I bet you the reason we got TTT2 on Wii U instead of SC5 was so that the Tekken team could cut their teeth on Wii U development in prep for Smash.
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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I bet you the reason we got TTT2 on Wii U instead of SC5 was so that the Tekken team could cut their teeth on Wii U development in prep for Smash.
Glass Rebel
Member
That's assuming Smash Bros. has enough pull to get people out to buy an expensive console.
true. that's why mario kart, super mario, tww hd, yarn yoshi, and maybe retro's game have to make it as well. of course, what is really necessary is the one big game that no one sees coming and captivates a huge audience. brain age, gta3, and wii sports are all examples of this. instead, nintendo seems to be doubling down on existing franchises.
I am not trolling, but who plays smash? Is it a game for kids, or does it attract more of a cod audience?
I mean, is the target demographic people with $350 for a console and $60 for a game, and do they feel passionately about Smash to buy a whole console for it?
Glass Rebel
Member
That's going to be hard to pull off looking at Nintendo's output in the last years of DS and Wii, unless they're sitting on a goldmine of ideas just for the hell of it.
From lowest to highest, I'd say:
- hardcore Smash fanbase
- Nintendo fans
- kids
there's a real hardcore audience for the game, but it generally reaches a wide audience (melee was the best-selling gamecube game, and brawl sold 10.79m copies). it's probably third behind mario kart and mario platformers in appeal for games from nintendo.
It's by far the biggest Nintendo title for "core" gamers. In fact, all the other Nintendo titles can have mid-size debuts and then they sell for years and years and years. Instead, Smash Bros. draws an unbelievable amount of attention immediatly: Brawl on Wii did almost 3 millions in its first month. I repeat, 3 millions in its first month. And the console at the time had a slightly bigger userbase than 3DS (little more than 8 millions).
well panic mode nintendo means rushed games. i think 3d mario is actually right on schedule. it was in a showable state last year, but nintendo pulled it from their e3 conference (along with retro's game, which was in a similar stage). mario kart will be tough, but possible, if they get outside help from retro and other teams. smash bros. is a little more difficult with sakurai having worked on kid icarus until early last year.
they're targeting some big sales goals though. they're not going to reach that off poor hardware and software sales. they'll need all the help they can get, and 3d mario and pokemon x/y aren't going to cut it by themselves.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
It's only proper. Even if the comparison looks worse for both.
Glass Rebel
Member
Well, there's still time to revise those targets
Mario Kart + 3D Mario + Retro's game (depending on what it is) could be good for gamers but I feel that they need to do something really unique with MKU to get the expanded audience to buy it instead of MKWii. I really think they've become a victim of their own success here. And releasing those three games in the same year opens up another issue: Holes in 2014 or 2015 unless third-parties step up. I don't know if it's wise to bank on that.
As for the 3DS, I think it's in a considerably better situation. Pokémon is obviously their big game for fall, hopefully something big for the holidays and until then they have Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion and Mario & Luigi: Dream Team. I think it's a solid line-up for a handheld that's already in the hands of a considerable amount of people.
Well, there's still time to revise those targets
Mario Kart + 3D Mario + Retro's game (depending on what it is) could be good for gamers but I feel that they need to do something really unique with MKU to get the expanded audience to buy it instead of MKWii. I really think they've become a victim of their own success here. And releasing those three games in the same year opens up another issue: Holes in 2014 or 2015 unless third-parties step up. I don't know if it's wise to bank on that.
As for the 3DS, I think it's in a considerably better situation. Pokémon is obviously their big game for fall, hopefully something big for the holidays and until then they have Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion and Mario & Luigi: Dream Team. I think it's a solid line-up for a handheld that's already in the hands of a considerable amount of people.
If iwata revises his targets again he is on his way out.
Iwata will try to do whatever he can to get wiiu and 3ds running
Its sad that they didnt massively up their workforce when wii was succesful and they had enough preparation time.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
At 57,000 units in its first January they're going to have to do some drastic things to right that ship.
MesserWolf
Member
I would say that unless Nintendo takes drastic measures, the Wii U is already dead. Even with price cut and revamped marketing strategy I am unsure of what kind of results they could achieve. As somebody here said, they need to attract the kids, families, be again the machine to buy to play with your kids and to have the kids playing with their friends.
This failure doesn't bode well for the other two competitors as well. The console market seems to be in a transition phase.
We are getting a lot of computational power for cheap these days, that means that my cellphone, my tablet, my smart tv can run games, perhaps simple and stupid games compared to AAA titles, but still they compete for 1 resource : the free time of people.
