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Media Create Sales: Sep 28 - Oct 4
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
How have other longstanding franchises performed on the PS2->PS3 transition? My memory is that many have retained most of their sales. Examples including MGS and Tales of. GT5
outsold GT4 by vast amounts, but it was bundled.
On the other hand, you have Hot Shots Golf and a few others.
I think FFXIII will fall in to the former group and will sell approximately as well as its predecessors (perhaps 80-90% of FFXII's total).
outsold GT4 by vast amounts, but it was bundled. On the other hand, you have Hot Shots Golf and a few others.
I think FFXIII will fall in to the former group and will sell approximately as well as its predecessors (perhaps 80-90% of FFXII's total).
Opiate said:How have other longstanding franchises performed on the PS2->PS3 transition? My memory is that many have retained most of their sales. Examples including MGS and Tales of. GT5
On the other hand, you have Hot Shots Golf and a few others.
I think FFXIII will fall in to the former group and will sell approximately as well as its predecessors (perhaps 80-90% of FFXII's total).
I think on Tales you're falling victim to the post-PS2 expectations there.
achilles140
Banned
zero_suit said:
Mario Galaxy didnt reach 1 million in Japan,I dont know why everybody just assumes NSMBWii will make 2-3 million without sweating.It doesnt matter what NSMB did on the DS,they are different machines and different demographics.
Opiate said:
See, this right here is why you need to visit the weekly Media Create threads more. By and large, the big ones have tanked pretty handily compared to their PS2 predecessors. The only exceptions to that are MGS4 (still dropped by 10-15% vs. MGS3) and RE5 (initial release vs. year late port, and that's only outdone the PS2 version by about 10-20K). DMC4 was > DMC3, but DMC3 was a big drop from DMC2, and DMC4 was still much more front-loaded of a game than DMC3. Tales is a huge drop. GT5
is a huge drop (GT4 was ~750K in Japan).Opiate said:
Visit MC threads more.
achilles140 said:
Super Mario Galaxy only turned around when Nintendo started putting out commercials that directly compared SMG to NSMB on DS. Just putting that out there. :lol
I'm basing my analysis on the following:
1. NSMB sold 5M+ on the DS, but people expecting NSMB Wii to have that kind of success translate from Handheld to Console will be very disappointed.
2. Best selling mario game on last 3 consoles nintendo has released (N64, GC, Wii) in Japan is Mario Kart Wii, with around 2,3M+ units sold.
3. Best selling mario platform game was Mario 64 with 1,639,921.
4. Mario Galaxy didn't even reach a million.
1. NSMB sold 5M+ on the DS, but people expecting NSMB Wii to have that kind of success translate from Handheld to Console will be very disappointed.
2. Best selling mario game on last 3 consoles nintendo has released (N64, GC, Wii) in Japan is Mario Kart Wii, with around 2,3M+ units sold.
3. Best selling mario platform game was Mario 64 with 1,639,921.
4. Mario Galaxy didn't even reach a million.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
markatisu said:
True, but lets be honest, these are the two major games of the season. These are the two games that will push their respective hardware.
If FF13's sales are more front loaded than NSMB's, then FF13's hardware bump will also be more front loaded than NSMB's. Thus the PS3 will outsell the Wii within that short term period.
donny2112 said:See, this right here is why you need to visit the weekly Media Create threads more. By and large, the big ones have tanked pretty handily compared to their PS2 predecessors. The only exceptions to that are MGS4 (still dropped by 10-15% vs. MGS3) and RE5 (initial release vs. year late port, and that's only outdone the PS2 version by about 10-20K). DMC4 was > DMC3, but DMC3 was a big drop from DMC2, and DMC4 was still much more front-loaded of a game than DMC3. Tales is a huge drop. GT5
Visit MC threads more.
Or I could simply ask you. Here are my options:
1) Spend time each week visiting these threads and making sure my information is up to date and reasonably comprehensive.
2) Come in once, ask a question, and get an answer.
The latter is far more time efficient.
Edit: Donny, there have been times in my life where I had ample time to not only check forums I'm interested in, but to thoroughly examine my personal love, Financial data. I'm far busier at work now and simply don't have time. It doesn't mean my interest has waned, however, so I need to ask questions of those who do keep up to help me keep up to speed.
I percieve a mild tone of hostility to this post, and it really doesn't seem warranted. I'm trying to make predictions based on historical data. I specifically stated that I don't have all that data in front of me, and asked for assistance. That seems like a thoroughly logical approach, to me.
