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Sony says PS5 stock shortages will stabilise, and sales return to PS4-era momentum by 2024

Sony is considering year 2 finished with this past FY according to the chart:

eX6QfjP.jpg


Which would put year 4 at April 2023-March 2024. Even though unit production is increasing, the prediction is less cumulative sold than PS4 by the end of year 3, with higher growth in year 4.

Huh. That's interesting. So they're going by the fiscal year then, not from the time the system released?

Welp that means supply will see a big increase even earlier than I thought. That's a good thing.
 

njean777

Member
I can see it happening, I know (anecdotal yes) many people that want one but do not want to go through twitter or all the BS to get one. They just want to go into the store (or Amazon) and buy one. So we shall see if this happens.
 
Sony is considering year 2 finished with this past FY according to the chart:

eX6QfjP.jpg


Which would put year 4 at April 2023-March 2024. Even though unit production is increasing, the prediction is less cumulative sold than PS4 by the end of year 3, with higher growth in year 4.
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF
 
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Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Xbox and PC are going to eat up a good portion of those consumers.
Xbox has the same "sales" problems, and people have been saying that about pc for over 20 years and it never happens, the overlap just isn't significant(and it didn't change anything even when all ms exclusives ms went over day 1, 6 years ago).

Don't get me wrong, if xbox fixes their supply chains first they could make a dent, but so far it's all just promises from either manufacturer.
 

reksveks

Member
Thought I would plot this out

d5AjgQW.png


aKpaZwg.png


So 18m this year, would get them to 37.3m at the end of the FY and then using their graph, so they would have to sell 10.1m between March 2023 and Sept 2023. (Highest so far for that period is 7.5m during 2017)

I don't think it's crazy but a bit unlikely personally but its going to be interesting to see if it happens cause it would pretty much guarantee a 22m annual sales total.
 
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So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF

Well they're expecting to sell 18 million this fiscal year, which would leave only 12 million for FY '23, and we know they'll have a lot more than 12 million (though likely less than PS4 had in its FY '17).

It should be easily doable tbh, I'd be surprised if they couldn't hit 30 million in that time.

Thought I would plot this out

d5AjgQW.png


aKpaZwg.png


So 18m this year, would get them to 37.3m at the end of the FY and then using their graph, so they would have to sell 10.1m between March 2023 and Sept 2023. (Highest so far for that period is 7.5m during 2017)

I don't think it's crazy but a bit unlikely personally but its going to be interesting to see if it happens cause it would pretty much guarantee a 22m annual sales total.

I don't see how it's unlikely tbh; once you get into the middle years is when consoles tend to sell the most anyway. For PS that's traditionally been roughly 18 million - 20+ million units per year.

You also have to remember that PS's a very global brand and as long as they can meet most of the demand in the global markets, selling 10 million between March - September should be no problem. Say for example if America and Europe are their two biggest markets and an even split, in America that could work out to around 500,000 units per month. It would likely be less because I think the totality of Europe is probably a bigger market than NA but that's a continent vs. a country.

You're also forgetting emerging markets like China in this; if Sony are forecasting growth in those markets as well then they should be able to meet those projections.
 
Well they're expecting to sell 18 million this fiscal year, which would leave only 12 million for FY '23, and we know they'll have a lot more than 12 million (though likely less than PS4 had in its FY '17).

It should be easily doable tbh, I'd be surprised if they couldn't hit 30 million in that time.



I don't see how it's unlikely tbh; once you get into the middle years is when consoles tend to sell the most anyway. For PS that's traditionally been roughly 18 million - 20+ million units per year.

You also have to remember that PS's a very global brand and as long as they can meet most of the demand in the global markets, selling 10 million between March - September should be no problem. Say for example if America and Europe are their two biggest markets and an even split, in America that could work out to around 500,000 units per month. It would likely be less because I think the totality of Europe is probably a bigger market than NA but that's a continent vs. a country.

You're also forgetting emerging markets like China in this; if Sony are forecasting growth in those markets as well then they should be able to meet those projections.
I don't think demand is the issue here. It's the supply.
 
I don't think demand is the issue here. It's the supply.

But if they're putting these forecasts out, they must have a plan to address the supply. Even if it means paying for chip priority; there are other rumors that they will be adopting the 6nm process too so that gives them both 7nm and 6nm chips to work with, effectively increasing supply.

If supply issues are tied to other things in the pipeline like storage, they can roll out other versions like a real Digital system that's actually available with some revamped storage (like using a large but slower microSD for cold storage and a 64 - 128 GB sized NAND cache with same SSD I/O as the regular PS5).
 

yurinka

Member
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.
In the current fiscal year they will be selling Horizon 2, GT7, MLB, Ghostwire, GoWR, multiple TLOU stuff, FFXVI, Forspoken, the PSVR2 launch stuff and markeing with 3rd party multi stuff like CoD, Howgarts Legacy, Avatar, FIFA, NBA2K and more to be announced, plus other multi superseller stuff like Elden Ring. Plus also have their refurbished game sub which will improve a lot its numbers.