Moreover the cash available for high-tech games/entertaining is now also destined to smartphones and tablets .... which means that there is probably less cash available for an older kind of gadget/ device : consoles.
Nowadays you have to have a smartphone pretty much...., and most people (at least among the audience interested in high tech stuff) even change it quite often even : all money and resources not available to consoles.
Actually, looking how things are moving, I would say that an apple tv also console, would have much better chances to have good results than the historical players, in fact apple devices now are getting more and more integrated (thanks to the cloud etc etc)... for many such device would be really tempting .... and it would have the "cool" halo that many apple products have and that the Wii had (as party machine) and that now struggle to recreate.
Of course there still the market of the hardcore gamers that are not satisfied with small little games and want an AAA experience, and these people, us, will be the reason why at least one of the three new consoles will not fail (hopefully they will also understand the need to focus on such audience ), but the bottom line is that the market is now a lot tougher.
Even the rise of Steam is a threat to the new gen consoles actually, especially give that they are set to attack the living room with a Steam box.
I am not even sure whether there is even really space for 3/4 major players any more. Most probably not.
If I were in them I would really start to develop a concrete strategy to be successful in other markets, the emerging markets.
It was just inevitable that all this money flowing into smartphones and tablets, together with the success of the mobile games would have made a dent on the traditional market.... it is just too big, and for the new generations, for many, Angry Birds will be what Mario was for the older around here. When they will ask for a gift it will be Ipad mini or WiiU ...... well .... we know what they are choosing.
This failure doesn't bode well for the other two competitors as well. The console market seems to be in a transition phase.
We are getting a lot of computational power for cheap these days, that means that my cellphone, my tablet, my smart tv can run games, perhaps simple and stupid games compared to AAA titles, but still they compete for 1 resource : the free time of people.
Moreover the cash available for high-tech games/entertaining is now also destined to smartphones and tablets .... which means that there is probably less cash available for an older kind of gadget/ device : consoles.
Nowadays you have to have a smartphone pretty much...., and most people (at least among the audience interested in high tech stuff) even change it quite often even : all money and resources not available to consoles.
Actually, looking how things are moving, I would say that an apple tv also console, would have much better chances to have good results than the historical players, in fact apple devices now are getting more and more integrated (thanks to the cloud etc etc)... for many such device would be really tempting .... and it would have the "cool" halo that many apple products have and that the Wii had (as party machine) and that now struggle to recreate.
Of course there still the market of the hardcore gamers that are not satisfied with small little games and want an AAA experience, and these people, us, will be the reason why at least one of the three new consoles will not fail (hopefully they will also understand the need to focus on such audience ), but the bottom line is that the market is now a lot tougher.
Even the rise of Steam is a threat to the new gen consoles actually, especially give that they are set to attack the living room with a Steam box.
I am not even sure whether there is even really space for 3/4 major players any more. Most probably not.
If I were in them I would really start to develop a concrete strategy to be successful in other markets, the emerging markets.
It was just inevitable that all this money flowing into smartphones and tablets, together with the success of the mobile games would have made a dent on the traditional market.... it is just too big, and for the new generations, for many, Angry Birds will be what Mario was for the older around here. When they will ask for a gift it will be Ipad mini or WiiU ...... well .... we know what they are choosing.
Well, there's still time to revise those targets
Mario Kart + 3D Mario + Retro's game (depending on what it is) could be good for gamers but I feel that they need to do something really unique with MKU to get the expanded audience to buy it instead of MKWii. I really think they've become a victim of their own success here. And releasing those three games in the same year opens up another issue: Holes in 2014 or 2015 unless third-parties step up. I don't know if it's wise to bank on that.
nintendo would be smart to bank on x like it was a zelda title. there was buzz behind xenoblade and it did really well overseas compared to expectations. act like it's a game people should want, and it will do well. bundle it with the console for fuck's sake. that sort of thing is working with fire emblem.
2014 is probably x, bayonetta 2, animal crossing, fire emblem x smt, and a couple other things we don't know about. by the time 2015 rolls around, the zelda team should have something ready, and so should the people responsible for the wii u's launch games.
after that, nintendo can wind down the 3ds and wii u, and bring out their final system.
the 3ds never did great in the us, but it's starting to flounder. nsmb2 + 3ds xl didn't become the nsmb + ds lite boost from 2006, and pokemon is eight months off. it's a big issue regarding price. i think if nintendo doesn't see a marked improvement after pokemon, the 3ds will see a steeper price cut, or probably a pricecut alongside another revision. at that point, they'll have used every major card, and the system will be in decline. i think it might have already started its decline, actually. the expensive software is killing the system.
edit: and i do agree with messer that the wii u is already a dead console. i'm not sure it's even one nintendo can make any money from even if it was just them publishing a game a month.
