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Official November 2007 NPD Software Prediction Thread

R

radjago

Member
[360 Assassin's Creed] 480K
[360 Halo 3] 290K
[360 Mass Effect] 230K
[360 Rock Band] 240K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 140K
[PS3 Rock Band] 90K
[PS3 Uncharted] 130K
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant] 75K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 950K
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 120K

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 850K
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 135K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 190K
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 210K
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+] 80K

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 360K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 260K
[PSP Silent Hill Origins] 70K
[WII Guitar Hero III] 300K
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 150K
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
[360 Assassin's Creed] 378k
[360 Halo 3] 414k
[360 Mass Effect] 212k
[360 Rock Band] 187k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 166k
[PS3 Rock Band] 92k
[PS3 Uncharted] 147k
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant] 135k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 777k
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 190k

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 567k
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 258k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 333k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 212k
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+] 69k

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 387k
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 456k
[PSP Silent Hill Origins] 57k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 355k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 242k
 
D

donny2112

Member
Just over 6 hours left to predict! :)

Here's the format again for easy access:

Format:

1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed]
[360 Halo 3]
[360 Mass Effect]
[360 Rock Band]
[PS3 Assassin's Creed]
[PS3 Rock Band]
[PS3 Uncharted]
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy]
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella]

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4]
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings]
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass]
[PS3 Call of Duty 4]
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III]
[PS2 Guitar Hero III]
[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
[WII Guitar Hero III]
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics]
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
1 hour left!



1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed] 425,000
[360 Halo 3] 410,000
[360 Mass Effect] 258,000
[360 Rock Band] 185,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 180,000
[PS3 Rock Band] 57,000
[PS3 Uncharted] 155,000
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant] 78,000
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 920,000
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 185,000

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 925,000
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 170,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 285,000
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 220,000
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+] 98,000

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 310,000
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 460,000
[PSP Silent Hill Origins] 67,000
[WII Guitar Hero III] 210,000
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 255,000
 
D

donny2112

Member
GAF Averages:

1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 945.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 757.1K
3. 360 Assassin's Creed - 519.8K
4. 360 Halo 3 - 375.4K
5. 360 Guitar Hero III - 363.1K
6. PS2 Guitar Hero III - 360.0K
7. 360 Mass Effect - 330.8K
8. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 281.4K
9. WII Guitar Hero III - 277.0K
10. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 240.1K
11. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 232.4K
12. PS3 Assassin's Creed - 212.6K
13. WII Resident Evil: Umbrella - 201.4K
14. 360 Rock Band - 180.6K
15. NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings - 168.8K
16. PS3 Uncharted - 146.2K
17. WII Fire Emblem: Radiant - 99.0K
18. PSP MGS: Portable Ops+ - 95.7K
19. PSP Silent Hill Origins - 77.3K
20. PS3 Rock Band - 76.5K


* Rock Band bomba? Only 257K predicted, combined, between PS3/360. Compare that to over 600K in a week for Guitar Hero III on those same systems.
* Both PSP titles predicted to finish under 100K. What will it take for a game to sell gangbusters again on the PSP?
* Call of Duty 4 predicted to sell 1 million combined between PS3/360.
* Last year's Top 10 (thanks RBH) had #10 selling 206K. Wii Play will almost certainly be in the full Top 10 this November, so we're predicting at least 277K for #10. Very healthy growth yoy just looking at the top 10, if we're correct.
 
P

pooteeweet

Banned
donny2112 said:
GAF Averages:

1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 945.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 757.1K
3. 360 Assassin's Creed - 519.8K
4. 360 Halo 3 - 375.4K
5. 360 Guitar Hero III - 363.1K
6. PS2 Guitar Hero III - 360.0K
7. 360 Mass Effect - 330.8K
8. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 281.4K
9. WII Guitar Hero III - 277.0K
10. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 240.1K
11. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 232.4K
12. PS3 Assassin's Creed - 212.6K
13. WII Resident Evil: Umbrella - 201.4K
14. 360 Rock Band - 180.6K
15. NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings - 168.8K
16. PS3 Uncharted - 146.2K
17. WII Fire Emblem: Radiant - 99.0K
18. PSP MGS: Portable Ops+ - 95.7K
19. PSP Silent Hill Origins - 77.3K
20. PS3 Rock Band - 76.5K


* Rock Band bomba? Only 257K predicted, combined, between PS3/360. Compare that to over 600K in a week for Guitar Hero III on those same systems.
* Both PSP titles predicted to finish under 100K. What will it take for a game to sell gangbusters again on the PSP?
* Call of Duty 4 predicted to sell 1 million combined between PS3/360.
* Last year's Top 10 (thanks RBH) had #10 selling 206K. Wii Play will almost certainly be in the full Top 10 this November, so we're predicting at least 277K for #10. Very healthy growth yoy just looking at the top 10, if we're correct.
Click to expand...

