I figure 1-2 exclusives for me a year for a total of 6/12 or 8/16 depending on if the generation lasts 6 or 8 years.
Even if new consoles get released every 7 years, Sony home consoles get supported during 10+ years.
The thing is that Sony lacks heavily in Japenese 1st party games department, if they won't do anything about it they will start loosing their ADN in the long run, and i don't feel this will improve with Hermen Hulst in charge as this guy seems only interested into porting playstation games on PC, this guy should go work on valve or Epic, he is right now at Sony in the wrong place obviously.
Lies.
Sony's sales and quality never relied on 1st party Japanese games department. 1st party game are a small part of the total PlayStation game same sales (they get their most money from 3rd party games) and even inside the Sony internal games the top sales and quality mostly came from the west.
They have Polyphony and Asobi/Japan Studio plus got PS4 2nd or 3rd party exclusive from basically every known 3rd party Japanese publisher or studio. They said they will have more exclusives than ever and that are specially interested on Japanese ones both in 2nd and 3rd party sides. Plus they are working on acquisitions and they are rumored to be negotiating the Arc System Works acquisition.
Their first party games are selling better than ever and are getting more GOTY awards than ever and release every year more green metacritic and GOTY candidate exclusives than Nintendo and Microsoft combined. And are growing their internal 1st party teams and 2nd party management (XDEV) team.
They are also selling consoles at gaming history record levels (plus PS4 for what more games has been sold) and are selling out every new shipment in a few minutes even if we're in the middle of a huge global pandemic, economic crysis and chip sortage. Hermen and the PlayStation team are doing a fantastic job and are doing the proper investments to improve in the near future.
Those technical showcases usually come from Naughty Dog and SSM. Naughty Dog are already working on last of us remake and last of us multiplayer right now. Sony Santa Monica are currently working on God of War. Insomniac's next spiderman is possibly a next gen exclusive but that is still a maybe, plus they have just released ratchet and miles morales games. Sucker Punch just released got last year and expansion will be released this year so maybe they have started on something new right now. I think our best bet is the Bend Studio creating a next gen only game.
Guerrilla and Insomniac are also top togs tech wise. Look at the Horizon 2 trailers or Ratchet. They are the best looking games we saw until now, even if Horizon 2 will be crossgen.
The TLOU remake has been mostly made on Sony San Diego new studio with ND first only overviewing and on the later parts taking the lead to complete it. ND was also working with an Unchated spinoff with Bend that we don't know if got cancelled or not when Bend completed their work on it and moved to focus on their new IP. SSM has been working with another game in addition to GoWR.
We also know all these teams have been growing in the recent years, and that Sony will spend over $300M to grow their internal teams this year, which means they plan to more or less double their global 1st party gamedev manpower in a single year, which pretty likely means several studios will get an additional big team.
The whole team was working on these games, they were not divided into making 2 games for studios.
We know from job offer that Guerrilla has been working on a AAA game with at least a multiplayer part since 2018 until now that isn't Horizon 2, so they have at least 2 teams.
We know Sucker Punch has been growing, that they are hiring and that Sony will spend this year over $300M this year alone to grow the internal 1st party gamedev manpower they had months ago. So studios like Sucker Punch may have a 2nd team or pretty likely will have it very soon.