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[Three]

Yes they are breaking records because this is the peak. People who grew up in the 16/32 bit days are reaching their peak earning age. But what happens in 20 yrs when most of us die or get too old to play games?

Is there any data to suggest that the console population is aging? It's a nice hypothesis but do you have any data to show it happening?

 

[ANIMAL1975]

Notice i say when and not if.

And the main reason i say this is because the younger generations just arent into consoles like the older ones are.

I would really like to see some demographic info on the age of people buying consoles but just from my own anecdotal experience, kids would much rather play on their phones, or even on a PC, than on the living room TV.

My own prediction is one more generation of "traditional" consoles at most. After that it will either morph into completely VR devices or just go extinct.

 

[SHA]

You need a comical fictional answer for that question, otherwise it's impossible.

 

[OuterLimits]

Gonna be fun when high end GPUs are illegal due to first world energy/climate concerns. It has already started, and it's only going to get stricter.

This is probably true.

However, I always wonder what humanity will do in likely several thousand years or so if we indeed manage to halt climate change today. We are currently in a warmer interglacial period that usually lasts 10k to 25k years(we are 12k into current one). During glacial periods the ice can extend far south even into the United States at the peak.(goodbye bread basket of America).

So when the next glacial period begins and ice starts rushing south again, will humanity be scrambling to try and warm the climate? Not doing so would be catastrophic.

So hey, I say keep gaming on high end power hungry PCs. Then rest comfortably at night realizing you are doing your small part preventing a future apocalypse by ice. Lol.(besides the rich certainly aren't going to stop flying their private jets everywhere daily)

 

[pramod]

Dedicated hardware running optimized OS, being the same on every machine making devs optimization job easier and more efficient.

VS

Endless possible hardware combinations running that bloated thing called Windows, where you need to buy more powerful hardware, compared to consoles, to brute force the same results.


I would say... Never.
They might morph into streaming devices (real/digital) in the future, but you will always have either a box/stick connected to the TV or it will become part of the TV OS itself.

I know this sounds even crazier, but i think even for TVs, their days are numbered.

If you calculate how much time a typical kid spends in front of a TV vs on their phone or even a computer screen, im sure you will find that number continue to shrink.

 

[Ar¢tos]

I know this sounds even crazier, but i think even for TVs, their days are numbered.

If you calculate how much time a typical kid spends in front of a TV vs on their phone or even a computer screen, im sure you will find that number continue to shrink.

Ugh phone gaming..

 

[Tams]

When will we?

 

[NeoIkaruGAF]

When gaming is mostly digital, cloud, streaming and subscription services, consoles will all be Switch-like devices that allow you to play games when you’re away from your TV and want a better gaming interface than a phone or tablet can offer you. At home, all you’ll need to play games will be your TV and a controller, making plastic boxes irrelevant. That’s when consoles as we know them will go extinct.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

I honestly don't care, as I have basically all the hardware I'll ever use, aside from new Nintendo hardware provided they don't try to go the power parody route of their competitors. I have almost a thousand games on around a dozen systems, and I don't see myself buying any more Sony or MS hardware.

 

[tusharngf]

When cloud gaming becomes cheaper and less laggy that will be the end of consoles. PC and laptops are needed for general purpose operations so they will stay in the mainstream.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Thinking a $500 gamesystem which last for 7-8 years will go extinct.. lolz

 

[Filben]

The same could be asked about books and newspapers... and has been asked for over a decade now and while there's a decline they're not going anywhere in the next ten to twenty years. So mainstream consoles will probably around for the next twenty years and more niche consoles for many more.

If we talk about literal "extinct" as in only to find in some antiquarian store, then we're safe for many decades.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

I think the real concern is if developers run out of ideas, and run out of games to remaster/remake. After seeing the decline in originality each and every generation, I'd say the concern is real.

 

[Mung]

LOL

Consoles. Going extinct since 1972.

 

[Impotaku]

Ah yes GAF the pulse of gaming, with their spot on predictions. Hows that will nintendo switch be a success thread doing LOLOLOLOL

 

[cormack12]

I think it's more likely we reach the pinnacle of what production values are the ceiling for video games quicker than needing to constantly refresh hardware. Some of the big studio's are already on 5+ years between flagship IPs (discounting remasters/upgrades).

