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Switch successor is at least two years away, research firm estimates

IbizaPocholo

NeoGAFs Kent Brockman

Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis provided his predictions in a note provided to VGC, following Nintendo latest financial results on Tuesday.

Ampere’s Harding-Rolls said he believes Switch sales will now inevitably decline until the platform holder reveals its next-generation console.

“Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape,” he told VGC.

“Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.

“Nintendo has forecast 21 million Switch shipments in the April 2022 to March 2023 fiscal period, down from 23m in FY22. Depending on if the next Zelda game releases before the end of March 2023, that could be considered to be a little conservative.”

He added: “A new Zelda will prompt some existing Switch flagship or Lite owners to upgrade to the OLED version of the console. Even with the release of Breath of the Wild 2 in 2023, Ampere is expecting Switch sales to continue declining year-on-year as it enters the late stages of its lifecycle and a next-gen console is revealed.”

Harding-Rolls said that Ampere is not expecting an upgraded Switch ‘Pro’ to be released before a next-gen Nintendo device, but that even without a revision, it believes Switch could become the best-selling console ever.

“Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024,” he said.

“By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold-through 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.”

On Tuesday, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa reportedly declined to comment when asked about when his company might unveil its next games hardware.
 

billyxci

Permabanned.
2024 seems about right.

this year we'll get Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet. Next year we'll get BOTW2 and another Pokemon game probably. Maybe another Pokemon game in 2024 and that'll be it for Switch.

I love this console and don't want to let it go. Hopefully the next console is a Switch 2. Same hybrid design but with more powerful internals. I know they like to try wacky stuff and I respect them for that but please just keep the Switch going!
 
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2024 seems about right.

this year we'll get Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet. Next year we'll get BOTW2 and another Pokemon game probably. Maybe another Pokemon game in 2024 and that'll be it for Switch.

I love this console and don't want to let it go. Hopefully the next console is a Switch 2. Same hybrid design but with more powerful internals. I know they like to try wacky stuff and I respect them for that but please just keep the Switch going!
The dream is Switch 2 with the ability to play Switch 1 carts, and digital library carrying over. But I'm just going to expect the worst and be surprised if I'm wrong.
 

billyxci

Permabanned.
The dream is Switch 2 with the ability to play Switch 1 carts, and digital library carrying over. But I'm just going to expect the worst and be surprised if I'm wrong.
Exactly! They don't need to go create a whole new console with a new gimmick. Surely Nintendo can't be stupid enough to do that? Switch is going to overtake PS5 and Gameboy. It has a decent shot at becoming the #1 best selling console of all time. They've struck gold so just play it safe this time!
 

TLZ

Gold Member
Perfect. Take your time Nintendo so that the cheapest Nvidia SOC in 2026 will match or better the previous console generation.
You expect the next console in 2026? That's way too late. And 2026 isn't 2 years from now. I expect it in FY 23-24.
 

DonF

Member
Impressive numbers. I don't know who is buying though... Super fans who own more than one? Lite converters? Lite owners with stick drift?

Well, one thing is certain, they HAVE to name the next console better than Switch U, in fact, get completely rid of the term switch, even if it's a convertible console.
 

Akt

Banned
I feel like it is too late for me to buy a Switch now.

Definitely would buy the next console if it could do everything Swirch could, but at higher framerates.
 

Z O N E

Member
Yeah, I'm fine with that, with the chip shortages, it's clear that they don't want to rush it out the doors and have stock be an issue.
 

Romulus

Member
I'm wondering how they'll handle the hardware. We were playing Switch games pretty soon on pc after release. I think as successful as the Switch was, maybe they'll overlook it again. I hope so, I look forward to playing Switch games at higher fps etc
 
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gamer82

Member
I doubt I will be jumping on the next one day one I just haven't played my switch as much as I would have liked. I do hope they actually make a powerful machine next time and we get 4k, but seeing how the other consoles are fairing with 4k I think from Nintendo its probably a big ask. I wish they make a VR device (NOT CARDBOARD) to go with the console , I would love to play Mario games etc in VR that would be awesome and they could finally release Mario kart VR and a Metroid game in VR
 
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Celcius

°Temp. member
Would this be the first generation that a console hasn't gone down in price?
The ps4 was originally $400 and then went down to $300 for the slim model once the pro came out. An upgraded Switch version (OLED) is out for more money, but the OG Switch is still the original $300.
 
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Reallink

Member
I don’t mind as long as they give me the games I want…..

