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[Airbus Jr]

Hogwarts because its multi platform.

Zelda Breath of the Wild 28 m copies on nintendo alone

Not many game these days can reach that number ( even being a multiplatform titles)

Zelda is a behemoth ip

 

[Tams]

I've watched all Harry Potter movies and I enjoyed them a lot, but I'm not a huge fan of that world. I've played almost every Zelda game multiple times and I can't get enough of that franchise.
Considering those facts I still have to say it is quite hard to say.

What we know is, that Hogwarts Legacy is getting released on ALL modern gaming platforms except phones and Zelda only on the Switch.
So I'll say that Hogwarts will sell more but Zelda will be the GOTY.

But there are over 114 million Switches out there. Sure, nowhere near that many Switch owners will buy TOTK, but if Hogwarts Legacy, that doesn't look to be that great gameplay wise, manages, say 60 million, that would be massive news.

What I'm getting at, is that if only a quarter of Switch owners get a flagship Nintendo title, it will probably sell more.

 

[Orta]

Hogwarts will likely be the same kind of mainstream trash like COD and FIFA so it'll sell shitloads more, irrespective of quality.

 

[UniformDeliverance]

Hogwarts by a wide margin.

It’s on more systems.
IP appeals to a broader market, goes beyond your typical gaming enthusiast. Unless the game completely face plants, it’ll be a megaton launch

 

[Lupin25]

TOTK will be a system-seller.

Probably one of the Switch’s last to release before new hardware’s revealed. Nintendo will be going all-in with the marketing for this game.

Hogwarts will definitely sell well releasing simultaneously on PC, but Zelda should still have longer legs even with Hogwarts’ last-gen version coming later.

 

[ADiTAR]

The main issue I've seen from Hogwarts is that I still don't understand what the game is. It seems like everything you do is kinda meandering, I don't know what the gameplay loop is. They didn't show it as an adventure game really, because I don't know what the adventure is, and we haven't seen any set pieces yet. It almost seems like a Harry Potter simulation of sorts, but what's interesting about it. It's like they built this world without the gameplay part. From what I've seen thus far.

All they showed from Zelda is gameplay snippets that give a very subtle tease, and it's clear that there's more they aren't sharing. I doubt they worked on this game for around 4 years just to add islands in the sky.

 

[AngelMuffin]

Can’t see Hogwarts beating out a possible masterpiece like TOTK, especially with Avalanche at the helm. It will do well out the gate but won’t have the legs of TOTK.

 

[AmuroChan]

Zelda will sell close to 30 million copies. Hogwarts Legacy's sales could vary depending on reviews and how much influence legacy media and woke mob campaigns have on the casual consumers. If I have to put a number to it my guess is Hogwarts Legacy sells around 18 million copies.

 

[belmarduk]

Breath of the Wild sold 27.79 million copies.

Personally, I'll buy both games. I hope Hogwarts Legacy will be good because I'm buying it mostly to piss off ResetEra.

 

[soulbait]

Short term will be Hogwarts. However, the controversy around JK will hurt the sales. Without it, I think it would take a long time for Zelda to take over. Hogwarts is multi platform, so it has a larger market it can sell to. This is only if the game reviews well. If it does not, then Zelda will have no problem.

Over the long term though, Zelda will continue to sale as Hogwarts gets discounted and the sequel is announced. So I think after two years, Zelda will become the leader.

 

[GymWolf]

Probably zelda.

That one is gonna be a good\decent game at the very least like the first one, while HP can very be utter shit other than having good production values.

Low scores for the quality\mad journalists are gonna make some people rethink about the purchase.

On the other hand, HP is probably a bigger name than zelda, no matter how much nerds in here can think otherwise, and the game is gonna be released even on the fucking nokia n-gage.

 

[Thabass]

Zelda. In my mind, there's no competition between the two.

 

[sandbood]

Breath of the Wild sold 27.79 million copies.

Personally, I'll buy both games. I hope Hogwarts Legacy will be good because I'm buying it mostly to piss off ResetEra.

29.49 million units to be exact. WiiU version was at 1.7 million units sold as of Dec 2020.

 

[Lord Malachite]

Hogwarts Legacy will sell more in the short term, The Legend Of Zelda: Tears Of The Kingdom in the long term. Zelda will continue selling for years and eventually outperform Hogwarts.

 

[Gambit2483]

Obviously Zelda:TotK...by even moreso if/when they announce it as a launch title.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Short term will be Hogwarts. However, the controversy around JK will hurt the sales. Without it, I think it would take a long time for Zelda to take over. Hogwarts is multi platform, so it has a larger market it can sell to. This is only if the game reviews well. If it does not, then Zelda will have no problem.

Over the long term though, Zelda will continue to sale as Hogwarts gets discounted and the sequel is announced. So I think after two years, Zelda will become the leader.

The people that bitch and complain about Hogwarts are a very small minority That were either never going to buy the game, or will secretly buy and play it while virtue signaling. It’s not going to hurt sales.

