• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NeoGAF 2013 Summer Movie Box Office Prediction League

Status
Not open for further replies.

kswiston

Member
UPDATE! JUNE PREDICTIONS OPEN UNTIL JUL 3RD

With Ironman 3 just a few weeks away, the summer movie season is fast approaching. Considering how much entertainment came from this thread: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=470005 last year, I thought it would be fun to start a summer prediction league. If you want to participate, fill out the form below. I will update the leaderboard and loserboard standings every 1-2 weeks as summer progresses. Winners will get to brag about their Nostradamus like skills while losers will have to learn to like the taste of roasted crow.

Feel free to make predictions for movies that you think will fall outside of the ranks listed on the form, just make sure you keep those predictions separate. Also feel free to discuss summer box office predictions in general!


How to Participate:

PREDICTION MONTH 3: July 2013 - NOTE: Standings will be separated by month, so feel free to join in even if you missed May/June

Copy the form below into your post. Other than entering your box office predictions, Do Not Modify it in any way! Predictions are due on Jul 3rd, 2013.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JULY 2013

Despicable Me (Opening July 3rd, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Lone Ranger (Opening July 3rd, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Grown Ups 2 (Opening July 12th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Pacific Rim (Opening July 12th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

R.I.P.D (Opening July 19th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Red 2 (Opening June 19th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Wolverine (Opening July 26th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes:
1) Do not modify the form in any way. Just copy it as is into your reply and replace the missing number values

2) Domestic Totals will be based on final gross as of Aug 31st for all June titles.

3) Opening weekend is defined the domestic box office gross a movie makes from its opening night to its first Sunday. If a movie opens on a Friday, you will predict a 3 day opening weekend. If it opens on a Wednesday, you will predict a 5 day opening weekend.

4) You do not have to predict worldwide grosses if you do not want to. They will be counted separately in a special bracket.



How the scoring will Work:

1) Every total box office prediction can earn you up to 100 points. Points earned drop off in a linear fashion based on how far off your prediction was. You need to be within 50% over or under to receive points for a film. For example, if you predict $200M for Man of Steel and it makes $200M, you would receive 100 points. If it makes $250M, you would receive 50 points. If it makes $300M+, you receive nothing.

2) Every opening weekend box office prediction can earn you up to 50 points. Points earned drop off in the manner described above.

3) If you guess the bomb of the month correctly, you get a 100 point bonus.

4) Worldwide gross predictions are optional and will not count against you.


Not sure where to start? Check the release slate below.


June 2013 Movie List

After Earth
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Cast: Will Smith, Jaden Smith, Isabelle Fuhrman
Plot: A crash landing leaves Kitai Raige (Jaden Smith) and his father Cypher (Will Smith) stranded on Earth, 1,000 years after events forced humanity's escape. With Cypher injured, Kitai must embark on a perilous journey to signal for help.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUcNyzu4IdM

This is the End
Director: Evan Goldberg, Seth Rogen
Cast: James Franco, Jonah Hill, Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson
Plot: While attending a party at James Franco's house, Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel and many other celebrities are faced with the apocalypse.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i24fo2W5EaE

Man of Steel
Director: Zack Snyder
Cast: Henry Cavill, Russell Crowe, Amy Adams, Kevin Costner, Michael Shannon
Plot: A young journalist, molded by the morals of his earth parents, discovers that he is gifted with powers beyond his imagination, and he uses those powers to defend his adopted home from an insidious evil.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVu3gS7iJu4

Monsters University
Director: Dan Scanlon
Cast: Billy Crystal, John Goodman, Steve Buscemi
Plot: A look at the relationship between Mike and Sulley during their days at Monsters University - when they weren't necessarily the best of friends.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODePHkWSg-U

World War Z
Director: Marc Forster
Cast: Brad Pitt, Mireille Enos, David Morse, Matthew Fox
Plot: United Nations employee Gerry Lane traverses the world in a race against time to stop the Zombie pandemic that is toppling armies and governments, and threatening to decimate humanity itself.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcwTxRuq-uk