1) All indications are the Rock Band sold what it shipped, they just didn't ship very many, and didn't do a very good job of restocking.
2) No surprise here, the surprise would be a PSP title actually selling well.
3) As pointed out earlier in the thread, there are over 1 million users on XBL alone. 1 million combined is hardly surprising.
 
D

donny2112

Member
I won't be around when the NPD is released this evening, so the software point rankings will probably be posted later tonight. Feel free to discuss in the meantime, though, and here's an analyst comparison to chew on.

Note: When released for 360 and PS3, format is <360>/<PS3> (<combined>)
Code: 
                      Pachter      simExchange             NeoGAF
Rock Band          */* (600K)    152K/*    (*)   181K/ 77K (257K)
Assassin's Creed   */* (400K)       */272K (*)   520K/213K (632K)
Call of Duty 4     */* (800K)+   833K/*    (*)   757K/240K (957K)
Guitar Hero III    */*(1700K)++     */*    (*)   363K/*   (1000K)+++

Super Mario Galaxy          *            1270K              945K
Mario & Sonic               *             242K              232K
Mass Effect                 *             328K              331K

+   - May include DS and PC versions
++  - 360, PS2, PS3, and Wii
+++ - 360, PS2, and Wii
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
donny2112 said:
* Rock Band bomba? Only 257K predicted, combined, between PS3/360. Compare that to over 600K in a week for Guitar Hero III on those same systems.
Click to expand...

Supply constrained for Black Friday.

What EA should do is get together with Sony and do a Rock Band + Slim PS2 bundle for $250.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
What I've got right now.

1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed] 980k
[360 Halo 3] 387K
[360 Mass Effect] 473K
[360 Rock Band] 296K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 377K
[PS3 Rock Band] 70k
[PS3 Uncharted] 117K
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1.12 million
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 120.7K

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 1.57 million
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 48.6K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 226.5K
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 444K
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 367.2K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 967K
[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
[WII Guitar Hero III] 426K
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 328.3K
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
sonycowboy said:
What I've got right now.

1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed] 980k
[360 Halo 3] 387K
[360 Mass Effect] 473K
[360 Rock Band] 296K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 377K
[PS3 Rock Band] 70k
[PS3 Uncharted] 117K
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1.12 million
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 120.7K

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 1.57 million
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 48.6K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 226.5K
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 444K
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 367.2K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 967K
[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
[WII Guitar Hero III] 426K
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 328.3K
Click to expand...
Didn't Frazier state that it sold 312k?

I think everyone failed at software prediction, the gaps are huge.
 
C

Chumly

Member
sonycowboy said:
What I've got right now.

1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed] 980k
[360 Halo 3] 387K
[360 Mass Effect] 473K
[360 Rock Band] 296K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 377K
[PS3 Rock Band] 70k
[PS3 Uncharted] 117K
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1.12 million
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 120.7K

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 1.57 million
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 48.6K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 226.5K
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 444K
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 367.2K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 967K
[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
[WII Guitar Hero III] 426K
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 328.3K
Click to expand...
:( we knew most of the numbers....Fire emblem is probably the most interesting one not listed.
 
B

Brakara

Member
sionyboy said:
Wasn't there a special edition as well?
Click to expand...

Too much of a coincidence if it had sold exactly as much as SMG. :)

But you have a valid point. Do the sales figures include all the limited editions out there? That goes for AC, as well as CoD4, Mass Effect, etc.
 
Randy Lanzarote

Randy Lanzarote

Member
Brakara said:
Too much of a coincidence if it had sold exactly as much as SMG. :)

But you have a valid point. Do the sales figures include all the limited editions out there? That goes for AC, as well as CoD4, Mass Effect, etc.
Click to expand...

I think they do, Halo 3 numbers back in September included all 3 SKUs, I'm assuming that it happens with most games. One notable exception would be Guitar Hero last month, I recall there being separate number for the guitar bundle and standalone game.
 
D

donny2112

Member
sionyboy said:
I think they do, Halo 3 numbers back in September included all 3 SKUs, I'm assuming that it happens with most games. One notable exception would be Guitar Hero last month, I recall there being separate number for the guitar bundle and standalone game.
Click to expand...

The note at the beginning of the thread said that the prediction results would be the combined versions. If sonycowboy had access to the separate SKU data, that should be what he posted.
 
A

apujanata

Member
sonycowboy said:
What I've got right now.