I think it's more likely we see a wider spectrum of consoles and let the studio's decide on the scaling to be honest.

 

[MacReady13]

I remember towards the tail end of the 360/PS3 generation many pundits saying the next generation of consoles will be the last. Then once the PS4/Xbox One consoles arrived people said there will be 1 more generation of consoles and that’s it.
Point is, these clowns say the same thing almost every generation and inevitably the next generation of consoles arrives and are as popular or more than the previous generation. Console won’t be dying for a long while. Streaming, cloud or renting games won’t stop consoles from thriving, no matter how hard some people want that bullshit to thrive.

 

[MadPanda]

My own prediction is one more generation of "traditional" consoles at most. After that it will either morph into completely VR devices or just go extinct.

Do you even know the meaning of at most? You want to say this could be our last console generation? How can we have productive discussion with such claims.

 

[rofif]

I hope never. pc fucking sucks balls in some aspects when you just want to play a game.
But the reality and sad thing is that consoles slowly turn into more and more into PCs... weak PCs that struggle to run unreal engine.
Death of custom console engines and console architectures is leading to pcfing.
But as of now - Consoles are still a good place to play, own physical games and do not bother with windows crap

 

[rofif]

Steam deck is much closer to a console than a PC. I mean all you can upgrade is the drive pretty much, right?

As far as powerful desktops most of the firms I work with have offloaded their heaviest lifting to cloud based hardware. You still have some high memory local machines but it's becoming less and less.

There's always going to be a need for powerful local rendering, memory, or storage just for things that aren't easy to put in the cloud like heavy IO and low latency workloads. But I don't think that's going to stop PCs from becoming a specialty item.

steam deck is a pc through and through.
But it made some aspects of gaming on PC really great that I would like to see standardized on windows.
You can change HZ, fps lock, show osd and other parameters right in game. You can hibernate in game and so on. Few good useful things.
Unfortunately, linux still sucks ass as soon as you go to desktop mode to do something.

 

[Puscifer]

Any minute now.

Consoles been dying since DSL became available in the early 00s don't you know!?

 

[Johnny Concrete]

When cloud gaming becomes cheaper and less laggy that will be the end of consoles. PC and laptops are needed for general purpose operations so they will stay in the mainstream.

Yup, but pc’s and laptops will also be only interfaces that connect to data centres.
Until we will have AR glasses that can replace monitors, then we don’t need those anymore either.

It’s hard to believe, but keyboard and mouse will disappear as well at some point. Especially when AI takes over most of our PC related tasks (including programming a game or game engine, yes).

 

[FStubbs]

Controversial take: the law of diminishing returns will kill off super high end x090ti GPUs before they kill consoles. Consoles would get hit next and will only survive by differentiating themselves. Nintendo could possibly survive in such an environment, but current PS and Xbox would be gored by commodity hardware leveraging the fact that power no longer matters.

What won't kill anything: cloud/streaming gaming.

 

[Lunarorbit]

Never. Way too much of the world doesn't have fast enough internet speeds to go full streaming.

If a service like Netflix ever makes actual games instead of mobile bait then it will become more of an issue

 

[Draugoth]

If quantum computing becomes widely available (wnt happen ever) the world would basically dissapear since it would break every single digital security system in the world, making banks, secret agencies, govs, etc 100% exposed.

It's the natural evolution for computing honestly, much more efficient data transfering method which means we wont have need for the ammount of hardware we have today. Digital security would very likely move on to other methods.

But more efficient gaming streaming is probably going to kill PC gaming and consoles.

 

[rodrigolfp]

pc’s and laptops will also be only interfaces that connect to data centres.

Intel, Nvidia and AMD will sell hardware only to data centres but not to general public? Doubt.

But more efficient gaming streaming is probably going to kill PC gaming

Streaming like GFN with RTX 3080 will have those cards only for themselves and not to sell to the public anymore? Doubt.

 

[ReBurn]

When will record players go extinct?

When hipsters go extinct

 

[Daymos]

Well the switch convinced me that portable is better than tv and then I couldn't find a PS5 to play elden ring (and it sucks on PS4) so I got in to gaming on a laptop.