The Heat
Director: Paul Feig
Cast: Sandra Bullock, Melissa McCarthy, Marlon Wayans
Plot: Uptight FBI special agent Sarah Ashburn is paired with testy Boston cop Shannon Mullins in order to take down a ruthless drug lord. The hitch: neither woman has ever had a partner -- or a friend for that matter.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-KKx0lcn2A

White House Down
Director: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Channing Tatum, Jamie Foxx, Maggie Gyllenhaal
Plot: While on a tour of the White House with his young daughter, a Capitol policeman springs into action to save his child and protect the president from a heavily armed group of paramilitary invaders.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AXbiCdmXgw


July 2013 Movie List


Dispicable Me 2
Director: Pierre Coffin, Chris Renaud
Cast: Steve Carell, Al Pacino, Kristen Wiig, Russell Brand
Plot: Gru is recruited by the Anti-Villain League to help deal with a powerful new super criminal.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwXbtZXjbVE\\

The Lone Ranger
Director: Gore Verbinski
Cast: Johnny Depp, Armie Hammer, Tom Wilkinson
Plot: Native American warrior Tonto recounts the untold tales that transformed John Reid, a man of the law, into a legend of justice.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjFsNSoDZK8

Pacific Rim
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Cast: Idris Elba, Charlie Hunnam, Rinko Kikuchi, Ron Perlman
Plot: When an alien attack threatens the Earth's existence, giant robots piloted by humans are deployed to fight off the menace.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A85EtOalcsM

Grown Ups 2
Director: Dennis Dugan
Cast: Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, Salma Hayek, Andy Samberg, Taylor Lautner
Plot: The all-star comedy cast from Grown Ups returns (with some exciting new additions) for more summertime laughs. Lenny (Adam Sandler) has relocated his family back to the small town where he and his friends grew up. This time around, the grown ups are the ones learning lessons from their kids on a day notoriously full of surprises: the last day of school.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq5CIH0duMk

Turbo
Director: David Soren
Cast: Ryan Reynolds, Paul Giamatti, Maya Rudolph
Plot: A freak accident might just help an everyday garden snail achieve his biggest dream: winning the Indy 500.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-L5bzwdpVI

R.I.P.D.
Director: Robert Schwentke
Cast: Ryan Reynolds, Jeff Bridges, Mary-Louise Parker, Kevin Bacon
Plot: A recently slain cop joins a team of undead police officers working for the Rest in Peace Department and tries to find the man who murdered him.
Trailer: Not Released

Red 2
Director: Dean Parisot
Cast: Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, Mary-Louise Parker, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren
Plot: Frank Moses and his motley crew of retired assassins return for a second outing.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTcWTf-pfyU

The Wolverine
Director: James Mangold
Cast: Hugh Jackman, Will Yun Lee, Tao Okamoto
Plot: Wolverine makes a voyage to modern-day Japan, where he encounters an enemy from his past that will impact on his future.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-Yu9uwHLVI


August 2013 Movie List


2 Guns
Director: Baltasar Kormákur
Cast: Denzel Washington, Mark Wahlberg, Paula Patton, James Marsden, Bill Paxton, Edward James Olmos
Plot: A DEA agent and an undercover Naval Intelligence officer who have been tasked with investigating one another find they have been set up by the mob -- the very organization the two men believe they have been stealing money from.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVNe3RK2fgI

Disney's Planes
Director: Klay Hall
Cast: Dane Cook, Stacy Keach, Priyanka Chopra, Brad Garrett, Teri Hatcher, Carlos Alazraqui
Plot: Dusty is a cropdusting plane who dreams of competing in a famous aerial race. The problem? He is hopelessly afraid of heights. With the support of his mentor Skipper and a host of new friends, Dusty sets off to make his dreams come true.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPemxNx1B4k

