HK-47 said:
Neither. It's now some retarded looking sidescrolling action game.
http://sega.jp/ds/bleachds4/
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: July 20-26, 2009
- Thread starter Captain Smoker
- Start date
Neither. It's now some retarded looking sidescrolling action game.
http://sega.jp/ds/bleachds4/
jesusraz
Member
I did say 'first week'. I fully expect SMT to have far longer legs. BD could be a case of fans intrigued to see if its better than BD+, those stalwart Tales fans that are sucked in by Baba-san's involvement and maybe even a few DQIX'ers that want another RPG to tinker with picking it up first week and then sales simply dropping off really quickly for a final total of 150,000-175,000 lifetime.duckroll said:
SMT, on the other hand (depending on initial stock shipments) could start moderately and keep chugging along nicely like EO2 did to hit anywhere between 175,000 and 225,000.
But as I said, those predictions were simply based upon my hand becoming extremely friendly with my backside for a few moments. It's rare for me to partake in sales prediction shenanigans
jesusraz said:
Right, but even so, I think 95k first week is unrealistic for Shin Megami Tensei when even Etrian Odyssey 2 launched at 85k.
jesusraz said:
Serious question: what gamer do you know of that actually cares whether Hideo Baba is "involved" in a game or not? What kind of name recognition do you think he has? He isn't a game director or a character designer or a gameplay designer or a franchise creator. He's nothing more than a producer and (more recently) a "brand manager." These are the extent of Baba's credits:
Trusty Bell: producer
Tales of the Tempest: special thanks
Tales of Symphonia 2: general manager
Tales of Hearts: producer
Tales of Vesperia: brand manager
I mean, come on... Do you think people really give a fuck about Hideo Baba? Do you think that's a marketable point? Do you think anyone would want to spend 5023 yen because Hideo Baba produced a game (or managed its brand)?
Actually, I guess that's several serious questions. But I'm curious!
I think a better question would be this: Are there even 100k buying fans who know that a) A BD game is coming out in Oct, b) Hideo Baba is producing it. Before we even get to the caring stage, we have to reach the informed stage. I don't think most people are really informed of the existence of the game, even though it's 2 months away.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Hmm. I'm not certain what FF VII's final total is adding together the various budget rereleases and International and whatnot, but its first week was just over 2 million. FF III DS doubled its first week, so VII would have to pass 4 million to match. It did have quite a string of 50+K weeks, though, whereas more front-heavy X and XII only had three each.cvxfreak said:
By the way, this gives me an excuse to share the resource I just checked--if I've shared it on GAF before it's been a long time. The "Nifty" site is a weekly Famitsu software source that's pretty complete from 1996 through late 2003, and one of the source I used for Garaph. Since I was using it so much and it's a static resource I wanted an offline version I could access with no load time or needing to go through Google to translate it each time. So through batch processes I downloaded all the pages in a Google-translated version, removed as much as I could of the extra baggage Google added in (like pop-up translation suggestions), and made the links relative. Very convenient, and is less than a megabyte to download in a RAR. There's also the original Japanese version that had to go through fewer steps.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Blue Dragon is radioactive here now.
Here's what I think for those four:
Blue Dragon - 60k lifetime
Shonen x Shonen x SMAP - 45k
SMT: 210k
FF 4wol: 490k
Here's what I think for those four:
Blue Dragon - 60k lifetime
Shonen x Shonen x SMAP - 45k
SMT: 210k
FF 4wol: 490k
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Heh. I never did get very far in that plan to make versions of Garaph that would better work with various lower resolution browsers. Lack of figuring out a good way to do the subdomain stuff was a bit of a motivation killer. The DS test pages still work, though only a fraction of things were DS-ified.cvxfreak said:
shykyoichi
Member
So it's like Bleach Soul Carnival? Meh. At least, I still have Heat the Soul games to play.duckroll said:
Mr.NiceGuy
Banned
Nirolak said:
old and there is a thread about it.
thestopsign
Member
Meier said:
Maybe tomorrow. Definitely by Tuesday (EST).