Now even though I have a PS5 I prefer to play on the laptop if it's a 100 hour rpg.. then I can sit in the living room while the wife uses the tv. It's just BETTER when you want to play 5 straight hours.. that's why console + tv sucks.

 

[Yoda]

Not with currently available tech/infrastructure. Streaming is the obvious "console killer" but there's no getting around the extra latency induced w/the cloud. Which means the "next gen" would play select genres worse (shooters, moba, etc...).

If anything cloud streaming could replace mobile games (only need to developer for one platform vs two) as the latency requirement for those type of games generally isn't an issue (in most cases).

 

[Faust]

The moment consoles go digitally only is the day consoles die for me - but I don't see this happening. Even the greediest publishers aren't arrogant enough to kill off a large portion of its player base that simply cannot handle the large download limits thanks to data caps, slow download speeds, and other unsavory ISP fuckery.

 

[AtomicStarving]

As long as there is FIFA, GTA, COD, Fortnite, and big free to play games in general, consoles will never die, period.

To be realistic, the console market has never been this big and healthy, and it's only going to get bigger, as PC hardware is getting crazy expensive and also consumes an astronomical amount of power to play in 4K.

 

[kruis]

Notice i say when and not if.

And the main reason i say this is because the younger generations just arent into consoles like the older ones are.

I would really like to see some demographic info on the age of people buying consoles but just from my own anecdotal experience, kids would much rather play on their phones, or even on a PC, than on the living room TV.

My own prediction is one more generation of "traditional" consoles at most. After that it will either morph into completely VR devices or just go extinct.

I think gaming PCs are more likely to go the way of the dodo than consoles. I just don't see how PC gaming is sustainable with component prices as high as they are today. It's simply ridiculous that for the price of a mid range gaming PC you can buy a PS5, Xbox Series X and Switch probably have money to spare.

 

[Radical Dreamer]

I hope never.

same brotha

 

[SoloKingRobert]

When Microsoft acquires a few more publishers...

 

[Fbh]

I think consoles as we know them will die when internet infrastructure around the world gets good enough that the vast majority of the target audience has access to a connection that makes streaming a viable option. The biggest problem with streaming right now is both internet availability and reliability.
Convenience is king and I think once there's a reliable option for more casual audiences to just press a button on their TV/Phone/Tablet/Computer and instantly be playing a game with no need to buy additional hardware they will eventually adopt it.

I say "console as we know them" because I could still see a potential audience for consoles and I think there's always going to be an enthusiast audience interested in rendering games locally rather than through streaming. I just think they'll be more premium priced as most "enthusiast" focused products usually tend to be.

 

[March Climber]

A lot of parents have already indoctrinated the next generation into liking all things Nintendo and that includes consoles.

 

[kruis]

I think consoles as we know them will die when internet infrastructure around the world gets good enough that the vast majority of the target audience has access to a connection that makes streaming a viable option. The biggest problem with streaming right now is both internet availability and reliability.
Convenience is king and I think once there's a reliable option for more casual audiences to just press a button on their TV/Phone/Tablet/Computer and instantly be playing a game with no need to buy additional hardware they will eventually adopt it.

I think the biggest problem with game streaming is profitability. Video streaming basically just requires servers and lots of storage. A few servers can handle hundreds of simultaneous requests streaming video files. Game streaming however requires dedicated hardware (either very expensive dedicated video cards or games consoles in server racks) and they can handle only a limited number of simultaneous sessions because every gaming instance is unique. Games streaming is much, much more expensive than video streaming. I don't see how video game streaming will ever become a profitiable side business for companies who can make much more money selling dedicated hardware to consumers.

 

[elladarapanta]

lol. consoles and pcs sell better than ever. Large part of the world has shitty internet speed and lag, data caps. Consoles will stay here for decades.

 

[CLW]

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Notice i say when and not if.

And the main reason i say this is because the younger generations just arent into consoles like the older ones are.

I would really like to see some demographic info on the age of people buying consoles but just from my own anecdotal experience, kids would much rather play on their phones, or even on a PC, than on the living room TV.

My own prediction is one more generation of "traditional" consoles at most. After that it will either morph into completely VR devices or just go extinct.

Get out of your little bubble.

All my nieces and nephews (and there are many, because we're a family of 8), all have TVs in the rooms and game on consoles there. Almost all of them, have friends will similar set-ups too.