Elysium
Director: Neill Blomkamp
Cast: Matt Damon, Jodie Foster, Sharlto Copley
Plot: Set in the year 2159, where the very wealthy live on a man-made space station while the rest of the population resides on a ruined Earth, a man takes on a mission that could bring equality to the polarized worlds.
Trailer: Not Released

Kick-Ass 2
Director: Jeff Wadlow
Cast: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Chloë Grace Moretz, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Jim Carrey
Plot: The costumed high-school hero Kick-Ass joins with a group of normal citizens who have been inspired to fight crime in costume. Meanwhile, the Red Mist plots an act of revenge that will affect everyone Kick-Ass knows.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UMbwxbgv8U

The World’s End
Director: Edgar Wright
Cast: Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, Martin Freeman
Plot: Five friends who reunite in an attempt to top their epic pub crawl from 20 years earlier unwittingly become humankind's only hope for survival.
Trailer: Not Released
 

Raxus

Member
I hate guessing exact amounts but Iron Man 3, Monsters U, and Star Trek will probably be in the top 3.

World War Z will bomba.
 

jakncoke

Banned
1) Iron Man 3 $325 million
2) Monsters University $295 million
3) Star Trek into Darkness $250 million
4) Man of Steel $240 million
5) Despicable Me 2 $235 million
6)Fast and Furious 6 $200 million
7)Hangover 3 $189 million
8) 300: Rise of An Empire $170 million
9) The Wolverine $165 million
10) After Earth $160 million

It was hard enough to pull these numbers out my ass, if I continue I might not have an anus left. One to note for bombs Lone Ranger will probably top it all
 

kswiston

Member
Hmm, Maybe this would be easier/more interesting if we broke it up by month. By Apr 15th, people just predict the notable May movies. In the middle of May we'll predict June. Etc.

You would have to give predictions of box office number for the month's movies. but you would only be focusing on movies that are a few weeks from release, and would not have to think about the entire summer. I can calculate top 10 lists after the fact by aggregating your numbers.

Opinions?
 

kswiston

Member
I have substantially changed the way this thread will work to hopefully make things easier (and gain more participation). Instead of trying to sort out the whole summer, we'll now predict movies a month at a time. This should make it easier to gauge hype and box office potential.

If you want to participate, copy the May Movies form in the OP to your reply post.

Sorry for changing things Jakncoke!
 

jakncoke

Banned
Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $115 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $325 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650 million

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $28 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $70 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300 million

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $80 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $250 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $400 million

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $31 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $80 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200 million

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $80 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $200 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650 million

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $60 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $189 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $500 million

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $24 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $60 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $150 million

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $17 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $55 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $100 million

Bomb of the Month: This would mean I'd have to look up budgets!
 

kswiston

Member
Bomb of the Month: This would mean I'd have to look up budgets!

It's still early, but I added in some budget estimates to the movie info section. I will replace those with BOM number closer to release.



BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $150M
- Domestic Total Gross: $340M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $850M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $25M
- Domestic Total Gross: $55M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $190M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $125M
- Domestic Total Gross: $325M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650M

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $35M (3 Day Memorial Weekend total)
- Domestic Total Gross: $110M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $350M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $95M (3 Day Memorial Weekend total)
- Domestic Total Gross: $230M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $700M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $75M (3 Day Memorial Weekend total)
- Domestic Total Gross: $210M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $480M

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $20M
- Domestic Total Gross: $45M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $130M

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $15M
- Domestic Total Gross: $30M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $45M

Bomb of the Month: The Great Gatsby
 
Dude, you have way too many movies there. I haven't even heard of half of them, much less care about how much money they'll make. Just put down the top 5 movies for the summer or something.

Also, another idea: the problem with totals is that by the time we actually get them, no one cares about predictions anymore. By the time Hobbit hit 1billion, the predictions thread was long dead and buried. Doing week 1 and week 2 would probably be more interesting. Just a thought.
 

jakncoke

Banned
If less than 10 people predict, I have a guaranteed top 10 finish

tumblr_me9ztcKFAw1r0dkjuo1_500.gif
 

kswiston

Member
If less than 10 people predict, I have a guaranteed top 10 finish

tumblr_me9ztcKFAw1r0dkjuo1_500.gif

You think we should just cut down the predictions to the biggest movies? Perhaps that and a shout out in tomorrows Wkd Box Office thread will get some attention. If not, obviously we are the only two interested, and I'll just let the thread die :p
 

Measley

Junior Member
Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek, and FF6 are my top picks as being the top grossing movies.