You should, cause the games you want will look like standard definition smeared with vaseline bilinear texture filtering on any contemporary television, with frequent frame drops to the 20's. Portable mode will meanwhile flirt with VHS resolution and even lower quality settings. An objectively marred and inferior experience seems like something anyone sane would mind.
 

Danjin44

The nicest person on this forum
You should, cause the games you want will look like standard definition smeared with vaseline bilinear texture filtering on any contemporary television, with frequent frame drops to the 20's. Portable mode will meanwhile flirt with VHS resolution and even lower quality settings. An objectively marred and inferior experience seems like something anyone sane would mind.
I put over 100+ hours to both XC1 and XC2 on my Switch with no problems and I wont have any issue enjoying XC3.
 
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night13x

Gold Member
I just started my own think tank group and after 20 minutes of serious stressful research and analytical thinking, we have come to terms of our prediction that the switch 2 (which will have 3 pop out screens) will be released by the end of 2022 for the price of 399.99.

Make sure to pre-order at gamestop and re-up your pro membership, or else.
 

spons

Gold Member
I don't even care anymore at this point, just make that shit backwards compatible and I'm in.
 

Woopah

Member
Would this be the first generation that a console hasn't gone down in price?
The ps4 was originally $400 and then went down to $300 for the slim model once the pro came out. An upgraded Switch version (OLED) is out for more money, but the OG Switch is still the original $300.
It is the platform longest without a price cut, though of course there is a cheaper version in the form of the Lite
2024... That's fine. I still have a ton of Switch games to finish.

The only thing really tough to wait for is...

29 June, it's only 10 days
 

spons

Gold Member
Would this be the first generation that a console hasn't gone down in price?
The ps4 was originally $400 and then went down to $300 for the slim model once the pro came out. An upgraded Switch version (OLED) is out for more money, but the OG Switch is still the original $300.
The Switch got an official price cut in Europe to 285 euros including taxes. No idea why this didn't happen in the US.
 

Kataploom

Member
On 2024 it will probably have close to ps4 raw performance, not counting additional computing units or any AI upscale technology
 

killatopak

Gold Member
Probably the same specs as Steam Deck with lower cost due to tech improving. $300-$400 seems to be the sweet spot for them.
 

Sosokrates

Gold Member
I think it makes sense to make a switch 2 when it can have gen9 compatibility, something about twice as powerful as a steamdeck.
 
On 2024 it will probably have close to ps4 raw performance, not counting additional computing units or any AI upscale technology

PS3. Nintendo never do the graphics race after the Gamecube. People should not be expecting a huge hardware jump in terms of graphics power when it comes to Nintendo's hardware history.

I expect higher than Xbox 360 graphics at hopefully 60.

But knowing Nintendo it'll be 30fps.

We'll see.
 
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PS3. Nintendo never do the graphics race after the Gamecube. People should not be expecting a huge hardware jump in terms of graphics power when it comes to Nintendo's hardware history.

I expect higher than Xbox 360 graphics at hopefully 60.

But knowing Nintendo it'll be 30fps.

We'll see.

Switch is more powerful than a Xbox 360?

When it comes to Switch 2 I expect it to be at least Xbox One to PS4 level when it comes to graphics.
 
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Kataploom

Member
PS3. Nintendo never do the graphics race after the Gamecube. People should not be expecting a huge hardware jump in terms of graphics power when it comes to Nintendo's hardware history.

I expect higher than Xbox 360 graphics at hopefully 60.

But knowing Nintendo it'll be 30fps.

We'll see.
This must be a troll response, Switch is already more powerful than either console lol, and around PlayStation 4 Pro in 2024 isn't out of the equation considering XSS GPU is around that but with more modern tech.

BTW, I'd like at least a supplemental power dock this year of the next one, I don't care about the games looking the same actually, I just want their 30 fps games to run smooth (60 games run flawless mostly)
 
This must be a troll response, Switch is already more powerful than either console lol, and around PlayStation 4 Pro in 2024 isn't out of the equation considering XSS GPU is around that but with more modern tech.

BTW, I'd like at least a supplemental power dock this year of the next one, I don't care about the games looking the same actually, I just want their 30 fps games to run smooth (60 games run flawless mostly)

It's a troll post and it's funny to read it. Personally graphics haven't wowed me as much as they used to since Tomb Raider released on the PS4. To me it still looks great. I go back to play that game every year. So yeah for me it would be fine if the Switch 2 just targets the Xbox One/PS4 Specs. And I have a PC which I still game on which is more powerful than my PS4 and even than I don't notice any difference.
 
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