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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

Good news, everyone!

The nebulous, annoying powers that be are now acting slightly less annoying. Pressure is slightly less for now.

That means I can post this comparison I wanted to post in the previous NPD thread!


cR7Hwru.png


2001 LTD (GameCube): 1.2 million
2002 LTD (GameCube): 3.5 million
2003 LTD (GameCube): 6.7 million

Jan 2004 (GameCube): 130K
Feb 2004 (GameCube): 137K



2012 LTD (Wii U): 0.9 million
2013 LTD (Wii U): 2.1 million
2014 LTD (Wii U): 3.7 million

Jan 2015 (Wii U): 63K
Feb 2015 (Wii U): (Revealed Thursday, 3/12)



I'll update when Feb numbers come in.

I find it fascinating how the Wii U is trailing the GameCube by more than 3 million.
 
I find it fascinating how the Wii U is trailing the GameCube by more than 3 million.

That is such a crazy statistic. Regardless of the quality of software Nintendo has been releasing lately, the Wii U cannot be looked at as anything other than a fuck up of colossal proportions.

I mean going from the Wii's sales to the Wii U's......just a complete failure by the management of Nintendo.
 
So the US accounts for 40% of Wii U sales. Assuming they manage to finish with 6M in U.S and ratio stays the same, WW will be about 15M.
 
Didn't the Gamecube hit $99 Fall 2003?

$99 to $299 is a really drastic difference.

Yes, but the entire console generation was cheaper back then. Market expectations were much different (and every $ was considered to be more valuable).

In mid-2003, the Xbox was $179, the PS2 was $179, and the GC was $149.

Meanwhile, in mid-2015, the Xbox One is $349, the PS4 is $399, and the Wii U is $299.
 

Dsyndrome

Member
Never would I thought Wii U was doing that bad in comparison. Curious to see what their plan is to right the ship, or if they just keep being the Nintendo elephant.
 

Xenus

Member
Yes, but the entire console generation was cheaper back then. Market expectations were much different (and every $ was considered to be more valuable).

In mid-2003, the Xbox was $179, the PS2 was $179, and the GC was $149.

Meanwhile, in mid-2015, the Xbox One is $399, the PS4 is $399, and the Wii U is $299.

Isn't the Xbox One $349 or did it go back up again?
 
Yes, but the entire console generation was cheaper back then. Market expectations were much different (and every $ was considered to be more valuable).

In mid-2003, the Xbox was $179, the PS2 was $179, and the GC was $149.

Meanwhile, in mid-2015, the Xbox One is $349, the PS4 is $399, and the Wii U is $299.

True. But $99 is has a strong psychological factor to it as a budget thing. Also where the other consoles still at $180 when the Gamecube was $99?

I mean the Wii U is still doing horribly and worse than. Any other Nintendo console but I think the Gamecube comparison doesn't work directly.
 
When is the next retail MS exclusive or even digital? The release schedule thus far seems to be paltry for the Xbone this year especially when taking into account digital releases. I mean you could see this coming from a mile away and yet many were patting MS on the back during the holidays praising them for the great lineup they had, and now what do they have for the first 9 months of the year? Ori and the Blind Forest, that is also on PC same day? I am not so sure the $50 off is enough right now, the PS4 has new games every week and has a healthy lineup of retail exclusives as well. The Order, Bloodborne, MLB The Show, Until Dawn, and Tearaway Unfolded are all due out by Summer. You can call into question whether any of those are system sellers but all together they build a narrative and perception for the PS4 that there is always something new to play.

Not to create a list war or anything but this is a prediction thread and I think that plays a bigger role into people's purchasing decision than many give credit, so I am just laying out my train of thought. Halo is the one I think many point to and say that is why people are going to buy a Xbone, but to that I would say they either own it already or know that price will fall out during the holidays so why buy now for a game that is months away at a more expensive price? That's why I think the current slate of games over the next few months is so important, and price is less so.