I predict a lot of bombs this year.
 
Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $160M
- Domestic Total Gross: $500M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $45M
- Domestic Total Gross: $120M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $110M
- Domestic Total Gross: $445M

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $40M
- Domestic Total Gross: $95M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $70M
- Domestic Total Gross: $200M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $65M
- Domestic Total Gross: $185M

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $50M
- Domestic Total Gross: $95M

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $6M
- Domestic Total Gross: $35M

Bomb of the Month: The Purge
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $89M
- Domestic Total Gross: $285M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $680M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $125M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $220M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $78M
- Domestic Total Gross: $189M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $425M

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $89M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $135M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $52M
- Domestic Total Gross: $108M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $180M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $68M
- Domestic Total Gross: $135M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $180M

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $28M
- Domestic Total Gross: $55M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $85M

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $15M
- Domestic Total Gross: $35M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $55M

Bomb of the Month: Epic


You think we should just cut down the predictions to the biggest movies? Perhaps that and a shout out in tomorrows Wkd Box Office thread will get some attention. If not, obviously we are the only two interested, and I'll just let the thread die :p

i think having just the bigger ones and maybe some of the middle-tier ones are fine. i didnt know what Epic or The Purge or Now You See Me were, but its interesting to still be able to try and predict them
 
One suggestion, maybe limit this to opening weekend (since those are the numbers most people are familiar with). Then do Total Gross as an optional.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
One suggestion, maybe limit this to opening weekend (since those are the numbers most people are familiar with). Then do Total Gross as an optional.

also, is domestic total gross only for the month, or 2 months or what?

cause there will be some that release later in the month...

i based mine on pretty much the whole possible run.

im guessing the latter is what we are doing, so we wont get any points for those until they are completely out of theaters. or at <100 theaters or something.
 
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $130
- Domestic Total Gross: $400
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $900

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $25
- Domestic Total Gross: $75
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $115

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $70
- Domestic Total Gross: $225
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $600

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $40
- Domestic Total Gross: $125
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $400

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $65
- Domestic Total Gross: $200
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $700

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $30
- Domestic Total Gross: $160
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $30
- Domestic Total Gross: $110
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $25
- Domestic Total Gross: $60
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $120

Bomb of the Month: The Great Gatsby

Why WW is considered bonus? WW do matter a lot at success or failures of movies.


After May, this summer really nose dives.

After Earth looks great :)
 

kswiston

Member
also, is domestic total gross only for the month, or 2 months or what?

cause there will be some that release later in the month...

i based mine on pretty much the whole possible run.

im guessing the latter is what we are doing, so we wont get any points for those until they are completely out of theaters. or at <100 theaters or something.

All movies will get at 8-10 weeks, which typically counts for 95-99% of the box office run. If we somehow get an Avatar-like run where a film is still making $5-15M a weekend after 10 weeks, I will extend the window, but the large majority of films are in dollar cinemas after 2-3 months. The general cut off for may films will be the end of July. I will start the point tally a lot earlier than that though. You will just continue to gain or lose points as films continue to make money.

Why WW is considered bonus? WW do matter a lot at success or failures of movies.

Because only a handful of people on GAF follow worldwide grosses outside of the mega blockbusters. There's like 5 of us in the weekend threads that seem to care about OS updates unless they are for something like the Avengers.
 

jakncoke

Banned
hangover part iii and fast 6 on the same weekend will cannibalize their audiences methinks.

