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Do you think the Nintendo Switch 2 will surpass the PS5 in sales?
- Thread starter SNG32
- Start date
J Required
Banned
People tend to forget what happened to PS4 in 2020.
Sony had to pull the plug early due to chip shortage, PS4 easily had at least 20m more units in it.
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LordOcidax
Member
Pokemon is going to help more.
LordOcidax
Member
Is not like we are in a perfect scenario right now…
Emmy Ator Best
Member
When exactly is this PS5 turnaround that will make it the best selling console ever supposed to happen?
Pataponpon
Member
honestly any of those: pokemon, zelda and animal crossing will pull 20 to 30M players to the new system each
nintendo has too many juggernaut system sellers that appeal to different publics, i dont think PS5 can pull one exclusive that sells like these games at all
Deerock71
Very Poor Hoice of Wor
I'm guessing they believe GTA VI is going to do that Hurculean task of lifting.
LordOcidax
Member
After the Switch 1, the popularity of some Nintendo franchises grew up exponentially. A New Smash game is going to do big numbers and move a tons of units.
Baemono
Gold Member
Looks like your eyes' value is dropping hard as real gold nowadays
ThatOneGrunt
Member
Hard to say with how unstable tech and the economy are. Will ram and chip prices continue to be an issue? Will the price of the console go up? Consumer growth is slowing and is only surviving by households with high income. Affordability will definitely be a huge factor.
Horseganador
Member
Both consoles are definitely going to be in the 100 million+ club and quite close, so it doesn't really matter much. Thinking that the Switch 2 will sell around 70-80 million like the 3DS doesn't make sense, and thinking that GTAVI won't sell many millions of PS5s doesn't make sense either.
FoxMcChief
Gold Member
The Switch 2 will do more, especially when you factor in the inevitable new models, bundles and special editions. And once households start having more than one being shared.
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BbMajor7th
Member
Hard to say in a market with so much instability. Considering the missteps with 1P this generation, the stock limitations, the lack of price drops and their biggest competitor trying to buy them out of business, it's wild that the PS5 has done as well as it has. It's had everything against it and has sailed through non-the-less. Switch 2 has entered an even tougher market - it'll be really interesting to see where things wind up.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
This is my take as well. A good portion of Switch 1 owners won't upgrade meanwhile PS5 will continue to be the best value hardware for AAA games for the next few years.
yurinka
Member
The best selling console ever is the PS2 (160M), I said 150M for PS5. That is assuming that the upcoming Sony portable isn't formally a PS5 portable, so its sales wouldn't count as PS5.
There are many top sellers (Bungie, GTA, ND, CoD, EAFC....) that still haven't released their first current gen only game. As soon as they keep releasing the dozens of millions of PS4 players that continue playing in the previous gen will keep migrating to PS5, something they are doing slower than usual until now. They have way more people to upgrade that PS2, PS4 or Switch had at this point.
As they keep incresing Sony's releases in PC, mobile and non-gaming adaptations (mainly movies and tv shows), plus as they keep releasing games partnered with Chinese and Korean teams, the big flow of new players will rise. Same will happen with people migrating from Xbox as Xbox consoles die and as getting all the MS games day one on PS gets the standard.
On top of this, the secret of PS4 being so active so late are the GaaS support, crossgen support and stronger game sub game offerings. Stuff that got more important in PS5 and very likely the market trend of these things getting more important will continue growing as it did since way over a decade.
And hopefully may end getting some day a substantial price cut (if the combo of calamities it had ends), something didn't have compared to the previous generations at this point launch aligned. This could boost sales too.
As of now PS5 is only under 2% behind PS4 in units launch aligned, slowly improving. Af of now it's on track to end selling around 120M like PS4, but with all these bumps I think it will be highly possible that will end getting 150M or more at the end of its lifetime.
LordOcidax
Member
Emmy Ator Best
Member
Yeah none of this shit is gonna happen. But I had a good laugh reading it. I'll give you that at least.
ReyBrujo
Member
3 years is kind of a stretch. How many units they have projected to sell in 3 years? 10 millions? 30 millions? 50 millions? How many memory modules will they request? I can understand 1 year but not 3.
COD? You mean that zombie thing with beavis and butthead? Bungie? EAFC is already doing what they can do but the bump is expected because this year has the World Cup, then sales stagnate.