As for my predictions

[3DS] 200K (I heard a lot of stories that stores got limited numbers of the New 3DS and sold through them so not sure if a restock happened or not in the tracking period)
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 140K
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Never would I thought Wii U was doing that bad in comparison. Curious to see what their plan is to right the ship, or if they just keep being the Nintendo elephant.

Nintendo has already reacted, albeit too late, to two consecutive failed products, 3DS & Wii U, especially the North American market for the above mentioned consoles.

Management have realized they do not live in the secluded Nintendo bubble they once thought they inhabited: hence the new business units established at Nintendo for growth opportunities, a greater emphasis on licensing ventures, new revenue streams (amiibo), QOL, etc.

We won't see the fruits of their labor until FY17, but it's a great time to be a Nintendo shareholder.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
When is the next retail MS exclusive or even digital? The release schedule thus far seems to be paltry for the Xbone this year especially when taking into account digital releases. I mean you could see this coming from a mile away and yet many were patting MS on the back during the holidays praising them for the great lineup they had, and now what do they have for the first 9 months of the year? Ori and the Blind Forest, that is also on PC same day? I am not so sure the $50 off is enough right now, the PS4 has new games every week and has a healthy lineup of retail exclusives as well. The Order, Bloodborne, MLB The Show, Until Dawn, and Tearaway Unfolded are all due out by Summer. You can call into question whether any of those are system sellers but all together they build a narrative and perception for the PS4 that there is always something new to play.

Not to create a list war or anything but this is a prediction thread and I think that plays a bigger role into people's purchasing decision than many give credit, so I am just laying out my train of thought. Halo is the one I think many point to and say that is why people are going to buy a Xbone, but to that I would say they either own it already or know that price will fall out during the holidays so why buy now for a game that is months away at a more expensive price? That's why I think the current slate of games over the next few months is so important, and price is less so.

Some of the game delays (e.g.: The Order and Bloodborne) have definitely helped the PS4 for the early part of this year. So yeah, I expect the PS4 to pretty much take the whole first half of this year (NPD).

Second half of the year is a toss up in my opinion and will probably have a bigger impact on the sales gap than the first half of the year; Simply depends on when the Xbox One exclusives release. There's a lot of stuff for the system during the second half of the year -- the content needs to be spread out nicely due to it. If it is, then the Xbox One may do very well during that period. I think the ideal layout would be (stating this as a possibility; not a fact)...

August: Quantum Break release + (another) XB1 Madden bundle (this time at a cheaper price than PS4 console if there's still a $50 difference)

September: Halo 5 release + special Halo 5 XB1 bundle (I don't think it would be wise for the game to launch in November)

October: Forza Motorsport 6 release + Assassin's Creed Victory advertising

November/December: Tomb Raider, Call of Duty advertising, Holiday deals, maybe special games to celebrate the Xbox 360's 10th anniversary(?)

I definitely agree with your last point (bold). The people buying game consoles right now aren't looking for crazy deals... they are getting consoles to mainly play the big/new recent release(s). PS4 should win February and March due to that. Think the bigger question though is by how much over the Xbox One.
 

donny2112

Member
I find it fascinating how the Wii U is trailing the GameCube by more than 3 million.
Holy crap at how far it's below GC.
I know. Wow.

GameCube just had its $99 October 2003 drop. Wii U is still bad, but it's like when we were comparing it to Dreamcast's $50 holiday. Price is going to make a big difference in sales.

Didn't the Gamecube hit $99 Fall 2003?

$99 to $299 is a really drastic difference.

Yeah, exactly.

Yes, but the entire console generation was cheaper back then. Market expectations were much different (and every $ was considered to be more valuable).

In mid-2003, the Xbox was $179, the PS2 was $179, and the GC was $149.

Meanwhile, in mid-2015, the Xbox One is $349, the PS4 is $399, and the Wii U is $299.

$99 is magical. Wii U is still bad, but look at your graph. GameCube's Nov/Dec 2003 sold more than all of 2014 for the Wii U. Nintendo even had some stock issues in Fall 2003 (probably because they had to stop production earlier in the year due to such low sales :p ).
 
GameCube just had its $99 October 2003 drop. Wii U is still bad, but it's like when we were comparing it to Dreamcast's $50 holiday. Price is going to make a big difference in sales.