With that said, I still think Zelda will sell more.

 

[sullydabricks]

Zelda

 

[diffusionx]

But there are over 114 million Switches out there. Sure, nowhere near that many Switch owners will buy TOTK, but if Hogwarts Legacy, that doesn't look to be that great gameplay wise, manages, say 60 million, that would be massive news.

What I'm getting at, is that if only a quarter of Switch owners get a flagship Nintendo title, it will probably sell more.

You keep saying this, but the gameplay looks fine, and exactly the sort of thing people seem to want in a Harry Potter game.

That said, Nintendo sells a lot of games. Even if TOTK isn't the biggest selling game of 2023 (it will probably be whatever COD is up next) it will have long legs and probably end up selling 30-40 million copies. I doubt Hogwarts will get near there.

 

[skit_data]

Hogwarts Legacy might sell more in 2023 but over time Zelda with will definitely sell more copies

 

[Ghost23]

Hogwarts Legacy will sell more 100%, especially in 2023. I can’t wait to look back at this thread at the end of the year

 

[BigbyTheSheriff]

I won't be surprised if Hogwarts sells more. 15-20 mil copies by the end of 2023 shouldn't be a problem.

 

[jufonuk]

Seeing as one is available on multiple and the other only one.

Hogwarts has the potential for a lot more sales than Zelda.

But seeing as Zelda will be the better game overall. Quality always rises.
There might be a chance Zelda outsells Hogwarts in the end.

All the points to me.

 

[Deputy Moonman]

I'd normally say the multiplat title will sell more, but Zelda is a monster. It's a marathon not a sprint, and Tears of the Kingdom will have legs while Hogwarts Legacy won't be remembered after a year.

 

[Soodanim]

Zelda​	Hogwarts​
Popular franchise in gaming​	Mega franchise across all media​
Proven track record of quality​	Unproven quality​
Nintendo only​	Multi-platform​
Nintendo's long tail of sales​	PC sales may help in the long term​

Hogwarts will likely take the short term lead, and may even do well come Christmas, but over 5 years Zelda will be the winner

 

[Ronin_7]

Zelda should sell 30-40M lifetime.

With the inevitable Switch 2 version maybe 50M.

 

[Robb]

Some of these Zelda sales predictions seem very high to me. While I expect TotK to sell a lot of copies I’m not expecting it to outsell BotW. I’d guess it won’t hit as high of an average score on Meracritic either.

BotW was a bit of a phenomenon. I doubt that’ll apply to TotK.

Would love to be proven wrong though!

 

[Tams]

You keep saying this, but the gameplay looks fine, and exactly the sort of thing people seem to want in a Harry Potter game.

That said, Nintendo sells a lot of games. Even if TOTK isn't the biggest selling game of 2023 (it will probably be whatever COD is up next) it will have long legs and probably end up selling 30-40 million copies. I doubt Hogwarts will get near there.

Not just me.

The combat looks a bit stiff and wooden. Now, I don't think most Potter fans really care too much about that, and as long as they can explore Hogwarts with plenty of secrets, they'll be happy. The character expressions feel off as well.

I just don't think there as many Potter fans out there looking for a game as there are Zelda fans.

 

[Griffon]

Zelda sequels that release late in a console lifespan always do much worse than launch day Zeldas.

Hogwarts will do better.

I really wonder why nintendo isn't establishing a policy of always having Zelda at the launch of new hardware. The difference in sales and popularity is so fucking huge I don't even know why they're bothering with those mid/late-gen sequels instead of locking it for next-gen.

 

[begotten]

You would think especially if it actually does release on Switch - that Hogwarts Legacy should beat it, lifetime. But not much difference.

 

[Moses85]

HL because TotK wont have a WiiU release

Spoiler

 

[bbeach123]

I think hogwart gonna sell 10-15mil , and thats a success .

Zelda 25-30m .

historically speaking , huge IP thats not a video game IP doesnt do much .

 

[mxbison]

Release year Hogwarts, long term Zelda.

Hogwarts also still has the chance of being average/bad while Zelda is pretty much a lock to get 90+ Metacritic.

 

[deriks]

Zelda. Hogwarts will have some initial hype then become another fart in the wind.

Basically that. And not to forget that Nintendo games sell well for a long time

 

[Lucifers Beard]

Zelda will be the better game without a doubt but Hogwarts will sell better purely because it will be on every console and PC.

If we’re looking at only at Switch, Zelda will sell better and it won’t even be close.

 

[Holammer]

Switch is getting long in the tooth and Zelda won't enjoy the launch game advantage with bundles and when new owners need 2-3 games for the new system.
I think Hogwarts will do better and become Warner Bros's best selling game, at least till Nintendo re-releases TotK on its next system.

 

[Yoboman]

Spiderman outsold Zelda
Harry Potter has similar mainstream appeal, and pent up demand for a good game. Also on more systems

If its a good game hitting like 85 MC it will be a giant success. 35million plus

 

[KungFucius]

BoTW sales number Per Google:



Even if Tears of the Kingdoms sold half of that, it would still win.