Sure. However the lineup they had for the first four month (which is two games) kinda makes me believe that atleast internally the people at nintendo also did see it comming
Glass Rebel
Member
Revise targets and go now
or
keep targets, don't meet them and go later
if that's what it takes to give him the boot, he's done either way.
Or they can do what they did with xenoblade: bring it over grudgingly 2 years late, make it a one retailer exclusive, then cease sales and not offer it digitally so that anyone who wants to play it has to pay >$100 on ebay.
I just don't get Nintendo.
Frankfurter
Member
Nintendo really should drop the 3DS price this year. It has a pretty amazing lineup after all is said and done for 2013 and it absolutely needs to catch fire this year. Drop the price to 130 or 140 (OG) and 160 or 170 (XL) coinciding with the Animal Crossing release and the 2013 lineup + price cut + Pokemon momentum could very well push it up to a pretty good level until the end of 2014 with only an ~okay lineup needed in that year.
noa was full on translation stuff at the time xenoblade was being made, and probably didn't consider letting noe do all the gruntwork. they probably didn't expect too much in sales either (the last story did around 50-60k, which is GREAT for xseed, but preeeeetty low for most first-party nintendo games).
to their credit, they did bring it over specifically because their fans asked for it. hell, they brought over all three games people were requesting. they just might have been a bit wary because of what happened with s&p2, as well. s&p did amazing on the virtual console. taking that as a sign that americans were really into that series, a sequel was made, and only 50-60k people bought it.
But I can still buy and play Last Story and S&P2, as well as a tonne of other low selling wii games new at retail. But not Xenoblade, not even digitally.
hence, the headscratching.
if nintendo's worried about gaps in their lineup, i wouldn't be too surprised to see a xenoblade hd pop up somewhere, somehow.
the good news is that they know xenoblade had success overseas, or at least in america. so that should mean they'll give x some special attention whenever it comes out.
I hope so.
Glass Rebel
Member
X is pretty unpredictable. Is it possible to market that game as something with larger appeal like Zelda? Skyward Sword didn't sell gangbusters but there's still some strength behind it. I guess they could do it if there's a good multiplayer component but they haven't been good at pushing new franchises aimed at the enthusiast gamers.
Wind Waker HD should be out in 2014 as well, however who knows how well that's going to do. The 2.5m OoT3D did were pretty good after all. Animal Crossing won't do well without a price-drop IMO. That audience isn't going to touch the Wii U otherwise. The other stuff I don't see doing more than a splash.
I've said in another thread that Nintendo should try to put an upscaled version of Pokémon XY on Wii U just for the hell of it. It's not going to cannibalize 3DS sales anyway, might as well try and give the Wii U something worthwhile.
I think they've come to terms that the 3DS won't repeat the success of the NDS with smartphones and tablets controlling the portable space. Pokémon will sell well and get the device in more people's hands but you're right that it doesn't automatically improve the market. We'll just have to see I guess.
Edit: And let's not forget Smash Bros. which should sell considerably better on 3DS.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Their initial targets seemed to be relying on NSMBU as the big mover, and NintendoLand as the slow burner. With 57,000 WiiU's sold in January... I think it's safe to say they have limited appeal alone. I really don't think they saw this coming. I didn't. I thought the appeal of HD 2D Mario alone would move close to 20 million units.
I think I may have oversold the series. With a buttload of other software 2D Mario is a hook series... but WiiU has a limited library. And definitely no stand out title as of yet. Closest is ZombiU.
And mileage may vary on zombies. No, I really do think they thought NSMBU alone (with NintendoLand being a slow burner) would propel WiiU to their initial projections.
Well, yes, a price cut would certainly help 3DS selling even more, since it has an already fantastic lineup filled with good / big games saleswise. Last year 3DS lacked continuity in significant releases and didn't have a strong release for the Holiday.
Most important releases in 2012
February: Resident Evil: Revelations - M&S at Olympic Games
March: Kid Icarus Uprising
May: Mario Tennis
July: KH3D
August: NSMB2
September: Angry Birds Trilogy
October: Layton
November: Paper Mario, Epic Mickey PoI
Most important releases in 2013 so far
February: Fire Emblem Awakening
March: Castlevania, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate, Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon
April: Lego City Undercover The Chase Begins
June: Animal Crossing New Leaf
Summer: Mario Golf, Mario & Luigi 4, DKCR3D
October: Pokémon X & Y
This lineup is already much better than 2012's and, above all, more costant: there are continously good releases with good or great potential. And we don't know about other Fall / Holiday games yet (aside from Nintendo, we can perfectly expect SA3 given the rumours and the next M&S given the...logic). It's a much better lineup, and just thanks to this the console will sell certainly better than last year (I think it'll have its best year in US too). If they cut the price too they'll have their best US year by far.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's nearly the end of February. They're probably still a bit under 1M sold in the US - there'll probably still be 200K+ in the channel come end of March. There'll be even more sitting in European warehouses.