This huge amount of super sellers in normal conditions this would be a super strong year in hardware sales. In addition to this, we know there is a monster demand of people who wants to buy the console but can't.

If they had enough chips, they would sell more than these 30M in a year and a half, even in less time. The amount of hardware sales will depend on chip availability, because there will be more than enough demand.

Last year they were promised a certain amount of chips that they didn't receive on time so later had to lower their estimations. We're seeing now apparently way more shipments than usual, pretty likely because these are the chips promise to have on time for the previous FY but were sent with a 2-3 months delay. Maybe they managed to correct it and as compensation for being late last fiscal year the chip manufacturer will give PS5 more attention this year so will produce more chips for it than previously planned, who knows.

Not to mention that by then Nintendo is likely to kickstart the 10th gen and Sony and MS will have to deal with that too.
I think it's laughable to count Nintendo devices a generation ahead of the other ones that are in the same timeframe and have way more powerful hardware.

In this case, I think the Switch successor, lets call it Switch 2 or Super Switch, I asume will have the hardware that was leaked and being called "Switch Pro" by the fans. Basically a Switch but slightly more powerful and capable to upscale their games to 4K using that Nvidia tech. This would make it BC (addressing the concern shown recently by a Nintendo exec) with Switch and would fit inside in that extra long lifecycle the Switch is going to have according to their execs.

You and others will consider it a "10th gen" device, I'll consider it as the same gen than PS4 Pro and XB1X because will have relatively similar specs and won't be able to run top tier (in tech side) PS5 and Series X AAA games.

Btw, according to you how is decided that a new generation starts? In which generation is the Playdate portable included?
 
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thebigmanjosh

Gold Member
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF
It’s ambitius but not unrealistic. They projected 18m this FY, which would mean only 24m units produced the next year to hit 30m.

I’m guessing during that time there will be a revision and/or price cut.
 

Gobjuduck

Banned
Xbox has the same "sales" problems, and people have been saying that about pc for over 20 years and it never happens, the overlap just isn't significant(and it didn't change anything even when all ms exclusives ms went over day 1, 6 years ago).

Don't get me wrong, if xbox fixes their supply chains first they could make a dent, but so far it's all just promises from either manufacturer.
Switch, Xbox and PC parts are easier to get than PlayStation. Sony by far has the most supply issues, regardless of demand. It’s going to trip them up for half the gen.

Xbox is winning more bids on parts. Which is why we are seeing 2:1 sales differences in North America. Sony has the demand advantage, but as the hardware ages that demand diminishes. We saw a huge shift from Xbox to PlayStation last generation. As for this generation, two of my friends have switched to Xbox, because it’s available.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Switch, Xbox and PC parts are easier to get than PlayStation. Sony by far has the most supply issues, regardless of demand. It’s going to trip them up for half the gen.

Xbox is winning more bids on parts. Which is why we are seeing 2:1 sales differences in North America. Sony has the demand advantage, but as the hardware ages that demand diminishes. We saw a huge shift from Xbox to PlayStation last generation. As for this generation, two of my friends have switched to Xbox, because it’s available.
I guess the only that can be said is....lets see how the rest of the year plays out then.

By December we should have a good idea if Sony were correct about getting the stock issues sorted out.
 
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF

are you confusing PlayStation with Xbox? because thats easily doable for sony if they have the supply. also there may be stuff we aint factoring in, like a slimmer redesign and/or price cuts.
 
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Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Switch, Xbox and PC parts are easier to get than PlayStation.
Not sure where all the other platforms come into play here given noone in this thread was discussing them. But if we play that game - PC parts are simultaneously easy and much harder to source then any console. So on average - you could say they're at least as hard to get.

Xbox is winning more bids on parts.
My comment was that XBox had supply issues, which they do (they aren't keeping their parts in stock particularly well either), and so far they've been handily outsold as well.
While the relative positioning of bids to Sony is relevant to the second part - it has no bearing on the first.
Also I assume you have some kind of info/source backing that claim.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.
IIRC only Vita and PS3 failed to hit that sales velocity at some point in their lifespans. And I could be wrong about PS3.
But can they manufacture that many in 18m is another question.
 
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reksveks

Member
IIRC only Vita and PS3 failed to hit that sales velocity at some point in their lifespans. And I could be wrong about PS3.
The other thing to just remember is when PS4 did it, it was when there was 2 Q4's in the timeframe. The highest 18months starting April and Ending Sept the following year for the PS4 was 27.5m (Apr 16 - Sept 17), so it's not crazy but i still personally a little unlikely given the numbers so far from JP, ES, NPD.
 