While I agree that it will sell more, BoTW has had nearly 6 years to rack up those sales. TotK will have much less time unless it is ported to Switch 2. It will be an interesting trajectory for that game and I would imagine that the sales totals will also influence Nintendo's Zelda release strategy in the future.

 

[Tams]

Spiderman outsold Zelda
Harry Potter has similar mainstream appeal, and pent up demand for a good game. Also on more systems

If its a good game hitting like 85 MC it will be a giant success. 35million plus

That's $33 million for two games there bud.

 

[Moses85]

But there are over 114 million Switches out there. Sure, nowhere near that many Switch owners will buy TOTK, but if Hogwarts Legacy, that doesn't look to be that great gameplay wise, manages, say 60 million, that would be massive news.

What I'm getting at, is that if only a quarter of Switch owners get a flagship Nintendo title, it will probably sell more.

60 Mio HL

 

[Yoboman]

That's $33 million for two games there bud.

True but we don't have a breakdown

We do know BOTW hit 20m in Aug 2020 and Spiderman hit 20 m in October 2020

So 41 months to that milestone for BOTW and 25 months for Spiderman

Not unrealistic to say that Spiderman eventually overtook BOTW

 

[fart town usa]

Harry Potter will.

It's Harry Potter and releasing on multiple platforms.

 

[sandbood]

True but we don't have a breakdown

We do know BOTW hit 20m in Aug 2020 and Spiderman hit 20 m in October 2020

So 41 months to that milestone for BOTW and 25 months for Spiderman

Not unrealistic to say that Spiderman eventually overtook BOTW

Sony combined the sales of Spiderman and Miles Morales together. Another things to note, Spiderman was heavily bundled and had aggressive price cut by Sony in comparison to Zelda BOTW which mainly sold at full price and still retaining its MSRP despite nearly 6 years on the market.

Spiderman price history

Zelda BOTW price history

PlayStation megapack bundles at $199.99

If Zelda had the same bundles and price promotions like Spiderman it would've been over 50 million units by now.

 

[Cramoss]

Zelda no doubt

 

[Gambit2483]

I really wonder why nintendo isn't establishing a policy of always having Zelda at the launch of new hardware. The difference in sales and popularity is so fucking huge I don't even know why they're bothering with those mid/late-gen sequels instead of locking it for nenext-gen.

Who says it's not? How about we wait to actually hear from Nintendo regarding Tears of the Kingdom before we assume it's not launching with new hardware...as it should.

 

[Neo_Geo]

Hopefully Zelda, or motherfuck this goddamn useless simulation!

 

[TLZ]

I'll tell you the answer without voting:

Nintendo fans will vote Zelda.

Non Nintendo fans will vote Harry.

There.

 

[TLZ]

If Zelda had the same bundles and price promotions like Spiderman it would've been over 50 million units by now.

So you're telling me Zelda would jump from 28mil to 50mil+ because bundles? Lmao. No. That's dreamland talk. And you're also insinuating Spiderman sold more than half its total because bundles I guess. Lol c'mon. No need to exaggerate one and downplay the other. Both are great games and sold greatly on their own. Bundles would account to something like 10-20% of total sales maybe.

And, people buy consoles for the games. So if someone saw a bundle with Spiderman in it when they're looking to buy the console and Spiderman anyway, of course they'd jump on it. But they bought the bundle for the game, not the console. Consoles are bundled with awesome games that sell. Not the other way around. I don't get why some people want to always downplay a bundled game like it came for free and nobody wants it. It's the total opposite. They stick that game on the console box so you see it and be an incentive to buy the console. That's how they sell more consoles. Always been this way.

 

[.Pennywise]

The main issue I've seen from Hogwarts is that I still don't understand what the game is. It seems like everything you do is kinda meandering, I don't know what the gameplay loop is. They didn't show it as an adventure game really, because I don't know what the adventure is, and we haven't seen any set pieces yet. It almost seems like a Harry Potter simulation of sorts, but what's interesting about it. It's like they built this world without the gameplay part. From what I've seen thus far.

All they showed from Zelda is gameplay snippets that give a very subtle tease, and it's clear that there's more they aren't sharing. I doubt they worked on this game for around 4 years just to add islands in the sky.

Have you seen the last gameplay showcase?

 

[ADiTAR]

Have you seen the last gameplay showcase?

Yes. You can fly around, go to a specific place to fight, and create your own room where you can play with animals. Are you able to Abra Cadabra any person in the game? Make anything in the game float? I still didn't get what exactly is the game besides being open world and offering you a lot of options to do stuff, something is missing for me. It does look like an Assasin's Creed type of game where you just go about and do things, I guess for me there's no there there. Maybe another trailer will tie all the pieces together.

 

[EverydayBeast]

Zelda will shake record charts.