Yeah, exactly.



$99 is magical. Wii U is still bad, but look at your graph. GameCube's Nov/Dec 2003 sold more than all of 2014 for the Wii U. Nintendo even had some stock issues in Fall 2003 (probably because they had to stop production earlier in the year due to such low sales :p ).

I feel like we overstate the importance of a "$99 console price point" because of how valuable that would be nowadays.

George Harrison of NoA said back in '03 that the $50 price drop to $99 was an indication that GC was finally "entering the mass market."

In 2015 we can achieve that with a much more significant upfront threshold. The PS4's $399 2014 holiday season was on-par with the GameCube's $99 holiday season despite the $300 unadjusted upfront cost differential.

2003 was still the peak year for GC in many ways. There were other factors besides the low price that drove GC adoption. I feel as though we still would have seen demonstrable relative GC gains if the GC didn't drop $50. So the comparison isn't irrelevant in that regards.

And, this June 2006 Iwata quote continues to resonate with me:

IY6asCN.png


http://www.nintendo.co.jp/kessan/060607qa_e/


I like to track the percentage of Wii U console sales relative to GameCube console sales in North America specifically because that's where Nintendo's primary hardware business for GameCube and Wii U lies, especially now that we're getting closer to the 3 year anniversary of the Wii U.
 
Some of the game delays (e.g.: The Oder and Bloodborne) have definitely helped the PS4 for the early part of this year. So yeah, I expect the PS4 to pretty much take the whole first half of this year (NPD).

Second half of the year is a toss up in my opinion and will probably have a bigger impact on the sales gap than the first half of the year; Simply depends on when the Xbox One exclusives release. There's a lot of stuff for the system during the second half of the year -- the content needs to be spread out nicely though. If it is then the Xbox One may do very well during that period. I think the ideal layout would be (stating this as a possibility; not a fact)...

August: Quantum Break release + (another) XB1 Madden bundle (this time at a cheaper price than PS4 console if there's still a $50 difference)

September: Halo 5 release + special Halo 5 XB1 bundle (I don't think it would be wise for the game to launch in November)

October: Forza Motorsport 6 release + Assassin's Creed Victory advertising

November/December: Tomb Raider, Call of Duty advertising, Holiday deals, maybe special games to celebrate the Xbox 360's 10th anniversary(?)

I definitely agree with your last point (bold). The people buying game consoles right now aren't looking for crazy deals... they are getting consoles to mainly play the big/new recent release(s). PS4 should win February and March due to that. Think the bigger question though is by how much over the Xbox One.

Tomb Raider better be bundled in with every Xbox One like AC Unity was if it releases in November.
 

hepburn3d

Member
cR7Hwru.png


I find it fascinating how the Wii U is trailing the GameCube by more than 3 million.

That is a very interesting comparison. Poor WiiU, but then if someone gave me a choice right now of a WiiU or a gamecube with all the games I'd take the gamecube ... just loved those games

Estimates:

[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 181K
[3DS] 150K
[WIU] 70K

My rough tracking of PS life time sales, forgive me if any numbers are way out.

nbP0wIO.png
 

Conduit

Banned
September: Halo 5 release + special Halo 5 XB1 bundle (I don't think it would be wise for the game to launch in November)

October: Forza Motorsport 6 release + Assassin's Creed Victory advertising

November/December: Tomb Raider, Call of Duty advertising, Holiday deals, maybe special games to celebrate the Xbox 360's 10th anniversary(?)

I definitely agree with your last point (bold). The people buying game consoles right now aren't looking for crazy deals... they are getting consoles to mainly play the big/new recent release(s). PS4 should win February and March due to that. Think the bigger question though is by how much over the Xbox One.

Halo 5 is scheduled for Holiday, same as Tomb Raider! September, NO! Last 3 Forza M. sequels are released between Sep. and October. IIRC, every Ass Creed was released in November. So, you can expect Halo 5, new Ass Creed, new COD to be released in November. And big problem is Tomb Raider is slated for Holidays. And that's a big problem. I think Lara Croft will be lost in the middle.
 