1-10

[360 Assassin's Creed] 980k
[360 Halo 3] 387K
[360 Mass Effect] 473K
[360 Rock Band] 296K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 377K
[PS3 Rock Band] 70k
[PS3 Uncharted] 117K
[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1.12 million
[WII Resident Evil: Umbrella] 120.7K

11-15

[360 Call of Duty 4] 1.57 million
[NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings] 48.6K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 226.5K
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 444K
[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[360 Guitar Hero III] 367.2K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 967K
[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
[WII Guitar Hero III] 426K
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 328.3K
Click to expand...

I need you (or your NPD contact) to deliver on your promise of Fire Emblem #, sonycowboy. If not, as Fire Emblem enthusiast, I will stalk you. :D
 
D

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy said:
1-10

[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant]

11-15

[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+]

16-20

[PSP Silent Hill Origins]
Click to expand...

While waiting on the final three to (hopefully) come, I can go ahead and do a semi-points ranking. This is just the percentage correct (0-100%) * 10 points per game. Maximum: 170 points.

Semi-point November Software Results

1. DayShallCome - 113.43
2. zsidane - 111.52
3. pooteeweet - 109.38
4. dammitmattt - 107.4
5. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 107.16
6. GAF Average - 107.07
7. RBH - 106.54
8. radjago - 106.17
9. gollumsluvslave - 105.52
10. Crusade - 105.35
11. andy_lhc - 104.7
12. C4Lukins - 102.99
13. SPEA - 102.58
14. Stopsign - 102.42
15. sonycowboy - 102.16
16. boontje - 101.89
17. beermonkey@tehbias - 101.71
18. kefka2030 - 101.61
19. Ganondorf>Link - 100.9
20. donny2112 - 100.73
21. megaman511 - 100.46
22. amtentori - 98.9
23. Chumly - 98.82
24. Brakara - 98.75
25. Hammer24 - 98.42
26. Olaeh - 98.26
27. BuzzJive - 97.42
28. nextgeneration - 97.25
29. SIP YEK NOD - 96.45
30. Belgorim - 94.56
31. davepoobond - 94.52
32. rostocker - 94.09
33. DevelopmentArrested - 93.93
34. rikitikitik - 92.3
35. Rocksteady33 - 92.26
36. DefectiveReject - 91.28
37. goompapa - 91.26
38. Jewbacca - 90.56
39. Nolan. - 89.43
40. GhaleonEB - 86.09
41. starship - 79.37
42. perfectchaos007 - 77.55
43. kenta - 75.88


The top finisher in September and October got ~80%. The top finisher this month got ~70%. December is going to be a hoot.

Congratulations, DayShallCome! :D

I won't combine these with the previous month rankings, for now, since they use a different point system. If it turns out that we can only get these results, then I'll try to adjust the point system to reflect getting 17 games.

Thanks, sonycowboy, for your help! :)

pooteeweet said:
When do the results typically get posted? My first software prediction thread, so pardon my ignorance.
Click to expand...

How ... about ... now? :)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Nolan. said:
I beat Ghaleon!, seriously though i'm pleased I even made the list.
Click to expand...
Beating Ghaleon is not a major accomplishment these days, alas. This month it just means you were not starship, perfectchaos007, or kenta. :lol
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Eh? 14th isn't bad I guess. Considering this is my first "official" software prediction thread. I normally just throw in some software predictions with my hardware predictions. Also, I beat sonycowboy :)

Edit: It seems CoD4 360 is what threw everyone way off.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
31. davepoobond - 94.52


considering that the highest player got 20 points more than myself, i think that mostly everyone did about the same as far as the points thing goes...


but how many points would a person that got every single number right get?
 
B

Brakara

Member
Hey, #24! A nice improvement from the previous months where I've been at the bottom (in GhaleonEB territory). December will be horrible though.
 
G

gollumsluvslave

Member
Wowser, I did way better in Software than Hardware :lol

COD 4 and Assasin's Creed on 360 being my big underestimates.

I had a funny feeling I would be low on COD 4, but I would never have thought Assasin's Creed would do a million on 360, mainly because the marketing was so heavily skewed to the PS3.


December is going to be a hoot.
Click to expand...

:lol Indeed. I thought November was reasonably easy on Hardware and Software, and was way out :lol

December is going to be a crapshoot :lol
 
A

apujanata

Member
Donny2112, sonycowboy has updated his post #54, instead of post #65, so you might have missed this data :

sonycowboy said:
1-10

[WII Fire Emblem: Radiant] 78,000

11-15

[PSP MGS: Portable Ops+] 98,000

16-20

[PSP Silent Hill Origins] 67,000
Click to expand...
 
D

donny2112

Member
apujanata said:
Donny2112, sonycowboy has updated his post #54, instead of post #65, so you might have missed this data :
Click to expand...

Those were his predictions for the month. Notice the time he posted them and the lack of an "Edited" note beneath.
 
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