So a few thoughts from someone that has actually done M&A work.
- Team Bloober is pretty small. Total revenue under 30 million złoty or about USD 7.5 million.
- They are a publicly traded company - Warsaw Stock Exchange. Market cap under USD 60 million
- Becuase they’re publicly traded we’ll see regulatory announcements like this
- The announcement that they are shortlisting advisors for a potential M&A process doesn’t say whether this is buy side or sell side. People are presuming the latter, which is more likely given their size but not certain.
- The announcement was that they are shortlisting 6 firms for 2nd round proposals, so they’ve got a way to go before completing this process. I wouldn’t assume any deal to be imminent. It may not even happen at all.
Sure, Microsoft might buy Bloober. They could do it easily. So could any number of other players in the industry.
My question is why would they?
Yes, Microsoft are enormous but studios aren’t in-game collectibles. You still need to manage your studios, have a strategy, etc. MS have had a major splurge on this over the last couple of years, tbh they’re in the phase where they need to get the management of these studios ticking over. Adding a small studio geographically remote from their other assets would potentially add challenges.
Dont get me wrong, they may well be thinking that strategically they want a cluster of studios in central and Eastern Europe, in which case Bloober would make more sense and would just be a first step.
Edit: as it stands Xbox games studios has very few assets outside of two main geographies: West coast USA/Canada (343, DoubleFine, InXile, Obsidian, Coalition, Initiative, Turn 10, Undead, Worlds Edge) and just North of London (Rare, Ninja Theory, Playground). Other than that they have Mojang (Sweden) and Compulsion (Montreal).