Welfare

Member
Halo 5 is scheduled for Holiday, same as Tomb Raider! September, NO! Last 3 Forza M. sequels are released between Sep. and October. IIRC, every Ass Creed was released in November. So, you can expect Halo 5, new Ass Creed, new COD to be released in November. And big problem is Tomb Raider is slated for Holidays. And that's a big problem. I think Lara Croft will be lost in the middle.

MS has said the only months that matter are the last 4, so September might as well be a holiday month for MS.

Also that comparison. Jeez. Gamecube sold more in 2003 than the Wii U did with 2012 and 2013 combined.
 
Sony needs to charge into the holiday season with a $100 price cut to $299 just to throw off all of MS' plans.

No price drop before then.
 

Lone Wolf

Member
Halo 5 is scheduled for Holiday, same as Tomb Raider! September, NO! Last 3 Forza M. sequels are released between Sep. and October. IIRC, every Ass Creed was released in November. So, you can expect Halo 5, new Ass Creed, new COD to be released in November. And big problem is Tomb Raider is slated for Holidays. And that's a big problem. I think Lara Croft will be lost in the middle.

Nothing says that Halo will or has to release in November. There is precedent for it releasing in September, so it would not be a surprise if it did.
 
Sony needs to charge into the holiday season with a $100 price cut to $299 just to throw off all of MS' plans.

No price drop before then.

That would be absolutely brutal for MS. But Sony won't do that. The PS4 is still selling really well, and they can use all the cash they can get.

I mean, even though MS sold more in November and December, the PS4 still leads the sales in the US by quite the margin.
At best, Sony will drop to 350, and thats only if they manage to really cut down on costs.
 
Is this confirmed or just assumed?

No word yet. Battlefield went back to Sony, so it is possible Assassin's Creed will as well, but I think the holiday was waaaaaaaaaay nicer to Ubisoft thanks to Microsoft's fire sale than what they would have done on their own. Heck, even now almost every singe Xbox sold is more money in Ubisoft's account thanks to the abundance of these holiday bundles now in their 5th month of service. I cannot see Sony offering a better deal than that, personally...
 
So the US accounts for 40% of Wii U sales. Assuming they manage to finish with 6M in U.S and ratio stays the same, WW will be about 15M.

Japan has tanked, I expect the US to account for a larger share from here on out (it's been steadily increasing over time)
 

thebloo

Member
No word yet. Battlefield went back to Sony, so it is possible Assassin's Creed will as well, but I think the holiday was waaaaaaaaaay nicer to Ubisoft thanks to Microsoft's fire sale than what they would have done on their own. Heck, even now almost every singe Xbox sold is more money in Ubisoft's account thanks to the abundance of these holiday bundles now in their 5th month of service. I cannot see Sony offering a better deal than that, personally...

Yes, the bundle was perfect for saving a "bad" product. But considering they'll want to make Victory a come-back, it'll make more sense to market it towards 25 million consoles (at that point) versus whatever XB1 will have.

Anyway, there's nothing official until E3 I guess. If it's a repeat of last year (using XB1 controllers) we'll know.
 
Some of the game delays (e.g.: The Order and Bloodborne) have definitely helped the PS4 for the early part of this year. So yeah, I expect the PS4 to pretty much take the whole first half of this year (NPD).

Second half of the year is a toss up in my opinion and will probably have a bigger impact on the sales gap than the first half of the year; Simply depends on when the Xbox One exclusives release. There's a lot of stuff for the system during the second half of the year -- the content needs to be spread out nicely due to it. If it is, then the Xbox One may do very well during that period. I think the ideal layout would be (stating this as a possibility; not a fact)...

August: Quantum Break release + (another) XB1 Madden bundle (this time at a cheaper price than PS4 console if there's still a $50 difference)

September: Halo 5 release + special Halo 5 XB1 bundle (I don't think it would be wise for the game to launch in November)

October: Forza Motorsport 6 release + Assassin's Creed Victory advertising

November/December: Tomb Raider, Call of Duty advertising, Holiday deals, maybe special games to celebrate the Xbox 360's 10th anniversary(?)