There's pretty much nothing I can see that they could do would get them to reach even their revised target (unless something like Wii Fit U takes off like rocket again, which I'm personally not expecting). Even a deep $100 price cut wouldn't get them there, imo.
They, like a lot of their fans thought that:
- the touchscreen
- NSMBU
wind waker hd should be out this fall. this is because iwata or aonuma said to expect it this fall. it'll be one of those games that doesn't do anything big, but gets the backbone core audience involved with the console. it's the sort of game bayonetta 2 or rayman legends is, except on a much larger scale.
it would go against every fiber of their being, but a free to play (or at least f2p online) 3d, free-roaming pokemon game would be a huge deal. people have wanted that since the n64. hell, i think they're missing an opportunity at not making the wii u the mmorpg console.
He sounded confident to reach that target. I think its optimistic but iwata knows in detail how many games he can afford to churn out and how much of the price he can cut.
Mikey Jr.
Member
The thing that baffles me is how retailers seemed to be supply constrained on the game. Even amazon on their site said they were restocking in 2-3 weeks yet the game sold "only" 100k.
Anyways, i think it will sell 500k eventually. Dont forget its also on psn. So yeah, for a brand new ip, a jrpg, and on 1 system, i think it did very well. Ive seen games do worse and get sequels.
I well i think they had an optimistic scenario where NSMBU alone would propel hardware but i also think that they had a scenario where that doesnt pan out. They dont have anything until march 2013 they must have had a plab B in case things dont catch fire immediately with such a fragile launch.
Also the DS one did well and the Ps3 one in Japan did well too
Glass Rebel
Member
This fall already? I thought 2014 at the earliest but that's better than nothing. Second half of 2013 with Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's new game shouldn't do that badly. If this doesn't help against the other consoles, I don't know what will.
With their current mentality it'd take years before Nintendo tries a large-scale F2P game. Any other company would have done it years ago but Nintendo has gotten so conservative, by the time they're ready to do something it might be too late. Pokémon X&Y will have DLC/microtransactions though. It's bound to happen.
Let's hope for him that he reaches his targets then. I honestly don't see the Wii U situation drastically improving here.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Which is the point I was making.
Launch of the "it" title of the generation is the only thing that could work in coming close to their initial projection.
Something they hoped NintendoLand would be (which is crazy when you think about it). The sad thing is they apparently missed the mark so badly that the system had a Dreamcastian January.
I seriously cannot stress enough how bad that 57,000 unit number is. How it coming so early in the systems life shows nothing but badness ahead. The GCN had a better first January. So did the Dreamcast. People were pissing themselves over the PS3's first year June. At around 90,000 units. Notorious deadspots in console hardware uptake (unless you're the Wii).
Maybe it's hyperbolic, but I can't see any scenario for the year that really fixes what is obviously broken. Software will help marginally. It always does. But there's a core disinterest in the platform that should be noticeable by such a drastic drop-off. Me thinks the lack of a proper hook, lack of defining software, and "iffy" word of mouth have put off any interest that might have been there.
This is a bad place to be.
D.Lo
Member
Damn, Wii U is screwed.
I'm feeling like there's nothing else Nintendo could do. Pokemon MMO? That's a card they've never played.
Nintendo's also not Sony, a massive conglomerate dead-set on pushing forward losing billions despite it making no financial sense to do so. And they have no movie format or living-room domination agendas to pursue.
Maybe Wii U can be a Dreamcast that keeps going for longer? A Gamecube? Xbox 1?
I'm feeling like there's nothing else Nintendo could do. Pokemon MMO? That's a card they've never played.
Yep. But where does it go from here? Nintendo's not Sega, who were already near-death at the DC's launch. Nintendo's coming off a generation win, the biggest selling device ever and another big hit handheld (at least a massive hit in Japan).
Nintendo's also not Sony, a massive conglomerate dead-set on pushing forward losing billions despite it making no financial sense to do so. And they have no movie format or living-room domination agendas to pursue.
Maybe Wii U can be a Dreamcast that keeps going for longer? A Gamecube? Xbox 1?
