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NPD January 2012 Sales Results [Up2: MW3 Sales, (Down ~50% Over BLOPS, But Still #1)]

M

Miles X

Member
Mpl90 said:
I think the situation in the home sector is both saturation at certain prices and economic depression.
In fact, 360 did perfectly fine, with almost 300k in its...7th year. And still costing 200 $. But it's what PS3 and Wii did that scares me, and make me think there's something going on not only linked to the fact prices are still "high" for a complete last mass penetration of the platforms...

However, no one saw this. Neither Nirolak :(

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35012400&postcount=517
Click to expand...

Wasn't 3DS at 4.1 end of 2011? Nintendo data and jvm's article suggests so. Even if it is around the 200k mark that's disastrous for 3DS. Normally systems are kinda slow after their first christmas, but the 3DS has been out for just under a year and just got a significant price cut and 2 big games. What more can Nintendo do save for a redesign later this year?

If it is sub 200k this month then summer is going to look abysmal.
 
M

mujun

Member
Clear said:
A poor showing in the US isn't arguably the worst possible scenario for Sony or Nintendo because they are in a stronger position in the other worldwide markets.

Looking at the media create numbers, PS3 isn't collapsing in Japan so those sales are going to be more statistically significant if the NA market is depressed.
Click to expand...

Every month. NPD threads are for U.S sales.
 
D

Dunlop

Member
Wow, I've been sick as a dog and forgot about this, can't believe how sharp the decline is.

I'm happy for MS at least
 
S

Solid07

Banned
This comes to no surprise as those systems were out long enough for almost every gamer to get the hardwares they need.
 
J

jman2050

Member
SapientWolf said:
Doesn't that start to slide into an insider trading grey area?
Click to expand...

I thought insider trading only referred to using information from within the company itself. NPD is an independent third party.

Sho_Nuff82 said:
It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free. We also get weekly US and global box office updates on the top 40 movies in theater count, revenue, and projected budget. For. Free.
Click to expand...

Good for them. That's not really relevant to whether NPD has the right to withhold their own information, which is all I'm saying.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Dynopia said:
Wasn't 3DS at 4.1 end of 2011? Nintendo data and jvm's article suggests so. Even if it is around the 200k mark that's disasterous for 3DS. Normally closes are kinda slow after their first christmas, but the 3DS has been out for just under a year and just got a significant price cut and 2 big games. What more can Nintendo do save for a redesign later this year?

If it is sub 200k this month then summer is going to look abysmol.
Click to expand...

No, 4.1 million was an estimate, since we never had an official word from NPD. But thanks to Nintendo, we had last month the official NPD numbers for December. So, this should be the number if the numbers from IGN article are from NPD and not from Nintendo's internal trackers.

And 205k would be good, not disasterous.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Mpl90 said:
If we suppose Nintendo is talking about NPD datas, and not internal datas...
At October, they were at over 1.65 millions. From now on, let's just pick the number, without the "over".
At November, they did "over" 795k. NPD Datas. So, 1.650.000 + 795.000 = 2.445.000
Then, for December, we hadn't the official Nintendo PR with NPD datas, but one much earlier, with the 4 millions figure. Then, with the investor meeting, we had finally the concrete NPD datas for December, since Nintendo uses them for the quarterly investor meetings

Dec, 2011:

360 - 1.73m
3DS - 1.60m
Wii - 1.06m
PS3 - 0.95m
DS - 0.63m
PSP - 0.26m

So, 2.445.000 + 1.600.000 = 4.045.000

Considering the 4.250.000 figure without the "over", we have a base of 205k. So, 3DS should have done at least 205k for the month, if the report in the IGN article is based on NPD datas.
Click to expand...

Would we be getting approximately 300K for Mario as well, or would this be the only useable data from their statements?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Just to point out: NPD will have 90%+ (est.) coverage of the U.S. video game retail market when they include Wal-mart. (I forgot before they also have TRU.) This will make their data even more valuable, since the margin of error should go down dramatically. They will likely retain, or even pick up, subscriptions and justifiably charge more for it.

I don't see how they will be going out of business any time soon, as much as some may wish for it.

Now, if only they could report monthly on digital data with some break-out categories like we get for hardware/software/accessories now... :(

Edit: And just to be crystal clear, I'm ambivalent about NPD's business. I am happy they cooperate with me, and I try to leave my personal desires out of it. I think we all know we'd love to have FREE DATA ALL THE TIME, but that's simply not realistic.
 
Clear

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
mujun said:
Every month. NPD threads are for U.S sales.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I understand that. What's wrong with placing those US sales figures in a global context though, especially when those numbers are exceptionally low across the board.

There's not a lot else to say given how scanty the information is.
 
J

jett

D-Member
jvm said:
Just to point out: NPD will have 90%+ (est.) coverage of the U.S. video game retail market when they include Wal-mart. (I forgot before they also have TRU.) This will make their data even more valuable, since the margin of error should go down dramatically. They will likely retain, or even pick up, subscriptions and justifiably charge more for it.

I don't see how they will be going out of business any time soon, as much as some may wish for it.

Now, if only they could report monthly on digital data with some break-out categories like we get for hardware/software/accessories now... :(

Edit: And just to be crystal clear, I'm ambivalent about NPD's business. I am happy they cooperate with me, and I try to leave my personal desires out of it. I think we all know we'd love to have FREE DATA ALL THE TIME, but that's simply not realistic.
Click to expand...

Can you explain why Media-Create releases data free of charge but with NPD it's like pulling teeth?
 
C

Captain Tuttle

Member
SapientWolf said:
Doesn't that start to slide into an insider trading grey area?
Click to expand...

Nah, the big players always have access to the best data. It's always been that way. My wife is a stock analyst and they pay Bloomberg some ungodly amount for access to their data stream. NPD is a third party that gathers data and then sells it. That's all. Insider trading would be if an individual or organization had access to Nintendo's earnings report the day before it came out and bought or sold stock based on that knowledge.

Anyway, on topic.

These are pretty ugly stats, looks like the usual gift card fueled post Christmas bump didn't happen or hasn't happened yet.
 
S

saucylion

Member
Clear said:
A poor showing in the US isn't arguably the worst possible scenario for Sony or Nintendo because they are in a stronger position in the other worldwide markets.

Looking at the media create numbers, PS3 isn't collapsing in Japan so those sales are going to be more statistically significant if the NA market is depressed.
Click to expand...

that just doesn't make any sense. The United States is the biggest market in the world for video games, unless you start comparing continents to it. So massive drops in the United States are much worse for sony than massive drops in any other country. It doesn't matter if those drops mean it could outsell the 360 worldwide. Sony would much rather sell a bunch of ps3s be outsold by the 360, than sell much less and be the best selling console of the year.
 
Petrae

Petrae

Member
Captain Tuttle said:
These are pretty ugly stats, looks like the usual gift card fueled post Christmas bump didn't happen or hasn't happened yet.
Click to expand...

I was thinking that gift card redemption would at least help software sales for residual Q4 2011 titles... but this never happened. Unless you count the ton of Skylanders stuff that moved in January.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Nirolak said:
Would we be getting approximately 300K for Mario as well, or would this be the only useable data from their statements?
Click to expand...

For Mario Kart, we only know that it did just a bit better than what it did in December in Japan for Famitsu. So, 1.1 millions.
This would mean over 200k for Mario Kart 7 in January.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Alright, in this case I'll just go with the 3DS number since it's the only one people seem fairly confident on. Thanks.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Sho_Nuff82 said:
It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free.
Click to expand...

What Japanese trackers give for free is 10% of what they give to subscribers and the cost for full data is ultra high.
 
M

mboojigga

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
So PS3 > Wii?

Meaning that Wii sold at most 139k, down 57% yoy or more. 0_0



It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free. We also get weekly US and global box office updates on the top 40 movies in theater count, revenue, and projected budget. For. Free.
Click to expand...

Live is a service that charges for online play and SEN doesn't. Welcome to the world of choices and perspective. NPD went a route that nets them money vs media create. It still has nothing to do with us receiving this information unless we pay like the other companies that choose to do so.
 