I definitely agree with your last point (bold). The people buying game consoles right now aren't looking for crazy deals... they are getting consoles to mainly play the big/new recent release(s). PS4 should win February and March due to that. Think the bigger question though is by how much over the Xbox One.

Yea MS definitely seems to be stacking things for the holidays again. as of now Sony has UC4, which is huge, but I wonder what else they will have. as of now there are no WWS titles announced with a date beyond summer of this year. I do think whenever the Last Guardian gets re revealed it will be released in the same year, so maybe that?
 
That would be absolutely brutal for MS. But Sony won't do that. The PS4 is still selling really well, and they can use all the cash they can get.

I mean, even though MS sold more in November and December, the PS4 still leads the sales in the US by quite the margin.
At best, Sony will drop to 350, and thats only if they manage to really cut down on costs.

I get that they can profit on console sales, but surely such a manoeuvre would absolutely crush the X1 in NA, and thus Sony would stand to make a lot more having far more consoles out there and selling PS+ subs over the years.
 

AniHawk

Member
They can be quirky and illogical at times, and Rodea the Sky Soldier (which seems like another one of Nintendo's passion projects) sounds perfect for a random moneyhat.

Iwata is a developer at heart. He loves this kind of stuff.

you know how you know a lot about npd stuff for some reason?
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Is this confirmed or just assumed?

Just assumptions.
______________

Halo 5 is scheduled for Holiday, same as Tomb Raider! September, NO!

Halo 5 official period right now is "Fall 2015". It will definitely be a game that MS will push during the Holiday season but it doesn't need to come out in November for them to do that.

November is already too packed with (well, I'm assuming) Tomb Raider and the multiplatform shooters. The Halo brand needs a big (positive) spotlight after Halo 4 and MCC. Don't think it would be smart to release the game in November.

Last 3 Forza M. sequels are released between Sep. and October. IIRC, every Ass Creed was released in November.

Unity was suppose to come out in late October but then it got delayed.

So, you can expect Halo 5, new Ass Creed, new COD to be released in November. And big problem is Tomb Raider is slated for Holidays. And that's a big problem. I think Lara Croft will be lost in the middle.

Too soon to say. I mean yeah, COD is a lock for November. I think Halo 5 and Assassin's Creed is still up in the air though.
_________

Yea MS definitely seems to be stacking things for the holidays again. as of now Sony has UC4, which is huge, but I wonder what else they will have. as of now there are no WWS titles announced with a date beyond summer of this year. I do think whenever the Last Guardian gets re revealed it will be released in the same year, so maybe that?

Yeah, I don't know if there's anything else in terms of exclusive AAA games for the Holiday season. Would be surprised if there is since Sony likes to announce games of that nature at least one year before they release.
 

donny2112

Member
George Harrison of NoA said back in '03 that the $50 price drop to $99 was an indication that GC was finally "entering the mass market."

In 2015 we can achieve that with a much more significant upfront threshold. The PS4's $399 2014 holiday season was on-par with the GameCube's $99 holiday season despite the $300 unadjusted upfront cost differential.

To be clear, I'm not holding up 2003's GCN Nov/Dec sales as a barometer of success. GCN sold 1.9m in those two months, but PS2 sold 2.8m and GBA sold 3.4m. But when comparing the sales of GCN which just dropped to $99 (and yes, that's a big deal at the time, because that became impulse buy territory; it's part of why GBA was such a beast, since it started @ $99) to Wii U, it needs to be brought in as an extenuating circumstance. Nintendo was trying to save the GCN, and they were back to profitability on the hardware itself shortly thereafter. I don't think Nintendo is as desperate to save the Wii U (and no idea if they could afford even a $100 drop and still be close to profitability on the current system). I think they're just in damage-control mode and trying to get through this gen with as little loss from the Wii U as they can. So, yes, it's absolutely tanking next to GCN, which was bad to begin with, but you can't ignore the circumstances of GCN vs. Wii U in such a comparison, either.