With the new evidence in hand, I might predict that FFXIII will sell 70-90% as much as FFXII did. I believe, like MGS fans, most FF fans will follow the franchise even if it lands on a comparatively unpopular system.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
NSMB didn't just do a lot better than Super Mario Galaxy, but a lot better than every 3D Mario platformer combined. This leads most of us to think that a new non-3D Mario platformer might put up numbers quite a bit bigger than Galaxy.achilles140 said:
slaughterking
Member
ilbambino said:
1. This has nothing to do with a "handheld to console transition", but with the fact that NSMB Wii is the follow-up to a game that sold 5 million units. I don't think there is a specific preference for 2D Jump 'n' Runs to be on either portable or home console.
2. Yeah, a multiplayer-focused Mario game selling the most should give you something to think about in regard to NSMB Wii.
3./4. I'm not sure what point you're tying to make. 3D Mario games didn't sell as well as NSMB and other 2D iterations?
achilles140
Banned
Opiate said:How have other longstanding franchises performed on the PS2->PS3 transition? My memory is that many have retained most of their sales. Examples including MGS and Tales of. GT5
On the other hand, you have Hot Shots Golf and a few others.
I think FFXIII will fall in to the former group and will sell approximately as well as its predecessors (perhaps 80-90% of FFXII's total).
Yakuza 3 sold as much as Yakuza 2.DMC4 sold more that DMC3.Resident Evil 5 sold more that RE4 for the PS2.PES is selling barely the same amounts on the 300-350k units.MGS4 has sold a bit more that MGS3 and the same as MGS2.Gran Turismo 5 Prologue with its two re-releases has sold some 600K units and not counting with the PSN version so better that GT4 Prologue,it could be even a lot better with the PSN version .Hot Shots Golf has surpassed 500K in sales ,a bit less that in the PS2.Dynasty Warriors are selling nearly on par with the PS2 versions.
For this winter PS3 has in Japan Bayonetta ,Tekken 6 ,White Knight Ex ,Uncharted 2 ,Infamous ,Dragonball Z ,Pro Evolution Soccer 2010 ,Final Fantasy XIII ...plus many more small occidental releases (some not so small Assasins Creed sold more than 100K first time round and COD4 with the Best re-release is nearing the amazing 200K mark).The Wii lineup has NSMB Wii has a heavy hitter (and again,it could do a Mario Galaxy and not reach 1 million there) but little more.
On 2010 I can think about SOIV ,Resonance of Fate ,Gran Turismo 5 ,Lost Planet 2 ,Dead Rising 2 ,Quantum Theory ,Final Fantasy XIV ,Yakuza 4 ,The Last Guardian ,Front Mission Evolved ,Alpha Protocol ....on the Wii side theres Mario Galaxy 2,Metroid Another M(not a great franchise there) ....and little more.
achilles140
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:NSMB didn't just do a lot better than Super Mario Galaxy, but a lot better than every 3D Mario platformer combined. This leads most of us to think that a new non-3D Mario platformer might put up numbers quite a bit bigger than Galaxy.
Maybe ,but I think its more due to 2D being more related to a handheld and the demographics of the DS liking Mario.Most of my friends with Wiis bought it for Wii Sports and Wii Fir and couldnt care less for Mario .....2d or 3d.
Opiate said:
Perfectly reasonable. I'm in a similar boat with MC threads and NPD Prediction/main Thread being about it for me at the moment. Could you ask the question and get an answer before coming to a conclusion, though?
Also, Moor-Angol's site is a great resource for comparing LTDs in Japan, if you don't keep up with this stuff every week.
achilles140 said:
Ok these two statements are blatantly incorrect.
achilles140 said:
I'm not interested in list wars, but this list is just so off I must comment. As one example, you list Uncharted 2, where the first sold less than 50,000 units and ignore multiple Wii games that will probably break 200K (SW3, Tales of Graces, Crystal Bearers, Mario and Sonic, Taiko Wii 2).
Before you just randomly list games, try and find out reasonable sales expectations for that region, not just how awesome the game is.
test_account
XP-39C²
markatisu said:
Ah ok, then the Wii version of Shaun White Snowboarding sold pretty good i must say. I can see why Ubisoft makes a Wii sequel. Thanks for the info to the both of you, markatisu and schuelma!schuelma said:
Ah yes, that is true, Rabbids TV Party will also get Balance Board support indeedmarkatisu said:
DangerousDave
Member
So, MH3 is not a failure, because we can't expect that a console game sells the same as a portable game (even if the portable game is a re-release of a game of 4 years ago and the console one is a completly new game).