JoshuaJSlone
Member
slaughterking
Member
So I take it we won't get first week numbers for MHtri today? Curse you, Famitsu! :I
Meier said:
These won't be first day numbers- these will be the full numbers for the week (which in Tri's case is only 2 days). The Saturday release screws everything up so you don't get the usual 1st day numbers that you see for Thursday releases. The only way we get early numbers is if Famitsu puts them out early like DQ IX. Hopefully we get them tomorrow.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
They do, if the game comes out on the usual Thursday. MH3 came out on Saturday though, so that means the first day number for it will be late or just plain won't come at all.Meier said:
http://ameblo.jp/get6-2/entry-10312472587.html
i dont know if this blog is reliable but he is reporting 400k first day, also the Wii bundle is selling out.
i dont know if this blog is reliable but he is reporting 400k first day, also the Wii bundle is selling out.
thestopsign
Member
king zell said:
Do we know how many they shipped? I'd have to imagine they shipped a good 75k or so.
farnham said:
I assume he's talking about the Wii bundle. And I don't think they ever released a number, but 75K-100K seems reasonable to me.
Oh and haven't we been burned before by these types of blogs? The numbers seem reasonable but color me skeptical for now.
yeah i think we had the same situation with DQ.. some random blog said it sold like 3 million units day one and people got bumped because it ONLY sold like 2 million somethingschuelma said:
btw. do we have anecdotal evidence from JGAF.. especially guys that attended to the DQ9 and the MH3 launch both.. how do they compare (in terms of lines and stuff like that) ?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Anecdotal line evidence would probably give us sub-ioi results. Anyone remember the pictures of DS and PSP launch (johntv's?) that gave a bit of a reversed view of the numbers?
thestopsign
Member
Meier said:
400k day one would mean ~550k to 600k first week (two day first week). I don't think that would be considered very disappointing, especially considering it will have a better second week than most games because it has had less time on the market than most games going into their second week.
Yeah, I meant bundles when I asked how many were shipped. If they are selling out of bundles, then that means we can expect a big first week of hardware for the Wii.
Edit: MotherFan, it was a fucking Pokemon game. How much do you think it sold?
BishopLamont
Banned
Stopsign said:
:lolfarnham said:
This made me laugh more then it should have.
Captain Smoker
Member
Dragon Quest IXMotherFan said:
First day: ?,???,???
First week: 2,343,440
Life to date: 3,217,502
test_account
XP-39C²
The Monster Hunter 3 bundle does/did include a black Wii though, so people who wanted a black Wii might have bought the MH3 bundle. Maybe this could have affected the sales of the standalone black colored Wii a bit? But ye, this week's Wii hardware sale will most likely be huge indeed as you sayidlewild_ said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
While I'm sure this is true, I was thinking it might be nice to quantify such a difference by looking at overall stats. One problem of doing this, though, is that looking at overall stats isn't really very even--games are usually released on an unusual day of the week because they're special. Using the trajectory matcher to find games with data available after 1 or 2 days, there are only 88 results in Garaph. However, 8 of those are over a million. Certainly 1/11 of overall games don't do that. While there are various ways one could try to make the comparison more fair, I'll try to keep it simple and compare the biggest releases of both. Arbitrarily, "biggest releases" are going to be considered ones that sold 200+K in their first week (regardless of number of days). This gives 10 1-2 day games, and 136 3-4 day games, though not all have known week two totals.Stopsign said:
Games available for 3-4 days their first week, which sold 200+K that first week, and which have a known week two total: 132
Average first week for these games: 407,117
Average second week LTD for these games: 517,049
Average improvement from week one to week two: 27.0%
Games available for 1-2 days their first week, which sold 200+K that first week, and which have a known week two total: 10
Average first week for these games: 755,550
Average second week LTD for these games: 996,704
Average improvement from week one to week two: 31.9%
Not as big a difference as I would have guessed.
Though I didn't do all of this with SQL, here's what I used to get the set of games for the 3-4 day launchers' figures above, if someone wants to, say, play around with figures other than 200+K.
I ended up being such a person, and decided to try being even more exclusive, and go for REALLY big games, selling at least 400K that first week. As you'll see, it didn't change much.
Games available for 3-4 days their first week, which sold 400+K that first week, and which have a known week two total: 38
Average first week for these games: 730,176
Average second week LTD for these games: 915,737
Average improvement from week one to week two: 25.4%
Games available for 1-2 days their first week, which sold 400+K that first week, and which have a known week two total: 4
Average first week for these games: 1,504,097
Average second week LTD for these games: 1,940,190
Average improvement from week one to week two: 29.0%