I like to track the percentage of Wii U console sales relative to GameCube console sales in North America specifically because that's where Nintendo's primary hardware business for GameCube and Wii U lies, especially now that we're getting closer to the 3 year anniversary of the Wii U.

Yeah, GCN wasn't great, but the U.S. did more than its fair share of support for the system. I'm fine with comparing the two, but the $99 drop was the biggest year GCN ever had. The previous year, it sold ~1m in Nov/Dec, and the following year it sold 1.1m. 2003 was a blip, and it needs to be pointed out why.

There's an old AniHawk quote that's appropriate here, I think:

"Drop the price on a loser system, and it'll have a bump before dropping back to loserville. Drop the price on a winning system, and it'll win even bigger!"

Even if Nintendo drops the price on Wii U to $199 (which it should've found a way to launch at, by the way), it'd just be a temporary blip before going to loserville again. The question becomes "Is such a blip worth it to the bottom line and/or business?"
 

Radec

Member
Good news, everyone!

The nebulous, annoying powers that be are now acting slightly less annoying. Pressure is slightly less for now.

That means I can post this comparison I wanted to post in the previous NPD thread!


cR7Hwru.png


2001 LTD (GameCube): 1.2 million
2002 LTD (GameCube): 3.5 million
2003 LTD (GameCube): 6.7 million

Jan 2004 (GameCube): 130K
Feb 2004 (GameCube): 137K



2012 LTD (Wii U): 0.9 million
2013 LTD (Wii U): 2.1 million
2014 LTD (Wii U): 3.7 million

Jan 2015 (Wii U): 63K
Feb 2015 (Wii U): (Revealed Thursday, 3/12)



I'll update when Feb numbers come in.

I find it fascinating how the Wii U is trailing the GameCube by more than 3 million.

Damn, WiiU almost half of gamecube.

I almost bought a WiiU yesterday but my local shops here in asia doesn't have Bayonetta 2. I can only see wiiu games of like half of their 2014 release.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Just assumptions.
______________



Halo 5 official period right now is "Fall 2015". It will definitely be a game that MS will push during the Holiday season but it doesn't need to come out in November for them to do that.

November is already too packed with (well, I'm assuming) Tomb Raider and the multiplatform shooters. The Halo brand needs a big (positive) spotlight after Halo 4 and MCC. Don't think it would be smart to release the game in November.



Unity was suppose to come out in late October but then it got delayed.



Too soon to say. I mean yeah, COD is a lock for November. I think Halo 5 and Assassin's Creed is still up in the air though.
_________

The more interesting question for me is which one will get the "Unity" treatment? I'm guessing Tomb Raider will be the bundle of choice this holiday season. Although, one would think there will be a Halo 5 special edition X1 bundle this fall.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
The more interesting question for me is which one will get the "Unity" treatment? I'm guessing Tomb Raider will be the bundle of choice this holiday season. Although, one would think there will be a Halo 5 special edition X1 bundle this fall.

Yeah I'm thinking Tomb Raider will get the "Unity treatment" -- maybe even with 2014's remake/definitive edition included (making it even more similar to the Assassin's Creed bundle last year; might be easy to do since the game is old now).

Positive that there will be a Halo 5 bundle but not at the same price as whatever the regular Xbox One SKU will be set at during that time. Think it will be higher in price. Maybe $400 or $450 (with 1 TB of space).
 
The more interesting question for me is which one will get the "Unity" treatment? I'm guessing Tomb Raider will be the bundle of choice this holiday season. Although, one would think there will be a Halo 5 special edition X1 bundle this fall.

Yeah, but the MCC was a no brainer inclusion for black Friday and they only had it at one retailer, so who knows what they are thinking... my guess would be Tomb Raider and 300USD price tag starting November and then throwing in a free Halo 5 code for Black Friday. That sounds like a too good to pass up kind of deal, but who knows how their situation is going to be for this fall.
 

Welfare

Member
I think they'll have two "Unity" bundles. The "normal" Tomb Raider one and a more expensive Halo bundle with 5 and MCC.
 
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