But NSMB-Wii will sell the same as NSMB DS.
Something doesn't compute, here...
But NSMB-Wii will sell the same as NSMB DS.
Something doesn't compute, here...
achilles140 said:
Nope. Ryu ga Gotoku 2 sold 100k more than RgG3's LTD right now, and that's not counting the 200k more it sold as a Best title.
Yup, by like 30k.
Yup, by like 20k.
Nope. In fact MGS4 has sold about as much as MGS1, which is lower than both MGS3 and MGS2. MGS3 is the best selling MGS game in Japan btw, it sold more than MGS2.
Again, wrong. GT5 Prologue combined has sold under 600k. GT4 Prologue sold over 700k.
If by "a bit less" you mean sold "half of that on the PS2" then okay, sure.
Yeaaaaaah no, that's not true at all. Unless you mean it's selling on par with PS2 versions released RIGHT NOW at the same time. Then yeah, the PS2 versions outsell it by a little bit. If you're comparing with previous PS2 releases, no way.
So, the question is, are you just really bad at sales-age or are you trying to propagate lies? :lol
Olaeh said:
- Re: ToG. If there is a sure thing 3rd party wise this holiday (well, besides Taiko Wii), I think this is it. I think expecting 300K is realistic- ToS:KoR did 212K and this should be a much more high profile release.
- I don't think FF13 will really hurt it. Tales is a really front loaded series anyways, and most Wii owners I assume won't be buying FF13.
- The SW3 release date kind of confuses me..there was open room before and after NSMB Wii but they chose the same day. Maybe they think increased traffic will help? I don't have very high expectations for SW3..maybe 200K?
I'm doing the math now.
Yakuza is down ~15%, MGS is down about ~15%, Hot Shots Golf is down a preciptous ~60%, GT is down ~10%, and Dynasty Warriors is down ~60% from its 2003 high on the PS2.
So anywhere from ~10%-60% across the board, save Resident Evil and Devil May Cry.
This is NOT including Tales of. ToV will be lucky to sell 50% of its 2002 high.
If you were to simply average these out (which isn't fair, really, because these games sell in significantly different quantities, but it's napkin math), the average percentage drop across all these games is ~35%.
Yakuza is down ~15%, MGS is down about ~15%, Hot Shots Golf is down a preciptous ~60%, GT
is down ~10%, and Dynasty Warriors is down ~60% from its 2003 high on the PS2. So anywhere from ~10%-60% across the board, save Resident Evil and Devil May Cry.
This is NOT including Tales of. ToV will be lucky to sell 50% of its 2002 high.
If you were to simply average these out (which isn't fair, really, because these games sell in significantly different quantities, but it's napkin math), the average percentage drop across all these games is ~35%.
JoshuaJSlone said:I know we can't expect NSMB Wii or FF XIII to sell like their immediate predecessors, but given we all accept Final Fantasy is more frontloaded I was curious how long that put the last FF in the lead of the last NSMB. Sooo NSMB vs FF XII.
Looks like NSMB takes over on week 9.
Awesome, time travelers are some of my favorite people. Can you tell us who will win Japan this year in total sales, Wii or PS3?
*edit*
Now I feel dumb, didn't have my contacts in and misread FFXII as FFXIII, but still if you ARE a time traveler, let us know please.
Opiate said:
I think RE and DMC have very good explanations for the rise. RE4 on the PS2 was a port from the original GC version. It's also a game with amazing word of mouth, which certainly helped the sequel. DMC3 came out riding on terrible word of mouth after DMC2, but impressed people enough that they were actually looking forward to the next game after that. It's a case of brand fluctuation. When compared with franchises which are consistent, there's no question that the PS3 is seeing about a 15% drop at least because of the weak take up since launch resulting in a much weaker installed base.
donny2112 said:Why are you combining GT5
Because it's fun to show that even with his magic fantasy numbers, it STILL doesn't create the reality he wants it to be.
achilles140 said:
Looking at the previews and hands on time, this is the one of the best and most appealing Mario title in a long while. Its on a machine that has a large male and female user base and females seem to like 2D Mario a lot. The super guide feature and its excellent multi player mode could also help spread the word. If we add all this together it really doesn't seem that hard for this title to make it to 3 million. I expect even more.
