that the console sell around 170-180 million units. It doesn't change so if xbox sells more than last gen then the PS5 will most likely sell less than the ps4. Nothing show the console market increasing. There's your evidance.
 

Heimdall_Xtreme

Jim Ryan Fanclub's #1 Member
Nah, it's because they want to transition to a subscription based model as opposed to a hardware one. So growing a console install base won't be as much of a priority to them.

https://amp.interestingengineering.com/sony-ceo-says-company-will-move-away-from-gadgets

Edit: Might have misunderstood your post. And this was actually what you were getting at?
Hello!!

It may be, although many situations have also happened that have affected companies in general, also on the one hand if you develop a video game with a high budget and few consoles have been sold, it is logical that something has to be done to recover those development costs .
 
The console market has shown us every gen since ps2 that the console sell around 170-180 million units. It doesn't change so if xbox sells more than last gen then the PS5 will most likely sell less than the ps4. Nothing show the console market increasing. There's your evidance.

well sony themselves are forcasting the PS5 to pass the PS4 when launch aligned by 2024. so unless they are very wrong or the PS5 sales drop off a cliff 2025 onwards, it will at the least sell on par with the PS4. your also forgetting about multi console owners.
 

lh032

I cry about Xbox and hate PlayStation.
The console market has shown us every gen since ps2 that the console sell around 170-180 million units. It doesn't change so if xbox sells more than last gen then the PS5 will most likely sell less than the ps4. Nothing show the console market increasing. There's your evidance.
the number of gamers are increasing every year.....
And multi console consumers.....
And PS5 sold the fastest compared to PS4
 
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Hello!!

It may be, although many situations have also happened that have affected companies in general, also on the one hand if you develop a video game with a high budget and few consoles have been sold, it is logical that something has to be done to recover those development costs .

Yeah that probably did play a big part in their decision. I also wonder if all the industry consolidation going on has something to do with it. Since it looks like they"ll be less big third party publishers around, that'll mean less royalty money for the platform holders. So they figure they need their first party content to make up for it.
 

Nautilus

Banned
The stock shortages have crippled PS5's momentum. It's not going to be the hot new item in 2024.
Not to mention that by then Nintendo is likely to kickstart the 10th gen and Sony and MS will have to deal with that too.

This global crisis that we are going through right now has really damped MS and Sony's strategy.
 

Melon Husk

Member
"We're lagging in sales now but we'll totally make up for it next year"
"Sony says" = "Sony attempts to predict the future with a made-up chart"
Yeah, nah, I don't think PS5 is going to overtake PS4 in sales.
 
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Nah, it's November 2023 - November 2024.

But it's also a bit misleading; they're already increasing production capacity this year to 18 million for the FY. They had about 18 million PS4s for its third year, so I don't know if PS5 production will be 18 million for the next fiscal year, it could be lower most likely but how much lower is the question.

After that, though is where they're forecasting supply should healthily outpace what PS4's was by that point. PS4 did 19 million in its fourth year so PS5 should be at least 20 million, likely higher than that (which it'll have to be if they expect to outsell PS4 in LTD).
Sony is considering year 2 finished with this past FY according to the chart:

eX6QfjP.jpg


Which would put year 4 at April 2023-March 2024. Even though unit production is increasing, the prediction is less cumulative sold than PS4 by the end of year 3, with higher growth in year 4.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Just remembered that you should not trust a graph with no figures. PS4 sales were way bigger it it's later years than shown here as steady numbers.
That didn't make sense either to me unless sales of PS4 were in reality basically the same linear amount per year.
 
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