I think he means the franchise has been growing and you have OW dropping 40% from fast five, domestic run 49% and WW 73%. You do bring up something interesting, it'll be interesting to see how each do coming out the same weekend.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
I think he means the franchise has been growing and you have OW dropping 40% from fast five, domestic run 49% and WW 73%. You do bring up something interesting, it'll be interesting to see how each do coming out the same weekend.

there's not really a mistake that i put hangover part iii and fast 6 at about the same $ amount worldwide. i think fast 6 will have longer staying power and hangover will be top loaded, but in the end they're going to be about the same.

i could be wrong and their numbers could both be higher, but i think the general gist is that they're going to be what i said above.



also, i think it'd be fun to add a "weekly" contest of just ranking the movies in order rather than straight $ amounts. i know that would create a lot of work though.... but maybe not if there's only like 6 of us.
 

kswiston

Member
there's not really a mistake that i put hangover part iii and fast 6 at about the same $ amount worldwide. i think fast 6 will have longer staying power and hangover will be top loaded, but in the end they're going to be about the same.

i could be wrong and their numbers could both be higher, but i think the general gist is that they're going to be what i said above.



also, i think it'd be fun to add a "weekly" contest of just ranking the movies in order rather than straight $ amounts. i know that would create a lot of work though.... but maybe not if there's only like 6 of us.

I'll link this thread to tomorrow's box office thread and see if anyone else wants to join in. If participation stays on the low end, I might also extend the May prediction deadline until we are closer to Iron Man's release and the summer movie hype is higher. All of you who already participated are free to change your numbers in the meantime as well.
 

artist

Banned
You think we should just cut down the predictions to the biggest movies? Perhaps that and a shout out in tomorrows Wkd Box Office thread will get some attention. If not, obviously we are the only two interested, and I'll just let the thread die :p
Yeah, cut down on the number of movies - make it simpler so you'll get more people participating.

Anyway, here's my rough est for May;

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $140M
- Domestic Total Gross: $320M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $825M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $30M
- Domestic Total Gross: $65M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $240M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $115M
- Domestic Total Gross: $275M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $660M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $90M (3 Day Memorial Weekend total)
- Domestic Total Gross: $275M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $725M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $60M (3 Day Memorial Weekend total)
- Domestic Total Gross: $200M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $520M
 

Busty

Banned
I have a horrible track record of late for predicting the box office performance of films of late but here we go.

Also I think if one 'mega film' this year is going to surprise people under/over it's going to be the TREK sequel. Far too many variables there.

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $1440M
- Domestic Total Gross: $340M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $690M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $30m
- Domestic Total Gross: $90M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $90M
- Domestic Total Gross: $220M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $475M

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $60M
- Domestic Total Gross: $120M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $400M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $95M
- Domestic Total Gross: $230M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $660M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $80M
- Domestic Total Gross: $250M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650M

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $17M
- Domestic Total Gross: $46M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $100M

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $20M
- Domestic Total Gross: $65M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $90M

Bomb of the Month: Though 'bomb' might be a little harsh I'd say the The Great Gatsby. I think it's going to do the same business as WB's other big star release last May Dark Shadows.
 

kswiston

Member
I am going to extend the May deadline a week (to April 21st) to see if anyone else wants to join. If not, I'll run the game with the 7 of us. You can adjust any of your predictions until next Saturday.
 

Pachinko

Member
I'll bite.

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $150M
- Domestic Total Gross: $380M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $750M

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $25M
- Domestic Total Gross: $80M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300M

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $85M
- Domestic Total Gross: $250M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $600M

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $110M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $470M

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $80M
- Domestic Total Gross: $250M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $750M

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $50M
- Domestic Total Gross: $220M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $550M

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $15M
- Domestic Total Gross: $50M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $110M

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $8M
- Domestic Total Gross: $18M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $21M

Bomb of the Month: The Great Gatsby


I didn't really make any wild accusations there really, while none of these movies should tank on a huge level the writings been on the wall for ages now, attendance in movie theaters drops every year and domestic box office totals are stagnant only because 3d ticket prices have inflated grosses slightly. It's all about the world wide market now. I don't expect any of these films to truly bomb worldwide but is anyone honestly excited or even at all interested in seeing a remake of the great gatsby ? Because of that I've chosen it as the bomb of the month , I just expect it'll be the weakest return on investment.
 

kswiston

Member
After Earth just moved dates from June 7th to May 31st.