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LordOcidax
Member
The PS6 is going to come out no later than 2028…
yurinka
Member
I'm serious, it's just common sense that anybody who isn't a gaming flatearther can see.
Yes, CoD. The same series that has 10 games in the top 20 best selling games in all PS combined for USA.
And yes, Bungie: the ones who popularized GaaS in console, broken the record of fastest selling new IP ever in gaming with Destiny and performed better with Destiny 2, plus made Halo.
EAFC continues being crossgen, and pretty likely will continue being released for PS4 until beyond the PS5 release. Very likely will be the last one of the list that will stop supporting PS4.
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LordOcidax
Member
I think you are the only one in the world that expect the PS5 to sell 150M… No joking… Not even the most hardcore PlayStation fan expect that.
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blacktout
Member
I know this is the coward's answer, but there's way too much uncertainty to know.
The Switch 2 probably has 8 to 10 years of life ahead of it in what already seems like a potentially highly volatile economic and political environment. We could see years of rising component prices coupled with growing job insecurity, both fueled by AI, or we could get a snap back to normalcy in like 18 months, or some secret third thing we can't even imagine.
Even the PS5's ultimate fate is up in the air, since we don't know how long the PS6 will be delayed for or whether it will see another price increase (or multiple price increases).
The Switch 2 probably has 8 to 10 years of life ahead of it in what already seems like a potentially highly volatile economic and political environment. We could see years of rising component prices coupled with growing job insecurity, both fueled by AI, or we could get a snap back to normalcy in like 18 months, or some secret third thing we can't even imagine.
Even the PS5's ultimate fate is up in the air, since we don't know how long the PS6 will be delayed for or whether it will see another price increase (or multiple price increases).
ReyBrujo
Member
What if the people are literally all the same, buying the same game again and again and not actually giving a bump in hardware just like FC?
LordOcidax
Member
Nope, every copy sold comes with a new console… That's how it works. Same for GTA6, consoles that are in the wild already are irrelevant too. 20 million GTA6 copy sold = 20 million PS5 sold.
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InterMusketeer
Member
In my mind, the Switch 2 has the potential for a stripped down Lite version to keep costs down. PS5 has only gotten more expensive over the years and I doubt that trend will change now. But ultimately they'll probably end up doing similar numbers.
PS5 helped by pandemic boost like Switch.
PS5 has gotten another boost from MSFT doing their best to not sell Series X's.
And GTA6 won't hurt at all. So it's possible (PS5 ends up on top) especially if the PS6 comes later rather than sooner.
S2 has some customer fatigue to fight. Gone is the novelty of the hardware. And now they also have to top their own peak 1st party output of the Switch era. Is their room for the franchises to excite and sell as they did in S1 era? They won't have pandemic boost. And S2 launched into a higher priced world which won't help.
PS5 has gotten another boost from MSFT doing their best to not sell Series X's.
And GTA6 won't hurt at all. So it's possible (PS5 ends up on top) especially if the PS6 comes later rather than sooner.
S2 has some customer fatigue to fight. Gone is the novelty of the hardware. And now they also have to top their own peak 1st party output of the Switch era. Is their room for the franchises to excite and sell as they did in S1 era? They won't have pandemic boost. And S2 launched into a higher priced world which won't help.
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Baki
Member
PS5 will be at 100m by September.
J Required
Banned
How? It was in shortage for 2 years. PS5 supply stabilized WW late 2022.
I agree with you on those points.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
I don't see a Lite version being radically cheaper as they can't strip out the expensive things like memory and moving to a chip on a more advanced node likely means the chip itself will cost more.
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Midway-AGNC-
Member
What if GTA VI comes to NS2?
cireza
Member
No need to put a laugh emoji on my thoughts. Unless I hurt your feelings ?
I think people are way too optimistic about how the landscape is shaping in terms of prices and performance. When you release a new console, you need to make a good argument so people want to buy it. But as time passes, the gaps between generations is getting smaller and smaller, while the prices for components are getting higher. Resources are wasted on middleware and engines, making it harder and harder to create gaps. As one generation advances, games even tend to run worse because of how bloated they, and their engines, are. There was a time when engines ran better and got better optimized as years passed on the same hardware...
Because of this, I am not expecting this gen to end quickly at all. And even if PS6 does make it in 2028, it will take a long time to catch up with PS5, a console that will most certainly still be sold at a lower price. We are going to see much longer gens, and much longer overlaps between consoles out of necessity.
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SegaSnatcher
Member
Possibly, but it won't sell as well as the original Switch, that is for sure.
OuterLimits
Member
I don't think anyone expects it to. Granted, I'm sure some will declare it somewhat a failure because of that even though no PS gen has obviously equaled PS2 success.
sainraja
Member
Nintendo will likely have NS2 on sale in the market for longer than Sony will have the PS5, although I did read some news recently on there being a delay for PS6 or something. And for those keeping score, you already have an answer to this: PS4 (117 million units) vs NS1 (154 million units). This does not make the PS4 any less of a contender. Still a solid console from Sony with many good games to play on it. Same applies to the PS5.
So, if you go by the past, Nintendo will likely end up selling more. As long as they follow suit and keep the same momentum they had with the Switch 1.
So, if you go by the past, Nintendo will likely end up selling more. As long as they follow suit and keep the same momentum they had with the Switch 1.
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LordOcidax
Member
This is not about us… Is all about the Shareholders… Sony shareholders loves to see positive financial reports (And dividends + Bonuses), the PS5 probably is going to have a YoY decline in sales on their next report (Spain is not going to save it)… So, they don't want to see five years of red numbers. + People likes new things. If you think that Sony is going to wait until 2030 to release the PS6, you don't understand how business works.
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Mahavastu
Member
There are strong hints, that the PS6 will be delayed, which means the PS5 will have probably 1 or 2 more years compared to PS4.
If the prices don't go too high and maybe even go down with time (not likely I know) they should still sell a few millions in these additional years, even when the sales number will go down because the PS5 is getting old and most people who want one will have one by that time....
that is what a boost to sales does.
DEAD ORIGINAL
Member
No I think Switch benefited from COVID sales, and I think there's less excitement around it.
cireza
Member
We will see.
dragonyeuw
Member
I'd say that's the most perfectly sensible answer. I see people laughing at the idea that the Switch 2 will sell 3Ds numbers like they know something the rest of us don't. Do I think it will sell 3DS numbers? I don't 'think' so, but if I were a betting man I'd say it sells closer to that system than it does the original Switch. SW2 could sell 100m consoles and by no means would that be a failure merely because it didn't sell at a level that only 3 pieces of hardware in the history of console gaming managed to reach. The reality is the economy for the average person sucks, and 'market forces' are pushing the price of these systems into uncharted territory. All bets are off right now.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Not happening unless PS5 is the only main Sony console until 2032 and Nintendo just completely stops manufacturing Switch 2 after 2028 for the weirdest of reasons.
Possible.
If there was going to be a massive surge of PS demand due to Xbox declines, we'd be seeing it already. Xbox hardware sales have been more or less comatose since at least mid-2024, so over 18 months at this point, but PS5 is still behind PS4 launch-aligned despite a cratering in Xbox console sales numbers.
So yeah, PS revenue and profit margins are surging, but actual user install base is not. At least, not at a ratio you'd expect considering what's happened with Xbox. Suggesting that SIE are losing a decent portion of those would-be customers to platforms like PC instead.
Not to mention, PS4's numbers were artificially crippled due to COVID and Sony needing to shift as much production as possible to PS5 during that period due to chip shortages.
Had those things not happened, I think PS4 would have hit around 125 - 130 million by now, or even by the end of 2023 (assuming Sony'd then end production sometime in 2024).
Another thing: some people are under the assumption there'll be a gigantic sales surge for PS5 units once GTA6 launches. But they're forgetting that GTA6 has been selling PS5s since at least 2023....when the official trailer was first released.
GTA6 is a known quantity and many people anticipating it have already purchased PS5s or PS5 Pros ahead of its release. Some in part, because they thought the game'd be out by now instead of getting delayed (at least) twice. There'll be a bump in PS5 sales once GTA6 actually does release, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near the tsunami others are guessing/hoping it'd be.
In fact I kind of think GTA6 itself is going to come in a tad soft in terms of sales but that's a whole different conversation.
J Required
Banned
But..but...haven't you seen the record breaking launch!!!