I think you've biased yourself with your own anecdotal experience which seems pretty atypical to be honest.

Look at console sales. They're more popular than ever.

 

[Draugoth]

Streaming like GFN with RTX 3080 will have those cards only for themselves and not to sell to the public anymore? Doubt.

It's much more cheaper and accessible to pay $5 a month for gaming streaming service than to purchase a $1500 card every two years for most people worldwide.

When a affordable and good gaming streaming service pop up like Netflix did, it's going to kill mainline streaming consoles or greatly reduce it's appeal to the market. Not everyone lives in a first world country where they can but a gaming console/gaming pc for an affordable price.

 

[rodrigolfp]

It's much more cheaper and accessible to pay $5 a month for gaming streaming service than to purchase a $1500 card every two years for most people worldwide.

When a affordable and good gaming streaming service pop up like Netflix did, it's going to kill mainline streaming consoles or greatly reduce it's appeal to the market. Not everyone lives in a first world country where they can but a gaming console/gaming pc for an affordable price.

No one has to buy $1500 cards to game as they are not the only option to buy, even less every two years.

There are millions of people that can afford a gaming pc even in third world country, like mine.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Console gaming is still experiencing growth.

Notes: Rebooting gaming at gen 1 with the NES, removing the switch from console sales

Gen 7 - 189.26 million
Gen 6 - 273.03 (includes Wii)
Gen 5 - 209
Gen 4 - 144.68
Gen 3 - 112.25
Gen 2 - 77.91
Gen 1 - 30


Gen 7 is lower than Gen 5, which would suggest that the industry is shrinking, but as I mentioned I didn't include the Switch, meaning that even without considering one of the largest pillars in gaming, Gen 7 is still almost as big as Gen 5. In reality the Gen 7 number would be 303.59 doing even more than Gen 6. Though this counts both the Wii U and Switch as Gen 7.

Wii was a casual phenomenon, but Gen 7 still performed well without it. Gen 7 without Switch is still larger than Gen 4 by a large amount and Gen 8 will be larger than Gen 7.

Is mobile gaming becoming larger? Yes, but I think this is primarily due to non-gamers and casual gamers more than anything.

 

[gothmog]

steam deck is a pc through and through.
But it made some aspects of gaming on PC really great that I would like to see standardized on windows.
You can change HZ, fps lock, show osd and other parameters right in game. You can hibernate in game and so on. Few good useful things.
Unfortunately, linux still sucks ass as soon as you go to desktop mode to do something.

I guess I'm thinking more at a basic level. PCs are typically fully hardware and software customizable. Consoles are traditionally the opposite outside of the hobbyist community. Hybrid devices where the hardware is locked and the software has options ranging from locked down to fully customizable have become bigger and bigger. I would not personally call them PCs as they do not have the total flexibility of the traditional PC. They're not exactly consoles either. I think this hybrid area is where both devices to converge towards as the years go by.

Linux is fine depending on what you want and need. I stopped using it as a daily driver for work years ago as a MacBook lets you do the command line wizardry with a nice interface. Windows got better at doing similar work via things like WSL, but it still feels like a hack sometimes. The deck does have some great customization options that would be welcome on every OS.

I guess in the end my basic question is if Xbox put a full Windows mode on it would it be a PC or console?

 

[Johnny Concrete]

Intel, Nvidia and AMD will sell hardware only to data centres but not to general public? Doubt.


Streaming like GFN with RTX 3080 will have those cards only for themselves and not to sell to the public anymore? Doubt.

Yes, they will probably adapt and sell different products. Just like car manufacturers and gasstations are doing right now with the rise of EV’s.

 

[JLB]

Yes, they will probably adapt and sell different products. Just like car manufacturers and gasstations are doing right now with the rise of EV’s.

I cant imagine how EVs have any correlation here.

 

[Drizzlehell]

Next Tuesday.

I've already arranged everything.

 

[Physiognomonics]

With things like VR and AR, we'll always need some kind of cheap, powerfull and low latency hardware device so I think we won't see the death of that kind of device.

 

[Wildebeest]

Zoomers consoom less traditional TV and film content than older generations. What is the unique appeal to them for cinematic gaming or big screen TV gaming?

 

[Ansphn]

Never. A large # of people don't want to build their own PC to play games.