It was announced with the game announcement. I think it is funny how they would have gathered so much more hype if they had announced windwaker HD last e3
While i agree that the numbers are beyond bad the main problem of the wiiu is that its a nintendo platform that only has 2 nintendo gakes so far and will stay that way for the first 4 month of its existence.
If the problem is lack of nintendo games nintendo can do something about it by releasing games as fast as possible. I really hope this triggers mintendo to buy more studios. They have the money but not the people.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think that's the key. And I had a feeling that the interest wouldn't be there around their first unveiling over a year and a half ago. Anecdotal, but I was having coffee with a friend that week: late 20s, female, upper middle-class, a very typical "casual" gamer, had enjoyed things like SingStar, Wii Sports, had an NDS. And was entirely uninterested in the Wii U and its "hook." Other conversations also led me to think "This will be no Wii," but I never expected it to fall this much, this fast.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think making the first console standard Pokemon game could help.
If forced to predict, I'd guess that the Wii U will end-up being GameCube 2.0. Nintendo will continue to make games for it, but very few third-party games of high quality will make it to the platform.
Nintendo's conservative business model will help in this situation: the console will be either very mildly profitable or a small net loser, but nothing world-shattering in either direction for Nintendo's overall financial health.
{If you look in my post history, among the very amusing things I say is that "I really, really appreciate Nintendo's sense of self-preservation." This is one such scenario where that sentiment comes into effect.
}I really, really hope that they consider going the hybrid route from here. Third parties aren't interested, and I don't think that Nintendo has enough development resources to adequately support two machines. Typically, their portables seem to feast on first-party releases while their consoles get morsels here and there. But with only one platform to support, the threat of game release droughts would be greatly minimized, and the need for third-party support would be greatly reduced.
Actually, in a fitting way, the Wii U may be a step in this direction. Imagine a portable (a tablet, perhaps?) with the processing/computation/etc inside - and then a dock that connects it to the TV. I'd love to see them give it a try.
MikeE21286
Member
They should absolutely do this.
There should be a Pokemon game for WiiU that interacts with your 3DS the same way Monster Hunter Ultimate does. Dual SKU
Maybe Pokemon Z?
At the same time games is all they really have. Sony has other business but nintendo just doesnt.
Manmademan
Member
The PS3 had an obvious pricing issue that was responsible for it's slow uptake. The WiiU's problems are at a more fundamental level and no where near as easily fixable as dropping the price $150.
I agree with you that nintendo is in a terrible place with the console. The nintendo hardcore will pick up the latest mario and zelda titles as usual, but being really optimistic this maxes out at 20 or 30 million. Beyond that? They abandoned the ps3/360 audience entirely, and the non gamers that picked up the WiiU aren't interested.
It will take an absolutely heroic marketing effort to get the thing on the right track, and i'm not sure nintendo has it in them. Aggressive marketing has never really been their strong point.
Pachterballs
Banned
Ninokuni was day date up on psn, so it might have maybe sold a bit better. Does NPD include digital sales from psn?
Really? I thought the PS3 version of Ni no Kuni did horrendously in Japan.
They had 3000 employees in 2007, and have over 5000 today. That's some serious growth.
when it comes down to it its all about the price. If nintendo manages to do a 150$ pricedrop with good games comming out the thing will sell solely because it wont be much of an investment for people while having the newest wii fit or mario kart on it. What more fundamental is there? 300$ was way too high and thats the main reason why they are failing (alongside with no nintendo games).
thats the big question. Nintendo has succesfully catered to that audience in the past but has abandoned that audience on their platform circa 2010. If they can win them back I think they will be fine but that will take a lot of marketing effort
Still not enough. They have positioned themselves into a market that is only served by them. They need to be the capcom, square enix, bandai namco, ubisoft, activision and ea of their own platform.
If they can ensure about one or two games per month for each of their platforms internally they will do fine even without much third party support.
Nope.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
There is nothing about the Wii U hardware or controller that suggests they can undercut the 360 Arcade in price without taking a loss.
Nintendo is stuck at 250+ at least this year.
Mikey Jr.
Member
I think i read somewhere in the thread that it sold around 100k in japan alone aswell. The developer said that they would wait and see how it does oversees in whether to make a sequel or not, so we have to exclude japan.
But yeah, 112k in na, #1 game in uk and accross Europe, and npd doesnt track psn sales. So purely from a western standpoint, i would say it probably sold 250k altogether? Add the japan 100k, and another year and it will probably most def crack 500k. That my guesstimate anyways.
They could also try to take the loss in order to improve the userbase. With higher userbase nintendo directly profits as its their games that sell on their platforms