C

Captain Tuttle

Member
jett said:
Can you explain why Media-Create releases data free of charge but with NPD it's like pulling teeth?
Click to expand...
Maybe because there's competition in the Japanese market for this stuff? AFAIK NPD is the only one who tracks the US market.

I don't know.

Edit:
Chris1964 said:
What Japanese trackers give for free is 10% of what they give to subscribers and the cost for full data is ultra high.
Click to expand...
Didn't know this. Interesting.

Thanks
 
A

added_time

Member
When I look at that top 10 games, it makes sense that the game industry is down. You are either ok with buying the same stuff over and over or you aren't. I feel like the number of people that aren't is slowly increasing.
A lot of people are probably bored of the 3rd or 4th game in a series released within a single console generation. There needs to be some fresh ideas and new series, but with the current aversion to risk within the industry - I'm not even sure that new consoles will bring those ideas.

I can't even remember the last time I bought a retail game simply because there is nothing for me. Even the number of downloadable titles I'm buying has been decreasing lately. I hope something gets exciting soon.
 
R

Road

Member
Nirolak said:
Alright, in this case I'll just go with the 3DS number since it's the only one people seem fairly confident on. Thanks.
Click to expand...
I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).
 
D

DMeisterJ

Banned
That 205k 3DS number involves a fairly heavy form of rounding and optimism.

And even then, it's nothing short of lackluster.

I don't have an issue with it being in the OP though, I'll just take it with a mountain of salt.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Road said:
I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).
Click to expand...

Fair enough.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Road said:
I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).
Click to expand...

Well, I've just taken the numbers from past Nintendo PRs, which used NPD datas. And then, the numbers you took from this

16l.jpg


So, still NPD datas

I think the 205k estimate can be considered pretty reliable. At least this one.
 
AgentP

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.
 
LQX

LQX

Member
AgentP said:
I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.
Click to expand...

No software? Are you kidding? Or just speaking on the month of January?
 
Petrae

Petrae

Member
AgentP said:
I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.
Click to expand...

I believe that some sales may be replacements, but there's also residual effects of holiday marketing and a formidable slate of existing software for consumers to select from. True, there weren't any new games for January-- which was an industry-wide problem-- but Q4 and points before have filled the Xbox 360 library with a ton of options.

The "casual Kinect crap" phase appears to be waning.
 
R

Road

Member
Mpl90 said:
Well, I've just taken the numbers from past Nintendo PRs, which used NPD datas. And then, the numbers you took from this

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/120127/img/16l.jpg

So, still NPD datas

I think the 205k estimate can be considered pretty reliable. At least this one.
Click to expand...
As I said, too much rounding and estimating involved. The error just goes escalating.

And now someone said that number is wrong, so, yeah.

3DS sold between 150k and 250k is our best guess.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
AgentP said:
I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.
Click to expand...

Someone posts this every month, and MS always answer in their PR:

MS said:
During the month of January, Xbox 360 held five of the top 10 U.S. console game titles including: “Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim,” “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3,” “Battlefield 3,” “NBA 2K12” and “Just Dance 3.” (Source: NPD Group, January 2012)
Click to expand...

People buy 360s to play these games. What's driving the other consoles? Look at the rest of the top 10.
 
J

jmdajr

Member
I think some people were slow to jump on the HDTV bandwagon. Yes, there are still some if you can believe. A 360 would be one way to make good use of it.
 
Petrae

Petrae

Member
jmdajr said:
I think some people were slow to jump on the HDTV bandwagon. Yes, there are still some if you can believe. A 360 would be one way to make good use of it.
Click to expand...

I like this post. With the Wii not support high-definition resolutions, it's possible that the Xbox 360 was the next logical step for families looking to upgrade. I saw this happen a lot during my tour of duty in gaming retail over the last couple of holiday seasons.
 
D

Dabanton

Member
Are people taking AgentP seriously this is a guy who wrote the following with what i presume was a straight face.

AgentP said:
I've been playing FPS since you were in diapers, R3 is one of the best FPS of all time IMO. So let your hate for Sony let you pass up great games, you will be left with less games to choose from.
Click to expand...
 
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