But yeah, I understand the skepticism.
DangerousDave said:
This is a fair argument. What I would say though is that Monster Hunter is a multiplayer franchise and consoles made that portion less accessible which could pose a problem. I think in NSMB Wii case the multiplayer is more accessible and more of the highlight, and the single player should get a nice boost too so one would expect appeal to be even broader. There might also be a Sony camp versus Nintendo camp issue too, where the preception of it as a Nintendo title wasn't all there and some less intense fans were expecting it on a different platform but not willing to buy it on another. NSMB Wii probably wouldn't have this.
Hmmm...
Hey, Achilles. I think I've found your heel.
Maaan. You'll round Dynasty Warriors 600k up to be "nearly on par," and you'll round HSG 600,000 up to be "a bit less than" the PS2, but you won't give Galaxy the extra 40k to hit a million? Ice cold!
achilles140 said:
Code:
Yakuza 2 PS2 572,917
Yakuza 2 (Best) PS2 201,866
Yakuza 3 PS3 493,032achilles140 said:
Code:
PES 6 PS2 1,116,786
PES 7 PS2 1,100,238
PES 8 PS2 1,059,585
PES 9 PS2 934,496
PES 10 PS2 1,050,319
PES '08 PS2 680,152
PES '08 PS3 316,533
PES '09 PS2 231,174
PES '09 PS3 396,136achilles140 said:
Code:
MGS2 PS2 798,185
MSG2: S PS2 147,561
MGS3 PS2 819,807
MGS3: S PS2 133,339
MGS4 PS3 705,772achilles140 said:
Code:
GT4P PS2 747,692
GT4P (Best) PS2 120,298
GT5P PS3 238,578
GT5P A Spec PS3 295,174achilles140 said:
Code:
HSG3 PS2 921,906
HSG4 PS2 1,083,079
HSG5 PS3 410,052achilles140 said:
Code:
Musou 2 PS2 1,042,819
Musou 3 PS2 1,197,349
Musou 4 PS2 917,985
Musou 5 PS3 371,443Hey, Achilles. I think I've found your heel.
achilles140 said:
Code:
Galaxy Wii 964,414Maaan. You'll round Dynasty Warriors 600k up to be "nearly on par," and you'll round HSG 600,000 up to be "a bit less than" the PS2, but you won't give Galaxy the extra 40k to hit a million? Ice cold!
achilles140
Banned
wrowa said:
Am I mistaken or Smaurai Warriors 3 is Sengoku Basara 3 ...a Wii and PS3 game that will probably sell a lot more on the PS3?
And yes ,looking at the numbers it seems Dynasty Warriors is down for a large amount ,and the same for Hot Shots Golf .Samurai Warriors we will see soon but I doubt it can keep the 1 million units of the first game.But many games have retained 80-85% of its sales.Tales of Vesperia will be down a lot compared to Tales of Destiny 2 (750K) but not so much against Tales of the Abyss and Tales of Symphonia.If you add the numbers of the 360 version of Tales of Vesperia it will end up there with Tales of the Abyss and above Tales of Symphonia.Metal Gear Solid 4 is slowly crawling to MGS2 and 3 numbers.Yakuza 3 is above Yakuza 1 and not far from Yakuza 2 and it still has to receive a PS3 The Best re-release.
Considering the differences in userbases the PS3 games are holding their own pretty well and most not falling a great deal.Plus we have to consider the hardcore market is in a all-time low there.For example the re-releases in the PS2 era were massive and with great legs ....now ,not so much.
achilles140 said:
You're getting Sengoku's mixed up.
Sengoku Musou 3 = Samurai Warriors 3 = Wii-only
Sengoku Basara 3 = Devil Kings 3 = Wii/PS3
Acosta said:Bravo ethelred, late with the correction and late with the joke
Yes, but it's all put together so nicely.
Tag material?
AranhaHunter
Banned
ethelred said:
Surely PES 10 is a typo?
Edit: Realized it's not a typo, I was thinking of PES '10.
Are you sure those GT4P numbers are right? PD has it at 790k and GT5P at 690k, so the numbers you provided would mean that it sold more than shipment figures from PD.
Not an expert in Japanese culture here, but could it be possible that the reason HSG5 has dropped a lot more than other games is because of its casual nature? I mean, I can see hardcore gamers paying five hundred and ninety nine dollars to play MGS4 or GT5, but I can't see someone doing the same to play HSG5.