Should we add it to the May predictions or just start the June Predictions early since that last weekend is May 31st-June 2nd?
 
I'll bite. Not guessing at worldwide though, for the reasons another poster laid out above.

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $92
- Domestic Total Gross: $270


The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $37
- Domestic Total Gross: $125


Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $110
- Domestic Total Gross: $300


Epic
- Opening Weekend: $35
- Domestic Total Gross: $170


Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $85
- Domestic Total Gross: $215


The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $55
- Domestic Total Gross: $200
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
Here we go...

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 2013

Iron Man 3
- Opening Weekend: $150M
- Domestic Total Gross: $600M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Great Gatsby
- Opening Weekend: $15M
- Domestic Total Gross: $50M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Star Trek Into Darkness
- Opening Weekend: $100M
- Domestic Total Gross: $500M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Epic
- Opening Weekend: $30M
- Domestic Total Gross: $200M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Fast and Furious 6
- Opening Weekend: $85M
- Domestic Total Gross: $400M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Hangover Part 3
- Opening Weekend: $60M
- Domestic Total Gross: $325M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Now You See Me
- Opening Weekend: $20M
- Domestic Total Gross: $90M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Purge
- Opening Weekend: $30M
- Domestic Total Gross: $150M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Bomb of the Month: Great Gatsby

I'm not going to do worldwide totals, that's out of my area of expertise.
 

kswiston

Member
Alright, Iron Man 3 has officially opened in some countries, so official predictions are closed for the month. People can still post their box office predictions for May movies if they wish, but I won't be scoring them.

A couple of weeks after opening this thread, After Earth moved to May 31st, and the Purge moved to June 6th. After Earth is a fairly big release, so to avoid missing it, I am going to Roll all May 31st movies into June and count May releases as films that open between May 1st and 30th (in the US/Canada). Both The Purge and Now You see Me won't be scored for this month.

Based on the input from some of the posters in this thread, I will try to cut down the June, July and August pools to movies that have a decent shot at grossing at least $100M domestic. Obviously this is easier to do for the action flicks than it is for the comedies.

Here were the GAF median predictions for May (not counting May 31st releases):

Code:
[B]Iron Man 3	[/B]
- Opening Weekend  	$142M
- Domestic Total Gross	$340M
- Worldwide Total	$750M

[B]The Great Gatsby[/B]	
- Opening Weekend  	$29M
- Domestic Total Gross	$77.5M
- Worldwide Total	$220M

Star Trek Into Darkness	
- Opening Weekend  	$95M
- Domestic Total Gross	$262.5M
- Worldwide Total 	$600M

Epic	
- Opening Weekend  	$35M
- Domestic Total Gross	$110M
- Worldwide Total	$375M

Fast and Furious 6	
- Opening Weekend  	$82.5M
- Domestic Total Gross	$222.5M
- Worldwide Total	$700M

The Hangover Part 3	
- Opening Weekend  	$60M
- Domestic Total Gross	$200M
- Worldwide Total	$500M
 

kswiston

Member
I will be doing the first points tally after this weekend, but IM3 is going to surpass every opening weekend prediction in this thread. Mushroomer25 will be pretty close. Those of you who predicted <$100 will have your predictions surpassed by the end of today.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Well I was pretty far off the mark there. At least I got half exactly of what it actually was. Lulz.
 

kswiston

Member
I am going to wait until tomorrow to post rankings, so that they are based on actuals instead of the weekend estimates, but most of us massively undershot on Iron Man 3.

If the estimates hold, you will need ~$120M+ on your IM3 opening weekend prediction to receive points. Domestic and Worldwide are obviously still up in the air, but we are probably looking at $400M/$1.1B on the low end.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom