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[Gameplay Gods Bless]

Mod edit: there is an acquisition OT, please use it

CMA narrows scope of concerns in Microsoft – Activision review

The CMA has today issued updated provisional findings in its assessment of Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision.

www.gov.uk

The CMA has received a significant amount of new evidence in response to its original provisional findings. Having considered this new evidence carefully, together with the wide range of information gathered before those provisional findings were issued, the CMA inquiry group has updated its provisional findings and reached the provisional conclusion that, overall, the transaction will not result in a substantial lessening of competition in relation to console gaming in the UK.


The most significant new evidence provided to the CMA relates to Microsoft’s financial incentives to make Activision’s games, including Call of Duty (CoD), exclusive to its own consoles. While the CMA’s original analysis indicated that this strategy would be profitable under most scenarios, new data (which provides better insight into the actual purchasing behaviour of CoD gamers) indicates that this strategy would be significantly loss-making under any plausible scenario. On this basis, the updated analysis now shows that it would not be commercially beneficial to Microsoft to make CoD exclusive to Xbox following the deal, but that Microsoft will instead still have the incentive to continue to make the game available on PlayStation.


The CMA’s addendum to its provisional findings today relates only to competition in the supply of consoles and not to competition in the supply of cloud gaming services, where the CMA is continuing to carefully consider the responses provided in relation to the original provisional findings. The CMA’s merger investigation continues, and it remains due to issue its final report by 26 April 2023.

 

[oldergamer]

The math error was true.

 

[feynoob]

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/microsoft-activision-deal-approval-watch-ot.1641775/

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

The biggest obstacle now is placating the CMAs cloud gaming concerns which should also alleviate the EUs cloud concerns as well. After that it's winning the case against the FTC, the FTC is aggressively against this acquisition and big tech in general but they face a tougher fight against MS should the acquisition be approved sooner rather than later in the UK and EU.

 

[ergem]

It’s also loss making for MS to cancel Bethesda games heading to PS5, but they did it anyway.

 

[ByWatterson]

I kinda want this deal to fail but...

...I'm incredibly pumped to have every COD in Gamepass. So let's goooooo

 

[Flutta]

Don’t think MS cares about losing money on CoD making it exclusive. Their whole plan is to destroy and conquer.

What CoD makes is pocket change for MS. CMA should know this, which they did before ”changing” their minds that is.

These so called regulators are basically allowing one mega company to control the biggest IP’s in gaming in a span of a couple of years because they ”can’t compete” . This is clown world on a different level.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Don’t think MS cares about losing money on CoD making it exclusive. Their whole plan is to destroy and conquer.

What CoD makes is pocket change for MS. CMA should know this, which they did before ”changing” their minds that is.

These so called regulators are basically allowing one mega company to control the biggest IP’s in gaming in a span of a couple of years because they ”can’t compete” . This is clown world on a different level.

And they sure cancelled and delisted all Minecraft and Bethesda games on competing platforms.

 

[MarkMe2525]

Don’t think MS cares about losing money on CoD making it exclusive. Their whole plan is to destroy and conquer.

What CoD makes is pocket change for MS. CMA should know this, which they did before ”changing” their minds that is.

These so called regulators are basically allowing one mega company to control the biggest IP’s in gaming in a span of a couple of years because they ”can’t compete” . This is clown world on a different level.

If you're a Sony fan, then this can only be a good thing. How is Sony potentially being forced to create a 1st party fps a bad thing? These marketing deals with Activision are a big reason why we haven't had a big budget shooter from Sony since 2013.

 

[lh032]

CMA narrows scope of concerns in Microsoft – Activision review

The CMA has today issued updated provisional findings in its assessment of Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision.

www.gov.uk

The CMA has received a significant amount of new evidence in response to its original provisional findings. Having considered this new evidence carefully, together with the wide range of information gathered before those provisional findings were issued, the CMA inquiry group has updated its provisional findings and reached the provisional conclusion that, overall, the transaction will not result in a substantial lessening of competition in relation to console gaming in the UK.


The most significant new evidence provided to the CMA relates to Microsoft’s financial incentives to make Activision’s games, including Call of Duty (CoD), exclusive to its own consoles. While the CMA’s original analysis indicated that this strategy would be profitable under most scenarios, new data (which provides better insight into the actual purchasing behaviour of CoD gamers) indicates that this strategy would be significantly loss-making under any plausible scenario. On this basis, the updated analysis now shows that it would not be commercially beneficial to Microsoft to make CoD exclusive to Xbox following the deal, but that Microsoft will instead still have the incentive to continue to make the game available on PlayStation.


The CMA’s addendum to its provisional findings today relates only to competition in the supply of consoles and not to competition in the supply of cloud gaming services, where the CMA is continuing to carefully consider the responses provided in relation to the original provisional findings. The CMA’s merger investigation continues, and it remains due to issue its final report by 26 April 2023.

they seems to forget that Microsoft is a 2-3t worth corporation and also willing to take losses on gamepass subscription.

 

[ProtoByte]

And they sure cancelled and delisted all Minecraft and Bethesda games on competing platforms.

They did explicitly cancel Redfall and Starfield, yes.

Look, I might even believe that they'll keep releasing new CoD on PlayStation for now... fucking Sony in the wallet whilst doing so, yes, but they may well do it. Which is funny, and has been the one narrative success Microsoft has had here; making this all about CoD in the here and now. Forget sbout the treasure trove of IP Activision has, forget about the 15 year old pipelines they've set up, forget about the human capital they command. It's just CoD. Don't focus even focus on Blizzard. Just CoD.

Other than that, you don't just let your opponent take the resources that will grant them leverage over you in the long term when they're not feeling so "generous".

 

[Corndog]

It’s also loss making for MS to cancel Bethesda games heading to PS5, but they did it anyway.

So should Sony put their games on Xbox as well?

 

[ProtoByte]

If you're a Sony fan, then this can only be a good thing. How is Sony potentially being forced to create a 1st party fps a bad thing? These marketing deals with Activision are a big reason why we haven't had a big budget shooter from Sony since 2013.

Forced to create an FPS? Lol

A, they were already going out of their way to do that with Deviation. B, to what effect? You don't just shit out an FPS and have it be anywhere near CoD's success. The CMA made this point in their first report, and there's been nothing posed as to why it's no longer the case, but CoD can't be replicated. It doesn't matter how shit it is (it has been shit many times) or how good alternatives are in comparison or in themselves.

C, the time and money spent making obligatory FPS games because a trillionaire competitor is throwing their money around to take stuff away from your platform could be spent making other things that might actually appeal to some niche in the market.

 

[Lasha]

If you're a Sony fan, then this can only be a good thing. How is Sony potentially being forced to create a 1st party fps a bad thing? These marketing deals with Activision are a big reason why we haven't had a big budget shooter from Sony since 2013.

PS3 Sony was a lot more fun than PS4 onward Sony. Fat Princess, Resistance, Killzone, TLOU, Uncharted, Warhawk, MAG, Motorstorm, Gravity Rush, LBP, and Eye of Judgement off the top of my head. I actually liked it better when Sony was getting wild.

 

[ProtoByte]

So should Sony put their games on Xbox as well?

No, because Sony doesn't claim to want to "bring games to other platforms", and is successful enough selling their own without feeling the need to buy up 2 of no more than 6 major western 3rd party publishers, one of them being the biggest by a long shot.

 

[BrutalTruth_]

I kinda want this deal to fail but...

...I'm incredibly pumped to have every COD in Gamepass. So let's goooooo

Every cod game on gamepass would be absolutely insane for CoD fans, I'd revisit old campaigns.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Every cod game on gamepass would be absolutely insane for CoD fans, I'd revisit old campaigns.

We all will.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

They did explicitly cancel Redfall and Starfield, yes.

Look, I might even believe that they'll keep releasing new CoD on PlayStation for now... fucking Sony in the wallet whilst doing so, yes, but they may well do it. Which is funny, and has been the one narrative success Microsoft has had here; making this all about CoD in the here and now. Forget sbout the treasure trove of IP Activision has, forget about the 15 year old pipelines they've set up, forget about the human capital they command. It's just CoD. Don't focus even focus on Blizzard. Just CoD.

Other than that, you don't just let your opponent take the resources that will grant them leverage over you in the long term when they're not feeling so "generous".

Maybe they will cancel COD one day on PS.

But when it sells probably 10M copies + tons of mtx, I doubt MS will cancel it hoping everyone funnels to Xbox.

As for Activision's other games, aside from Diablo and Tony Hawk, the rest of their big games are PC or mobile. So those gaming franchises dont make a difference to consoles. Sony could had added Diablo to the mix with the COD issues, but they didnt.

 

[HYDE]

Microsoft making money by publishing games for Sony PlayStation…Lol!
Ok sure pumpkin.

 

[Deerock71]

 

[aries_71]

Every cod game on gamepass would be absolutely insane for CoD fans, I'd revisit old campaigns.

So say we all.

 

[CatLady]

Maybe they will cancel COD one day on PS.

But when it sells probably 10M copies + tons of mtx, I doubt MS will cancel it hoping everyone funnels to Xbox.

As for Activision's other games, aside from Diablo and Tony Hawk, the rest of their big games are PC or mobile. So those gaming franchises dont make a difference to consoles. Sony could had added Diablo to the mix with the COD issues, but they didnt.

Exactly, I'm pretty confident they will keep CoD on PS as offered in the contract Sony has repeatedly refused. It's very possible the regulators will force them to do so, but I really wish they hadn't also agreed to parity. I'd like to see Xbox and PC gamers get some of the special perks and exclusives Sony has kept for PlayStation only for years now.

 

[ReBurn]

they seems to forget that Microsoft is a 2-3t worth corporation and also willing to take losses on gamepass subscription.

You should @ the CMA on Twitter and let them know

 

[ironmang]

They did explicitly cancel Redfall and Starfield, yes.

Look, I might even believe that they'll keep releasing new CoD on PlayStation for now... fucking Sony in the wallet whilst doing so, yes, but they may well do it. Which is funny, and has been the one narrative success Microsoft has had here; making this all about CoD in the here and now. Forget sbout the treasure trove of IP Activision has, forget about the 15 year old pipelines they've set up, forget about the human capital they command. It's just CoD. Don't focus even focus on Blizzard. Just CoD.

Other than that, you don't just let your opponent take the resources that will grant them leverage over you in the long term when they're not feeling so "generous".

MS offered them a better deal than they're getting now.

 

[ProtoByte]

MS offered them a better deal than they're getting now.

According to who? Because not according to Sony.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

 

[feynoob]

It's vampire's turn.
They usually wake up late to the party.

 

[DKPOWPOW]

Game Over

MS wins.

GamePass will inevitably become the Netflix of the gaming world. Once the combo of Blizzard and Activision is under the full umbrella of MS… that’s it man. The quality of the GamePass library will triple, and the quantity will double. And then it will just grow.

It’s going to be very hard to ignore the value GamePass presents even at $20 or $25 a month. And it’s all gonna be set to able to run on the lowest common denominator. Series S at $199 or less…. Sheesh I dunno man. This generation could last a very long time.

 

[Hendrick's]

 

[diffusionx]

If I was in Sony's position I would have done the exact same thing, but ultimately, they are given a gift and an opportunity here. Maybe MS will one day take COD from them. But they're not doing it now and Sony now has YEARS to prepare. Companies rarely get this sort of lead-time when it comes to potentially fundamental changes to their business. They now have the chance to build something for their platform that they are in control of. No excuses anymore. Honestly COD is a big pile of shit these days anyway, designed by psychologists to keep you filling their meters and keep you addicted.

Note that this sort of scenario is basically best case for MS, where their strategy plays out so well that they can turn GamePass into a sustainable thing where it can fund these $150M+ games indefinitely and their consoles are just massive successes that feed GamePass subs. I still don't think that is very likely and, honestly, we are already starting to see the cracks. Anything short of that and COD will continue to be on Sony platforms.

GamePass will inevitably become the Netflix of the gaming world. Once the combo of Blizzard and Activision is under the full umbrella of MS… that’s it man. The quality of the GamePass library will triple, and the quantity will double. And then it will just grow.

Netflix is hunting for scraps at this point, cracking down on password sharing and raising prices. Their content is mostly abominable. This streaming business is not what people were saying it would be 2-3 years ago.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If I was in Sony's position I would have done the exact same thing, but ultimately, they are given a gift and an opportunity here. Maybe MS will one day take COD from them. But they're not doing it now and Sony now has YEARS to prepare. Companies rarely get this sort of lead-time when it comes to potentially fundamental changes to their business. They now have the chance to build something for their platform that they are in control of. No excuses anymore. Honestly COD is a big pile of shit these days anyway, designed by psychologists to keep you filling their meters and keep you addicted.

Note that this sort of scenario is basically best case for MS, where their strategy plays out so well that they can turn GamePass into a sustainable thing where it can fund these $150M+ games indefinitely. I still don't think that is very likely and, honestly, we are already starting to see the cracks.


Netflix is hunting for scraps at this point, cracking down on password sharing and raising prices. Their content is mostly abominable. This streaming business is not what people were saying it would be 2-3 years ago.

If Sony still made shooters like they did 10 years ago, while COD wasnt as big as it is now, Sony wouldnt care. They had their shooters (a ton of them). And they even have Bungie now which they bought for $3B.

The problem is they focused almost all of their gaming into SP narratives and GT while in previous gens they had tons of games across lots of genres. So now they go ape shit because they are probably the only major game maker with zero shooters. Even Nintendo has the Splatoon franchise which came out in 2015.

If I was CMA I'd take a look at all that and tell Sony why dont you make your own shooter game. They got the profits to fund it (gaming division banking $3-4B/yr for years), they got the experience (lots of shooter games from existing studios), they got the franchises (take your pick). And just about every big name game they make sells tons of copies.

They even got shooter MP in some of their games and even making Factions 2 right now. So it's not like they got zero clue where it's impossible to make a military game.

Problem is Sony sat back trying to milk third party deals assuming nobody would come around and buy Activision. Well, it happened.

 

[Three]

PS3 Sony was a lot more fun than PS4 onward Sony. Fat Princess, Resistance, Killzone, TLOU, Uncharted, Warhawk, MAG, Motorstorm, Gravity Rush, LBP, and Eye of Judgement off the top of my head. I actually liked it better when Sony was getting wild.

Wow a list of games, doesn’t make a good point though about "getting wild".

PS4 Sony also did Bloodborne, Driveclub, Resogun, Horizon, Killzone, Uncharted, TLOU, Fat Princess Adventures, Dreams, Infamous, Ghost of Tsushima, Order1886, Firewall Zero Hour, Until Dawn, Nioh, Farpoint, The Last Guardian, Death Stranding, etc etc.

This has nothing to do with sony getting wild. If anything they will be more conservative.

 

[Griffon]

Fucking hell.

It never was about making CoD downright exclusive, it was about having a "better" offer of CoD included in gamepass versus full price elsewhere. The CMA don't seem to get the loss-leading race to the bottom price war that MS is doing. This is what is anticompetitive. This is what their buying Activision is all about.

 

[diffusionx]

If Sony still made shooters like they did 10 years ago, while COD wasnt as big as it is now, Sony wouldnt care. They had their shooters (a ton of them). And they even have Bungie now which they bought for $3B.

The problem is they focused almost all of their gaming into SP narratives and GT while in previous gens they had tons of games across lots of genres. So now they go ape shit because they are probably the only major game maker with zero shooters. Even Nintendo has the Splatoon franchise which came out in 2015.

If I was CMA I'd take a look at all that and tell Sony why dont you make your own shooter game. They got the profits to fund it (gaming division banking $3-4B/yr for years), they got the experience (lots of shooter games from existing studios), they got the franchises (take your pick). And just about every big name game they make sells tons of copies.

They even got shooter MP in some of their games and even making Factions 2 right now. So it's not like they got zero clue where it's impossible to make a military game.

Problem is Sony sat back trying to milk third party deals assuming nobody would come around and buy Activision. Well, it happened.

Like I said, they have 10 years to fix this issue. That is an eternity. The fact is, whatever year they made those decisions, it made sense. COD was the biggest game by far, and way more popular on PS than their own titles. They put resources into games they were good at to give them a perceived advantage while letting a 3rd party pick up the slack on this (if you think about it, this really is how the entire console business operates).

That no longer makes sense with this franchise and they need to change. Whatever decisions they made back then are totally irrelevant now.

 

[Darlingcognito]

Great news to wake up to, they finally saw sense and realised it's no threat.
Hopefully it's all signed before Diablo IV releases.

 

[sinnergy]

All these pages of hateful people in the other thread . All that time wasted writing walls of text. deal was always going through…

 

[Hendrick's]

Fucking hell.

It never was about making CoD downright exclusive, it was about having a "better" offer of CoD included in gamepass versus full price elsewhere. The CMA don't seem to get the loss-leading race to the bottom price war that MS is doing. This is what is anticompetitive. This is what their buying Activision is all about.

Oh no, how will Sony ever compete?

Maybe they will start by putting their own damn games in their subscription service. Go ahead and thank Phil now for making gaming better for all consumers.

 

[TheGodfather07]

so they will just accept microsofts word on it basically. cloud gaming wont be an issue. CMA will approve... i think.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

so they will just accept microsofts word on it basically. cloud gaming wont be an issue. CMA will approve... i think.

" i think".
x to doubt in that one.

 

[Yoboman]

Honestly the rollercoaster may not be over yet, if it was that would be clear. They are still looking at the cloud market. What we don't know is if CMA are narrowing their focus on what they think is a better chance of success or they are winding down the investigation as a whole

I'd say 90% it's done 10% they want to take a shot at this from the cloud market where they can illustrate Microsoft has a dominant market position

 

[TheGodfather07]

" i think".
x to doubt in that one.

you doubt that i think it will go through? what do i think then?

 

[Hendrick's]

Honestly the rollercoaster may not be over yet, if it was that would be clear. They are still looking at the cloud market. What we don't know is if CMA are narrowing their focus on what they think is a better chance of success or they are winding down the investigation as a whole

I'd say 90% it's done 10% they want to take a shot at this from the cloud market where they can illustrate Microsoft has a dominant market position

99% they are just going through the motions and trying to save face. This deal is as good as done.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

you doubt that i think it will go through? what do i think then?

dont despair my friend, you still have the FTC.

 

[Ozriel]

It’s also loss making for MS to cancel Bethesda games heading to PS5, but they did it anyway.

Why would It be ‘loss making’ to ship only on Xbox and PC?

If you're a Sony fan, then this can only be a good thing. How is Sony potentially being forced to create a 1st party fps a bad thing?

Sony pivoted to GaaS long before Microsoft announced a bid for Activision.

Honestly the rollercoaster may not be over yet, if it was that would be clear. They are still looking at the cloud market. What we don't know is if CMA are narrowing their focus on what they think is a better chance of success or they are winding down the investigation as a whole

I'd say 90% it's done 10% they want to take a shot at this from the cloud market where they can illustrate Microsoft has a dominant market position

Microsoft is signing deals for Cloud access left, right and center. And it can clearly be shown that MS is the market leader solely because they’re chief competitors aren’t interested in investing there just yet.
I don’t expect there to be any trouble there.

 

[Yoboman]

99% they are just going through the motions and trying to save face. This deal is as good as done.

I dunno I recall a lot of people arguing the cloud perspective was the stronger case awhile back. As a console gamer I disagree but we can only see where it goes

 

[TheGodfather07]

dont despair my friend, you still have the FTC.

you do know that i have an xbox series x right? also how does me thinking the deal will be approved = despair? must i worship microsoft to be an xbox fan?

 

[Rykan]

It’s also loss making for MS to cancel Bethesda games heading to PS5, but they did it anyway.

Completely different situation.

Call of Duty sells like 15M to 25M copies per installment, That's an enormous amount of revenue to miss out on a yearly basis if they were to stop releasing it on Playstation consoles. A Bethesda title sells similar numbers, but they only release a game every few years or so.

Or to put more simple: The amount of players signing up for Xbox vs revenue lost for not releasing on Playstation is nowhere near the same for Call of Duty as it is for Bethesda games.

 

[Hendrick's]

I dunno I recall a lot of people arguing the cloud perspective was the stronger case awhile back. As a console gamer I disagree but we can only see where it goes

I was one of those who said this would be about cloud gaming. That said, there is no meat left on that bone.

 

[Yoboman]

Why would It be ‘loss making’ to ship only on Xbox and PC?



Sony pivoted to GaaS long before Microsoft announced a bid for Activision.



Microsoft is signing deals for Cloud access left, right and center. And it can clearly be shown that MS is the market leader solely because they’re chief competitors aren’t interested in investing there just yet.
I don’t expect there to be any trouble there.

MS have signed a bunch of deals with Bring Your Own Game providers, but none with a market place like Sony or Amazon yet. Google are the chief objector on the Cloud side and have called out Microsoft's acquisition tactics as one of the causes of Stadia's demise. Let's see if thats the direction they head with their objections

 

[Yoboman]

Completely different situation.

Call of Duty sells like 15M to 25M copies per installment, That's an enormous amount of revenue to miss out on a yearly basis if they were to stop releasing it on Playstation consoles. A Bethesda title sells similar numbers, but they only release a game every few years or so.

Or to put more simple: The amount of players signing up for Xbox vs revenue lost for not releasing on Playstation is nowhere near the same for Call of Duty as it is for Bethesda games.

Pennies for Microsoft. Neither situation would be make them uncomfortable financially