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF
20 million in a year and other 10 in half a year is unrealistic to you? Even the PS4 did that why not a console with more demand?
 

zedinen

Member
1."Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period"

They changed PS5 design and chose a multiple supplier strategy in May.

PS1 - 34.50m (July 1, 1998 - December 31 , 1999)
PS2 - 34.64m (July 1, 2001 - December 31, 2002)
PS3 - 23.0m (October 1, 2009 - March 31, 2011)
PS4 - 31.6m (October 1, 2016 - March 31, 2018)


2."They not only have to gain everything back that's been lost so far"

MAU
PS4 84.0m (March 2022) PS3 36.1m (March 2015)

China PS5 670K (week 72 sell-through) PS4 250K (week 72 sell-through)

Japan (Famitsu) PS5 1,635,115 (week 80 sell-through) PS4 1,605,227 (week 80 sell-through)

India PS5 named best selling console in 2021. An anonymous source claims that PS5 beat Xbox Series X/S by 10:1

UK PS5 best selling console in April

US Sell-Through Time PS5 80K in 82 minutes vs PS4 80K in 9 days

EU PS5 has poor sales compared to PS4, but Sony will recover quickly.
 
So Sony expects PS5 to be outselling PS4 by September 2023 or so.

Just to have some real numbers, at the point where PS4 and PS5 intersect on the above graph, PS4 had sold roughly 50m consoles. This means Sony expects to sell close to 30m consoles within a 18 month period.

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF

You got them there. It's not going to happen.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
20 million in a year and other 10 in half a year is unrealistic to you? Even the PS4 did that why not a console with more demand?
It's doable if stock is there.

But PS5 has only sold 19M in about a year and a half and that even included big pipeline stock for launch and Xmas 2020.

So selling 30M in the same time frame is selling a bit more than 50% extra units.
 

Gobjuduck

Banned
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reksveks

Member
They changed PS5 design and chose a multiple supplier strategy in May.

PS1 - 34.50m (July 1, 1998 - December 31 , 1999)
PS2 - 34.64m (July 1, 2001 - December 31, 2002)
PS3 - 23.0m (October 1, 2009 - March 31, 2011)
PS4 - 31.6m (October 1, 2016 - March 31, 2018)
As mentioned before the ps4 number includes two holiday periods. That won't be the case for the next 18 months.

China PS5 670K (week 72 sell-through) PS4 250K (week 72 sell-through)
The China stat was extremely misleading, China got its official ps4 launch something like 70 weeks after the global launch.
 

Corndog

Banned
Depends what you mean. I don't believe they have any yield issues with the SOC it's just that the manufacturer isn't able to produce enough wafers. Same goes for other firms such as Nvidia, AMD and Microsoft. Even Nintendo to a certain extent.
So you are saying it is the SOC?
 

Melon Husk

Member
I think it's crazy that we are 1,5 years into the generation and you not only still can't go into a stroe to buy a PS5 but have to rely on Twitter bots to get a console. What a clusterfuck.
Eh, early adopting a new console gen is not worth it anyway. It takes 2 years to get out of the "launch title" rut. Waiting for a "slim" version of a console is always worth the wait. A large library of quality titles, plentiful discounts, cheaper hardware.... The 90s was different as each generation actually offered something innovative and never-seen-before (and they didn't have slim versions).
 
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JimmyRustler

Gold Member
Eh, early adopting a new console gen is not worth it anyway. It takes 2 years to get out of the "launch title" rut. Waiting for a "slim" version of a console is always worth the wait. A large library of quality titles, plentiful discounts, cheaper hardware.... The 90s was different as each generation actually offered something innovative and never-seen-before (and they didn't have slim versions).
Early adopting used to be the first 6 months or so…
 

Swift_Star

Banned
2024 is far away. PS4 was best by midgen (2017-2018), I dont think that momentum will jump ahead of the ps4. Xbox and PC are going to eat up a good portion of those consumers.

Maybe a Pro model is in the works, and it will make for that jump. But announcing a pro early could affect sales of the base model.
Source?
 
So by the time the gen is halfway over we'll be able to reliably purchase hardware, for which we can play cross gen games on. This one is going to be remembered so weirdly. It might even be talked about as the catalyst for going all-streaming.
 
So by the time the gen is halfway over we'll be able to reliably purchase hardware, for which we can play cross gen games on. This one is going to be remembered so weirdly. It might even be talked about as the catalyst for going all-streaming.
Wichard from DF thinks there's a real possibility that console generations won't really exist anymore. He might be right.
 
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